Honeybadger's picks

[Honeybadger44]

Exactly. Olic couldn't do anything there. It is simple as that. You cannot bump goalkeeper, when he goes up for the ball. It is completely different topic, where you think the rules should change and give less adventage to the goalie. I disagree on that as well. Just imagine, how sick would become the game, if goalkeeper would be unprotected. And then everything would be on refferes shoulders, to deciede, if bump on goalie was strong enough to call a foul or not. It is much better this way, imho.

[frugalgambler]

Just googled the Mexican league budgets, wow. I was really surprised how much more money they spend there compared to MLS. The MLS product is a lot better. Anyway, Mexicans had no business qualifying for the WC; they did change the coach recently, but still that is a team that really struggles to score. Talking about budgets: Russians also spend enormous sums on players' salaries yet their league struggles and the clubs cannot compete in European tourneys. A lot of that money is being stolen though. By the way, that not so good Croatioan goalie has played in Russia for ~10 years (and so did Olic for a while, and so does Hulk who sucked as well).

[Marillion]

Holy Christ the referees are horrible. Even if you accept that most of the accusations against the Japanese referees from yesterday are justified (which I am really not sure about), you'd have to agree that today's referees are way worse.

[zec]

Holy Christ the referees are horrible. Even if you accept that most of the accusations against the Japanese referees from yesterday are justified (which I am really not sure about), you'd have to agree that today's referees are way worse.

That's always been a big problem with the World Cup; they bring in the guys from all over the World who do no have expertise to officiate at this level with so much on the line.

[frugalgambler]

Wow, another POS match. So far the WC looks worse than the Gold Cup, let alone the Confed Cup. Good thing I took u1.5 immediately after Mexicans scored.

[Marillion]

Only bets I had were Mexico over Cameroon and Croatia over Cameroon.... I suppose the odds for the Croats are now going down.

[NguyenImproved]

back to bussines now...

Brown ML @4.00 Pinnacle - 2 units
I actually expected lower odds on Brown, becuase of the win against Nadal yesterday, and to find some of the value with the favorite. It didn't happen. Odds are quite juicy imho and I will take a shot with Brown here. Kohlschreiber is a very good shot maker and can create very nice angles, making it difficult for his opponent to attack. Still, I don't think that he will have time to develop his usual game here, because Brown is extremly aggressive with every single shot, which he takes. And considering that he is "feeling it" at the moment, I would be worried in Kohlschreiber's place.

Dellacqua -3 @1.83 Pinnacle - 3 units
I went with super granny yesterday, because I had a feeling that her game might bother Hantuchova. Pretty much completely different scenario here. Dellacqua has the ability to chase down those flat shots of Date-Krumm and bring them back into the court. Also, I believe that she can do well against the players, which are coming to the net often, as she has a nice passing shot, especially with her cross-court backhand. Her game is great for grass. Her slice serve has nice effect here and her shots are flat and low, maaking it tough for her opponent to attack...

Nishikori -4 @2.02 Pinnacle - 2 units
Many people will going to back Johnson here a tthis line and hope, he can stick with japanese, serving well. Not me. In terms of quality, Nishikori is in different universe and as soon as he cracks Johnson's serve, it will be game over for Steve. Wouldn't be surprise with a 6-4, 6-2 scoreline.

Berdych -2,5 @1.95 Pinnacle - 3 units
Lopez not playing well in my eyes, this week. He will need very high 1st serve percentage, to keep up with Tomas in this match, because he will lose majority of the points in the 5+ shot rallies. Line is too low, value with the favorite.

Federer/Lu over 20,5 @1.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
Lu's yesterdays win against Ivo, was not a fluke. This guy can play on grass. This is too low of a line.

Mexico-Cameroon over 2 @1.94 Pinnacle - 2 units
Look at this group. If either of this team want to proceed to the next phase, they need all 3 points from this match. Both will go for the win.

Mexico to win @2.22 Pinnacle - 2 units
I don't want any part of the team, which refused to board the plane, because they were not satisfied with the prizes, in case of a good result. Playing at the world cup in Brazil, representing your country, should be a huge honor for every single player. Fact that they are not thinking the same way and that they think about money, is dissapointing to me. Mexico on the other side, is bit underrated, because not many of their players are playing for big european clubs. But guess what, Mexican league is very quality and so are the players, which play there.

Chile -1 (AH) @1.91 Pinnacle - 2 units
Dark horse of the competition, for many experts. Vidal, Sanchez, Valdivia, Pinilla... Many very good players in this team. They are playing very attractive football and will have huge crowd support, as it is expected 30-40k of their fans will arive to Brazil. Australia is a big outsider of this group and 3 points against them is a must, if they want to keep hopes for next phase.

