Sock @ 51
Levine @ 67
Opinions on each way selections for those, anyone? (half odds, wins if selection makes the finals).
Levine @ 67
Opinions on each way selections for those, anyone? (half odds, wins if selection makes the finals).
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Comment -
Overall Profit: +3.10
Another Slam in the books. Day to day picks had me in the red, but the futures blasted all that out of the way. The overall profit listed is for the day-to-day though from when I started tracking this through the present. Futures are gravy on the side to me and I think unfair to include in the overall profit for any schmoe who is looking in and thinking I know shit from shit because by verge of the Bartoli cash, my overall profit including futures would make me look like a stud. That, I am not.Comment -
ATP Bastad Preview
Top Four Seeds: Berdych, Almagro, Monaco, Robredo
I think you can look at any of the top four seeds as potential winners this week with Almagro & Robredo having won titles here before and all four having made the Final at least once.
BERDYCH QUARTER
Berdych is 9-4 in this tournament all-time, but it's his first trip to Bastad in two years. He's made the Finals twice and his clay court form in 2013 has been solid with a couple of Masters Series semifinals, but a disappointing 1st round loss to Monfils at the French Open. His quarter is relatively simple with Troicki as the top threat in the bottom half. de Bakker and Alund are young talents in this quarter, but not at Berdych's level. If he fails to make it to the semis, it's a major disappointment. I'd rate Souza a possible scalp shot on Troicki who isn't always engaged when switching surfaces or coming off of Slams.
ROBREDO QUARTER
Robredo is 28-10 at this event, having played it for more than a decade. He comes in with good form after his French Open run and a decent roll through three rounds at Wimbledon. He's made the quarters of four of the last five dirt tourneys he has played. Some danger could lurk here with Ramos, Berlocq or Zeballos and potentially some difficult qualifiers being placed here. Robredo will need to be good right away with Ramos or a qualifier due up first. If he makes it past that, there looks to be a good path to the quarters where the enigmatic Berlocq could be waiting. Potential upsets in the opening round could include Ramos who while talented has been in a major slump since April. By seeding, Berlocq beating Zeballos would be an upset - but with Zeballos in terrible form as the price says - Berlocq is expected to win at -175.
MONACO QUARTER
Monaco gets back to his preferred surface. This tournament saw him make the Final in 2009, but most of his other trips have been much shorter. Monaco has played well coming out of Wimbledon most years. This quarter looks like it should come down to Monaco and Dimitrov who tops the bracket. Dimitrov did make the semis here last year and will be looking to rebound from an earlier than expected Wimbledon exit.
ALMAGRO QUARTER
Nico has made the Final in two of his last three trips to Bastad. The good news for him is that Ferrer and Soderling are not here. Those two players have ended his tournament four of the last five times he has played Bastad. He will have to contest with an in-form Verdasco though and that will be tough in itself. This looks to be the toughest quarter to me with some floaters like an up 'n comer in Struff & someone like Garcia-Lopez who seems to show up to play spoiler from time-to-time like he did in Bucharest. Still, this looks like a quarter for Almagro or Verdasco if both show up in the mood. It wouldn't be a big upset, but Struff has played well of late and draws Stakhovsky in a good looking first rounder.
Early Upset Alert: Ramos & Troicki
FUTURES
Berdych is the shortest price @ +145. I think it's deserved based on clay form this year and his path in this event. Verdasco @ +800 and Dimitrov @ +850 have their merits for taking a shot at those prices. Almagro to me @ +400 has the tougher draw to get to the Finals over Berdych, so the price is appropriate. This tournament has not strayed far from seeding over the years with a top four seed winning the last eight tries. The past two years, the final pitted #1 and #2.
OG Investment: Berdych +145
The old :Original Greenout: investment is the one I make to start the tournament with the idea being this is the player I think has a solid shot with a good draw and also offers good greenout opps with their opponents likely to be dogs through most of the tournament.
Monitored Investments: Almagro/Verdasco
The :monitored investments: are a player or two that I will not back to start the tournament, but will look at as the draw breaks over the 1st couple of days as a possible addition. These are ones where you will lose some overall price, but might be in line for a realistic shot at a payday as the tournament unfolds. These will mostly be timing and "feeling" of how things are shaping up.
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ATP Newport Futures Report
Not gonna go too deep into breaking down the draw. We did that a little in Beefcake's thread and said to expect the unexpected. In looking at the Futures prices, these intrigue me.
