always take the 1st day of madness off ep, I like your style. college basketball is my shit, when I will repay all my debts to the tennis help I received here.
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Working on a US Open preview today. Hoping to post it tonight. Going to be a little more of a 1st round betting preview with a little bit of thought about how each quarter might shake out as far as predictions.Comment -
Looking for opinions on top three seeds (Williams, Azarenka, Radwanska) to make semi-finals (note that Errani, Halep, Wozniacki, Kirilenko and Vinci are all excluded from their opposition being in the third quarter) @ 5.Comment -
Also: Nadal to outlast Djokovic @ 1.83.Comment -
I give Haas, Po'Mo and Murray all a fair chance at taking Djokobo out while the same cannot be said for Federer and Berdych (is the eighth Gasquet/Ferrer/Jerzy/Gulbis?) on Nadal's behalf. Even if Djokobo does face Nadal in the finals a 45 % shot isn't that bad considering previous opportunities.Comment -
No way Haas wins a best of five against Djokovic IMO. Murray will have the best shot IMO - but that is assuming he gets his shit together. I don't think Del Potro has been playing all that great lately whether it was the back injury or just some fatigue. He'll need to find some better form to be able to get back to the level he was at during that Wimbledon match and even in Washington ...Comment -
Way, but not a big way. Anyone who disagrees Murray has the best shot is simply wrong. My point is they all stand a far better chance against Djokovic than their counterparts stand against Nadal.
Naturally, you may disagree with that theory to some extent.Comment -
I agree. Nadal's biggest threat in his quarter really looks to be Isner potentially. IMO, Nadal at -275 or for you wack job Euro fukks - 1.36 to win his quarter is a bargain IMO.Comment -
ATP US OPEN PREVIEW
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
1st ROUND UPSET ALERTS
Bogomolov [+175] Over Paire
Crazy, perhaps. Paire though is as inconsistent as anyone on tour and he's cutting his teeth on this surface. Losses this Summer to Melzer, Davydenko & Matosevic on hard courts show his lack of invincibility. He has shown good competitiveness at the USO with a couple tough 2nd round exits in two of the last three years to Kohlschreiber and Lopez. Bogo is a notch below, but he's been tough on hard courts on the Challenger Level this Summer. He also scored a nice scalp of Ferrer in Montreal, although we know Ferrer usually is poor in the period between Wimbledon & the USO. He'll need one of Paire's "off" days to pull this off, but who knows when those days are coming.
Zopp [+550] over Granollers
This is certainly one of those dartboard shots, but when you examine closer - it's not total lunacy. Zopp shocked Istomin in the opening round here last year with no form really leading up to the USO in 2012 that led you to believe he was capable. That's more of the case again this year with little prep work for the USO, while Granollers has played Cincy & Montreal - scoring a nice win over Dimitrov to boot. He's still under .500 on this surface though for his career. This plays either a Granny blowout or a total shocker IMO.
Duckworth [+165] over Smyczek
Two guys here who are more at home on the Challenger circuit. I think it's much more even than the price yields. Duckworth has begun to make the rounds finally to try and harness his talent by playing outside if Australia. He's certainly got work to do, but his two five set matches at the Australian Open this year and some of his play this Summer show that he has a serve that can keep him even in these sort of matches. Smyczek certainly has the skills to win this match-up as he has played fairly well this Summer, taking sets from Verdasco and Haas. He earned his maiden USO win last year against Bobby Reynolds. This should be tougher. Duckworth will need to serve at a consistent level from beginning to end to have a legit shot.
PARLAY FILLER
Nieminen [-275] over Kubot
Kubot has been miserable on this surface this Summer, while Niemo has found his health and started playing better this past week.
Hewitt [-275] over Baker
Baker has only begun his comeback from injury, so drawing one of the tours grinders is not the best draw he could have hoped for to open. Certainly, Baker still has some talent - but this feels like he'll need one of those lightning in a bottle performances where his serve is untouchable and he's painting lines. If Hewitt is allowed to get him into rallies, I would think the Aussie will grind him out in four or five sets.
MISC.
