I spy one of my favorite times of the year. For most this marks the real start to the tennis season when everyone starts taking note of effort levels and such. Consolidating all my picks for the tournament into one thread for ease of viewing, laughing, WTF-ing and are you drunk commentating.
One piece of advice that I always give out especially around Slams ... don't over due it the 1st couple days. This is a marathon, two week event. Pick the matches you like and stick to them, don't try to pick matches just for action because there are matches going on all night/day. I've learned that the hard way myself. I don't think its problematic if you allow yourself to make an extra pick or two if you have a solid winning day, but trust in your picks and don't chase on these first few days. Futures plays listed first. Will have Day-to-Day picks coming after that.
Aussie Aussie Aussie. Oi Oi Oi.
Futures
#1: David Ferrer to Win His Quarter [-125]
This just seems like a fantastic price and reminds me a lot of the prices you could find on Andy Murray to win his quarter when he was slotted into the 4th seed for Slams. This though is even lower than those and I absolutely love his draw. Ferrer has Tipsarevic as the top seed in his quarter. He would be his QF opponent if all holds. Looking at Ferrer's path, he opens with Rochus. Rochus is a nice little player, but Ferrer should wear him down and I would be surprised if it wasn't in straight sets. The 2nd round would feature either Karlovic or Smyczek. Karlovic's serve would obviously be a tall task, but with the best of five format - I trust in Ferrer to work Karlovic over, even if it takes an extra set or two. Smyczek would be a mirror image of Ferrer, small in stature and quick, but about a C- version of Ferrer. The 3rd round likely yield the 1st test for Ferrer. I have Baghdatis projected in this slot and upsets by either Millman, Ito or Ramos to that pick would be even more of a boost to Ferrer's chances of advancing to the 4th round. Baggy beat Ferrer in 5 at the 2010 Aussie Open, rallying from two sets down. If Ferrer needed motivation, that would probably be it. Expect a tight match, but still think Ferrer's superior fitness and consistency should win out. The 4th round looks probable to see Nishikori. Depending on Nishikori's work to this point, this could potentially be a first look at a hedge opportunity. Nishikori looked like his knee wasn't an issue as he came back to play a match @ Kooyong this week. We'll see how he holds up through the week. The other possibility in this round might be Youzhny if Nishikori falters. That's a match-up that I think is even more in favor of Ferrer. To the QFs. Tipsarevic is the seed expected to be there, but a wrist issue and tough draw has me looking elsewhere. A repeat of their US Open clash would be great, but I'm looking for Almagro, Dimitrov or perhaps a surprise in this section to be there. My projection is Almagro. 12-0 head-2-head for Ferrer.
#2: Serena to Win Australian Open [-118]
Another good price. Serena's draw looks fairly simplistic to the semifinals if she is playing anything close to the level we have seen early. She's drawn a week seed opposite her right now with Kvitova as the top seed in the bottom half of her draw. If she was in-form, I'd look at that as a potential toughie, but Kvitova has continued her dropoff from last year with some pathetic tennis early. I don't think she'll be in the quarters against Serena. I have Sloane Stephens, the Sizzle projected there. Looking in Serena's half, it's hard to see anyone who is going to match her without Serena donating one of her worst matches. Shvedova has the shot making ability, but she has been in poor form to start the year and might not even win her own 1st rounder to meet up later with Serena. Kirilenko as the other seed in this half just does not match-up vs. Serena's power. I actually like Wickmayer to perhaps push through to a 4th round meeting with Serena, but again it's not an opponent I think will deal well with the physical nature of the match. To me, the two things standing in Serena's way of making the final: the weather and Azarenka in the semis. A hot day could change Serena's fortunes, but that's something you monitor and adjust to. Azarenka if seeds hold would be here semifinal match-up. 12-1 head-2-head for Serena and the US Open choke to recall for Azarenka. A lot to overcome. This would be the hedge I would consider depending on price and form. Otherwise, I'd sit tight to the finals if Serena holds up.
#3: Del Potro to Win His Quarter [+500]
This is my dark horse play. My long shot, but I think it's a pretty solid play to try and make some profit off of. The quarter features Andy Murray on the bottom half and the draw looks tailor made for a Del Potro-Murray showdown in the quarters. Delpo's toughest match likely will be his 4th rounder with Cilic or maybe Istomin being the likely draw from what I see in this quarter. His first two rounds should be fairly straight forward. Mannarino is in good form, but he has never beaten a Top 10 player in five tries. 2nd round of Bedene or Becker doesn't look like too tough of a prospect, although I would not be surprised to see either one of them win a set off Delpo. 3rd round could be interesting against a Chardy, Zemlja or Granollers. Still, I see Del Potro too consistent. For me, it leaves Murray in the quarters and a hedge to make some profit. I actually think Del Potro has the possibility of pulling off the win even though Murray owns a big advantage in the head-2-head. 5-1, but they have not met since 2009. Both are different players now, so it would be an intriguing match-up that I think we have a goof shot to see.