Hewitt +600: Hewitt used last year's Newport tournament to get himself prepped for the Olympics. This year, it's more of an ending to a solid grass court season. If he gives a shit, he's in the lower part of the draw where Isner is a question mark. There are some capable players down here, but Hewitt at the level he has played at most of the grass court season has the chops to make a run.
Querrey +500/Mahut +600: Waiting to see who survives a potential 2nd rounder between these two could pay dividends as either one would be a favorite to make the Final in the top portion of the draw. Also by waiting to see if one of these guys survives that path could mean you get a grasp on motivation as they'd be in the quarterfinals at that point. The prices will obviously be cut maybe 50% by that time, but these are the ones where it pays to monitor and jump in at the right time.
De Schepper +1500: Of the long shots, he intrigues me the most. He showed some game on this surface in the grass court season against the middling type of players he could see through parts of the draw. I would want to see which qualifier he draws first, but if it's not someone who presents a harsh challenge ... De Schepper is in a wide open quarter that is ripe for the taking. With Sijsling possibly still suffering some effects from the flu and the rest of the quarter not overly impressive ... he could be one to sneak through.
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July 8th
ATP Bastad: Erikkson +5.5 [-130]
ATP Newport: Mannarino +130
ATP Newport: Kozlov +463 *0.5 unit
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I think Erikkson can win the match tomorrow!!Comment -
Why do you like Kozlov? Too much + money, or you know the guy? He's 15 and his record seems pretty underwhelming, shorter dude too.Comment -
He might get crushed, but he's a very interesting Juniors player who is going pro now. He really hasn't even grown into his body, but everyone who has seen him play has come away fairly impressed with the variety he has for a teenager. He made the QFs at Wimbledon in the Junior Ranks, losing to Edmund from the UK who had played fairly impressively against some ATP level players in Eastbourne & Queens Club. He was actually ahead in the match until a cramp hobbled him and he couldn't really do anything the rest of the way.
Przysiezny also had an ankle issue of some sorts that forced his withdraw from a tournament last week. Not expecting it to be a major issue, but he's not exactly a grass vet. In a tournament where strange upsets happen, it's worth a small shot for me. Big thing will obviously be nerves for the kid playing his first ATP level match, but I think having just played Wimbledon - even Juniors was big for that too. We'll see, he might get double bageled, he might push him some.Comment -
Who is this kid? Too many Russians playing under US flag these days....Comment -
Actually believe he was born in Macedonia.Comment -
Iran, Iraq; what's the difference..?Comment -
Adding ...
ATP Newport Qualis: Dustov +110Comment -
Kozlov showing some moxy to pull out the 2nd set.Comment -
Looks like that is all he had left. Pretty impressive for a 15 year old regardless.Comment -
Lil homey has won a new phan today regardless of outcome. Down 0-3 in the 3rd, kid has reeled of four straight!Comment -
Looks like nerves got him when he got the lead. Still pretty solid for your first ATP match.Comment -
What's your reasoning for backing Mannarino? Playing the whole 'success from wimbledon translating here' angle? Or is it more based on blake's record here?Comment -
How could you justify a bet on Blake? Mannarino was decent on grass outside of Wimbledon too. Blake outside of whatever happened with de Bakker hasn't shown enough consistency to me.Comment -
Choke City population Dustov. 5-4 2nd set lead could not serve it put. Mini break in the TB, choked. Nothing beats this feeling.Comment -
Blake has certainly come out in the same poor form you mentioned earlier.Comment -
Mannarino blows it late in the 2nd. Would love to actually see a choice close a damn match Today.Comment -
He's up a consolidated break in the third.Comment -
We can exhale a little ... He broke Blake to start the third and held his serve to love for a change. Let's hope Blake is gassed and gets broken again here.Comment -
Mannarino breaks again
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Hoo-rah.Comment -
Any thoughts on Russell / Marchenko tomorrow in Newport? IIRC, the ageless wonder just won a challenger in Ecuador, and this may be a quick turnaround for him, which may explain the questionable -130 price on him. Marchenko is meh, though.Comment -
Just wanted to wish you luck on the tennis plays EP
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Overall Profit: +3.90Comment -
July 9th
ATP Bastad: Reister +170
ATP Newport: Kudla -120
ATP Newport: Amritraj -160
ATP Newport: Karlovic +195 *0.5 unit
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I'm looking hard at Reister.
Better form as of late IMOComment
