Australian Open: I SPY!

[MagicDiceFlow]

Tipsy is done. Even if he was at 100% , hard to win the way Almagro is playing right now. He's pounding Tipsy like a rag doll all over the court.

Now with the heel problem, no way he gets past this match.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Superb call on Makarova earlier today btw.

[Optional]

Tipsarevic already complaining of a foot or heel problem.

Hope he doesn't retire.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wouldn't matter to me, One set is all I needed, but know others need it. Hopefully he toughs it out like Nishikori, but I don't know he looks to be in really bad shape. If he does finish, it's just out of respect for the game. He's probably going to just stand still on Almagro's serves and take the beating. Only help maybe could be in between sets if he can figure out a better way to pad the issue.

[MagicDiceFlow]

The way Almagro is playing and that stout serving, he's gonna give Ferrer a tough 4 or 5 setter next round.

If its 38 or below , I'll pound the OVER on their match.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's over. Mr. T retires, Almagro moves on!

[Optional]

It's over. Mr. T retires, Almagro moves on!

Oh man, that sucks so hard. Took the -2.5 instead of ML

Can't take a trick.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh man that sucks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 7

Almagro -130
Should be a good one with Almagro and Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic seems ot be living on borrowed time with these five setters. Tipsarevic is serving well, but he's leaving the door open a few too many times each match with break opps. Almagro has had a rock solid serve through three rounds. He has only been broken three times this tournament and if he is able to counter with a lot of holds today - I think all the pressure mounts on Tipsarevic. Mr.T has logged a ton of court time and while he's fit as they come, those minutes to add up over the course of the tournament. Almagro also has the added bonus of recent success in the Abu Dhabi exhibition of beating Tipsarevic on a hard surface.

Makarova +270
This was just a gut feeling I went with when the draws came out. Makarova has had some great success in Melbourne the last three years. Kerber had her number last year, but two meetings were on grass. Again, this is more gut than detail - so do what you shall.
Berdych-Anderson Total Sets Over 3.5 [-125]
These two met four times last season on different surfaces. Anderson took Berdych to five in a memorable match at the French Open and he took a set off him at the Paris Masters at the end of the season. They met here last season with Berdych winning in straights, but two of the sets went to tie breaks. I think Anderson is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now and that should afford him a shot to at least notch a set off Berdych again. Berdych has been rolling so far without dropping a set. Serve obviously will be massive for Anderson - he must hold to have a shot to take a set or more.


Djokovic-Wawrinka Under 30 [-115]
Stanny has played some pretty solid tennis, but it's time for a massive step up in class and I think he's going find himself under huge pressure on-serve in this match. Djokovic as has been mentioned frequently, has not been broken yet. Wawrinka has a track record of mentally beating himself almost pre-match when he faces the elite @ Slams.


Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435

Record: 20-13-3 [+10.48]
Open Parlays: 2-1 [+0.68]

Major props to Wawrinka. Did not think he had that type of match in him ever in a Slam against someone like Djokovic. I'll take that loss for the sheer entertainment value. Makarova made the whole day yesterday. Cashed a small profit on Open Parlay #2 and OP #3 is off to a solid start. Ready to grind tonight.

[goblue24]

Record: 20-13-3 [+10.48]
Open Parlays: 2-1 [+0.68]

Major props to Wawrinka. Did not think he had that type of match in him ever in a Slam against someone like Djokovic. I'll take that loss for the sheer entertainment value. Makarova made the whole day yesterday. Cashed a small profit on Open Parlay #2 and OP #3 is off to a solid start. Ready to grind tonight.

Another nice night. Thanks again for your hard work and picks

[EaglesPhan36]

Filling more slots.

Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435
Slot #4: [R4] Murray -2900
Slot #5: [R4] Serena -1900

[Vaughany]

Nobody on Seppi? Apparently Chardy has a knee injury?

[EaglesPhan36]

That's really a tough one to bet from a side. Seppi off two consecutive five setters. Not sure how big the Chardy injury is. I watched part of the doubles match before he got hurt and did not see the injury or what effect it had.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 8

Doubles: Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin -135
Marrero and Verdasco have been teaming up regularly early in the season, but I think the French duo is going to cause them trouble with their power and serving. Both ERV & Benneteau have played plenty of doubles, so experience isn't an issue here.

Kuznetsova +125
Another pre-tourney read that I am sticking too. Kuznetsova's desire to return up in the rankings has shown in the early weeks. She had a little trouble putting away Suarez-Navarro last round, but that could be the kind of match she needs mentally to push forward in this tournament. She fought through it and came up with a W. Wozniacki still looks like the same player to me. Great return. At times, great ground strokes. At most times, weak serve. I think Kuznetsova without a doubt trumps her in the serve and power department, it's a matter of consistency to see who gets to the pay window here. Their meeting early this month in Sydney went the distance and is interesting to look over. It was during some epic heat, so it was good that Sveta didn't wilt. It looks like she took the 2nd set off after falling behind, while the two sets she won showed her winning the big points and making the big conversions on break opps. That confidence from that could come in handy today. If Kuznetsova can start with a good serve, she should have an excellent chance to provide a win.

Parlay [-110]: Tsonga-Gasquet Over 3.5 Sets [-201] + Stephens [-360]
Deciphering a winner between Tsonga & Gasquet isn't something I want to do today. Tsonga overall has more firepower, but Gasquet is I don't think Tsonga has been challenged much and that has resulted in some lazy play. He should amp it up against Gasquet, but I still expect that neither guy is going to sweep through this match in straights. Gasquet will need to be sharper from the get go or face an uphill climb against someone not named Ivan Dodig who won't break down over the course of a match as much. Stephens gets Jovanovski and I think the biggest battle for "The Sizzle" might be her own nerves of making her first Slam QF. She wasn't her sharpest against Robson, but playing her for the 2nd time in just a few weeks was challenging to begin with. She won't have that with Jovanovski who let a lot of break points on the table against Date-Krumm last round. I think Stephens cashes those in and if her ground strokes hold form, she should get that first QF.

