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Will update with Futures prices & where my money will be going for those as they get posted and of course during the week when I add them if they are not initial investments. In the mean time, shitty shitty bang bang previews.
ATP Bogota Preview
The hard court stop on tour this week. As a 250, the big boys are not here. Tipsarevic, Anderson, Sijsling & Roger-Vasselin are the top four seeds. This is the first year of this event. If you go back and look at the players who have won 250-level events this year, it's a fairly even split between guys who are top three seeds/big names and some outsider upsets. Of late, the outsiders have been doing some damage. The last five ATP 250s have seen a winner who was not seeded in the top four and in 4/5, an unseeded player won. Mahut and Berlocq being the latest two this last week. Fognini's win Stuttgart was the only seed in that span and he was #5.
TIPSAREVIC QUARTER
If you can find anything to like about the top seed here, let me know. Tipsarevic's free fall out of the Top 10 this year may have been predictable, but his lack of results overall has been stunning. Health had some to do with it, but his inconsistency or lack of motivation makes him a massive question mark. Certainly this quarter could be won with ease if he finds some form. Malisse is the other seed and then it's a Challenger de jour in the rest of the quarter. The intriguing candidate would be a homestanding Falla who draws Malisse in the 1st. Bemelmans could be a good fade against the local wildcard Barrientos. Bemelmans had to retire from Newport qualis last week with a hamstring issue. If he is healed, he could be a sleeper because he's probably got enough game to match some on this level. If not though, his exit could be quick even if Barrientos isn't a hard court guy.
ROGER-VASSELIN QUARTER
Another very Challengeresque quarter led by the Frenchman. His game has looked better on hard courts this year, including his run to the Delray Beach Final earlier in the season. Bedene is the other seed here. He could be a candidate for a surprise run here. He hasn't been able to parlay his Challenger success to the ATP level, but let's face it in a 250 - there are a lot of guys here who he has seen in Challengers before. He comes in off a semifinal Challenger appearance on this surface and should be able to compete in his part of the quarter. Pospisil-Przysiezny is a good first rounder between guys with power serves. If Bedene falters, look for one of those guys to push ERV in the QFs. This quarter looks to me like it could produce a "surprise" semifinalist.
SIJSLING QUARTER
Sijsling produced a suprisingly productive grass court season, but now has the quick switch to a new surface. He has yet to really breakout on hard courts outside of Challengers, so this is an opportunity to continue his improved form of late. This is a tough quarter though. Karlovic looms as his 1st up if he can get past a qualifier. Mannarino leads the top of the quarter. Like most here, he has done good work at Challenger hard courts - but is looking to translate that to the ATP level. He gets the Colombian Gonzalez first up. Gonzalez is more of a dirt baller, but he did win a few in the Ecuador Challenger a couple weeks ago. Still, at his best - Mannarino over matches him on this surface. Mannarino would then get the winner in a battle of qualifiers, so his draw suits him to a less taxing run than Sijsling. Seems like a two horse race here. I'd give Karlovic a chance - but I think match fitness is still a problem for him in his comeback, although if he is serving like he did in Newport, he won't be someone that any of these players want to play.
ANDERSON QUARTER
Anderson to me should be considered the favorite. He needs to start fast on his first match post-Wimbledon, but has a quarter where I don't see anyone able to match his game on this surface. Giraldo is the top seed in the other half. Hard courts aren't really his thing, although he fights hard against most. Other than Giraldo, we're looking at middle tier Challenger level guys who are more geared to clay. Even without much match play of late, Anderson not winning this quarter would be a massive upset.
Sneaky Non-Seeds to Watch
Falla, Pospisil & KarlovicComment -
ATP Hamburg Preview
Juan Monaco is your defending champion and 5th seed. Federer is back in action as the top seed. Haas, Almagro & Janowicz round out the top four seeds.
