EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

**ParlayininHTown** · 07-20-13, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Watching some of this Bogota tourney on replay. It really is a Challenger in disguise. Crowd so small for the non-Colombian matches it's funny. It's like a high school tennis tournament with 12 people watching. At least the final should be populated with Falla in there. Rootin' for Dr.Ivo to get it done. Only pissed that 5Dimes did not update tourney futures like they did with Hamburg after each round because I was on the Doc's jock this week after he won a couple and he looked locked in motivation wise.

It's amazing that a group bought this tournament and thought putting it in Colombia would be a great idea. Who the F is going to want to play in Colombia during the dog days of the season, other than Challenger-esque players?

Ivo played a solid match. He served big for most of the match, but was a little sketchy with too many double faults. To Ivo's credit, he was able to shake off a mini meltdown in the second-set tiebreak and take control of the third set.

I only saw bits and pieces of Falla's match, so I'll probably catch some of the replay if the kill doesn't knock me out ... Apparently Pospisil's serve abandoned him at the wrong time. I know Falla knocked out Tipsy, but I'm more impressed with Ivo's play this week.

On another note, does the tourney winner get that crappy looking Hyundai SUV? Seems like an insult to the champion, but maybe they're like luxury vehicles in Colombia.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-13, 08:04 PM

ATP Atlanta Preview
The first tournament in the US Open Hard Court series. Isner leads the seeds and we'll witness the return of Mardy Fish. Fish has been out of action since last year's US Open. He's proclaiming himeself fit and mentally sound. Rounding out the top four seeds are Anderson, Dodig & Sijsling.

ISNER QUARTER
Isner has played well in this tournament, but never won in three tries. His draw should be conducive to a semifinal trip at minimum. His quarter features Donskoy as the #8 seed which should tell you the strength or lack thereof for this field. Bogota finalist Falla is a floater who may meet Isner in the 2nd round. James Blake is also in this quarter. Very difficult to see Isner not advancing if he is focused.

DODIG QUARTER
This quarter to me looks like it could be won by just about anyone. Dodig leads the seeds. Hewitt opposes him as the 7th seed. Some interesting wildcards in Kudla & Rhyne Williams who dance in the 1st round against each other. Berankis also merits watching here even if his season has been subpar. 250s have been a place where he has had a few runs on this surface. Dodig's big serve seems like it should yield better results on this sort of surface, but he's just under .500 for his career on outdoor hard courts. He has had a decent season on the surface, but this is also his first match since Wimbledon. Hewitt is the X-factor in this quarter. If his confidence from Newport and a solid grass season is high, he could surprise here. A darkhorse would be the winner of the Kudla-Williams 1st rounder

SIJSLING QUARTER
Sijsling is boom or bust here. Karlovic took him out in Bogota, so he's had plenty of rest time. He could face a big challenge in his 1st match against Ryan Harrison or Marinko Matosevic. That is a definite upset opportunity. Fish populates the top of the quarter as the 6th seed. He's not treated to an easy first-up with Michael Russell. That is another upset possibility because there's no telling where Fish's game is going to be. Sock & Giraldo is the other 1st rounder in this quarter which looks like it could be an upside down, fun ride with a suprise semifinalist perhaps. This is a potentially nice spot for Sock if he can get that opening win. With Fish's question marks, the top of the quarter could go to someone like Russell or Sock who would be in line to move to the semis if Sijsling isn't up to the task this week.

ANDERSON QUARTER
Anderson is going to be dismissed by many after losing early to Karlovic last week. I'm not ready to think Anderson won't be a factor this week. His loss to Karlovic looks less feeble considering the good Doctor's title run in Bogota. Funny thing is we could see a rematch in the 2nd round and I would count on Anderson exacting revenge. Karlovic likely won't be in for a long week following last week's title. In fact, check out which qualifier he draws first because he may check out in his opener. Yen Hsun-Lu is the 5th seed on top of this quarter. Lu is off a Challenger title in Beijing on a hard court. If he wins, he draws Lacko or Istomin in the 2nd round. If someone could use a tournament like this to get on track, it's Istomin. His 2013 has been terrible. It's a good surface for his game though, so if there is a darkhorse in this quarter - he might be it.

FUTURES WATCH
Isner +300
Sijsling +1400
Sock +3500

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-13, 09:17 PM

ATP Gstaad Preview
Roger Federer leads the field as he returns to Gstaad for the first time since 2004. He's off an upset loss in Hamburg last week, also the first week with his much ballyhooed new racquet. Bellucci is the defending Champion and a non-seeded player this week. The top four are rounded out with Wawrinka, Tipsarevic & Monaco.

FEDERER QUARTER
Federer will probably appreciate this draw much more than last week. Bautista-Agut is the 8th seed on the bottom of the quarter. He has played decently the last few weeks, but will be staring an upset minded Swiss in Laaksonen. Laaksonen may not be quite ready for regular wins at the ATP level, but this is a potential scalp spot. Federer could see Brands again if he survives Chiudinelli in his opener. Dustin Brown & Hanescu are featured in the other first rounder. Although it's become more of a crapshoot as to how far Federer will go in tournaments these days, this sets up well for him to push into the semifinals.

