Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

Good price on Stoner. I've got an offer up on Crutchlow at 36. Think I might put up a hopeful one on Casey at around 4 too. If either of them miss the start might get matched fast. If not will probably cancel.

I was waiting to see warm up times before I took Stoner. I got that price at Will Hill. They seem to be slow to move on many sports.

I know your a fan, but Crutchlow isn't going to win tonight, you would be better off taking the punt on Podium result for him i reckon. I think Honda 1-2 tonight.

[Optional]

Too late. Cal bet was matched.

[Puda]

like both plays

[MatI]

WTCC Hungary Race 2 Winner - Yvan Muller @ 5.50 - 0.5u

The only book I know that has odds for World Touring Cars is B365, but well worth jumping on if you can get it.

I just went out for a bite to eat. Before I left, it was @ 7.50 and already down to 5.50. Really should be around 3-4.00. Muller needs to get past both his team-mates, but he has had the pace on them all weekend. As long as he gets a good start, we will be in business.

[MatI]

EPL, NEWCASTLE vs MANCHESTER CITY - Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 - risking 1u

[MatI]

EPL, Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham to WIN @ 1.91 - 1u

[Optional]

The motorsport guru hits again.

Stoner got out to 3.85 as Lorenzo closed him down. I was just a little bit too greedy.

[MatI]

Thanks mate, good win for our Stoner. I should probably just lay off everything else!

I lost the WTCC bet, Muller had a bad race and just couldn't make his way through the traffic at all. I probably underestimated the difficulty of passing at Hungary a little. Then he went off a couple laps from the end and ended up dropping down to 10th place.

Are you staying up for Dega?

[Optional]

Yes, looking forward to seeing if I really like old school plate racing better after a couple of years of the twobys.

But haven't got a good tip for you though. Gut says have a play on Dinger/Keselowski.

Might fade Gordon in one of these;

Sun 5/6 7509 Jimmie Johnson #48 +105
1:00PM 7510 Jeff Gordon #24 -135

Sun 5/6 7511 Jeff Gordon #24 -130
1:00PM 7512 Carl Edwards #99 +100


What are you taking?

[MatI]

My least favourite style of racing the plate tracks. Way too dangerous but the rednecks love a little carnage. If anything, I prefer the tandem style because it spreads them out more and seems to reduce the chances of a 'big one'.

I'm not taking anyone for Win or Top 5 in this race. I will just take a H2H if I can find one I like. Leaning Stewart over KyBusch ot Harvick over Jnr, but looks as if there might not be any racing for a few hours. Track is very wet, and lots of rain still to come it seems.

[Optional]

Oh shit... might hit the hay for 3 or 4 hours in that case. How shitty it is that we get the Moto2 in HD and have to watch the MotoGP in SD btw?!

[MatI]

How shitty it is that we get the Moto2 in HD and have to watch the MotoGP in SD btw?!

It's whore shit!

[MatI]

NASCAR Sprint Cup Talladega
Race H2H - Stewart @ 1.83 over Kyle Busch - risking 1u
Race H2H - Harvick @ 1.74 over Dale Jnr - risking 1u

[MatI]

EPL, Blackburn v Wigan
Wigan - DNB @ 1.925 - 1u

[MatI]

EPL, Liverpool v Chelsea
Chelsea - DNB @ 2.50 - 1u

[MatI]

MLB, Miami Marlins(Sanchez) @ Houston Astros(Rodriguez)
Miami Marlins -1 @ 1.73 - risking 1.5u

[MatI]

AFL, West Coast Eagles v North Melbourne
North Melbourne Kangaroos +27.5 @ 1.83 - 1u - WIN

Italian Seria A, Siena v Parma
Parma - DNB @ 2.15 - 1u - WIN

MotoGP Portugal Race Winner - Stoner @ 2.30 - 1u - WIN

WTCC Hungary Race 2 Winner - Yvan Muller @ 5.50 - 0.5u - LOSS

EPL, NEWCASTLE vs MANCHESTER CITY
Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 - risking 1u - LOSS

EPL, Aston Villa v Tottenham
Tottenham to WIN @ 1.91 - 1u - LOSS

NASCAR Sprint Cup Talladega
Race H2H - Stewart @ 1.83 over Kyle Busch - risking 1u - LOSS
Race H2H - Harvick @ 1.74 over Dale Jnr - risking 1u - LOSS

EPL, Blackburn v Wigan
Wigan - DNB @ 1.925 - 1u - WIN

EPL, Liverpool v Chelsea
Chelsea - DNB @ 2.50 - 1u - LOSS

Just terrible at the moment. I should have really stayed away from Talladega race, too much of a lottery at that track. If i had kept away from those two H2H's i would have atleast seen a small profit for the week so far.


Thread Total YTD-
98-106-9
-10.27 units


Pending:
MLB, Miami Marlins(Sanchez) @ Houston Astros(Rodriguez)
Miami Marlins -1 @ 1.73 - risking 1.5u

[Optional]

Forecast rain for F1 race on Sunday Matt.

Do you think that brings the Mercs into play if it's wet?

[MatI]

Forecast rain for F1 race on Sunday Matt.

Do you think that brings the Mercs into play if it's wet?

Which forecast are you checking?

There is a chance of rain, but no certainty, and models wont be sure for at least another day or three. Need to sit tight..