Becker [-160] over Rosol
Becker isn't the most consistent guy, but his Summer featured a Challenger title on this surface and at least some decent prep work on the ATP level. Rosol hasn't won since June at Queen's Club. Coincidentally, Becker started his current seven match losing streak with a straight sets win, the second over Rosol this year. The other came in Auckland early in the season on a hard court. Rosol has been competing better, but the results have not come. He's never won a main draw at the USO in just two tries, failing to make it out of qualis last year.
BREAKDOWN
Djokovic vs. Del Potro is the seeded quarterfinal and I think we'd be disappointed not to see a repeat of their Wimbledon match-up. I don't see any major issues standing in Djokovic's way. Dimitrov could be his biggest test in the 3rd round, but has handled him all four times they have met so far and I don't think Dimitrov's chances in a best of five are great against him. Del Potro will have a slightly tougher road, having to potentially face Haas in the 4th round - but has already scored two wins over Haas on hard courts this year. I think he'll fight health and expectation more than his opponents. If he can keep his head straight, he'll be there. Darkhorse here certainly could be someone like Dolgopolov who had been hot until losing to Monfils. He could go home against Goffin or find himself in position to play spoiler.
MURRAY QUARTER
1st ROUND UPSET ALERTS
F.Mayer [+120] over Monaco
This figures to be one of the more competitive first round matches in this quarter. Mayaer surprisingly dominates the head-2-head, including several wins on Monaco's preferred clay surface. The problem with Mayer is consistency. He can be a world beater one match and no show the next. Monaco certainly isn't at his best on hard courts, but he has made two 4th round trips at the USO before, so he certainly isn't a fish out of water. The over could be the better bet than guessing a side.
Malisse [+180] over Seppi
Another one where price seems to weigh too heavy to one side in another even match-up. Malisse often has been thought of as being more successful on this surface because of his potentially stout serve, but he's struggled on the surfave in recent years much like Seppi has for most of his career. The thing with Seppi is that he normally competes hard in Slams, but this has been his worst. He hasn't won a 1st rounder at the USO since 2008, while Malisse hasn't won a main draw match here since 2007. Someone breaks the streak.
Stepanek [+175] over Wawrinka
The books obviously don't think this is a shoe-in as the #9 seed draws a fairly low price. Stepanek has been up and down this Summer, with a 4-3 mark during this hard court swing. He was only blown out once in those matches by Pospisil in Montreal. Wawrinka is normally a good bet to be in the 4th round at these hard court Slams, but his back has been a bit tricky of late. That saw him lose to Lopez, Paire and Robredo during this swing. Wawrinka's 12-10 5th set loss in Australia to Djokovic is a reminder of what he is capble of when healthy and motivated. That is key here. If he starts fast, Wawrinka should be around for a bit - but Stepanek will test him.
Brands [+290] over Anderson
Maybe a month or so ago, I wouldn't have looked too deep into this one - but Anderson seems to have tired out perhaps with three straight losses. Certainly losing to Del Potro, Dolgopolov and Haas is no sin, but Anderson has looked a little more vulnerable. Last year, he was unlucky to draw Ferrer to open. He made the third round the two years prior. Brands is tough and has gone toe to toe with some of the best this year. If Anderson wobbles any, Brands will take him down.
Kudla [+112] over Vesely
Let's not mince words. Vesely is vastly talented, but his surface is clay. He's gotten the majority of his work on hard courts done at the Futures Level, so this is new territory. I'm not suggesting Kudla has more talent overall, but his experience on this surface at a higher level may wind up being the difference. Vesely is also a newbie to the Slam scene in general, playing his first main draw at Roland Garros whereas Kudla has played the USO before and will be making his third straight main draw at a Slam. He likely won't make it easy on himself, but I think Kudla stands a shot at plus odds to pull this one off.
MISC.
Johnson [-145] over Kamke
Weapons-wise, Johnson has the edge for the surface. Consistency wise, these two are both a coin flip on any given day. Johnson did show well in Winston-Salem before he succumbed possibly to fatigue at the end of a long week in a straights sets whipping by Lu. This is the site of Johnson's best pro results to date, a third round appearance last year. He also played very well, flashing his solid serve against Almagro in a tough five set loss in Australia this year. He's shown he can achieve results at Grand Slams. Kamke was 2-3 during the Summer swing with a lot of that play coming in qualifying. He's just a .500 player on outdoor hard courts. He has yet to win a main draw match at the USO in three tries.
