EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 07:35 AM

Why would I want to bet on a 50-50 match between two guys who don't like this surface (Mayer/Hanescu)? It's a coin flip match. I wouldn't be surprised by any result in that one, be it Mayer rolling, Hanescu rolling or a five set marathon. There's absolutely nothing I like about that, so the smarties can show how smart they are. I'll play dumb.

**poet** · 08-28-13, 11:09 AM

Alright, didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. I just see people who have a good track record backing Mayer, their angle being Mayer is slightly better on this surface, has a better serve and is more motivated.

**Hardcoar** · 08-28-13, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by poet

Alright, didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. I just see people who have a good track record backing Mayer, their angle being Mayer is slightly better on this surface, has a better serve and is more motivated.

Whom now??

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by poet

Alright, didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. I just see people who have a good track record backing Mayer, their angle being Mayer is slightly better on this surface, has a better serve and is more motivated.

Well if they know who is more motivated for every match, then they should be winning. Don't really know why anyone would think either of these clowns is more motivated than the other - but to each his own.

**fitguy67** · 08-28-13, 11:51 AM

Brands and Anderson are tied 1 set each...and 1 game each in the 3rd set...

think i'll live-bet the farm on the obviously more motivated one...

this is a slam...who doesn't want to win each and every point here with every single pore of their being?

**poet** · 08-28-13, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Brands and Anderson are tied 1 set each...and 1 game each in the 3rd set...

think i'll live-bet the farm on the obviously more motivated one...

this is a slam...who doesn't want to win each and every point here with every single pore of their being?

Really? If that was the case then why to seasoned bettors use the expression, "he's just here to collect a paycheck?"

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 02:32 PM

Because people talk out of their ass 100% of the time?

If we all knew the exact mental state of athletes, we'd all be fukkin loaded.

**Noleafclover** · 08-28-13, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by poet

Really? If that was the case then why to seasoned bettors use the expression, "he's just here to collect a paycheck?"

Good question, why did these bettors claim a likely motivation discrepancy, did they say..?

**poet** · 08-28-13, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Because people talk out of their ass 100% of the time?

If we all knew the exact mental state of athletes, we'd all be fukkin loaded.

I'm not sure what we are arguing about. I don't think anyone is Nostradamus here but as bettors sometimes we try to gauge an athlete's mental state. Maybe they just got dumped by their partner, or their father has cancer, or they are looking forward to a playing at another tournament. If your are saying that bettors don't factor these things into the equation when betting, whether you think it's valid or not, (i.e., "they are just talking out of their ass") then you are either being stubborn or trying to argue for argument's sake.

**Noleafclover** · 08-28-13, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by poet

Maybe they just got dumped by their partner, or their father has cancer, or they are looking forward to a playing at another tournament. .

I get the sense they just said "x is more motivated" and left you guessing as to why. Not the type of person I'd be following. Run far away from people who make unsubstantiated claims as reasons for their bets.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 02:59 PM

There are certainly points to gauge motivation, but at the end of the day - it's still an absolute guess. People fade a lot of athletes when family members die .... they are just as likely to play the match or game of their lives as they are to pull a no-show.

My point about this Mayer-Hanescu one is that I don't see any increased motivational factors for either. They both like clay better. Neither is due for a long week here, so guys saying so and so will be more motivated is looney tunes. Just like guys saying there is some big edge in a match where a line is a pick 'em. It's their opinion for sure, but I could just as easily say Hanescu is the play because he spits better than Mayer and will be motivated to play another match so he can spit some more on the court.

**poet** · 08-28-13, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

There are certainly points to gauge motivation, but at the end of the day - it's still an absolute guess. People fade a lot of athletes when family members die .... they are just as likely to play the match or game of their lives as they are to pull a no-show.

My point about this Mayer-Hanescu one is that I don't see any increased motivational factors for either. They both like clay better. Neither is due for a long week here, so guys saying so and so will be more motivated is looney tunes. Just like guys saying there is some big edge in a match where a line is a pick 'em. It's their opinion for sure, but I could just as easily say Hanescu is the play because he spits better than Mayer and will be motivated to play another match so he can spit some more on the court.

