Honeybadger's picks

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  • Honeybadger44
    SBR MVP
    • 01-03-14
    • 1675

    #106
    Jankovic ML @2.00 Pinnacle - 4 units

    Kuznetsova did play some good tennis lately, but I think that is not enough to put her as equal to a very good top 10 player, like Jelena Jankovic, speaking of odds. She is a good shotmaker, but she will be forced to play on a very high level today and show some serious mental toughness, unlike the final match of Oeiras, where she crumbled under pressure against Suarez Navarro. Jankovic is extremly good from the baseline, defending and making good shots and I don't believe Kuznetsova can beat her in her own game. Also, Jelena likes this tournament, as she is a former champion here.


    Lepchenko +3 @1.90 Pinnacle - 2 units

    As I wrote before, odds on Stephens matches can fluctate quite a lot from week to week. I think that here we have a case, where with couple of wins, she is getting the trust back, from the casual tennis bettors, and imho, value is on Lepchenko's side. Of course, value is important, but I also like to have a good case behind that side, that she can really win or cover the line. Lepchenko can definitely do that. She knows how to play on clay. She is using her left handede playing style well, to make her opponents uncomfortable. She counter punches well fromt he defense and she is not that bad at serving. She can make it interesting here, at least, if not win the match.


    Haas -3,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units

    I am aware that Haas has not been that good lately and was pretty inconsistant. Also, loss against Sijsling in Madrid last week is not in favor of this bet. Still, I think that Sijsling really enjoyed that playing conditions in Madrid and he will have a lot of difficulties, keeping up with Haas, here in Rome. Surface is too slow for him, wind is messing up with his serve and I believ that he can't win a lot of points from Tommy in longer rallies on ths surface, while approaching the net is not that great of idea here, because the surface slows down the ball quite a lot and makes it easier for opponent to hit a passing shot.
    Comment
    • blstrick5
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-12-13
      • 561

      #107
      3 for 3, nice job.
      Comment
      • Honeybadger44
        SBR MVP
        • 01-03-14
        • 1675

        #108
        Thanks! I needed this bounce back, after that ugly performance last thursday...
        Comment
        • kenz
          SBR MVP
          • 12-09-12
          • 4879

          #109
          Comment
          • Honeybadger44
            SBR MVP
            • 01-03-14
            • 1675

            #110
            Originally posted by kenz
            Comment
            • paulnikolo
              SBR High Roller
              • 03-30-10
              • 198

              #111
              any leans for today hb?
              Comment
              • Honeybadger44
                SBR MVP
                • 01-03-14
                • 1675

                #112
                No solid picks yet. I have to do some "homework" first and then I will let you guys know... Maybe the strongest lean at the moment is Ivanovic over, but that means nothing. I might wind up on the completely other side, when I think it through.
                Comment
                • paulnikolo
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 03-30-10
                  • 198

                  #113
                  will wait for it hb. thanks! hope to see some ml bet from you!
                  Comment
                  • Honeybadger44
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-03-14
                    • 1675

                    #114
                    Ferrer -3,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units

                    I have a feeling that Gulbis is slowly but steadily returning to his old ways, just like Fabio Fognini. He is loosing focus on court way too easy, mostly over some unimportant things. That is resulting into more UE, which is a very dangerous thing in his game, where it is a thin line between genius and a lunatic, if I am allowed to say it that way. If he countinue to do that, he will get punished severly against Ferrer, who is playing some great tennis in last 10 days or so.


                    Lepchenko 1st set @6.87 - 1 unit

                    This is a type of bet which Hardcoar loves to make and I decided to "borrow" this method here, as I think it holds a lot of value. I have been high on Lepchenko since the start of the clay season. She is playing some decent tennis and what I noticed in couple of matches, is that she tends to come out of the blocks real strong. If Serena comes out on court, like she doesn't care for this match, Varvara has chance to steal 1st set from her.
                    Comment
                    • aussiebet
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-16-13
                      • 179

                      #115
                      Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                      Ferrer -3,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units

                      I have a feeling that Gulbis is slowly but steadily returning to his old ways, just like Fabio Fognini. He is loosing focus on court way too easy, mostly over some unimportant things. That is resulting into more UE, which is a very dangerous thing in his game, where it is a thin line between genius and a lunatic, if I am allowed to say it that way. If he countinue to do that, he will get punished severly against Ferrer, who is playing some great tennis in last 10 days or so.


