Honeybadger's picks

[frugalgambler]

Knapp sh.t the bed big time, although Bouchard did look pretty pretty solid the last two matches. Knapp had 0-40 at 4-5 1st set but just could not convert. She seems to go on stretches where she loses 4-5 points in a row. Then she saves two MPs and goes A-40 only to lose three points in a row. I had o20 and +4.5 so I am pretty mad not to get at least a push. That being said, Bouchard has been staying positive and she is hitting the ball pretty well. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Have you watched any Pliskova's matches at this tourney ? I am leaning Bouchard, but maybe over is a better bet.

PS Knapp looked pretty tired and Genie was dominating long exchanges. Not a lot of UEs from Genie as well. But tomorrow it should be a nervous affair; actually in both finals there will be a chance for a first title for three players: Genie, Puig and Soler-Espinosa. Pliskova already has a title, wow. I think over sounds interesting in both matches.

[Honeybadger44]

I watched entire match. My impression is that they both played really really good. What separated them was Bouchard winning pretty much every crucial point. As you said, those 3 consecutive break points at the end of the first set, then loosing that 1st game of second set, after being 40-15 up. Having opportunity to cover the spread in that last game and failing to do so... I think we were pretty unfortunate, not to win this bet.
I watched Pliskova against Kerber and part of the match today against Svitolina. She showed some good hitting, but it is really difficult to just out-hit Bouchard. You have to play much smarter and versatille, to beat her on clay and I don't think Pliskova can do that. Bouchard should take that one and I wouldn't risk much money on PLiskova covering the spread...

[Honeybadger44]

Niculescu +4 @1.86 Pinnacle - 2 units
Don't understand why Kanepi is such a big favorite. She is out of form and plays against a tricky opponent, which knows how to draw errors.

Ramos +5 @1.90 - 4 units
Ramos ML @3.49 - 1 unit
It seems to me like Dolgopolov is not playing as near as good, as he played on clay in South America and then later in IW and Miami. While he is still getting respect from linemakers, like he still plays his best tennis. Ramos is a great clay courter, imho. He builds points very nicely and has the patience to wear down his opponent in best of 5 match.

Tsonga/Roger-Vasselin over 36 @1.89 Pinnacle - 4 units
Roger Vasselin ML @5.80 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Tsonga always very pumped up for RG, but this season, he is playing way below the level, which we are used from him. I really strugge to see him winning this one in straight sets. Roger Vasselin maybe having even the best season of his carrer and he will not go down easily. Major value with the dog.

[Honeybadger44]

Knapp ML @2.15 Pinnacle - 7 units
I am aware that I might be too excited about the Knapp at the moment, but I just can't pass on this odds. I think that the market failed to adjust quick enough and these odds are not refelecting current situation. Karin played great in Nurnberg, imho and there is no way, she should be underdog here. I know that Barthel can be extremly dangerous, when she finds her shots, but even though she improved her form little bit, lately, I think she is not at her best yet. Knapp serving really well, playing great from the baseline and should win this one.

[frugalgambler]

I think Knapp was not moving that great against Bouchard. But maybe that is her usual form (I have not been watching her for a while before the match against Bouchard). Not a big fan of hers and I would not put so much on such a mentally unstable player. GL on your other picks and on Knapp too.

[Honeybadger44]

I think Knapp was not moving that great against Bouchard. But maybe that is her usual form (I have not been watching her for a while before the match against Bouchard). Not a big fan of hers and I would not put so much on such a mentally unstable player. GL on your other picks.

Yep, that is pretty much her usual. She is bit clumsy, when it comes to movement and I think it is her biggest weakness. But also, those Bouchard's shots were extremly difficult to chase down. I am confident, because as I said, I think her serve and groundstrokes are clicking on all cilinders at the moment and there is some very nice value in these odds.

Thanks, and best of luck to you as well!

[Honeybadger44]

Really bad day. The way Ramos and Roger Vaselin fell apart in third set and failed to cover, really hurts. But, shit happens in betting. Hoping for better day tommorow. Moving on.

