In EP we trust. Thanks for Verdasco winner.
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I spy 'Nando in the winner's circle! Whew. Always feels good to get your first W at a Slam. Starting in a hole makes you crazy, so hopefully things go well for the rest of the evening. Already admitted to myself that sleep this week was gonna be fukked, so let's go!Comment -
Great way to close!
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EP can I get your thoughts on Barthel. Is she fairly safe to back?Comment -
She's looked pretty good this year. Only thing that bothers me is a couple Slams flameouts for her in the 1st round last year, but can't argue with her form for the most part.Comment -
What ya think about Baghdatis vs Ramos? Looks like it might come down to Bags to finish a parlay. I don't really trust him either.Comment -
Damn I got a bunch of chokers today. Bogo blows a break when I need him to win a damn set. Baghdatis I think is motivated this year. Always plays strong here. Think he has the advantage over Ramos.Comment -
Bogo chokes again. Had the set to serve out and cash the over and the butt munch showed his Russianess.Comment -
Phau like -240, only manages to win 8 games.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Bogo takes the TB to zip!
That should put a pin in Baker's enthusiasm for a game or two..Comment -
Finally the fukker took advantage. My girl Savinykh looking decent. And the Youzhinator is back in it!Comment -
Great call on that Over..EP
How strong do you feel about Chan play??
Should we play an avg size bet??
Are you playing Hewitt vs Tipsi??
Thanks for everything you do EP, as usual you are a Tennis Beast..
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I play everything the same size. Just makes sense to me to keep the wager size the same from bet to bet. Haven't been too many upsets yet so who knows. I just think Hantuchova looked like crap last match. Skipping Hewitt- Tipsarevic. Tips wrist is the key. Since he took off, he will probably be okay. Hewitt has been steady. Problem is everyone is on Hewitt and that seems to be burial status time and time again. I like Hewitt, but decided to skip it because of the jinx factor.Comment -
Unfortunately, I'm probably going to be awake to watch the Tipsy/Hewitt match so I might throw a play on it. So many people are calling for this upset, Hewitt has been openly talking about beating Tipsarevic...I'm just not buying it. Hewitt is tough as nails, but if Tipsarevic is anywhere near full strength I think he wins in 4. Deciding now on the play.Comment -
do you like a lacko/jerzy parlay?Comment -
I need to see more of Janowicz. Tough to gauge and Bolelli can be tough.Comment -
yeah decided to flag it....i got buried on radwanska under and joker under to continue the worst losing streak of my life, sad thing is both could have easily covered....radwanska had a chance to double break(was up 40-0) then lost 6 straight points...then got broken lol. then she won the 2nd set 6-0.
Joker was dominating but at some point took his foot of the throat. oh wellComment -
It looks like Millman vs Ito is gonna be a loooong match...
It doesn't look good for us..Comment -
ep under 171/2 czink?? your thoughtsComment -
Yeah the lack of closing by Ito was a real bummer. Under looked great after two sets and even after three if Ito could have closed. Can't be too mad with today overall. 4-2 and both losses could have been wins with some better luck.
Some superb five setters already and just day one!Comment -
Record: 4-2 [+2.21]*Will be adding more as the night goes, but wanted to get the earliest ones listed.
Day 1
Bemelmans -130
The Belgian made it through qualis into the main draw. He draws Roger-Vasselin who is a tough nut on hard courts. This is Bemelmans first trip to the main draw in Melbourne, but he's been on the rise for the past year. He worked qualis into a main draw 2nd round performance @ Wimbledon and made an indoor Challenger Final late in the season. Both guys have pretty decent serves, so this figures to be a case of who is able to win those big points - saving break points and cashing them in against the other guy. I'll side with Bemelmans who has the court time in Melbourne with qualis with ERV dormant since losing in the 2nd round in Chennai.
Verdasco -135
Certainly a bit of guesswork as both Goffin and Verdasco have not started the season strong, but Goffin to me looks like he's regressed some from his breakout last Summer. Verdasco had some tough opponents to start, so hoping to see some more improvement with something on the line now. He's also caught a case of lefty-itis, losing to Bellucci and Melzer already this season and he's dropped four straight now to lefties. This is also his 1st trip into the main draw in Melbourne, while Verdasco is the tested vet. Verdasco has only lost in the 1st round once in the last eight years. That came last year in a tough draw against Tomic where he blew a 2-0 lead.
Chan +165
Chan slammed through qualis without breaking a sweat. She gets Hantuchova who has a history of struggling in early matches, although she has won the majority of them. Her loss to Morita in Sydney was troubling though as she dominated a set and then was thoroughly outplayed over the final two sets. Chan looks like a decent little player and I think if Hantuchova shows up with the lethargic attitude that infected her game in the two losses she has suffered this year to lesser players, Chan will have a shot to pull off the upset.
Sarinykh -115
Another qualifier that was impressive. Minella had the one run at the US Open last year, but still as with many of the young players is inconsistent. Going with form from a player that I looked at in qualis a few times.
Bogomolov-Baker Over 38 [-118]
This looks like it should shape up to be competitive. Not sold on Baker being able to continue that magic he had last year. Bogomolov is still a mug at heart, but he got through qualis in reasonable shape and seems to have pulled himself out of the full-on nose dive he was in for the better part of last season. Should be a good chance this goes at least four and with neither as a great returner, there should be at least a tight set or two to help.
