EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

[EaglesPhan36]

He is all serve. Surprised it has not held up better, but young players in their first Slams suck sometimes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like my usual first day rape job at Slams will continue.

[adrenalinerush]

Agreed. He might as well quit. Too bad because he was looking great.

[adrenalinerush]

Ramos that is...

[EaglesPhan36]

I give him credit for fighting through, but the outcome is inevitable at this point. He can't do anything on return, so as soon as Tomic pushed him on-serve like this game, that's that.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was waiting for a little shift in the # on this one, going to give it a ride.

Add...
Verdasco-Dodig Over 40.5 [-107]

[EaglesPhan36]

Typical of how Day #1 goes for me at Slams. Kukushkin-Martin Over is 35.5, finishes at 35. Martin up breaks in both the 2nd and 3rd, craps them away. Still ... needs one hold to get to 36 with a TB. Martin broken .. of course.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah suck it! 1-6 baby.

[EaglesPhan36]

Best thing that happened outside of winning the total was Gulbis getting punted out. If Ferrer gets himself together, that just removed a danger in his part of the quarter. I still think Mr.Consistency will be there late in this draw. Vamos Dah-veed.

[davopnz]

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +11.11
US Open Qualis: -2.52

So begins another Slam in the red. Guess I just don't feel right without challenging myself to dig out of a hole. Other than Ramos collapsing, the dog tries were rubbish mostly. Totals split, painfully short of getting both. Easy to be discouraged after Day One, but stick with it. Been there as many times as anyone and you can work your way out of it if you don't panic and chase. On the plus side, Ferrer did what Ferrer needed to do today. Establish himself again against a hammer of a serve. Gulbis losing was a bonus for that quarter and the future.

[EaglesPhan36]

Going to do a little more mixing & matching on the dogs from the preview than yesterday. Not everyone I think is as strong as others, so there will be some I skip and different ones I add that were not on the preview. Yesterday, I felt like the ones I had outlined were all worth a go. That worked out ... not so well.

August 27th - US OPEN
Parlay: Nieminen + Becker [+106]
Almagro-Istomin Over 39.5 [-113]
Fabbiano +8.5 [-101]
S.Johnson -150
Gimeno-Traver +210 *0.5 unit
Kudla +120 *0.5unit

[fitguy67]

thanks for the 6 plays, ep...

but why not even one "obvious massive gift" among them ?

[Chaz22]

Let's filter them a bit....

1) hate parlay's - most likely one of them will fail
2) Good pick on Almagro over
3) Wow, I did not even notice this Fabbiano guy....but 8.5 is huge.....I will follow that for sure
4) Steve will kick ass today, but odds are weak to stay the least...so no go on that
5) Gimeno-Traver pick money waster. Lu is too good for him. Worst pick from these 6.
6) Denis should win, odds are nice. This is take-able.


3 of EP 6 picks are worthy. Take them!

[fitguy67]

you can always make a good case for cherry-pickin'...but it seldom works out over the long-haul

very similar to how a stock-market player tryin' to get fancy and "time his picks" almost always seriously under-performs the guy who just buys every payday...the well-documented phenomenon of "dollar-cost-averaging" soundly beating attempts to "time the market"...(or similarly how just a tiny % of "active" fund-managers are able to beat "passive" index-funds)

Murphy's Law loves to crap on micro-managers/cherry-pickers/market-timers/play-filterers...just as the old expression puts it..."Man plans...God Laughs"

anyhow, good luck with your edited subset of EP's plays (who clearly doesn't give a Mayhem-fukk what u play)

[Chaz22]

nice peace of thought there, fitguy....

can you post anything else besides "thank you" and the sh.it yu wrote up there ??? i do not care about Murphy's law...it does not produce any money....Give us some input about tennis picks?

I think EP has some knowledge, I just add my thoughts about them picks....you gave nothing...

thanks.

[CheeseBurger-Yam]

[QUOTE=EaglesPhan36;19460234]US OPEN FUTURES
Ferrer to Win Quarter +225
Lopez to Win Quarter +2500 *0.25 unit

Sup EP, did you watch how Lopez played last night? Do you think he still got a chance to win the quarter?
i just wanna hear your opinion.

[EaglesPhan36]

I thought he was solid. He is a longshot like the odds suggest, but the top half of this quarter is open for the taking between Gasquet, Tursunov, Flo & Raonic. I thought playing Raonic vs. one of the other two could work out better We will see. Klahn won't be easy in round two.

[fitguy67]

Fabbiano did his job nicely (and had the sense to not pull any 3rd-set heroics)...gud start to day 2...

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah he fought hard. Had lots of chances to fold up.

[EaglesPhan36]

US OPEN FUTURES
Ferrer to Win Quarter +225
Lopez to Win Quarter +2500 *0.25 unit

May be adding others as the tournament moves on perhaps, but this is where I am starting.

This is gonna look real sexy in another few minutes. Ferrer's two biggest potential roadblocks to the quarters are gonna be gone in Round Uno.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright Mugro. You're do for an oppo choke for once. Usually Mugro doing the 2-0 choke to lose in 5. How about we reverse that curse fukkstick. Or quit ... I would accept your Ronald McDonald retirement as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

I feel like a teenager holding drugs for someone else on this one. Waited all day with it in my pocket and decided I'm turning it over to the cops.

Add...

Monaco-Mayer Over 38 [-105]

[EaglesPhan36]

There's one Mugro.

[EaglesPhan36]

And that brief bit of hope out the window. Muggy McMugMug

[EaglesPhan36]

I can see my day taking an absolute nose dive into the shitter. Kudla trying to give me a shit fit just like at Wimbledon. Monaco getting smoked. Weeeee!

[PharaohUB]

I can see my day taking an absolute nose dive into the shitter. Kudla trying to give me a shit fit just like at Wimbledon. Monaco getting smoked. Weeeee!

Maybe Monaco Will Retire And You Will Get Your Bet Back

[EaglesPhan36]

I sent him a thank you note on Twitter!

[EaglesPhan36]

Well the parlay cashes. Johnson though has choked away the 3rd set TB and trails 2-1. He also blew a break lead in the 2nd set that he dropped, so feasibly he could have been in the locker room. I love this guy and hate him all at the same time.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +10.34
US Open: -2.99

Well, got lucky on the Monaco retirement and then Johnson sticks a shiv in my ass again. He's getting closer to my no-fly list at this point. Still got the potential to be pretty good, but he seems to choke a little much. .500 record wise, but down about half a unit because of the Johnson juice. Only pick I would say I was very pissed with the result would be the Istomin-Almagro one. Four sets wasn't surprising, but I expected some tighter sets there - but that's the way the ball bounces sometimes. Churn on.

[OhMyEli]

Whatcha got for us? I always miss no brainers early on

[EaglesPhan36]

August 28th [US Open]
Brands +5 [-112]
Parlay: Hewitt + Melzer [-107]
Del Potro-Garcia Lopez Under 30 [-110]
Duckworth +150 *Risking 0.5 unit
Malisse +200*Risking 0.5 unit

[poet]

I like the pics but they would sound even better coming from the most interesting man in the world.

[poet]

EP, some smart betters are backing Mayer, but you didn't touch it. Why?

[Hardcoar]

EP, some smart betters are backing Mayer, but you didn't touch it. Why?

Whom now?