[Hardcoar]

The good news is Knapp will win.

[Honeybadger44]

Really hope so. -15 units, would not be a great start of RG

[Honeybadger44]

Becker/Bellucci over 34 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
I know that clay is not really Becker's thing, but I really can't trust Bellucci at the moment, to play 3 consecutive sets on a high level and win them all.

Mathieu/Thiem over 38 @1.88 Pinnacle - 3 units
Thiem played well on last couple of tournaments and people started to get familiar with his talent. Imho, that also caused, him to be slightly overvalued in this spot. Let's not forget that he pulled out of Madrid, because of some kind of stomach virus (if I am not mistaken), because of which, he also had to skip tournament in Rome. So, his match fitness might be slightly questionable and that is not a great thing, when you have to play best of 5 match, on clay. Mathieu will be fired up, playing in front of home crowd, whose support will have even bigger impact, on that court No. 2, where stands are very close to the court, so atmosphere should be great. I expect a good battle between these two.

Cepelova +4,5 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
Cepelova ML @3.26 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Yeah, I know that I am starting to get annoying with fadeing Hercog, in every single match, but I will keep doing that, as long as I will see the value on that other side.

Stephens ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
Yep, rolling with Sloane here. Peng destroyed her in both her previous encounters, but Peng is in pretty terrible form at the moment. She is missing shots, which she usually hits easily and that shows you how low her confidence is at the moment.

[Honeybadger44]

Garcia +4.5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 4 units
Garcia ML @4.13 Pinnacle - 1 unit
I was sad to see these two girls, playing each other already in first round, because I like them both and they would probably get deep in the tournament with easier draw. Well, when I saw odds, I was not that sad anymore. Ivanovic is playing great tennis this season, especially on clay, but whoever thinks that she is going to have an easy job today, imho, he is wrong. Garcia is a rising star of WTA tour. She already played some great tennis at RG, when she was younger and not even near as good as she is at the moment. Obviously, that boost, which she gets from the crowd, helps her to play even better and I expect a fierce battle betwenn these two.

[Pattycakes0909]

Garcia +4.5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 4 units
Garcia ML @4.13 Pinnacle - 1 unit
I was sad to see these two girls, playing each other already in first round, because I like them both and they would probably get deep in the tournament with easier draw. Well, when I saw odds, I was not that sad anymore. Ivanovic is playing great tennis this season, especially on clay, but whoever thinks that she is going to have an easy job today, imho, he is wrong. Garcia is a rising star of WTA tour. She already played some great tennis at RG, when she was younger and not even near as good as she is at the moment. Obviously, that boost, which she gets from the crowd, helps her to play even better and I expect a fierce battle between these two.

Honeybadger, new to this tennis thread, but like the descriptions you have provided thus far.....Would you mind explaining what the +4.5 @ 1.98 means? Is this in reference in # of games she can lose by in the match? I see on my sites that you can bet on ML, +/- sets, and total # of sets, but that is it....Thanks for the insight.....

[Hardcoar]

You add the number of games won in the match for both players respectively. Then you add the handicap accordingly. If the player your handicap concerns now has a greater number of total games, you win.

[zec]

Honeybadger, new to this tennis thread, but like the descriptions you have provided thus far.....Would you mind explaining what the +4.5 @ 1.98 means? Is this in reference in # of games she can lose by in the match? I see on my sites that you can bet on ML, +/- sets, and total # of sets, but that is it....Thanks for the insight.....

Sounds like your book doesn't have this option. I know bovada doesn't..

[Honeybadger44]

Honeybadger, new to this tennis thread, but like the descriptions you have provided thus far.....Would you mind explaining what the +4.5 @ 1.98 means? Is this in reference in # of games she can lose by in the match? I see on my sites that you can bet on ML, +/- sets, and total # of sets, but that is it....Thanks for the insight.....

Hi! Yes, that is the games handicap line, which I wrote. As you said, the number of games, which she can lose by in this match. It is possible that you cannot find it at your bookmaker, as some (although rare) does not offer those line. Good luck!

