Del Potro chokes on-serve. No opinion on that total. I would probably rather be on the over than under, but skipping.
-
Comment -
Delpo just gave up..Comment -
Blow me. There goes my futures play.Comment -
I like Jovanovsi to beat Date-Krum..
EP..I know u are pissed off about Delpo loss, but do you have an opinion on it??
Thanks buddy..Comment -
Well at least the Stephens-Robson one pushes if Stephens closes out here.Comment -
Big hold by Robson there. Need a break for the win on the over...at least we have the push locked up.Comment -
God damn it Robson! So close.Comment -
Congrats on jovanovski! Now cash that simon to finish it off
Comment -
first time betting on gay tennis and i am very impressed and happy. thanks EP.Comment -
simon eeked out a win, good call
Comment -
Yeah I give Monfils props for not rolling over down 2-0. Another good grind and the open parlay is in the money slot now with six slots complete and one to go!Comment -
Record: 18-11-3 [+9.18]
Day 6
Wickmayer +180
Wickmayer is one of the girls I picked up and followed early this season in Auckland. She trained very hard to prep for the season, seven tough weeks to try and turn it around after a tough season in 2012. Dividends were good in Auckland. She made the final and wasn't embarrassed in a 6-4, 6-4 finals loss to Radwanska. Kirilenko has been steady through two rounds, although as noted last round against Peng - she took advantage of a player who wilted terribly in the heat and was just an emotional mess if you saw her presser afterwards. I think Wickmayer poses a stiff challenge. She'll need to be on-point with her serve and take advantage of any openings Kirilenko gives her off her serve, but if she plays those big points well - she's shown some toughness. She's also playing perhaps with some extra purpose. Her grandfather passed away before her 1st rounder her and she dedicated the win to him. It did not seem to overly play with her emotions in round two, so I don't think it's a distraction - perhaps more of a motivator.
Jovanovski +105
Two ladies who may not have been slotted for this third round meet with Date-Krumm providing the opposition. Date-Krumm took full advantage of an ill-prepared Nadia Petrova in the 1st round, but did not look overly convincing against Peer last round. I thought Jovanovski showed good improvement from her opener in beating Safarova last round in a tight match. That should bode well for her, especially if her serve maintains some consistency.
Stephens-Robson Over 21 [-135]
Expecting another competitive battle like we saw between the two in Hobart. Robson needs to show some more consistency, but since it's big for both seeking a 4th round apperance - I think nerves will make this close.
[PUSH]
Simon -165
Of course you never know which version of Monfils shows up, but I think this match-up is tough for him. Simon is going to keep pushing the ball back in play and either challenge Monfils to construct points or make errors going for winners. Monfils admitted after his last match to feeling fatigued and that being a big point on the double fault issues. Simon is not someone you want to go play when you either feel tired or are coming off a demanding match. Monfils may raise his level and outperform Simon, but if he doesn't start quick and faces the prospect of having to rally in this match - his effort level may be lacking.
Seppi-Cilic Over 39.5 [-125]
Fancying a good quality match between these two. Seppi has impressed with an improved serve and he looks as fit as he has maybe ever been. Cilic's serve has been unbreakable through two rounds, so he figures to be able to hold deep into sets as well.
Open Parlay #3 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Li -1250
Slot #2: [R3] Almagro -240
Slot #3: [R2] Doubles - Bryans -1350
Slot #4: [R3] Kuznetsova -420
Slot #5: [R3] Gasquet -1150
Slot #6: [R2] Doubles - Venus/Serena -1500
Open Parlays: 1-1 [+0.33]
The open parlay is in the money spot, so time to secure that profit tonight. Be back later with some picks.
Comment -
1st order of business, finish the Open Parlay with some profit.