Millman-Ito Under 38 [-114]
Millman has shown some impressive form to open 2013, beating Robredo and taking sets off Andy Murray & Seppi. He also demolished Ito 6-4, 6-1 in Brisbane. Ito has looked out of sorts with his lone win in qualis in Sydney over the Aussie Teen Luke Saville. He lost to Matthew Barton 7-5, 6-1 in the following match. Think there will be lopsided sets in this one regardless of who comes out on top. Seeing Ito's form and Millman's improved play, I think Millman in straights or four where this should have an opportunity. If Ito wins, I would think it would come because Millman absolutely cracked.
Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Very pleased with the open parlay start to boot. Remember, this is a marathon - keep your head up if Day 1 wasn't your friend. Plenty of time to turn it around.Comment -
Ramos is playing pretty damn well against Baggy. Thought Baghdatis would have him clamped down after the 3rd, but Ramos takes the 4th. Looks like he may be cramping up or something off of set point ... another super 1st round 5 setter.Comment -
EP thanks you i tail some of your plays along with my sando and my own dumb luck
i miss played millman under/played it over and corrected it in another 2 plays dont u know thanks a fking million i beat myself out of a monsterhole last nightComment -
BOL this year EP!!! Sorry I didn't get back about the AO thing you set up. My 3 kids are taking almost ALL of my time at the moment and I couldn't bite off more than I could chew. I think it would of been fun though. Thanks for asking
Good hit on Verdasco! I stayed away bec Verdasco is well, Verdasco. Nice comeback from down 2 sets to 1. Wish you luck this AO!!!Comment -
EP..u r a Beast
I went 1-1 with your plays yesterday..
Will tail all your plays today..
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Starting with a couple more slots filled for the open parlay.May add another play, but wanted to get these out.Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Day 2
Duckworth -165
A battle of Aussie wildcards with Duckworth and Mitchell. Duckworth's prep work saw him play Istomin tough in a three set loss in Sydney where two of the three sets went to tie breaks. Mitchell has started with a couple of losses, including a disheartening straight set loss to Alex Bolt in Sydney qualis. Mitchell really has been in poor form dating back to last season where has now lost 14 of his last 16 matches overall. Duckworth played well here last year, banging home his first Grand Slam win and then taking a set off Tipsarevic in a 2nd round loss. Mitchell won their two previous encounters, a three set win in Burnie last January and the other way back in 2009 in a Futures event. Duckworth may have some motivation to hand his compatriot a loss finally + the form looks in his favor along with the winning experience here in 2012.
J.Baker +5.5 [+100]
Baker goes against Nadal Killer, Lukas Rosol. This could even be potentially an upset spot as Rosol has definitely leveled off since his 15 minutes of fame at Wimbledon last year. He's still got a potentially deadly serve and ground strokes, but his consistency level is not always there as with many young players. Baker made it through qualis and has shown some improvement after an off-season training with Andy Murray. The key here for me is Baker getting good solid service games to keep these sets tight. If he does, than even with a Rosol win - there should be a possibility he can cover this number and if Rosol shows his inconsistency early - Baker needs to pounce on those break opportunities and take a set.
J.P. Smith +125
Smith & Sousa go at it for the 2nd time in 2013. Sousa beat Smith in three in qualis in Sydney. The price closed at basically a pick 'em for that one and it only opened for this one with Sousa as a marginal favorite. Sousa is still a dirt baller at heart, so I think that's why this hasn't drifted further out. Smith has shown some skill on hard courts with an impressive Challenger Title last Summer at Winnetka where he beat Berankis for the title. His form early this season has been competitve with a 2-2 mark in qualis of Sydney and Brisbane combined. Both are seeking their 1st Grand Slam win. Gut feeling that trying to beat the same guy in roughly one week will be tougher this time and Smith will have his chances if he can save/convert those big break points.
Weintraub-Pella Under 38.5 [-120]
Weintraub made it through qualis, while Pella will be seeing his 1st action since winning the Challenger Tour Final in November. Seems definite potential either for rust for Pella or Weintraub having issues handling Pella's better overall game. Neither serve is overpowering, so I expect the break opportunities to come in this one and we could have some runaway sets.Comment -
I think Mitchell knows Duckworth's game well and knows how to beat him when he plays well. Also think Mitchell is a bit of a mommas boy still, and plays a lot better at home with family around. Agree he never came close in 2012 to living up to the potential he started to show during the Aussie swing last year. But I think a big chunk of that issue was too young in the head to be traveling around the world constantly. If he doesn't get burned out I still think he has potential to be a top 50 player at least one day. (which is better than I see for the Duck long term personally)
That said, I also like Sousa to knock over Smith again. Was surprised he made such hard work of beating him last time. So based on my current form you probably should double up on Smithy and The Duck
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GL DMONEY,
I have a tennis addiction as well...Where do you teach? Currently playing 4.5 with a healing torn labrum. Serving has become more like pain mgt. BOL, KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALLComment -
Optional... how is your season going so far??Comment -
He's saying that fading him is probably a smart idea. Poking fun of himself some.Comment -
It's not how you start, it's how you end Champ ;-)
But not terrible so far really: http://optional.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/.Comment -
Smith is horrible. Sousa has played a lousy match and is still in control easily. Broke Sousa to open the 2nd and then has donated service games right and left. Don't see any way he's going to rally from down 0-2. Kuznetsova at least with an easy win to keep the open parlau churning forward. Hopefully the next picks get in the win column.Comment -
how bout serena under 14.5 paying 2.62?Comment -
I don't like playing those low low numbers. One set of even 6-3 and you're fukked. She might pull out a double bagel or breadsticks 6-1, 6-1 match ... but I'd rather look elsewhere.Comment