Hey man. I'm new to this forum although not new to betting on the tennis.
Nice analysis you've got going. Fun read.
What are your thoughts on nishikori federer match.

[fitguy67]

Brad Taschuk @bradtaschuk 12h

If I was a soccer ref, the game would just be 22 players laying on the ground writhing in pain and me checking the time on my watch.

[Honeybadger44]

Hey man. I'm new to this forum although not new to betting on the tennis.
Nice analysis you've got going. Fun read.
What are your thoughts on nishikori federer match.

Welcome!

I'll post my picks little bit later, after I do some "homework". I'll post my thoughts about the match, which you requested, as well.

[zec]

HB, I see the odds are dropping for Musli and Lazic to score under 6.5 tonight. I have never heard of these players. Would you agree with that? Thanks man!

[Honeybadger44]

HB, I see the odds are dropping for Musli and Lazic to score under 6.5 tonight. I have never heard of these players. Would you agree with that? Thanks man!

Musli is Partizan's center. Pretty much without any skill. Can't shoot. Doesn't have good technique at the low post. Doesn't shoot the free throws well. He is strong and looks to push opponents around, getting a good position under the basket, before getting the ball. That will be hard to do against Zvezda, which also have powerful centers in Marjanovic and Katic. I don't know much about his playing time lately, but it seemed to me that Milutinov had the adventage over him and that he is a backup. Under would be my lean as well, but you never know with such low lines. One lucky offensive rebound with putback and one Zvezda's mistake in defense, leaving him alone, and you can alredy find yourself in troubles.

Regarding Lazic. He is Zvezda's SG/SF. Defensive specialist. Doesn't take a lot of shots. But, he has nice playing time and he always waits in the corner, and shoots threes when he gets open. He is pretty good at it. But also, slight lean to the under, considering that he is 4th or 5th attacking option, when he is on court + he is always in danger to get into foul troubles, because he usualy covers opponents best player and he does it very aggresivly. Good luck!

[Honeybadger44]

Jaksic ML @2.16 Pinnacle - 2 units
She is having a brekthrough season. Played great in Monterrey, few months ago on a very fast and low bouncing hard courts, similar to grass. She should do just fine here. Her serve is great, while her ball striking will cause her opponents many troubles on fast surfaces. Hsieh is a threat, because of her experiance, but I believe that Jaksic is too good at the moment.

Dellacqua -3,5 @1.83 Pinnacle - 3 units
Riding this one, until the wells fall off. I think that she is simply in too good of a form on grass, for players like Zahlavova Strycova. I actually think that Date Krumm yesterday had better chances for an upset, then Czech player today, and we all see how that match ended up yesterday. Barbora is a decent grass courter, but will lose majority of the points during the longer rallies, because Casey is too solid at the moment.

Ormaechea ML @3.32 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Razzano wins few matches and she instantly gets overvalued, imho. Yes, she has experiance and good game on grass. But every time I watch her matches, she experiances some fatigue problems or injury or something like that.
Ormaechea might be from South america, but she can play some decent tennis on faster surfaces as well. Her serve is solid and her groundstrokes can do damage.

[Honeybadger44]

and my comment on Nishikori-Federer's match, which I promised to our new friend above...

It will definitely be an entertaining match. A lot of great shots from both sides. From a betting standpoint, I don't find enough value on either side to take it. But my lean is towards Nishikori. He can create great angles with his shots and his shot placment is amazing. Federer, not being the youngest, and quickest player on the tour anymore, might struggle to get in position on time, to return those shots back in play, at his best. Also, court in Halle is pretty damaged at this point already. Nishikori might use that, going to Fed's backhand more often, hoping for some misshits, because that one handed backhand, has to be executed to perfection, while any slight change in bounce, pace of the ball etc. will probably result in misshit and unforced error. Few errors from the backhand side and federer will struggle to find some rhythm with that shot. In close matchup like this one, that could decide. Good luck with your bets!

[slayer14]

is nishikori back to 100 percent fitness, anyone here watch him play this week how his serve going

[SirtySree]

is nishikori back to 100 percent fitness, anyone here watch him play this week how his serve going

he seems fine to me but back problems r one of those injuries which u can feel fine one day and wake up the next not feeling too good

i like honeybadger44's take on the game above though. i dont see any value either side either

[frugalgambler]

Hey man. You like any WC lines today ? I am thinking along the lines of Greece +0.5 (no Falkao, I hear and anyway Greece is a pretty decent team) and Costa Rica 1H draw (they will park the bus and no Suarez as far as I know).