BREAKDOWN
Murray's summer was not productive, so he has to flip the switch on for the next two weeks if he's going to defend his title. He has been afforded a nice early draw though that should aid in him finding some form. I really don't see a major challenge before the QFs. Berdych is the seed in the bottom half. His draw has a few more pitfalls with guys like Anderson, Wawrinka and some dangerous unseeded guys like Karlovic & Chardy not to be entirely discounted. Berdych's demolition of Murray in Cincy serves notice that he has a chance to spoil the semifinal party between Djokovic & Murray. The major issues for Berdych is that last year was his first quarterfinal ever at the USO. I don't see a major darkhorse in this quarter with the "longer" shot to surprise being the 9th seed Wawrinka who looks like boom or bust in this draw.
FERRER QUARTER
1st ROUND UPSET ALERTS
Olivetti [+145] over Robert
The big serving Frenchman may be making his Grand Slam debut, but there is a chance you may here his name talked about a bit if his serve holds form. At 6'8", he has blasted serves as fast as 160 mph and can go the John Isner route. An interesting draw with fellow Frenchman in Robert and then maybe Gasquet in the 2nd round where NY might feel a little more like home. Robert has been a decent Challenger level hard court player, but in looking the past couple years - power servers have troubled him on this surface. Learn the name. Albano Olivetti.
Bedene [+425] over Tursunov
Another longshot, dartboard play. However, these two played in qualis in Cincy and Bedene took a set off Turnsunov before losing in three. Tursunov has been in solid form this Summer, resurgent to say the least with quarterfinal or better showings in three tournaments. He did crash out hard in Winston Salem, which could have been the product of a couple long weeks as Melzer whipped him in straights. The question mark for Tursunov is always consistency. He has shown it this summer, but he's also 0 for his last 3 main draw matches at the USO. Bedene is raw and better suited to clay, but he's shown tough on this surface against some solid players. Handicap also worth a look here for Bedene if you don't want to take the dartboard dare.
Petzschner [+145] over Sock
Sock to me has not made the advancement in play that you would have hoped to see over the last year. He's often seemed a one trick pony with a below average return game. He comes in off a retirement from a leg injury in Winston-Salem. I'd expect him to be okay to start, but he's got the added pressure of being the hyped American and playing on Center Court from Day One. Petz had shoulder issues this year that limited his play. He cruised in qualis though and his veteran savvy will be at play against Sock. He's always played fairly well here and shown tough even in losing. If Sock plays the same level he has in recent tournaments, Petzschner is going to have a real chance.
Bellucci [+125] over Bautista-Agut
Bellucci gets a bad wrap as just another clay court guy out of his element on hard courts. Certainly his record is not outstanding, but he has put forth some very solid efforts on the surface. He only played two matches this Summer on the surface, losing both in three tough sets - to Robredo and Klizan. He's lost three straight at the USO, but two came in five sets. Bautista-Agut has yet to score a win at the USO in the main draw. He did play well in Australia earlier this year, winning against Fognini before bowing out in the 2nd round in a five setter to Melzer. Both guys can play on the surface. OVERs also worth a look.
PARLAY FILLER
Rufin [-205] over Struff
Not suggesting Rufin is unbeatable, but Struff is inexperienced to say the least on this surface. This will actualy be his first main draw match at the ATP level on this surface. Rufin Rufin did prep work in Winston-Salem with a win over Istomin and a three set loss to Robredo. He took Tipsarevic to five sets here last year and has at least experienced the atmosphere several times.
Sela [-250] over Kuznetsov
Mr.Hard Court Challenger. Sela has won two hard court Challengers this season and made another Final. He had some back issues earlier in the Summer, but showed healthy in winning the Astana Challenger on this surface earlier in August. Kuznetsov is a talent, but moreso on clay. He did surprise a gimpy Juan Monaco in the Australian Open this year, but mostly does not enjoy the surface. Sela's experience should see him through. It's his first trip to the USO since 2011, but he had won his opener in each of his last two appearances.
MISC.
Klahn [-145] over De Schepper
Another case of two young players where one has had much better results and experience on the surface. Klahn is that one. De Schepper could certainly control this if his serve is stout, but there's a reason the big lefty doesn't have much to show on this surface. Klahn has been playing well on the Challenger Level and scored his maiden Slam win here last year against Melzer.