                      Lepchenko 1st set @6.87 - 1 unit

                      This is a type of bet which Hardcoar loves to make and I decided to "borrow" this method here, as I think it holds a lot of value. I have been high on Lepchenko since the start of the clay season. She is playing some decent tennis and what I noticed in couple of matches, is that she tends to come out of the blocks real strong. If Serena comes out on court, like she doesn't care for this match, Varvara has chance to steal 1st set from her.
                      Nice analysis on the Lepchenko bet. Im thinking of tailing. good value.
                      Comment
                      • kenz
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-09-12
                        • 4879

                        #116
                        I dont like Lepchenko. But odds speak for itself, me not liking is not so special BOL
                        Comment
                        • ManeOnFire
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 05-13-14
                          • 851

                          #117
                          Good.
                          Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                          Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

                          Pennetta +1,5 (games) @1,91 Pinnacle - 5 units

                          Mathieu -3,5 @1,83 Pinnacle - 5 units (better odds can be found, shopping around)

                          Ivanovic/Goerges over 20,5 @1,90 Bet365 - 4 units

                          Verdasco ML @1,99 Pinnacle - 2 units

                          Sharapova -5 @1.79 Pinnacle - 4 units

                          Giraldo +4,5 @1.83 Bet365 - 3 units

                          Jankovic +1,5 games @1.81 Pinnacle - 4 units

                          Zahlavova Strycova ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 5 units

                          Sousa -2 @1,96 Pinnacle - 5 units

                          Suarez Navarro +2,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 4 units

                          Jovanovski ML @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

                          record: 13-8-0
                          Hit rate: 61,9%
                          Staked: 77u
                          Yield: +22,08u
                          ROI: +28,67%






                          Comment
                          • blstrick5
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 11-12-13
                            • 561

                            #118
                            Tailed you on Ferrer. Thanks for another easy winner!
                            Comment
                            • Honeybadger44
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-03-14
                              • 1675

                              #119
                              Radwanska ML @1.74 Pinnacle - 3 units

                              Yeah, Jankovic has been pretty good so far in the tournament. She dominated both Kuznetsova and Pennetta and that is why she is valued so much by the books here. Bit overvalued, if you ask me. Not in the way, where I would think that she doesn't deserve the credits for last two wins, because she does. She outplayed both her opponents. It is just that, when matching up against Radwanska, she will have to do completely different things to win, then she did in previous rounds. Only thing she had to do in previous two matches, is to be solid from the baseline, wher she is most comfortable at. Now, she will be forced to do more to win points and be more aggressive. Radwanska has great shot placment, which makes it difficult for her opponents to build a good point against her. Combine that with her high tennis IQ, great movement and defense and you can see that there is a big challenge in front of Jelena today. Imho, key against Aga is to close out at the net as often as possible, when you get ahead during the point. Jelena is not very comfortable at doing that and I believe that decreases her chances even more. Radwanska @1.74 , I'll take it.
                              Comment
                              • kenz
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-09-12
                                • 4879

                                #120
                                Good write-up, agree with your points.

                                Did not like Jankovic against Pennetta yesterday. I had a heavy 2nd set live bet on JJ but 7th game in 2nd set was tough to watch, it was very crucial JJ held it. I postponed gym for at least half an hour Also she blew a 2-0 lead to double broken and then re-break to 3-3. JJ was pure baseline yesterday, did not try many winners too. She needs opponents to make mistakes

                                On it to win it
                                Comment
                                • Honeybadger44
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-03-14
                                  • 1675

                                  #121
                                  Thanks.

                                  Yeah, her focus dropped little bit in second set and she almost allowed Pennetta to get back into the match, but other than that, I think she was pretty good.
                                  Yes, as you said, she plays in a way, where she needs opponents to "help her out" little bit. I don't see Radwanska being that naive. I am only bit worried about Aga's serve. Low percentage of 1st serve could bring a lot of those loopy second serves, which are easy to attack and then she will have to face break points, but other then that, I really like Radwanska here. Especially at this price
                                  Comment
                                  • kenz
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-09-12
                                    • 4879

                                    #122
                                    Actually JJ might be a tough matchup too. There wont be easy points for both. Giving a second thought I may also go for over.

                                    BOL
                                    Comment
                                    • Honeybadger44
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-03-14
                                      • 1675

                                      #123
                                      Jelena not cooling off, just yet... Sorry guys.
                                      Comment
                                      • blstrick5
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-12-13
                                        • 561

                                        #124
                                        It's all good, you can't win them all.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hardcoar
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-17-13
                                          • 15606

                                          #125
                                          I can certainly lose them all lately.

                                          Keep up the good work Badger!
                                          Comment
                                          • Honeybadger44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-03-14
                                            • 1675

                                            #126
                                            Thanks for the encouragging word, guys!