If it is wet, Mercs could be in play, but were a bit of a no show in Malaysia when it rained. Barca is predominately an aero track so should favour McLaren/Red Bull/Lotus, no matter the weather IMO. Hard to say who has the best aero package at this stage, closest we have had to a good aero track is Malaysia... but then cars have changed a lot since then already.

[MatI]

On another note, 10 of the last 11 winners at Barcelona have started from Pole Position.

We need to figure who will get pole and we have our race winner.

Also, to keep in mind. In the last 10 years, 50 percent of previous races here have had a Safety Car, usually for a first lap incident. Unless there is good odds, I will be staying away from the SC prop bet this weekend.

[Optional]

4 of those five have been on the 1st lap. Only 1 SC out of the last 10 races from lap 2 onwards.

The track is probably too well suited to the RBR's biggest strength, fast corners, to give anyone but McLaren a serious chance.

[Optional]

Which forecast are you checking?

There is a chance of rain, but no certainty, and models wont be sure for at least another day or three. Need to sit tight..

Yeah, I didn't mean to sound like it was certain. Just thought rain taking the tyres out of play might help merc more than anyone else.

[cutchemist42]

Especially since Schumacher has still been on a tirade over those tires.

[MatI]

4 of those five have been on the 1st lap. Only 1 SC out of the last 10 races from lap 2 onwards.

The track is probably too well suited to the RBR's biggest strength, fast corners, to give anyone but McLaren a serious chance.

Exactly. best odds I have seen so far for no SC is approx 1.60, which is way too chalky considering the chances of SC at this track. If anything, value is now on the other side.

Agreed about RBR, but I think Lotus can not be ruled out at this stage. Friday practice will be very interesting, hopefully we get some answers.

Yeah, I didn't mean to sound like it was certain. Just thought rain taking the tyres out of play might help merc more than anyone else.

If it is wet, it will help them, but IMO it will help other teams more, like we saw in Malaysia.

Especially since Schumacher has still been on a tirade over those tires.

His comments are quite ironic, considering he had tailor made Bridgestones only for his use for years! Level playing field is not in the Schuey vocabulary.

[Optional]

Anthony Davidson thinks the Lotus is looking very good in early P1. Steady on the dirty track. Compared to Sauber who top the times.

I think he's a pretty good judge usually.

[MatI]

Anthony Davidson thinks the Lotus is looking very good in early P1. Steady on the dirty track. Compared to Sauber who top the times.

I think he's a pretty good judge usually.

I think Ant is a fukn idiot! But yes, i agree with him, Lotus looks good.

Red Bull looks very good as well. McLaren I think will be hard to predict here as they look to be focusing more on testing out their new front wing.

[MatI]

AFL, Melbourne vs Hawthorn, Over 190.5 @ 1.91 - 1u

[Optional]

LOL. I watched a replay of Melbourne practice and noticed he was spot on with a couple of similar early calls about car handling. Could be a bit of hangover credit for that still

[MatI]

I probably didnt word that very well. He does know his f1 very well. And usually right on the money with his technical analysis. I'm just not a very big fan of his personality or commentary style. I'm really enjoying sky sports so far, their coverage has been awesome. They have something like 21 hours of live coverage over this weekend.

It's early, but Red Bill looked very good. Lewis looked uncomfortable and locking up a lot. I can't see him being able to look after his tyres well enough over a full race distance. Alonso doing a glory run I think! I'm ignoring it for the moment.

GL with the tennis plays too mate.

[Optional]

Agree re RBR. This session should hopefully give some reliable race pace numbers. Have fingers crossed this might be a good week for Webber as well.

Agree about SkyF1 too. Love all the docos in between as well.

[MatI]

Hemorrhaging money at the moment, might as well burn a little more on F1 session.

Spanish GP, Fastest Free Practice 2 - Vettel @ 3.75 - 0.3u

[MatI]

MLB, Washington Nationals(Gonzalez) @ Cincinnati Reds(Leake)
Washington ML @ 1.85 - 1u

[MatI]

F1, Spanish Grand Prix
Pole Position - Vettel @ 3.75 - 0.5u
Qual H2H - Raikkonen @ 1.73 over Grosjean - risking 1u

The fight for pole position looks like it will be a fight between Red Bull & McLaren. McLaren won the battle in P2 during the qualy simulations, but a couple of factors favour Red Bull IMO. The RB seems a lot more stable around the circuit and didn't seem to be suffering from the killer understeer like the others. Also Vettel did his qualy simulation about 15 minutes before the McLaren's, when the circuit was not in as good a condition. I will back Sebastian Vettel in this spot, in a close one over McLaren.

I will also take Kimi Raikkonen over his team-mate in qualifying. Both have been quick all weekend but I would give the edge to Kimi on talent and KR has always been strong at Barcelona. Kimi only managed 11th last time out and still got on the podium, he will know that if he can get a top 6 qual position another podium this weekend will be well within reach and.

[Optional]

Ugh. That weird quali sucked ass for you Pleased to see a Williams on the front row though.

Do you think they will persist with these type of tyres for the full season? Lucky it was Button and Webber who missed Q3 or there would be a lot louder bitching already I think.

[MatI]

Yep, disaster. One of the most bizarre dry weather qual sessions I have seen. RB's pace just disappeared, I knew I had no chance for Vettel to get pole pretty early in the session, the track just seemed to have changed so much from P3 to Qual. And then Kimi had the H2H under control but made a mistake in the last part of his lap and missed out by 8 hundredths.

Anyway, another day, another chance to donate to the books.
Hamilton disqualified from pole position. Maldanado on pole.