BREAKDOWN
Certainly this is the most wide open quarter and it would lend itself to finding a good futures price or two. Even though Ferrer's form has been rubbish this Summer, he is the ultimate grinder. He shows at Slams and is usually at-worst in position to give you a hedge in the QFs if you like him to win the quarter. He's going to get a steady diet of heavy hitters, which may actually lend itself to helping him "surprise" some this year by making another deep run at a Slam. Young Aussie Nick Kyrgios has a thundering serve that will test Ferrer right up in the 1st round. The third round brings the potential of Ernests Gulbis with Janowicz seeded to meet him in the 5th. Even though I'm not big on Janowicz on this surface, his draw lends him to a run. Almost every expert expects him to take this quarter which in itself makes me believe he will not. Don't count out Tipsarevic from being in his way. He's got an easy draw that could build him some confidence as well. Gasquet and Raonic are seeded to meet in the 4th round up top, but both haven't exactly been on fire. Gasquet though is a routine traveller to the 4th round in a lot of Slams. Tursunov could be the darkhorse quarterfinalist if he shakes off his Winston Salem loss. He's got the best form of anyone in this quarter.
NADAL QUARTER
1st ROUND UPSET ALERTS
Matosevic [+145] over Robredo
Matosevic owns a win over Robredo at Indian Wells this year and he played very well this Summer with quarterfinal appearances in Washington and Montreal. He beat the likes of Raonic and Paire as well as pushing Tursunov to three sets. Robredo was also pretty solid this Summer and he made the incredible run at Roland Garros to prove he can still compete. This should be a dandy either way.
Ramos [+220] over Tomic
Tomic is being well over valued IMO in this spot. Ramos surely has not carried his early season momentum forward, but he is a pretty good player on hard courts. Tomic really has not proven he is capable of winning consistently on this surface outside of Australia. Neither won much this Summer in the US swing, but Tomic's 6-4, 6-2 loss to Ginepri in Cincy is particularly troublesome if you're thinking of backing him. Ramos played well here last year, losing a five setter to Verdasco in the 2nd round and he showed tough in a five setter against Baghdatis in Australia. This match is much close to 50-50, making Ramos a nice try.
PARLAY FILLER
Mannarino [-250] over Zeballos
Zeballos has had a rib issue and has not played in a month. He's had very little success on hard courts, especially in the US. Mannarino still has room to grow, but he's played more on the surface this year and has some match prep in this Summer.
BREAKDOWN
Nadal has a very nice draw to move through to the semis. His only real test might come from Isner in the 4th round. Isner though may have to work past Monfils in round two which could be tough enough. Monfils though will be in a fight for fitness with a muscle injury forcing him out of the Winston-Salem Final. That likely leaves the door open for Isner to get to a potential third rounder against Kohlschreiber. Up top, Federer will be looking to make a statement - no doubt. The whispers of age and how he's lost it for good this time have become louder. Winners always love to shove it in their doubters faces. Federer may have a fight on his hands with Zemlja early as Zemlja has the talent to step up and beat an error prone Federer. In reality though, Federer has a good draw to see him to the quarters and another battle with Nadal. Nishikori is the other seed up top, but he's been pretty average lately and not made it past the third round here in his last three trips. Querrey is in this part of the draw, but doesn't seem close enough to really push past Federer - although he may get his chance in the 3rd round. If Nadal plays at the level he showed this Summer, this quarter is his and we should enjoy another Nadal-Federer clash if it happens because they will become rarer as time goes on.
QUARTERFINAL PREDICTIONS
Djokovic Quarter: Djokovic vs. Del Potro
Murray Quarter: Murray vs. Berdych
Ferrer Quarter: F.Lopez vs. Ferrer
Nadal Quarter: Nadal vs. Federer
SEMIFINALS
Del Potro over Murray
Nadal over Ferrer
FINAL
Nadal over Del Potro
FUTURES WATCH
Ferrer to Win Quarter +230
Nadal to Win +230
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There are 14 "upset" alerts listed above. +112 minimum for all and most +145 or higher. If you flat bet one unit per pick and go 6-8 or 7-7 at worst, I think we'll have made some sort of profit. Of course, will be digging more - but as of now - those stood out the most at first look over the draw.Comment -
Well I wouldn't get the hopes up too much about ferrer - he has been playing awfully since wimbledon and I don't think a week rest will make any difference. Actually I will be taking kyrgios +8.5 if my book gives me the lines. That said, don't think kyrgios can pull an upset but he will be definitely able to make 2 or more sets close, not to mention he could even win one.Comment -
EP, you always go all-out for your previews, but this one for the US Open is on a higher level. Thanks as always for spending your time and energy on this guide.