MONACO QUARTER
Monaco comes off a fairly solid week in Hamburg, so his confidence will be up. It's a fairly competitve quarter with Youzhny as the bottom seed. Youzhny was upset in his 1st up last week in Hamburg, so he'll be looking for better form as he opens against Mathieu. Garcia-Lopez faces off against Challenger regular Ungur, while Andujar gets another Romanian in Crivoi. I won't be totally surprised of one of the Romanians scores a win against one of the Spaniards. Monaco certainly is the best on dirt in this quarter. Crivoi could fit your mold as a qualifier who gets hot and makes a run if Monaco isn't prepared to invest himself this week, but I'd be more apt to look at one of the Spaniards if there is a darkhorse here.

TIPSAREVIC QUARTER
You can barely get Tipsarevic's name off the tongue without thinking about fading him. Going from hard courts to clay in a quick turnaround from Bogota doesn't inspire much to stray from that idea. His first up will be Haase or Joao Souza. Haase has been playing very competitively on this surface and if he starts quick, he could win a few here. Rosol leads the top of the quarter as the 7th seed. Tough match to start against Granollers. Rosol has been since the switch back to dirt, so Granollers should have a great shot to win. Delbonis & Bellucci in an interesting battle of non-seeds. Bellucci the defending Champ and Delbonis off the surprising run in Hamburg. With the way the title match twisted on Delbonis, I would not be surprised to see him having trouble surviving this one. Bellucci hasn't played well lately in coming back from an ab injury, but he's won here twice and that may boost his confidence. If he doesn't get caught by Delbonis, he very well could run through this quarter in what should be a very wide open bracket. Expecting an unseeded player to advance.

WAWRINKA QUARTER
While Federer is the bigger name Swiss at this home event, Wawrinka may have the better chance to win. His draw is tailor-made for a semifinal run if Wawrinka cares, but that could be the issue as Wawrinka has a poor record here. F.Lopez is the seed on top, opening against a Hernych. Typically, Hernych is not great on this surface, but he did make the quarters here last year out of qualis - the same place he started against this year. By far, that was the highlight of his clay court play in years. Lopez has made the quarters two straight years here, so I expect he will play well. Stakhovsky, Gimeno-Traver, de Schepper and Kuznetsov fill out the quarter. Kuznetsov is a good young talent on this surface, but he has yet to harness that into much on the ATP main draw level. With Stakhovsky struggling though, he may have a shot to score a win.

FUTURES WATCH
Monaco +1000
Bellucci +4000

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-13, 09:19 PM

Those are the two tourneys I'll be focusing on. After this week, it's all hard courts and just one tournament a week which will make it very simple to focus. Will utilize the Open Parlay again this week.

With the futures again, I watch at least one match for the guys I am looking at before jumping on a price. Always post when I jump on the price and any hedging, etc. Good luck this week!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-21-13, 11:10 PM

July 22nd
ATP Gstaad: Kuznetsov -120
ATP Atlanta: Harrison-Matosevic Over 22 [-110]

OPEN PARLAY: WEEK OF JULY 22nd [7 slots]
Slot #1: 7-22 [Gstaad] F.Lopez -350

**Hardcoar** · 07-22-13, 04:36 AM

Terrific writing Phanboy! If I could I'd chip more than two points a day in your direction! ; )

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 08:53 AM

Add...

ATP Doubles Gstaad: Andujar/Garcia-Lopez (-110)
*0.5 unit

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 02:34 PM

Add...

WTA Stanford: Vandeweghe -140

**swavings** · 07-22-13, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

July 22nd
ATP Gstaad: Kuznetsov -120
ATP Atlanta: Harrison-Matosevic Over 22 [-110]

OPEN PARLAY: WEEK OF JULY 22nd [7 slots]
Slot #1: 7-22 [Gstaad] F.Lopez -350

Nice all on the two plays.

As long as there is no retirement the over has hit!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 07:06 PM

Overall Profit: +12.76

**alpinepetey** · 07-22-13, 07:19 PM

Nicely done EP!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 10:29 PM

July 23rd
ATP Gstaad: Bellucci -140
ATP Gstaad: Chiudinelli +4 [-135]
ATP Atlanta: Sock -160 *To Win 0.5 unit

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 10:30 PM

OPEN PARLAY: WEEK OF JULY 22nd [7 slots]
Slot #1: 7-22 [Gstaad] F.Lopez -350
Slot #2: 7-23 [Gstaad] Haase -225

**lucasdawg** · 07-22-13, 10:40 PM

on haase also, what you think about D Brown v V Hanescu

**GoBlue77** · 07-22-13, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

July 23rd
ATP Gstaad: Bellucci -140
ATP Gstaad: Chiudinelli +4 [-135]
ATP Atlanta: Sock -160 *To Win 0.5 unit

would like to hear your thoughts on bellucci?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 10:44 PM

Not a big fan of Brown on clay, although he did have the run through qualis and a win last year.