Open Parlay #3 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Li -1250
Slot #2: [R3] Almagro -240
Slot #3: [R2] Doubles - Bryans -1350
Slot #4: [R3] Kuznetsova -420
Slot #5: [R3] Gasquet -1150
Slot #6: [R2] Doubles - Venus/Serena -1500
Slot #7: [R3] Doubles - Quereshi/Rojer -260
The payout for this with the last slot is +227. To try to maximize the profit if this final pick holds, hedging with 0.75 units on Bellucci-Paire @ +180. So +0.35 if the upset occurs, +1.52 if Quereshi/Rojer finish it off.Comment -
More to come, but needed to get this up for the first matches.
Day 7
Almagro -130
Should be a good one with Almagro and Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic seems ot be living on borrowed time with these five setters. Tipsarevic is serving well, but he's leaving the door open a few too many times each match with break opps. Almagro has had a rock solid serve through three rounds. He has only been broken three times this tournament and if he is able to counter with a lot of holds today - I think all the pressure mounts on Tipsarevic. Mr.T has logged a ton of court time and while he's fit as they come, those minutes to add up over the course of the tournament. Almagro also has the added bonus of recent success in the Abu Dhabi exhibition of beating Tipsarevic on a hard surface.
Makarova +270
This was just a gut feeling I went with when the draws came out. Makarova has had some great success in Melbourne the last three years. Kerber had her number last year, but two meetings were on grass. Again, this is more gut than detail - so do what you shall.Comment -
Berdych-Anderson Total Sets Over 3.5 [-125]
These two met four times last season on different surfaces. Anderson took Berdych to five in a memorable match at the French Open and he took a set off him at the Paris Masters at the end of the season. They met here last season with Berdych winning in straights, but two of the sets went to tie breaks. I think Anderson is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now and that should afford him a shot to at least notch a set off Berdych again. Berdych has been rolling so far without dropping a set. Serve obviously will be massive for Anderson - he must hold to have a shot to take a set or more.Comment -
Early break for Makarova. Kerber playing extremely passive, not that a break means much in the WTA. Kerber looks absolutely awful early on.Comment -
wow. back on serve.Comment -
EP do you feel Na Li is fairly safe to use as the last leg of an open parlay?Comment -
I think so. Goerges was fortunate to win last round because Zheng choked on-serve trying to close the match out. I'd still hedge something on Goerges to make sure you make something out of your parlay overall.
Comment -
Seems as though everyone is on Almagro tonight. I think if Tipsarevic is on his game and just a little but more focused than he has been, he has the game to work Almagro to a 4 or 5 set match, which is a huge advantage for Tipsarevic. I know his previous matches may have taken a toll on his body, but it seems like he's been taking sets off to conserve energy. Trying to muster up a play on Tipsy, we'll see if i pull the trigger.Comment -
Good stuff as usual, thanks EP.Comment -
Since Open Parlay #3 is closing tonight, time for another.
Open Parlay #4 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R3] Doubles - Bryans -750
Slot #2: [R3] Doubles - Errani/Vinci -460
Slot #3: [R4] Radwanska -435Comment -
Kerber on a medical timeout for a lower back issue.Comment -
Makarova!! Serving for match. Here we go.Comment -
gasquet +160 vs tsonga. i likeComment -
Damn skippy Markarova!
Comment -
Hella nice call..maka is a beast in melbourneComment -
Makarova has gone 9-11 in matches the books were brave enough to start her as a dog in over the last 12 months..Comment -
Djokovic-Wawrinka Under 30 [-115]
Stanny has played some pretty solid tennis, but it's time for a massive step up in class and I think he's going find himself under huge pressure on-serve in this match. Djokovic as has been mentioned frequently, has not been broken yet. Wawrinka has a track record of mentally beating himself almost pre-match when he faces the elite @ Slams.Comment -
Never seen a bigger pair of dip shits win a doubles match than Bellucci & Paire. It looked like two guys at the YMCA playing doubles where one guy was the local hot shot [Paire] and the other guy was the dumb shit who couldn't hit a ball in [Bellucci]. Settled for the +0.35 with a third set TB loss.Comment -
Tipsarevic already complaining of a foot or heel problem.Comment
I got suckered on that one! Saw Robson was up 30-0 but choked it away and couldn't get to 4.