                                            Hardcoar, you were just bit unlucky lately, with all those big dawgs loosing narrowly. Those were very good bets and making such bets, you will come out on top, one way or another. Lucky or unlucky. So, just keep them coming...
                                            Comment
                                            • Honeybadger44
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-03-14
                                              • 1675

                                              #127
                                              Ivanovic +5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                              Ana playing some of her best tennis at the moment. She improved her serve, since working with the new coach. She has more confidence in her backhand, which has become real weapon. Overall, she is a better player. I was not surprised that she had some difficulties in her yesterday's match, after that big win against Sharapova in R16. Suarez Navarro is very tricky to play against on clay, and I think that Ana prefers playing against opponents, which will exchange powerfull, flat shots from the baseline, just like Serena should today. Ivanovic is playing well, very confident at the moment and the line is high enough for me.
                                              Comment
                                              • JustSomeCash
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-26-13
                                                • 561

                                                #128
                                                Good luck B! love this one,til now 'shaq&' didnt faced against any quality in Rome, time to make her work a little harder for the win.
                                                Comment
                                                • Honeybadger44
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-03-14
                                                  • 1675

                                                  #129
                                                  Djokovic +2 @1.89 Pinnacle - 4 units

                                                  In past years, Djokovic was pretty much the only player, who could regulard beat Rafael Nadal, even on his favorite surface - clay. He simply has the game, to neutralise Rafa's strongest weapons. Looking only on this tournament, both guys played many three setters, quite surprisingly. I've seen Djokovic doing this so many times, and I am not falling for this trick anymore. Playing just enough to win in earlier stages, not playing really well at all, and then suddendly bringing his A game in the finals. While on the other side, Rafa was geniuenly struggling this week, except yesterday against Dimitrov. He is vulenrable at the moment and I don't see Novak as a dog here.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Honeybadger44
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-03-14
                                                    • 1675

                                                    #130
                                                    Koukalova +4 @1.90 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                    I have been looking for information, if Koukalova is injured or something, because I don't understand these odds and can't believe how much "love" is Hercog getting here. As I wrote before, she does not have that clay court game anymore, but relys more on her serve and power on her groundstrokes now, which makes her bit overrated on clay imho. Koukalova had bad results lately, but I still think this line is a overreaction...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SirtySree
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-13
                                                      • 2364

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                                                      Koukalova +4 @1.90 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                      I have been looking for information, if Koukalova is injured or something, because I don't understand these odds and can't believe how much "love" is Hercog getting here. As I wrote before, she does not have that clay court game anymore, but relys more on her serve and power on her groundstrokes now, which makes her bit overrated on clay imho. Koukalova had bad results lately, but I still think this line is a overreaction...
                                                      The divorce seemingly resulting in the bad results lately as the public have been betting against her since it happened. Also the H2H record would also make the public jump on Hercog. I think the opening line was great value on Hercog but the line movement has been ridiculous and value is on Koukalova now. I got on Hercog early but might chuck in a bet now on the +4.5 also to possibly break even at worse or double up essentially.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Honeybadger44
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-03-14
                                                        • 1675

                                                        #132
                                                        I am not buying into that divorce reasoning one bit. Things were probably not working in that relationship for long long time and her results were pretty normal in that period...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hardcoar
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-17-13
                                                          • 15606

                                                          #133
                                                          Certainly this:

                                                          Comment
                                                          • Honeybadger44
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-03-14
                                                            • 1675

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                            I was defintely aware of that h2h situation. But, as I wrote above, Hercog's playing style has change quite a bit, since those matches and that caused this match up to be different from those. I thought that made that h2h score irrelevant or at least not that important.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Honeybadger44
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-03-14
                                                              • 1675

                                                              #135
                                                              De Schepper +3 @1.86 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                              When you first look at De Schepper, you would probably think, this guy can only play on fast surface. That is only partially true. He prefers fast, but he can play some decent clay court tennis as well. He is a big lefty, which will go to Sock's backhand as often as possible, because that is the weak point fromt he american and that is the easiest way to disrupt his game and beat him. Also, Sock is a typcial american tennis player, which doesn't really know how to adapt his game to clay courts. I don't see him as a favorite here, at all and I also question his motivation here, because he is probably just looking for a stronger practice, before RG next weekand to get some feel for the surface.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dmoneytx
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-09-12
                                                                • 6450

                                                                #136
                                                                Whats up HB??? Hope all is well sir I took DeScheppy on the ML today at +175. Sock is just so crappy on clay, even the big oaf has a chance to push him to the max or steal this match.

