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Zheng wins!Comment -
Just got back from the tennis and it felt way warmer than what the temperature said. I can totally see them stopping matches tomorrow due to the heat as it's going to be at least a good 15 degrees hotter + court temp. So maybe keep that in mind if you don't want cash tied up.
Great job on hitting the big dog EP!
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Are there specific guidelines or rules regarding stoppages due to heat?Just got back from the tennis and it felt way warmer than what the temperature said. I can totally see them stopping matches tomorrow due to the heat as it's going to be at least a good 15 degrees hotter + court temp. So maybe keep that in mind if you don't want cash tied up.
Great job on hitting the big dog EP!Comment -
There is but most of it is up to the Ref. They pick a set temperature beforehand and if the wet bulb hits that then they stop the match. Problem is we don't know what they pick and the wet globe doesn't just measure what the weather bureau says... it factors in things like humidity and court heat. It was quite hot today there though and the max temp was apparently 25 degrees here in Melb. Tomorrow it's forecast for 40 so it's going to be a scorcher.
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I'm heading in tomorrow shari, probably the worst day to get free tickets, when it is going to be that hot!!
Definitely felt warmer today than the temp said even out my way east of the city.Comment -
Oh man I feel for you. Hopefully your tickets aren't in the unshaded parts. At least you should be able to enjoy the early matches though before it gets unbearable. Problem is the courts just trap heat inside so even today people were complaining. I'm supposed to be going back Saturday so I'm just hoping the rain clears in the morning as bom says it will.Comment -
Will be tough to get shade, they were only ground passes. I think we'll probably stay out of the sun and watch a few on the screens when the hottest part of the day comes around!
Saturday should be okay from the forecasts I've seen, although sometimes I wonder how the main tv stations come up with their own forecasts with slight differences.Comment -
Is Margaret Court Arena shaded? A GP will get you in there.
Mrs Bear is heading to the AO on Saturday as well. She has tickets to Hisense.Comment -
Well Malisse was a total turd, but overall a fantastic day with the Savinykh hit and we're down to the final slot on the 1st Open Parlay, so it's profit taking time!
Great effort from Lacko, but Mr.T's got this one in the bag.Comment -
Nice work today EP.Comment -
Thank you sir. Well maybe Tipsarevic doesn't quite have this. Even though I know they're making up maybe like 35-40% of the matches, seems like 5 setters are everywhere.Comment -
Come on tippy, dont fukk me in the contest..Comment -
Record: 11-6-1 [+7.03]Opening up a 2nd Open Parlay. Will likely have another play or two later on.
Open Parlay #2 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R2] Anderson -500
Slot #2: [R2] Li -1600
Slot #3: [R1] Doubles: Mattek-Sands/Mirza -620
Day 3
Savinykh +6.5 [-130]/ +600
To win one unit on the handicap. Half a unit on the money line. The Russian draws Cibulkova who definitely looked to be in trouble in the 1st set of her opener against Barty before class came through in what turned into an easy win in 3. She's had a mostly positive run to open 2012, but has been destroyed twice - once by Sloane Stephens and in the Sydney Final against Radwanska. She can be really good on her best day on this surface, but she's suffered a few odd losses in Melbourne over the years and has only made the 3rd round once in the last three years. Savinykh is one I followed through qualis and she has shown a fairly consistent game. This is one I marked for a potential upset because of the inconsistency we've seen from Cibulkova. Savinykh will have to get her serve in routinely and punish any break opportunities she is afforded, but I think she can definitely stay within this number if she plays smart.
Melzer -120
Seen quite a few on Bautista-Agut and he certainly has started the season hot with a scalp of Berdych in Chennai and he took a set off Tipsarevic in the final. Still, he's a relative newbie on the Grand Slam scene - although accomplished on this surface at the Challenger Level with a title on the surface at that level last year. His opener with Fognini showed the roller coaster a young player faces in these best of fives - cruising to a lead, then letting Fognini back in it and then ultimately closing it out easy in the 5th. Melzer was able to work on his game against an obviously rusty Kukushkin in an easy straight sets win. The serve was much more effective and that will be a big thing today coupled with the lefty game that can trouble many a player. Bautista-Agut hasn't played against a lefty in quite a bit. Melzer should look to exploit that advantage early and we'll see how the youngster adjusts.
Youzhny -5 [-118]
You saw the complete Youzhinator against Ebden in the 1st round. He still pushed this number in that five setter. It was really mostly on his racket in that match after the 1st set, but Youzhny floated in and out of the match with some maddening inconsistency at times. Still, he got breaks when he needed them and put pressure on Ebden's serve consistently, converting 6/12 break points. Donskoy is a talent for sure, but still very green against the big boys at this level. Looking at some of his early season results in qualis, he was completely outplayed by much lesser foes than Youzhny. I'm expecting Youzhny to show some better focus today and if his serve is steadier, I think he can cover this.
Tipsarevic-Lacko Over 33 [-113]
Tipsarevic got through the opener, grinding against Hewitt and put forth a solid display. He wasn't perfect, so Lacko will have some places to try and exploit Mr.T. I don't think the wrist is a major issue, but it's definitely going to be a minor hassle at times for him. He showed that some in Chennai, dropping sets to Bedene and Bautista-Agut. Lacko has been pretty stout to open the season, only losing to Ferrer and Gasquet. Those losses were heavy ones in straights, but I think he matches up better against a shot maker like Tipsarevic - who will grind with you, but much prefers to levy out the big shots to engaging in more rallies like you'd see from Ferrer & Gasquet. These two met once way back in 2008 and played a thrilling five set match at the Davis Cup when neither were household names. Hell, Lacko still isn't. I do however think Lacko has improved his game on this surface and if he serves well, he should stick tight with Tipsarevic. As we saw with the Hewitt match, this number can be achieved in three sets - but I think perhaps we get four sets at least here and an easier shot to bank this one.