FEDERER QUARTER
Federer has a superb 29-4 mark here, but has not played in Hamburg in five years. His quarter has some tough outs. Dolgopolov leads the bottom half of the quarter with Gulbis and F.Lopez as the other seeds. A lot of good 1st rounders: Lorenzi-Brands, Kubot-Hajek, L.Mayer-Struff and F.Mayer-Davydenko. In limited clay action, Federer has shown decent this year. Quarters @ Rolando Garros. Finals @ Rome. 2nd match out @ Madrid. He should be good until the 3rd round where Gulbis looms. Bottom of the quarter looks open. Dolgopolov is always a coin flip as to whether he will or won't make a run. His season has been blah, he is a prime upset candidate in his first up. One of the homeys, Mayer or Struff, could be a candidate to squeeze into the QFs. Even if he hasn't been his best this year, I'd give a small edge to Federer making the semis. The winner of that Mayer-Davydenko opener could be an intriguing darkhorse.
JANOWICZ QUARTER
This quarter looks wide open with Janowicz, Verdasco, Robredo & Chardy as seeds. Verdasco comes in with the best form, but he could also be a bit gassed after a long week in Bastad where he looked fatigued in the Final. He does have a bye, so he can be afforded some rest. Janowicz could have Haase first-up who has been a pretty solid foe on clay this season. Robredo will be discarded by many after a flop in Bastad, but that's one match coming off grass. Robredo's form on clay for the most part suggest he should bounce back - although he is 0-4 all time in Hamburg. Delbonis or Reister will be a tough 1st match. Chardy donked out early last week, but could take advantage if Robredo checks out early again. The Janowicz-Verdasco potential 3rd rounder could be the decider in this quarter.
ALMAGRO QUARTER
Almagro will look to bounce back after a short stay in Bastad last week. Monaco is on the top half of the quarter and also did not show much in Bastad. Unfortunately, his draw looks like it will preclude him from a repeat in Hamburg. He could have Monfils first-up, Paire next and then Almagro or Youzhny in the quarters. Very difficult to see him make it through, but with points to defend at least his effort level should be higher. Youzhny is the X-factor in this bracket to me. He seems the prototypical boom or bust in this spot. Garcia-Lopez or Gimeno-Traver first. Neither Spaniard may beat him, but I think they will insure he either shows his best or is on upset alert. Almagro must think the Gods are aligned against him. In Bastad, it was a bad match-up against Verdasco that stood in his way in his 2nd match. This time, it could be Youzhny who is 5-0 all-time againt him and beat him on clay in Madrid this year. As such, I think Youzhny is the one to watch in this quarter. If there is a darkhorse, unseeded player here, Monfils could be it.
HAAS QUARTER
Haas' surprisingly poor performance to Fognini last week in Stuttgart could be beneficial this week. Fognini is in the same quarter again, so the revenge factor could fuel him although Fognini would have plenty of work to do just to get to a QF meeting with Haas. Fognini comes in red hot with a title in his pocket, but a potentially tough 1st match against Ramos or Zeballos with Ramos being the bigger challenge IMO. Seppi is the highest seed in that portion of the bracket. Fognini has owned him recently on dirt though. Getting a bye and short travel within Germany should keep Fognini from being a straight fade off the title. The draw quite frankly should see him into the quarters where the rematch with Haas could take place. Haas will have to be ready with Kavcic or Hanescu first-up. Berlocq also floats in this bottom half. Coming off a title and going against a German wildcard in Bachinger = interesting spot. Bachinger has never had great results on clay, but that was Berlocq's first ATP level title. The emotional let down + a hometown boy potentially getting a boost from the crowd could mean an unlikely upset. I'd be willing to go against Berlocq in that spot and then again against Klizan should he survive.
O.G. Futures
Haas +800
Youzhny +3000 *0.5 unit
Monitored Futures
Janowicz +1500
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Thoughts on Davydenko vs Mayer? Really like Davydenko to win. He seems to play well against Mayer. Won every time on clay.Comment -
July 15th
ATP Hamburg: Hajek +125
ATP Hamburg: Tursunov +3 [-110]
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Mayer-Davydenko odds seem like Mayer should be getting slammed more and the line hasn't budged. I'm sitting that one out. On form, of course Mayer is the pick ... but there is something about Davydenko's game that gives him issues obviously from their head-2-head. Mayer is just as big a head case as the Donkey, so you boys enjoy the nut sweat on the outcome.Comment -
LOL, interesting analysis. I see that the line did move from -115 to -125 on Mayer, so hopefully this is a good sign. Maybe Davydenko is betting on himself to lose, again. This should be best chance in making some money these days. Streaks are made to be broken, see Da Vinci's win today.