                                                                Totally sucked bec DePpy had TWO break points up 2-1 and couldn't do shit. Then Sock hits the most amazing backhand return at 2-2, 30-30 and ends up breaking DePpy first..

                                                                What a shit break for DePpy, I hope he finds a way back, that break would of most likely given him the set with confidence, now he prob loses the first.. Hoping for a massive Sock meltdown combined with 25 more aces for DeScheppy mayne..

                                                                BOL, hope he hits for both of us..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Honeybadger44
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-03-14
                                                                  • 1675

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Isner ML @1.75 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  Goerges +1,5 sets @2.10 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  Stephens +2,5 @1.94 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  Dimitrov +2,5 @1.81 Pinnacle - 2 units (better odds at some other books)

                                                                  Nishikori -3 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Garcia +4 @1.92 Pinnacle - 5 units

                                                                  Pavlyuchenkova +4,5 @1.95 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Lopez +2,5 @1.91 Pinnacle - 4 units

                                                                  Ferrer/Isner over 23 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Bencic ML @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Jankovic ML @2.00 Pinnacle - 4 units

                                                                  Lepchenko +3 @1.90 Pinnacle - 2 units


                                                                  Haas -3,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Ferrer -3,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Lepchenko 1st set @6.87 - 1 unit

                                                                  Radwanska ML @1.74 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  Ivanovic +5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                  Djokovic +2 @1.89 Pinnacle - 4 units

                                                                  Koukalova +4 @1.90 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  De Schepper +3 @1.86 Pinnacle - 3 units

                                                                  Overall
                                                                  Record 22-17-2
                                                                  Hit rate: 53,66%
                                                                  Staked: 131u
                                                                  Yield: 26,71 u
                                                                  ROI: 20,39%

                                                                  I was almost sure that I lost couple of units in this last stretch (before doing the math), but acctualy profited almost 5 units in those previous 20 picks. Still, I am expecting better performance now, with RG being just around the corner.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Honeybadger44
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-03-14
                                                                    • 1675

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by Dmoneytx
                                                                    Whats up HB??? Hope all is well sir I took DeScheppy on the ML today at +175. Sock is just so crappy on clay, even the big oaf has a chance to push him to the max or steal this match.

                                                                    Totally sucked bec DePpy had TWO break points up 2-1 and couldn't do shit. Then Sock hits the most amazing backhand return at 2-2, 30-30 and ends up breaking DePpy first..

                                                                    What a shit break for DePpy, I hope he finds a way back, that break would of most likely given him the set with confidence, now he prob loses the first.. Hoping for a massive Sock meltdown combined with 25 more aces for DeScheppy mayne..

                                                                    BOL, hope he hits for both of us..
                                                                    Hey, Money! Yeah, everything is goign smoothly so far. I had bumpy two weeks, winning some, loosing some, but I really can't complain with results this season.

                                                                    We missed on De Schepper by a mile. I really thought it was a good bet, but he was simply crap out there. But, I am not stressing much over that one, I know I can get those units back, next week with French open bets.

                                                                    Good luck with your bets and have a nice day!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Honeybadger44
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-03-14
                                                                      • 1675

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Pliskova ML @4.65 Pinnacle - 1 unit

                                                                      I am goign to try this one, purely based on Kerber's hip injury. Yesterday, in second set against Friedsam, it was obvious that she still has some problems with that injury, which has quite big negative impact on her serve. So, is she going to play through it and possibly make it worst, just few days before French open? Maybe it is not that big of a deal, but I believe it is worth of a try at these odds.


                                                                      Puig +4,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 2 units

                                                                      When Puig gets nice feeling on her groundstrokes, she is dangerous to pretty much every opponent. In past few days, she played in decent form, so she might be able to push Petkovic to the limit here. Line is high enough and worth of a bet.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Honeybadger44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-03-14
                                                                        • 1675

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Knapp +5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
                                                                        Knapp ML @4.01 Pinnacle - 1 unit

                                                                        It is pretty remarkable, how easily Knapp found her old form, on this tournament, after 7 consecutive 1st round losses, before coming to Nurnberg. She was extremly confident with her serve, throughout entire tournament, getting a lot of easy points from it, while she also got feeling for groundies, where she had most problems in past couple of months. Now, she is very good from the baseline, hitting the balls deep into the court and commiting very little mistakes.
                                                                        Of course, Bouchard is a talented girl, there is no doubt about it. But, I am really not that high on her, when playing on clay. If Knapp manages to serve it out, like in previous matches, and keep that consistancy from the baseline, which will prevent Bouchard from stepping into the court and attack, I think she has a nice chances to cause an upset.
                                                                        Comment
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