Hanescu is hardly hardly immune to a flop at this level. No bet for me, but I could understand a shot on Brown.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

would like to hear your thoughts on bellucci?

From the preview above,

Delbonis & Bellucci in an interesting battle of non-seeds. Bellucci the defending Champ and Delbonis off the surprising run in Hamburg. With the way the title match twisted on Delbonis, I would not be surprised to see him having trouble surviving this one. Bellucci hasn't played well lately in coming back from an ab injury, but he's won here twice and that may boost his confidence. If he doesn't get caught by Delbonis, he very well could run through this quarter in what should be a very wide open bracket. Expecting an unseeded player to advance.

**ParlayininHTown** · 07-22-13, 10:49 PM

I like the Lucci pick, EP. Boner might be hung over after letting that title in Hamburg get away from him, and I think putting him at plus money is a sign that the books aren't confident in a positive response.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-22-13, 10:56 PM

I mean he certainly he can win because Bellucci isn't in great form, but he played a lot of matches last week and it's a real quick turnaround off a pretty devastating loss in the Final. Guys involved in Finals the week before don't always get caught first-up, as evidenced with Fognini - but I think you can look at each Championship match participant and probably find an angle for one or the other. Either riding a hot streak or going against a guy who might be flat worn out.

For me this week, Delbonis is a fade because of the amount of tennis and the way he lost. Karlovic likely in ATL is a fade as well. Third straight week of play for him, coming off a big title win after his long battle with meningitis. Now he has to adjust to the heat of Atlanta. Ebden qualified to play him and got in what amounted to a practice session for Karlovic by playing Guccione who is a B-/C+ version of Dr.Ivo albeit a lefty which was probably tougher on him to begin with.

**ParlayininHTown** · 07-22-13, 11:02 PM

I wouldn't ride Ivo in this tourney. His serve won't pop in ATL like it did in the altitude of Bogota. You make a great point about the heat. The humidity will be especially rough, and I just can't see how he goes deep like he did last week.

Lucci is kind of risky due to form, but it's not like Delbonis has been making quarterfinals regularly and is used to this workload. The mental drain of losing that final could also get to him, but it's also plausible that he gains confidence from such a great run. Sucks for him that nothing but hard-court events are coming up on the calendar.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 09:16 AM

Delbonis survives. Will probably go against him again depending on what can be done with Granollers price. Bellucci did not play great and was on position late on the 2nd to extend the match, but failed on four break points. Of course, delbonis let him off the hook on a similar situation too.

**Hardcoar** · 07-23-13, 09:20 AM

How about D-Mo' over Sock @ 2.1 Phanboy?

**OhMyEli** · 07-23-13, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

July 23rd
ATP Gstaad: Bellucci -140
ATP Gstaad: Chiudinelli +4 [-135]
ATP Atlanta: Sock -160 *To Win 0.5 unit

What did you see in Chiudinelli? Is he a player to look at going forward or is it because he is Swiss? Looks like a rout here but he is a player I know nothing about and typically youre good on the lesser known players.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 10:52 AM

Combo of things. Brands doesn't always show up for non-German hosted events, especially on this level on dirt. Chiudinelli is nothing special, but he has always efforted well at this tourney on a surface that does nothing for him really.

**OhMyEli** · 07-23-13, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Combo of things. Brands doesn't always show up for non-German hosted events, especially on this level on dirt. Chiudinelli is nothing special, but he has always efforted well at this tourney on a surface that does nothing for him really.

Good call bud, he made this one competitive at least. Hopefully he can win 3 in the final set here.

**OhMyEli** · 07-23-13, 11:32 AM

Ah well, I'll take the push in the end, I'm very surprised he gave it a little push.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 11:32 AM

Meh. Pushed.

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

OPEN PARLAY: WEEK OF JULY 22nd [7 slots]
Slot #1: 7-22 [Gstaad] F.Lopez -350
Slot #2: 7-23 [Gstaad] Haase -225

Slot #2 clears.

**Hardcoar** · 07-23-13, 12:20 PM

Any opinion on 'dat doublulz Phanboy?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 12:42 PM

Your typing hurts my brain. Not s big fan today of the dubs. I wouldnt back either favorite though. Would take the Harrisons if anything because Dodig-Melo have not been great on hard courts this year. But outside of last years US Open, Harrisons very raw still as partners, but they seem eager to be better.

**Hardcoar** · 07-23-13, 02:09 PM

Ok my bad man, haha! I'm thinking of Demo/Sa over Sock/Blake @ 2.1.

What do you think of that bet?

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 03:01 PM

Add...

ATP Atlanta: Donskoy-Ram Under 22.5 (-105)

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-23-13, 05:10 PM

Add...

ATP Atlanta: Russell +110
0.5 unit

**Gus Fring** · 07-23-13, 05:13 PM

Sock sucks. Fucken loses in straights

**horja1** · 07-23-13, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Gus Fring

Sock sucks. Fucken loses in straights

Sock is so bad I have no idea why he is playing tennis ... every rally that goes past 3 shots he has less than 10% chance to win it ... he only won 10 points on Giraldo's serve and I think 2 of those were DFs