Malisse +130
Should be a superb match with Verdasco. Consistency should be the winning factor in this one. Verdasco rode the roller coaster against Goffin, showing some moxy in finishing it out in five. Still, he flashed the same lackadaisical play that has plagued him this season far too much. Malisse has been the much more consistent performer so far this season and I think his serve could be a difference maker today. He's already gotten in some lefty practice by beating Klizan earlier this season. If Malisse's serve stays stout, expecting him to survive and advance.
Open Parlays: 0-1 [-1.00]
Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Slot 5: [R1] Kohlschreiber -820
Slot 6: [R1] Doubles: Bryans -750
In position now to profit off this first Open Parlay with the first six slots complete. Lots of different ways to finish, so looking forward to figuring this out later to try and get a nice hit.Comment -
You made me double check to see if Verdasco really won. A friend and I were arguing about this match earlier today and I was worried I was going to have to send an "oops I was wrong" text
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Oh yeah, wrong emoticon. Fixed. Really thought if an egg was laid, it's be Turdasco. Oh well.Comment -
Filling the last slot of the open parlay.
Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Slot 5: [R1] Kohlschreiber -820
Slot 6: [R1] Doubles: Bryans -750
Slot 7: [R1] Doubles: Marrero-Verdasco -420
The last selection makes the value of this parlay [+166]. Their opponents, Bautista-Agut/F.Lopez are +300. I'm going .33 units on them for the hedge. That breaks me about even off this if the dogs spring the upset and keeps the parlay a healthy +133 if Marrero-Verdasco win.Comment -
Will add more for later, but this is first-up.
Day 4
Seppi-Istomin Under 40.5 [-120]
No big breakdown here. My feeling simply is that there will be some service breaks in this one. Istomin is usually a roller coaster of activity from set to set. Seppi has been solid to start the year, so I think he'll put some pressure on Istomin's serve - while Istomin could do the same against Seppi if his own serve is holding up.
Duckworth-Kavcic Over 39 [-110]
Duckworth will have to show his bounce back ability after the five set win over Mitchell, but he certainly looked strong enough closing the match out. For Duckworth, the consistency was not there all match - but he controlled things more than not against Mitchell. He showed a solid serve which continues from the pre-AO prep. Kavic blew away Bellucci in straights. Most people would have. Kavcic is really not a bad player. He's shown good ability on this surface and was playing solid tennis most of 2012 on his more preferred surface of clay before a back problem slowed him. I think the Aussie fans will help push Duckworth if he lacks energy as this will be on a smaller court, so I think this will be competitive.
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Added one more. Updated. More later.Comment -
E.P. ..Is there a big favorite player that is notorious for playing a lot worse in the heat??
Maybe we can take advantage of today's hot weather and get a big underdog win.Comment -
It's a seven team parlay. You choose when you start how many slots there are, so you have to make whatever number of selections you pick. It's the last slot, so I don't care if I am playing Novak Djokovic at -50000 ... I am going to hedge some to guarantee either breaking even or a profit win or lose. That is the whole point of the project and parlays in general if you're playing a larger amount of selections - at least for me. I'm not playing these to try and "hit a home run" with a big score. It's still a grind for a profit.
I'm trying not to overplay the heat angle today. I'm going to look at a player's chances of winning in any setting first and foremost. Still working on some stuff.Comment -
EP, do you like Robson's chances to pull the upset tonight?Comment -
Not playing a side in that one. Two inconsistent players. This under is busted unless one of these guys starts absolutely rolling next set.Comment -
Sloane Stephens under looks real good to me. These WTA matches are a goldmine, been making a killing on Aza, Pova, Keys, Serena(left her today), StephensComment -
Ram +8 [-120]
Not holding any misconception that Ram will be a major threat to Cilic overall in this match, but he has a serve that can keep him deep into sets when it is working effectively. Given the weather, there could also be less chance that either wants to engage in longer rallies - so service holds could come quick. Cilic looked good in his opener, but there were break opps on his serve -11, he saved all 11. He beat Matosevic by exactly eight games in three sets. I think Ram has an opportunity to do the same.Comment -
Del Potro-Becker Under 29 [-120]
Delpo was dominant in his opener against Mannarino who had been very hot, albeit on the Challenger Level. Becker isn't who normally holds up against the elite without maintaining a wicked serve throughout the match. I don't know that he'll be anywhere near consistent enough to stick with Del Potro. I think if Del Potro starts quick and gets into his serve early, the ball will roll in his favor and he'll finish Becker in straights.Comment -
posting totals epComment -
She's not a big favorite in that match and it's the last one at Laver. Heat won't be as big a deal. Not sure if the roof is closed right now or not, have not been able to watch.Comment -
Roof open. Tomic is playing in the sun.Comment -
Thanks for the update. Been busy tonight, so only scoreboard watching. Tomic could lose this then. He had issues in Sydney with the heat, but fought through them. Brands continuing to serve in beast mode will make it tough.Comment