Ok, that was a funny last line, (and I do agree with you about the pure guesswork) so I'll let you have the last word on this topic EP!

**poet** · 08-28-13, 03:20 PM

EP, looking ahead to tomorrow (if we ever get there), the lines on Tipsi (-190) and Dodig (-150) look too good to be true?

**matt05man** · 08-28-13, 03:43 PM

Anyone who puts money on Tips is out of their mind.

**poet** · 08-28-13, 03:50 PM

He usually shows up at Slams. Sure he could throw the match, or play poorly, but I don't think he will.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 03:59 PM

I thought Tipsarevic actually had a chance to string together a little bit this week. I would have liked to see him put away Cuevas in straights, but the fact that his serve was not broken was a good sign although he did have to work a little bit. Dodig-Donkey is gonna be a scrap. Both were inconsistent in their openers. I a little weary on Dodig's fitness because the weather in Cincy got to him. Overall, I'd probably take him - but not easy.

**poet** · 08-28-13, 04:10 PM

Yeah, he looked tired against Verdasco. But, on the other hand, I can see Donkeydenko retiring before the finish, for some fishy reason.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 05:10 PM

Well Brands is done. Saddled with another loss. Yeeeeeee haw.

**southpaw74** · 08-28-13, 05:31 PM

Yeah brands finished like a chump. False hope sucks

**southpaw74** · 08-28-13, 05:40 PM

And del Porto screwed us in the 2nd set. Tough to stay under 30 now

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 06:21 PM

Surprisingly, I am able to pick my nose still. Boogers.

Root for GGL to quit.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 06:50 PM

Well I'm out for tennis today. Expecting to go 0-fer. Post some more losers for you this evening. Enjoy that Fade Train. Choo Choo bitch.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 08:06 PM

Overall Profit: +6.05
US Open: -7.28

Try to beat that. On top of that, Zopp may cash as a big dog - one I marked in my preview and skipped. Turd Ferguson.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 08:14 PM

On the plus side, if you're fading this nice streak - you should be ready to retire. No where to go but up?

**poet** · 08-28-13, 08:44 PM

Not to rub salt into the wound EP, but what's a unit for you? It's been brutal, most people are losing. Dare I call it mayhem? Which brings me to my next point, please, for the love of God, go back to the most interesting man. We don't need more mayhem, we need a calm, cool hand.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by poet

Not to rub salt into the wound EP, but what's a unit for you? It's been brutal, most people are losing. Dare I call it mayhem? Which brings me to my next point, please, for the love of God, go back to the most interesting man. We don't need more mayhem, we need a calm, cool hand.

I don't bet big amounts on tennis. Unit is usually going to be $100. Honestly this first week with a higher # of plays, I've mostly been doing $50.

**ParlayininHTown** · 08-28-13, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

On the plus side, if you're fading this nice streak - you should be ready to retire. No where to go but up?

You're getting murdered in tennis lately. I'm getting murdered in soccer lately.

Wanna switch for a day?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-28-13, 11:57 PM

August 29th - US OPEN
Parlay: Tipsarevic + F.Lopez [-101]
Nadal-Dutra Da Silva Under 26 [-117]
Robredo-Dancevic Over 36.5 [-109]

**Bet10Heinekens** · 08-29-13, 12:00 AM

no worries EP, I think majority of the board had a bad day 3

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-29-13, 12:33 AM

I know it's a marathon, but two of three days have been pathetic from my picking standpoint. Plenty of time to churn forward and erase the shit. Now it's about adjusting on the fly. Simple goal by the end of the weekend is to have the deficit close to gone.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-29-13, 09:20 AM

Glad I waited to book Robredo-Dancevic. Total drops to 36.5. Booking now.

**lucasdawg** · 08-29-13, 09:28 AM

EP what do you think about roberdo ML?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-29-13, 10:47 AM

Dancevic is capable of an upset. May not be consistent enough, but I think its going to be a battle.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 08-29-13, 03:55 PM

Any thoughts on the Isner?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-29-13, 04:00 PM

If it goes to a 5th set, Isner will be in trouble IMO. He's still not very good at finishing in those situations. Tie Breaks should favor Isner, but it's going to be a small margin for error as usual. If Monfils is pumping his 1st serve in, this is a coin flip.