[Pattycakes0909]

Hi! Yes, that is the games handicap line, which I wrote. As you said, the number of games, which she can lose by in this match. It is possible that you cannot find it at your bookmaker, as some (although rare) does not offer those line. Good luck!

Thank you for the quick response. BOL moving forward as well.

[Pattycakes0909]

I am assuming when you said above @ 1.98, you are referring to a payout of +198?

[Honeybadger44]

I am assuming when you said above @ 1.98, you are referring to a payout of +198?

nope, that is decimal odds which I wrote. 1.98 decimal is somewhere around -102 in american odds

[Pattycakes0909]

Understood, thank you

[fitguy67]

http://www.intensegambling.com/sports-betting/online/tools/odds-converter/

this is simply the best single odds-converter tool & tutorial i've ever seen

wise to study it so that you can quickly convert (with just a hand-held calculartor) among the three key formats

American (integral): -125, +125

European (decimal): 1.80, 2.25

Implied (break-even) win%: 55.55_%, 44.44_%

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Garcia +4.5 @1.98 Pinnacle - 4 units
Garcia ML @4.13 Pinnacle - 1 unit
I was sad to see these two girls, playing each other already in first round, because I like them both and they would probably get deep in the tournament with easier draw. Well, when I saw odds, I was not that sad anymore. Ivanovic is playing great tennis this season, especially on clay, but whoever thinks that she is going to have an easy job today, imho, he is wrong. Garcia is a rising star of WTA tour. She already played some great tennis at RG, when she was younger and not even near as good as she is at the moment. Obviously, that boost, which she gets from the crowd, helps her to play even better and I expect a fierce battle betwenn these two.

[frugalgambler]

I think you are underestimating Ana's form at the moment. And Garcia strikes me as a type of player who does not really like to play at home, with all the added pressure. Ana for the title ! The match is not over though, so who knows I might be wrong.

[fitguy67]

and this is a contribution HOW?...look at the odds...if Garcia was @1.2 then this makes sense...

[Honeybadger44]

I think you are underestimating Ana's form at the moment. And Garcia strikes me as a type of player who does not really like to play at home, with all the added pressure. Ana for the title ! The match is not over though, so who knows I might be wrong.

No, I knew that Ana is strong. I might overestimated Garcia. She failed to get anything going, after that poor start.

Bold: Already placed.

Well, it's official now. I am free falling at the moment. Have to analyse some of those results, to see what is going on lately and be bit more careful in next few days, until I start winning again. Sorry for the losses in last few days, for all who followed

[WalkingLuckCharm]

and this is a contribution HOW?...look at the odds...if Garcia was @1.2 then this makes sense...

who the fk said i was contributing? i was banging my head

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, good idea man. I am not doing that great in the early rounds of RG myself, so I am also going to take it slow. As for Ana's chances, unfortunately her draw is not that easy, she'll have to deal probably with Svitolina, Safarova, Kuzzy, Halep just to get to the semis. But the two-headed beast is in the other half so I think she is still an almost fav in her half. We'll see.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, almost no easy opponents for her, but against all of these (except Halep) she is big favorite imho, the way she is playing at the moment. I think it will come down to her or Halep, winning the bottom half of the draw, especially now with Li Na out of the competition.

[ManeOnFire]

Yeah, almost no easy opponents for her, but against all of these (except Halep) she is big favorite imho, the way she is playing at the moment. I think it will come down to her or Halep, winning the bottom half of the draw, especially now with Li Na out of the competition.

Have you ever noticed how much Kuznetsova looks like a man? She definitely poses the biggest threat to Ana.

[Honeybadger44]

I think that she will probably not win any beatuy contests in near future, with her looks. Anyway, I have difficulties to understand, what does that have to do, with her tennis skills? And I disaggre that she posses any kind of threat to Ana, let alone being the biggest one.

[fitguy67]

hbj...lighten up on that, we're always free to say things like "lovely" ana

so why not "best one-day crazy sex slave imaginable" alize...

"party interrogator" jelena, "truck driver" kuznetsova...