[Honeybadger44]

Hey man. You like any WC lines today ? I am thinking along the lines of Greece +0.5 (no Falkao, I hear and anyway Greece is a pretty decent team) and Costa Rica 1H draw (they will park the bus and no Suarez as far as I know).

Didn't find any good value in these lines, but here are my thoughts.

From group C, I have Colombia and Japan proceeding to the next phase, so obviously, I like them today as well.

Colombia will miss Falcao for sure, but they have 4 great strikers, behind him on depth chart (Bacca from Sevilla, Ramos from Hertha, Martinez from Porto and Guttierez from River Plate). Of course, they are not like Falcao, but still very good. Also in other positions, their team looks pretty strong, especially on the flanks with Armero and Rodriguez on on side and Zuniga and Cuadrado on the other side. That is why I am leaning their side, but I am not too thrilled about the odds. Greece play super boring football, but very disciplined at the same time. I don't like their football very much, and from what I was reading, their midfield is not that great in destructing opponents game, like it was, back in the days. That is important information, because that is huge part of their game. Mitroglu was great in Olympiacos, but since he trasfered to Fulham, he only played like 2-3 games there. And he is their starting striker. Also, don't know if Samaras can play at his best on the wing. We will see. As I said, lean toward Colombia, but not great value in the odds.

I like your thinking about Uruguay game. Suarez is out. They have a good team, but I feel they are bit overhyped, because of Cavani-Suarez duo up front. Costa Rica will obviously have very defensive minded approach and that 1H draw, does not seem like a bad option.

Italy-England is a big question mark. I don't like England's predicted starting line up. Just don't trust Henderson in the centre of the midfield, while Welbeck on the wing is not a great idea as well, imho. I can see Italy dominating the midfield in the first half with Pirlo, De Rosi and Veratti. Probably scoring an opening goal. And then England will probably rely on their young guns from the bench, like Sterling and Barkley, adding some flair to their game in second half, scoring an equalizer.

Ivory Coast-Japan. As I said, I like Japan. They always had the tactical discipline in the game and played like a team. I think that at the moment, they finaly have some individual quiality as well, to get through to the next phase.
Ivory coast has few big names on their team. But I saw few of their friendly games. Their defense was hilarious against Bosnia, few days ago. Midfielders not being careful with the ball in that dangerous area, 35 meters, in front of their goal. Defenders bmping into each other, when trying to make a play... Kolo Toure was once a very good player. But at the moment, I don't trust him, comanding their defensive line. Up front, they are loaded with talent, but if they will fail to back it up with some team play, Japanese will upset them. Good luck!

[NguyenImproved]

and my comment on Nishikori-Federer's match, which I promised to our new friend above...

It will definitely be an entertaining match. A lot of great shots from both sides. From a betting standpoint, I don't find enough value on either side to take it. But my lean is towards Nishikori. He can create great angles with his shots and his shot placment is amazing. Federer, not being the youngest, and quickest player on the tour anymore, might struggle to get in position on time, to return those shots back in play, at his best. Also, court in Halle is pretty damaged at this point already. Nishikori might use that, going to Fed's backhand more often, hoping for some misshits, because that one handed backhand, has to be executed to perfection, while any slight change in bounce, pace of the ball etc. will probably result in misshit and unforced error. Few errors from the backhand side and federer will struggle to find some rhythm with that shot. In close matchup like this one, that could decide. Good luck with your bets!

Thanks for the reply mate.
This is a great thread you've got going. Very readable.

Yes. I think you're probably right about the match itself.
Slight lean to Nishikori..

He actually opened up at 3.15 with pinnacle (who i unfortunately don't have an account with...) but anything under $3.00 (all that's available at the moment) is less tempting. I think he'll win but since there's so many unknown factors ie. Nishikori just 'back' from an injury, both finding their feet on grass, Fed's last round "bye", etc. it clouds the issue somewhat.

As a rule I like to bet against fed as he is always priced as a 'lock' even though he is nowhere near as reliable as the other stars. His exceptional record at this event in the past also inflates the prices of his opponents.

About me:

I don't bet often but when I do I go hard.

So I tend to be extremely cautious before making any moves and generally won't touch a player under $3.00. My MO is finding premium players at odds over $3.00. It's rare so so far this year I've only had one proper bet.