Glad you are also on Tursunov, I took his ML for 0.5u. I know that he is really trying to get some wins to guarantee his stay in ~top 70.Last edited by frugalgambler; 07-15-13, 12:33 AM.Comment -
Did you see odds swing on Tursunov? +175 to +225Comment -
Wow that is an amazing swing. Handicap hasn't changed tho. Any reason for the big swing?Comment -
It's just further proof that for every one match where everyone freaks out on line moves & the results match that, that thete is one where the line moves and it doesn't mean shit.Comment -
Whether Tursunov wins or loses is inconsequential now. People seem to believe line moves = injuries or fixes or one sided endings. This is anything but that. If th logic of the line move = results, then Tursunov should have rolled over and lost already.Comment -
Adding....
ATP Bogota Qualifying
Guccione -155Comment -
Whenever you're betting against Pablo Andujar, you know your bet is as good as won when it loses 1:st.
Pablo and Philip sitting in a tree...
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It's a guaranteed winner now. Now I'm feeling like I shouldve been greedy and just taken the ML like I was thinking. Ah well The -108 is a good returnComment -
Kubot hadn't' done much on dirt in main draws in the last year. His qualis matches were also an indicator. He was struggling on serve and had to grind through three setters. Hajek may not be much more of s challenger level guy on dirt, but he had a run last year around this time and generally provides max effort against players he can beat. I really think if Kubot had not made the quarters at Wimbledon, that the price would have reflected more of a pick em. Books probably took advantage of the name today to set thatComment -
Any insight on Marchenko/ Viola match 9 tips for Viola on Ti 1 for Marchenko- Marchenko should crush him any insight was going to take the -3 but now I'm doubting maybe the under?Comment -
Thanks for explaining. After you explanation, this pick looks so easy. Too bad I did not tail you here. Also, Davydenko crapped his pants again. This is hilarious, he stated that he will concentrate on clay to earn some points and skip grass altogether. The dude is delusional, he does not have stamina for clay matches any more. Now, on hard he can still be a bit dangerous.Comment -
Starting for Week of July 15th
OPEN PARLAY (7 slots)
Slot #1: 7-15 Giraldo -715
Slot #2: 7-15 Cabal-Farah -375Comment -
Dancevic super risky. Retired from his last match and might as well be Samuel L. Jackson's character in Unbreakable. Dude gets hurt about every other month. Girlado was much safer IMO. I don't bang too many super high lines for this Open Parlays, but getting a useful one to start is good in my book. Salamanca is on a torrid losing skid too.Comment -
Overall Profit: +5.21Comment -
Cabal and Farah must have done some blow before the match or can't wait to do some. Playing like they need to be out of the stadium in under an hour.Comment -
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Sweaty Balls!!!Comment -
OPEN PARLAY [7 slots]
Slot #1: 7-15 Giraldo -715
Slot #2: 7-15 Cabal-Farah -375
Slot #3: 7-16 [Hamburg] Almagro -500Comment -
How can you back Almagro at those odds? He has been beyond brutal the last 2 months. I mean, it's Kamke, he should get through, but...Comment -
July 16th
ATP Hamburg: Delbonis -105
ATP Hamburg: Paire-Montanes Over 22 [-117]
ATP Bogota: Falla -105
ATP Hamburg: Bachinger +265 *0.5 unit
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I'm not sure where you see beyond brutal. His last two losses have been to in-form players, Verdasco being someone who has always matched him tough. 4th round at the French. Final in Barcelona and then a lull before the French.
Whole point of the Open Parlay is to be able to use plays like this to craft a decent payout. My mode of operation is to find the play I think is the best of the day to add into it. Do that all week and if you find the right spots, you have a payoff at the end of six picks.
Better for me than slamming 2-3 plays like this on the same day to try and get a payoff while forcing a pick.Comment