Doubles: Soler Espinoza-Suarez Navarro +280 *0.5 unit
Gut play here. This team has already knocked off a couple seeded teams and just seems to have things working out their way some how, some way. Vesnina-Makarova are a superb team, but some of their better work over the last year came on clay rather than hard courts. The way most of these WTA doubles shake out [if you're not named Williams] is that there will be ample break opps and the team who gets more, will win.

[Boxing Champ]

Kuznetsova always wins the first set against tough opponents, but then she also always gets rattled after a bad point not going her way or a bad line call...and she starts to lose her confidence and can never recover and loses the match.(That's my memory of Kuznetsova..) if she could get her head right , she has the skills and experience to beat anyone at any time..
I actually like the Over 22

[Tmuston Beltics]

Kuznetsova always wins the first set against tough opponents, but then she also always gets rattled after a bad point not going her way or a bad line call...and she starts to lose her confidence and can never recover and loses the match.

That's right! 2nd set first game, she was supposed to be leading 15-40 and have two break points, but she did unforced error at the net, and soon after it was 5-1 for Wozniacki.. She about to lose her serve again. I think she will collapse in the third set. Dam. Thought she was going to win after that fine first set.

[yisman]

been waiting and waiting for 5 Dimes to post a reduced line here but they won't fix it:

Mon 1/21		4737 Serena Williams		-2050
3:30AM		4738 Maria Kirilenko		+188

[EaglesPhan36]

Way too many chances blown this set by Sveta. Fukked up being a break up and couldn't convert on any of several break opps in the last service game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Close this shit out.

[EaglesPhan36]

That's my bitch! Makes up for the Frog doubles fail.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Wow nice call on Kuznetsova. Tailed you. Ty!

[zoo youk]

congrats on that hit EP.


do you think Serena takes it in straights?

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ..

Raonic +5.5 [+110]/Raonic 1st Set +325 [0.25 unit]
Not expecting the stunner here, but Federer has had problems with Raonic's serve some in their three meetings. All took place last year on three different surfaces. In all three, Raonic took a set off Federer - 1he 1st. So it seems perhaps that Federer needs a set to accurately get a read on the thunder from Raonic's serve. Considering he hasn't seen anything close to the speed and pop of Raonic's serve yet, that may hold true again today. The probability of at least one tie break seems good as Raonic has played a TB in each of his 1st three matches. He has actually been broken twice, but last round vs. Kohlschreiber sported an invincible serve. I think the best course for this to have a shot is either for Raonic to again take that first set or at the least get one TB where even if he loses in straights ... it's likely to be very, very tight.

[EaglesPhan36]

congrats on that hit EP.


do you think Serena takes it in straights?

Unless Serena just comes out super flat, it seems likely. Kirilenko did not serve well against Wickmayer. There was a time in the 2nd set where she couldn't get the ball in play for several service games in a row and would have been down against a player - like Serena - who can consolidate breaks.

[zoo youk]

Unless Serena just comes out super flat, it seems likely. Kirilenko did not serve well against Wickmayer. There was a time in the 2nd set where she couldn't get the ball in play for several service games in a row and would have been down against a player - like Serena - who can consolidate breaks.

as always, thank you for the time and response. good luck with all your plays.

[southpaw74]

Any thoughts on if tsonga wins? I know you have over 3.5 sets.

[Optional]

been waiting and waiting for 5 Dimes to post a reduced line here but they won't fix it:

Mon 1/21		4737 Serena Williams		-2050
3:30AM		4738 Maria Kirilenko		+188

So much for hoping for +1880


I contacted them yesterday to let them know they had reversed the totals lines on the Fed/Wawrinka match. They talk to you like some sort of scumbag street gang who's territory you have invaded even when you contact them to help them.

God forbid they would even say thankyou.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think that one is tough to call. I picked Gasquet before the tournament and Tsonga hasn't been tested nor had to play anywhere close to an A level match to win to this point ... but the last match for Gasquet was a little concerning. He was flat & fortunate the 2nd set fall back to him. I think sometimes he falls too in love with watching his backhand and hits it too many times in a row without purpose instead of using it to move his opponent around. I'd like to think Gasquet raises his effort against a countryman and vice versa. The tough thing for Gasquet mau be trying to finish if he's in position to win since he's only been to one Slam QF whereas Tsonga has more experience in the latter stages. All in all though, I think picking a side is 50-50ish here if Gasquet is on his game in constructing points and moving Tsonga around.

[goblue24]

Let's close this set out Gasquet!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice and easy for the Over 3.5 sets so long as they finish off the match with no shenanigans. Gasquet started working over Tsonga's backhand in that last set. If he keeps that up, he's got a definite shot to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sloane Stephens played like dog shit in the 2nd. Jovanovski might be more annoying than Sharapova and Azarenka combined with the grunting.

[shimeon40]

Eagles what are you doing still awake?...while i got you..your expertise and from what you've seen so far..mens and womans finals winner predictions??

[shari91]

I'm on Raonic +5.5 too. He looked really good when I saw him the other day. He was fired up and was hitting really cleanly a lot of the time. Although I admit I could be a bit biased

Good luck EP and everyone!!

[Cross]

Sloane Stephens played like dog shit in the 2nd. Jovanovski might be more annoying than Sharapova and Azarenka combined with the grunting.

Ya, this B sucks to watch without the mute button.

[shimeon40]

absolute ridiculous this grunting Bullshit...absolutely laughable.