One piece of advice that I always give out especially around Slams ... don't over due it the 1st couple days. This is a marathon, two week event. Pick the matches you like and stick to them, don't try to pick matches just for action because there are matches going on all night/day. I've learned that the hard way myself. I don't think its problematic if you allow yourself to make an extra pick or two if you have a solid winning day, but trust in your picks and don't chase on these first few days. Futures plays listed first. Will have Day-to-Day picks coming after that.
Aussie Aussie Aussie. Oi Oi Oi.
Futures
#1: David Ferrer to Win His Quarter [-125]
This just seems like a fantastic price and reminds me a lot of the prices you could find on Andy Murray to win his quarter when he was slotted into the 4th seed for Slams. This though is even lower than those and I absolutely love his draw. Ferrer has Tipsarevic as the top seed in his quarter. He would be his QF opponent if all holds. Looking at Ferrer's path, he opens with Rochus. Rochus is a nice little player, but Ferrer should wear him down and I would be surprised if it wasn't in straight sets. The 2nd round would feature either Karlovic or Smyczek. Karlovic's serve would obviously be a tall task, but with the best of five format - I trust in Ferrer to work Karlovic over, even if it takes an extra set or two. Smyczek would be a mirror image of Ferrer, small in stature and quick, but about a C- version of Ferrer. The 3rd round likely yield the 1st test for Ferrer. I have Baghdatis projected in this slot and upsets by either Millman, Ito or Ramos to that pick would be even more of a boost to Ferrer's chances of advancing to the 4th round. Baggy beat Ferrer in 5 at the 2010 Aussie Open, rallying from two sets down. If Ferrer needed motivation, that would probably be it. Expect a tight match, but still think Ferrer's superior fitness and consistency should win out. The 4th round looks probable to see Nishikori. Depending on Nishikori's work to this point, this could potentially be a first look at a hedge opportunity. Nishikori looked like his knee wasn't an issue as he came back to play a match @ Kooyong this week. We'll see how he holds up through the week. The other possibility in this round might be Youzhny if Nishikori falters. That's a match-up that I think is even more in favor of Ferrer. To the QFs. Tipsarevic is the seed expected to be there, but a wrist issue and tough draw has me looking elsewhere. A repeat of their US Open clash would be great, but I'm looking for Almagro, Dimitrov or perhaps a surprise in this section to be there. My projection is Almagro. 12-0 head-2-head for Ferrer.
#2: Serena to Win Australian Open [-118]
Another good price. Serena's draw looks fairly simplistic to the semifinals if she is playing anything close to the level we have seen early. She's drawn a week seed opposite her right now with Kvitova as the top seed in the bottom half of her draw. If she was in-form, I'd look at that as a potential toughie, but Kvitova has continued her dropoff from last year with some pathetic tennis early. I don't think she'll be in the quarters against Serena. I have Sloane Stephens, the Sizzle projected there. Looking in Serena's half, it's hard to see anyone who is going to match her without Serena donating one of her worst matches. Shvedova has the shot making ability, but she has been in poor form to start the year and might not even win her own 1st rounder to meet up later with Serena. Kirilenko as the other seed in this half just does not match-up vs. Serena's power. I actually like Wickmayer to perhaps push through to a 4th round meeting with Serena, but again it's not an opponent I think will deal well with the physical nature of the match. To me, the two things standing in Serena's way of making the final: the weather and Azarenka in the semis. A hot day could change Serena's fortunes, but that's something you monitor and adjust to. Azarenka if seeds hold would be here semifinal match-up. 12-1 head-2-head for Serena and the US Open choke to recall for Azarenka. A lot to overcome. This would be the hedge I would consider depending on price and form. Otherwise, I'd sit tight to the finals if Serena holds up.
#3: Del Potro to Win His Quarter [+500]
This is my dark horse play. My long shot, but I think it's a pretty solid play to try and make some profit off of. The quarter features Andy Murray on the bottom half and the draw looks tailor made for a Del Potro-Murray showdown in the quarters. Delpo's toughest match likely will be his 4th rounder with Cilic or maybe Istomin being the likely draw from what I see in this quarter. His first two rounds should be fairly straight forward. Mannarino is in good form, but he has never beaten a Top 10 player in five tries. 2nd round of Bedene or Becker doesn't look like too tough of a prospect, although I would not be surprised to see either one of them win a set off Delpo. 3rd round could be interesting against a Chardy, Zemlja or Granollers. Still, I see Del Potro too consistent. For me, it leaves Murray in the quarters and a hedge to make some profit. I actually think Del Potro has the possibility of pulling off the win even though Murray owns a big advantage in the head-2-head. 5-1, but they have not met since 2009. Both are different players now, so it would be an intriguing match-up that I think we have a goof shot to see.