"er...sorry this is junior-varsity GIRL's tennis" Carla

"terrible shame about the face...maybe if we dress her like a skinny hooker" mona...

you get the idea...

____________

make no mistake, this is sport, but it's far more the "entertanment" industry...any buzz/jokes about you--positive AND negative--is to be cultivated...all the top 30-broads have full-time publicists, many who actively inject mystique- and intrigue-laden rumours into the chatter of their charge...to keep the interest-ball rolling...

if you're in "show business" the only thing worse than reading something negative about yourself in the gossip mill is reading NOTHING

so, let's enjoy the non-tennis or entertainment part of the "sports entertainment" that is WTA

if it was ONLY about the tennis...be honest, typical top-tier hi-school boys' tennis is of a comparable quality...college men's tennis infinitely better...

the fact that these players are of the opposite sex is the only gimmick/business angle in play here

if it were only about the tennis, nobody'd actually PAY to watch female-branded tennis...well, that's an exaggeration...it'd be as popular relative to men's tennis as professional women's basketball or hockey or soccer is in
relation to the REAL top-tier versions of the sport

but tennis being individual, rather than team...can play up the sexual-attractiveness (or lack thereof, as the above poster was doing with Kuznetsova) and wind up the rumour mill MUCH more effectively than compared to say the WNBA...

if you were a publicity agent...would you rather have the number 14 female tennis player in the world...or the 14th best female athelete in ANY OTHER sport...
___________

do you think Nadal loses any sleep cuz people the world over call him some version of "AssPicker" and we all feel free (and are, in fact, encouraged) to say whatever absolutely-ignorant thing we want to about WawrinkaInc's personal life

so, no need to soften the verbal blows toward the other gender

_______

ALL THAT BEING SAID, HBJ does make a valid point in that his thread is not the best place for these sorts of extra-curricular observations...

so, i'm thinking of spinning this off into a new thread...where people can add their own "nicknames" and ridicule to the players they love to love and love to hate...

sorry, HBJ...say the word and I can edit this "word blizzard" down into a simple "never mind"

[Honeybadger44]

Nope, no need to edit. Very interesting post/article, with few quite brilliant points there.

Also, I didn't mind ManOnFire's post, above. I just didn't understand the connection between Kuznetsova looking like a man and that making her the biggest threat to Ana on the way to finals... That's all

PS. Part where I don't agree with you and those nicknames, is where you put Alize as "best one-day crazy sex slave"

[fitguy67]

[frugalgambler]

Li Na is still offered to win RG @BM for +600 , Halep is also at +600, while Ana is down to +1200. We'll see. Halep is definitely good but I am hoping her lack of experience will work against her during the later rounds. Plus, she really has no game right now to bother Serena, or even Sharapova, in the final. As for Kuzzy, yeah she is good not a bit too erratic right now. Also, fitguy I find top-30 women's tennis more entertaining than men's. My only problem is that they should be made to play five-setters if they want equal pay at GSs.

[Hardcoar]

They still wouldn't deserve equal pay because what they do isn't as valuable.

[fitguy67]

i agree FULLY...compare WNBA to NBA
or Australian Netball (a quite-popular W-only pro-sport not too different from basketball...to the M-only NBL basketball)...both reported on pretty-well the same page in the sports section of the daily newspaper...

outside of tennis...there is far from wage-parity...simply put, this more fairly reflects actual $-pulling value of top-tier female vs top-tier male atheletes doing same/similar "job"

tennis the only sport with wage parity, and it was originally for contrived "political" non-market reasons...if my daughter is going to be #14 in the world in ANYTHING...lord let it be tennis!

______________

AND frugal gambler is 100% right as well...even if you accept equal prize money at ATP vs WTA 3-set events as it is now...it should NOT apply at GS events...unless they make the broads do EQUAL WORK = 5-sets

...they should be made to play five-setters if they want equal pay at GSs.

^^^

obvious flip-side to that is that, under the current format of 3-set matches for women at GS (where the men must play 5-sets matches)...their prize money should be capped at 60% of the corresponding men's prize...