Australian Open: I SPY!

[shimeon40]

Sharapova is a fukkin disgrace at grunting

[BB_Mariners]

This is the first time I am watching Stephens and got to say that she plays very defensive tennis, no offense at all.

[goblue24]

Cash that shit! Another nice call by EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is the first time I am watching Stephens and got to say that she plays very defensive tennis, no offense at all.

I think the announcers had a good point in that match. After the 1st set, she played more waiting for Jovanovski to make an error rather than actually constructing points and going for shots. When Jovanovski stopped making as many errors, Stephens did not adjust her mentality. Give Jovanoski credit too - at least in the 2nd set, she was making some big shots and bashing the F outta the ball.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mental Midget Raonic. +5.5 is dead. Pretty much broke down after losing the tie break and is just flat as fukk now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 8

Doubles: Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin -135
Marrero and Verdasco have been teaming up regularly early in the season, but I think the French duo is going to cause them trouble with their power and serving. Both ERV & Benneteau have played plenty of doubles, so experience isn't an issue here.

Kuznetsova +125
Another pre-tourney read that I am sticking too. Kuznetsova's desire to return up in the rankings has shown in the early weeks. She had a little trouble putting away Suarez-Navarro last round, but that could be the kind of match she needs mentally to push forward in this tournament. She fought through it and came up with a W. Wozniacki still looks like the same player to me. Great return. At times, great ground strokes. At most times, weak serve. I think Kuznetsova without a doubt trumps her in the serve and power department, it's a matter of consistency to see who gets to the pay window here. Their meeting early this month in Sydney went the distance and is interesting to look over. It was during some epic heat, so it was good that Sveta didn't wilt. It looks like she took the 2nd set off after falling behind, while the two sets she won showed her winning the big points and making the big conversions on break opps. That confidence from that could come in handy today. If Kuznetsova can start with a good serve, she should have an excellent chance to provide a win.

Parlay [-110]: Tsonga-Gasquet Over 3.5 Sets [-201] + Stephens [-360]
Deciphering a winner between Tsonga & Gasquet isn't something I want to do today. Tsonga overall has more firepower, but Gasquet is I don't think Tsonga has been challenged much and that has resulted in some lazy play. He should amp it up against Gasquet, but I still expect that neither guy is going to sweep through this match in straights. Gasquet will need to be sharper from the get go or face an uphill climb against someone not named Ivan Dodig who won't break down over the course of a match as much. Stephens gets Jovanovski and I think the biggest battle for "The Sizzle" might be her own nerves of making her first Slam QF. She wasn't her sharpest against Robson, but playing her for the 2nd time in just a few weeks was challenging to begin with. She won't have that with Jovanovski who let a lot of break points on the table against Date-Krumm last round. I think Stephens cashes those in and if her ground strokes hold form, she should get that first QF.


Doubles: Soler Espinoza-Suarez Navarro +280 *0.5 unit
Gut play here. This team has already knocked off a couple seeded teams and just seems to have things working out their way some how, some way. Vesnina-Makarova are a superb team, but some of their better work over the last year came on clay rather than hard courts. The way most of these WTA doubles shake out [if you're not named Williams] is that there will be ample break opps and the team who gets more, will win.


Raonic +5.5 [+110]/Raonic 1st Set +325 [0.25 unit]
Not expecting the stunner here, but Federer has had problems with Raonic's serve some in their three meetings. All took place last year on three different surfaces. In all three, Raonic took a set off Federer - 1he 1st. So it seems perhaps that Federer needs a set to accurately get a read on the thunder from Raonic's serve. Considering he hasn't seen anything close to the speed and pop of Raonic's serve yet, that may hold true again today. The probability of at least one tie break seems good as Raonic has played a TB in each of his 1st three matches. He has actually been broken twice, but last round vs. Kohlschreiber sported an invincible serve. I think the best course for this to have a shot is either for Raonic to again take that first set or at the least get one TB where even if he loses in straights ... it's likely to be very, very tight.

Mixed bag today. Really pissed the WTA doubles flamed out after they rolled in the 1st set. Both doubles were very close in 3, but losses are losses. Small loss of -0.75 today overall. Open Parlay #3 progresses well though. One more slot to the money position.

Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435
Slot #4: [R4] Murray -2900
Slot #5: [R4] Serena -1900

Record: 22-17-3 [+9.73]
Open Parlays: 2-1 [+0.68]

[zoo youk]

Unless Serena just comes out super flat, it seems likely. Kirilenko did not serve well against Wickmayer. There was a time in the 2nd set where she couldn't get the ball in play for several service games in a row and would have been down against a player - like Serena - who can consolidate breaks.

spot on. man handled that h0. def had trouble getting balls in play. Serena really played like she had a hatred for Kirilenko. maybe from doubles?

[zoo youk]

can't watch for the Stephens - Serena match. surely Serena should handle her but will still be pretty cool to see the kind the future of womens tennis against the all time great.

[Galactic]

Curious as to what you're playing today mate?

[EaglesPhan36]

Futures

#1: David Ferrer to Win His Quarter [-125]
This just seems like a fantastic price and reminds me a lot of the prices you could find on Andy Murray to win his quarter when he was slotted into the 4th seed for Slams. This though is even lower than those and I absolutely love his draw. Ferrer has Tipsarevic as the top seed in his quarter. He would be his QF opponent if all holds. Looking at Ferrer's path, he opens with Rochus. Rochus is a nice little player, but Ferrer should wear him down and I would be surprised if it wasn't in straight sets. The 2nd round would feature either Karlovic or Smyczek. Karlovic's serve would obviously be a tall task, but with the best of five format - I trust in Ferrer to work Karlovic over, even if it takes an extra set or two. Smyczek would be a mirror image of Ferrer, small in stature and quick, but about a C- version of Ferrer. The 3rd round likely yield the 1st test for Ferrer. I have Baghdatis projected in this slot and upsets by either Millman, Ito or Ramos to that pick would be even more of a boost to Ferrer's chances of advancing to the 4th round. Baggy beat Ferrer in 5 at the 2010 Aussie Open, rallying from two sets down. If Ferrer needed motivation, that would probably be it. Expect a tight match, but still think Ferrer's superior fitness and consistency should win out. The 4th round looks probable to see Nishikori. Depending on Nishikori's work to this point, this could potentially be a first look at a hedge opportunity. Nishikori looked like his knee wasn't an issue as he came back to play a match @ Kooyong this week. We'll see how he holds up through the week. The other possibility in this round might be Youzhny if Nishikori falters. That's a match-up that I think is even more in favor of Ferrer. To the QFs. Tipsarevic is the seed expected to be there, but a wrist issue and tough draw has me looking elsewhere. A repeat of their US Open clash would be great, but I'm looking for Almagro, Dimitrov or perhaps a surprise in this section to be there. My projection is Almagro. 12-0 head-2-head for Ferrer.

Could not have asked for a better set-up as this quarter worked out with my projections for once. So even though I think Ferrer wins, smart play is the hedge.The amount risked here sets up 0.65 of profit if Ferrer wins and right around 0.40 if Almagro pulls off the shocker.

Almagro +470 *0.35 units

[EaglesPhan36]

Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435
Slot #4: [R4] Murray -2900
Slot #5: [R4] Serena -1900
Slot #6: [QF] Doubles - Granollers/Lopez -280

Adding Slot 6.

[zoo youk]

don't trust Sharapova to add in that parlay? bish hasn't dropped a set yet...

[zoo youk]

man i think Li Na +1.5 -160 is an absolute steal or am I way off base here?

edit...nevermind I see in the contest you like Radwanska to go to the finals...so..

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 9

Parlay [-140]: Ferrer-Almagro Under 4.5 Sets [-442] + Doubles: Marrero-Verdasco [-250]
The Ferrer-Almagro match could be a good one if Almagro is able to keep up his serve. Ferrer though has a habit of wearing opponents down over the course of the match which inevitably leads to fatigued legs and less effective serving. I don't doubt that Almagro can take a set here if his serve is hot early, but I think this one ends in three or four. Marrero-Verdasco have shown some solid play again this week. Through the first couple weeks this season, they seem to have formed a good partnership. The Dutch duo of Haase-Sjisling have had a fairly simple route to this point with the 2nd seeds knocked out early in that draw. Seeing Marrero-Verdasco play several times now, I think their chemistry will carry them through.