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agree...whatever the "story arc" angle that's workin' here (dos-equis or mayhem/hero or heel)...one thing remains the same...quality stuff...and this preview best ever...
brilliant format for each quarter: "upset alerts"/"parlay filler"/"misc."/"breakdown"Comment -
Also not trusting Ferrer for quarter at all, despite the @ 4 I've got.Comment -
EP, liked your old Avatar better. Gave me confidence in tailing you. You didn't touch on the Dodig Verdasco matchup. You don't see a potential upset there?Comment -
Reminds me of another pregnant-with-meaning "mind/matter" saying...regarding being hesitant to make an important change in your life cuz of giving a fukk what "others" may think/say...
..."if they really matter, then they don't mind...and if they mind, then they really don't matter"Last edited by fitguy67; 08-25-13, 02:13 PM.Comment -
I will admit, I am somewhat reserved on Ferrer more this Slam than others but he never plays that well in between Wimbledon and the US Open. So, I'm not putting a ton of weight into that. I mean look at his Wimbledon build-up, he lost his only match but was still there in the QFs.
I'm a big fan of Kyrgios, but this is unchartered territory for him. If this was Australia, I'd be all over him on the handicap at the least ... but being in the States and his first Slam main draw, it's tough to know how he is going to do. He showed more vulnerability on-serve as qualis went on with getting his 1st serve in. He has to get that above 60% or Ferrer will eventually eat him alive on 2nd serve.
That's really my issue with him is experience at this level. I do think that handicap of +8.5 is enticing, but he's lost some matches on lower levels this year on this surface by large margins. I'm just going to be an interested observer. I do think Kyrgios is going to be a player on tour very soon if they let him branch out and play Challengers and not just sit in Australia for most of the year.Comment -
It's possible. Dodig has played some decent tennis in the summer, taking sets off Haas & Del Potro. I do question his fitness level in best of fives though. He retired in Cincy due to the heat. It's not going to be overly warm in NY, but this is the first year he's really been able to perform well at Slams. Should likely be a good match. Overs also a potentially good shot here.Comment -
Thinking about putting a couple hundy on Olivetti. Can't pull the trigger though. All of his Q matches went to 3. But I mean, it's Stephane Robert.....
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ferrer made for grinding. in all his crappy pre us open losses you could see he was struggling, but the fate in his opponents did´nt fade because there was no 3rd set coming. there is quite a difference here.
nevertheloss i dont see him winning the quarter.
imo jano will be a big letdown as well...Comment -
Fwiw.. You said djokovic handled dimitrov all 4 times they played, but dimitrov beat him earlier this year in a 3-setter on clay in a masters if I recall correctly.. Maybe Madrid if memory serves me rightComment -
Good catch.Comment -
August 26th: US Open
Kukushkin-Martin Over 35.5 [-102]
Ramos +220
Bedene +460
Olivetti +155
Bellucci +155
Matosevic +165
All the dogs for this first round which will be played according to the preview outline will be risking 0.5 unit. My goal is to hit at least six and that should at minimum keep it around +0.00 or above depending on the ones that hit.
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US OPEN FUTURES
Ferrer to Win Quarter +225
Lopez to Win Quarter +2500 *0.25 unit
May be adding others as the tournament moves on perhaps, but this is where I am starting.
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Awesome preview write up EP
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Indeed. Good luck with Ferrer.
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Nishikori will go down today as well
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Bedene evens it and looks well up right nowComment -
And Nishikori is sent packing in straight sets..hahaComment -
Ramos is meat. Had this set to win & he is gassed/hurt. Would not be surprised if he quits after blowing this setComment -
Olivetti. Was the popular underdog pick of the day and he blows. 1break pt chance the entire match while Stephane Robert has had 10. Looks like a straight sets whipping.Comment