($1.1k at 5.75 on Wawrinka in the AO Final.
Also had $152 at 21.00 on Halep to win the FO in March and an idiotic bet on her in-the-run vs Sharapova coming into the third set of the final when I should've taken a saver.
Also blew $150 on Raonic at $7.00 to win Halle as I felt Nadal and Fed added value to the rest of the field).

So I'm itchy to catch Fed out but generally don't like betting players with recent wins over the opponent. My reasoning is most people who won with that player last time just go gung-ho and rollover some money again in the next match driving down prices. Case in point Nishikori has been over $5.00+ to beat Fed his last two meetings.

It's a shame cos I think the Japanese player will probably end up taking the title.

Fed to me at the moment just doesn't seem to be able to attack even the most mediocre of serves.

[kenz]

Monfils gifted the game to Nishi he was nothing special on that game. Did not watch him against Johnson though. Playing against Fed might be a motivation but by judging against Monfils he was mediocre

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks for the reply mate.
This is a great thread you've got going. Very readable.

Yes. I think you're probably right about the match itself.
Slight lean to Nishikori..

He actually opened up at 3.15 with pinnacle (who i unfortunately don't have an account with...) but anything under $3.00 (all that's available at the moment) is less tempting. I think he'll win but since there's so many unknown factors ie. Nishikori just 'back' from an injury, both finding their feet on grass, Fed's last round "bye", etc. it clouds the issue somewhat.

As a rule I like to bet against fed as he is always priced as a 'lock' even though he is nowhere near as reliable as the other stars. His exceptional record at this event in the past also inflates the prices of his opponents.

About me:

I don't bet often but when I do I go hard.

So I tend to be extremely cautious before making any moves and generally won't touch a player under $3.00. My MO is finding premium players at odds over $3.00. It's rare so so far this year I've only had one proper bet.

($1.1k at 5.75 on Wawrinka in the AO Final.
Also had $152 at 21.00 on Halep to win the FO in March and an idiotic bet on her in-the-run vs Sharapova coming into the third set of the final when I should've taken a saver.
Also blew $150 on Raonic at $7.00 to win Halle as I felt Nadal and Fed added value to the rest of the field).

So I'm itchy to catch Fed out but generally don't like betting players with recent wins over the opponent. My reasoning is most people who won with that player last time just go gung-ho and rollover some money again in the next match driving down prices. Case in point Nishikori has been over $5.00+ to beat Fed his last two meetings.

It's a shame cos I think the Japanese player will probably end up taking the title.

Fed to me at the moment just doesn't seem to be able to attack even the most mediocre of serves.

Great! It all makes a lot of sense. Btw, I was also thinking about Raonic futures, but not for Halle. I was thinking Wimbledon. But then I remembered, how poorly he looked out their in first round of Halle, last year, losing to Monfils in straight sets. So I backed of. Grass might not be his thing. He definitely wouldn't be the first guy with a big serve, who doesn't preffer grass over other surfaces.

I am glad you decided to join the forum. It is obvious that you have a lot of knowledge and I hope you will stick around and contribute to this already very good tennis section. Cheers!

[fitguy67]

FG, we ride or die together on

Greece +0.5 (pin@2.01)

Uruguay/CostaRica, 1H Draw (pin@6.28)...hope the full-sized bus shows up

[fitguy67]

HBJ, we ride or die together on

Jaksic, 2.16

Dellaqua -3.5, 1.83

Ormaechea, 3.32

[Dmoneytx]

FG, we ride or die together on

Greece +0.5 (pin@2.01)

Uruguay/CostaRica, 1H Draw (pin@6.28)...hope the full-sized bus shows up

Uh, the first half over is NOT 6.28 (+528).. LOL!!! Draw for the full game is +220. You did some wrong homework here buddy.. NO draw first half in this world cup will be almost +550, in ANY game...

Draw first half is +105 at BOnline or even up to +130 at 5D... not +550 range, just clearing this up so no confusion, thanks..

PM

21101

Uruguay

-½

+105

+105

Ov

1

+110

21102

Costa Rica

+½

-125

+610

Un

1

-130

21103

Draw

+115

[fitguy67]

oops...when i hit these about an hour ago, i major-league F'd up the Urug/CR, 1H play

ended up being a full-unit "lottery ticket" on big-dog greece -0.5 (1H)...

my brain must have kicked into idle...i could understand putting the right bet (1H draw) on the wrong game ...but to mindlessly submit the wrong play on the wrong game..)