[EaglesPhan36]

I will say there are a lot of tough lines today for these matches if you're not just looking at money lines. Only other one I might play is something on Djokovic-Berdych ... but still formulating my opinion on that.

[Boxing Champ]

E.P. If you are playing -440 on the Under 4.5..why not just take Ferrer at -550??
on a $100 play the difference is $6

[EaglesPhan36]

I've already got a play for Ferrer to win this quarter, don't want to mess up that and the hedge I have on Almagro with another play on a side in the match. I also think that if the unthinkable happens and Almagro wins, it will be under 5 as well. Would be shocked if Almagro outlasted Ferrer in a five set match on this surface.

[zoo youk]

see what happens when you do videos EP. you get wankers like me asking you about EVERY single match possible

[zoo youk]

son of a bitch....I didn't even say that cause of the comment I made about the Li Na match..I honestly made it just joking around..just woke up to see your comments cause I added Sharapova to a parlay instead, than went to flashscore and see Na took it in straights. I knew that damn +1.5 was a steal.

[terpkeg]

Anyone have live betting on Bookmaker? Suprised they had it for Radwanska/Na and not for the men.

[EaglesPhan36]

Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435
Slot #4: [R4] Murray -2900
Slot #5: [R4] Serena -1900
Slot #6: [QF] Doubles - Granollers/Lopez -280

Adding Slot 6.

Slot #7: [QF] Doubles - Williams -800

Using that as the closer which would make the payout +186. Have to put it in play with the Granollers-Lopez match still pending, but looking good. I don't think a hedge is really going to be needed because they have all the weapons to blast Vinci-Errani off the court like they did in the Olympics, but smart is smart. Hedge for 0.36 units @ +550 on Errani-Vinci. So +1.50 units if the Williams Sisters win and +0.82 if the upset occurs. If the Spaniards manage to blow this match then I guess I lose 1.36 altogether, but gotta be done since 5D has the Williams start time listed too early @ 10pm ET and removes all doubles matches at the times they list.

[zoo youk]

got a great price on that EP. Heritage has them -1000

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright the Spaniards close, so it's guaranteed money time from the Open Parlay. Need Ferrer to start eating into Almagro's serve or I may be forced to root for Almagro! I like both these dudes a ton.

[EaglesPhan36]

Almagro is playing great. Looks like I will have to root for him to get it done. Break for him in the 2nd and Ferrer has yet to even earn a break opp off his serve. Needs to get it now if he's going to get it at all.

[matt1216]

Mental Midget Raonic. +5.5 is dead. Pretty much broke down after losing the tie break and is just flat as fukk now.

I had this too. Apparently Raonic had major pain in his Foot about an hour befor the match started. He decided to go out an try his best! what a joke. Would have been nice to know

Almagro was +420 befor match started.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got him at +470 earlier to hedge my Ferrer Future to win this quarter. That was the best price I saw on him all day. I win either way, but I need someone to win in four sets for my parlay.

[Sharp Snake]

Lucky you took the under 4.5 and not Ferrer but I doubt you thought you'd have to cheer on Almagro.

[EaglesPhan36]

I knew it was possible, highly unlikely but possible. Upsets are always possible. Again needed the A+ level and for the better overall player to not be at his best. He's certainly at an A+ level and when guys are not getting broken down like the other guy is accustomed to, frustration really helps out the cause of the underdog because the fave really gets hot under the collar. Now if he wins in straights, that I don't think you would have seen anyone in their right mind call.

[EaglesPhan36]

Proof again kids that hedging is smart business for us.

[zoo youk]

dude is playing lights out. EP won't answer me, worried about the curse of zoo.

[face]

nvrmind

[Boxing Champ]

Almagro choked... Deleted my message..

[zoo youk]

unrealllllll u assholeeeeeee. come all the way back to 40-40 to blow it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Almagro is fukked as is my bet if Ferrer wins this set. You can feel that.

[zoo youk]

Almagro is fukked as is my bet if Ferrer wins this set. You can feel that.

if he holds serve here i still think he has a good chance in the tie break. i still like the way he is playing.