_______
I have plenty of time...i COULD eat a small bit of chalk and back out...but i believe in providence...so will just treat this wrong bet as the right "lottery ticket" I was supposed to have purchased this morning (and i was at least lucky enough to get it at about the best price available when i did...thanks Pinny, sort of)

most important thing now: that bus I ordered to support the wager better park properly (REALLY tight to the Greek goal-posts)...as for the goal that Greece must score for me to cash...well, there's always prayer!..

one FG's sharp play became another FG's dumbass lottery ticket

381275396-1 3	6:08am 14-Jun-14	9:00am 14-Jun-14	Soccer Handicap	Colombia vs Greece (+0.5) for Match.	+101			Pending
381276203-1 4	6:15am 14-Jun-14	9:00am 14-Jun-14	Soccer 1H 1X2	Colombia vs Greece for 1st Half.	+528			Pending

[fitguy67]

nm: dumbest fukkin' betting mistake ever...i kept looking for uruguay/costa rica, 1H draw...and kept submitting other shit for a completely different game (a 1H ml for the big dog, Greece against Columbia...and THEN a 1H Draw in that same--and wrong!!...game)

i just wanted to put on a few fliers...instead i wiped out most of the profits from going 3-1 on an autoplayed batch of MLB dogs (with avg price of +175) yesterday...not the kind of luck to come every day...and i pissed it all away on a sport i HATE watching OR betting on...now i have truly experienced the essence of the acronym FML

[bababooey13]

team good-guys going against each other here. Im all over Columbia.The public doesn't realize how good they are. They will miss Falcao, but not that much, I am pretty confident. I guess we'll see folks.

Nice job in here btw Honeybadger.. awesome thread,

[NguyenImproved]

So no Sayonara for the Swiss yet.

Wow. You were spot on with your Nishikori appraisal dude.
I'm breathing a small "KEI" of relief right now.
I was tempted but expected odds of about 4 bucks because of Fed's heavenly Halle record so had to pass at the odds.

Dodged a bullet. Weird how when there's no value with a bet they often lose as well.

Anyway the Golden Goose still walks. I will be hunting him down at Wimbledon.
I don't want to disrespect his great record but for now I think he's about the 10th-20th best player in the world.
Not 4th.

At Wimbledon there's a host of second tier players that could beat him.
Basically anyone that won't self destruct will push Fed.

Today's match recap for those who didn't see:

Fed played not great. Couldn't win any rallies but blistering start and 1st serve got him through.
Stole the first with early break before Kei got warmed up.
Saved a crucial BP before serving out set to 6-3.

Got early break to open 2nd set but as is customary gave it straight back to be 1-1.
Both held serve til inevitable tie-break. Kei looked steadier in overall play and pushed Fed to 30-40 many times without a break-through.


Kei lead 4-2 in tiebreak but faded with untimely UF at the crucial end-game.
Fed took tie-breaker 6-4 and the match to break his losing sequence of two to the Jap.

This squares their ledger at two apiece.

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks, bababooey13! And I agree with your assesment, regarding Colombia. They are strong and could make some noise at this competition. Good luck with your bets!


@NguyenImproved

I saw only part of the match, because I was paying attention to some other matches, so your recap was very helpful. Thank you. I agree that Fed is overvalued at the moment, and Wimbledon should be a the place, to lurk for a great spot, to bet against him.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not a great day for my picks today. Ormaechea won, Jaksic lost. Dellacqua had many opportunities to put that first set away. Somehow managed to lose it and now she is falling apart. Very often seen story, in womens game... That rain delay also could not come in more inappropriate moment. She was on the roll, winning 3 games in the row. Striking the ball really well...

Moving on, hoping for a better day tommorow.

[Hardcoar]

Federer certainly wasn't overvalued here though, IMO.

[JC1186]

I don't want to disrespect his great record but for now I think he's about the 10th-20th best player in the world.
Not 4th.

C'mon mate, wtf?

So who exactly are the 9-19 players you'd put in front of him?

Berdych?

Tsonga?

Raonic?

Wawrinka?

Ummmm no. Just no.

Dimitrov?

Still no.

Nishikori?

Maybe. But Fed just proved otherwise.

Murray?

Hmmm, imho, not quite.

[kenz]

Federer is 10th-20th best? WTF are you drinking man?

[kenz]

The guy is the father of 4, had new twins past 1-2 weeks, is rich as fak and still finds motivation to be in top 4. He won 65 consecutive grass games in his career. He is not as good as he was but at his worst he is still top 5

[Hardcoar]

Fed still top 10 IMO.

[bababooey13]

we should just start a Federer thread so people can argue there. See this topic come up every 2 weeks.

[kenz]

WTF

how can Lopez be @2.75 tomorrow?