Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

MLB, Miami Marlins(Sanchez) @ Houston Astros(Rodriguez)
Miami Marlins -1 @ 1.73 - risking 1.5u - LOSS

AFL, Melbourne vs Hawthorn, Over 190.5 @ 1.91 - 1u - LOSS

Spanish GP, Fastest Free Practice 2 - Vettel @ 3.75 - 0.3u - LOSS

MLB, Washington Nationals(Gonzalez) @ Cincinnati Reds(Leake)
Washington ML @ 1.85 - 1u - WIN

F1, Spanish Grand Prix
Pole Position - Vettel @ 3.75 - 0.5u - LOSS
Qual H2H - Raikkonen @ 1.73 over Grosjean - risking 1u - LOSS

Some really bad beats here. AFL score should have sailed over 191 but bad kicking meant it was destined to stay under. Vettel was 2nd in Practice 2, and would have most likely had fastest if he did his time later in the session. Vettel doesnt even both setting a time for pole position in qualifying and Raikkonen misses out to his teammate by the smallest of margins.



I am very close to giving it up, but also pretty determined to get into the positive for the year. Not sure yet.

Thread Total YTD-
99-111-9
-13.67 units

[MatI]

Alright, back for a little more punishment. Let's see if we can have a good F1 race and get some units back. A few plays for this race, but i'm not just throwing these out there, i do like all of these a lot. But who knows, anything can happen. Small write-up to follow.

F1, Spanish Grand Prix
Lap 1 Leader Alonso @ 2.37 - 0.5u
Winning Margin - Under 6.0 Seconds @ 1.85 - 1u
Podium - Raikkonen @ 1.72 - risking 1.5u
Dual Forecast/Quinella - Raikkonen/Grosjean @ 11.00 - 0.2u

Parlay:
Spanish GP Race H2H - Button @ 1.50 over Hamilton/AFL, Carlton ML vs StKilda @ 1.87 - u

[MatI]

Lap 1 Leader Alonso - Fernando is starting in 2nd place alongside Maldonado who picked up his first pole position yesterday. While I don't expect Alonso to have the pace to win the race, i think there is a very good chance he gets the jump on the pole sitter and lead the race early. 50/50 proposition here and worth a small play on this prop.

Winning Margin Under 6.0 Seconds - Another simple prop bet here. Placing this on the fact that majority of races in the Pirelli era have finished with close margins of victory. Whoever is in the lead usually conserves tyres and so more often than not the leader will be happy to concede time in the closing stages to keep some tyre life in hand. 3 of the first 4 races this year have had a margin of victory of less than 3.4 seconds.

Podium Raikkonen - Lotus have been one of the fastest cars in race trim during the practice sessions. Kimi only has to get past Maldonado, Alonso & his team-mate Grosjean. He should have the race pace over all 3. Question is, how many places can he make up?

Dual Forecast/Quinella Raikkonen/Grosjean - Long odds for this one, but I think a very good chance of hitting. Raikkonen and Grosjean have the pace on the guys ahead of them. If the race pans out smoothly, we could see a maiden 1-2 for Lotus GP.

Race H2H Button over Hamilton - Button starting 10th, Hamilton 24th. Button has extra sets of fresh tyres compared to Hamilton, and as long as Button has a straight forward race, this should hit with ease.

[Optional]

Thats a great price for Kimi to podium.

Mark Webber +130* vs Jenson Button seems like a bit of a gift to me. Jenson hasn't shut up about how much he hates the hard tyres, and has looked shitty a lot of the time. Webber just made a tactical quali error to be back with him on grid.

[MatI]

Yeah, was looking at that one too. very good value. Should probably be even money.

What held me off was Button has traditionally been better at looking after tyre wear the last couple of years and this race should be fairly high tyre in that regard. Especially on green track. There was overnight rain on circuit.

[Optional]

I've gone 3u on it. Still tossing up something on Vettel. Maybe just a podium +121 though.

Wish I had put more than 25 points on Alonso +2000 with sbr now too

[MatI]

I was very close to taking Vettel podium, but held off because of their lack of straight line speed and I expect both Lotus on podium. Good luck with your plays mate. Should be a cracking race.

[Optional]

Congrats Matty, 3 nice calls. 4 if you count telling me not to go large on Webber h2h.

Did you see Senna had a hissy fit and tried to blow up the Williams pits after the race?

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/8947/capturempgsnapshot04373.jpg

http://twitpic.com/9konft

[MatI]

Congrats Matty, 3 nice calls. 4 if you count telling me not to go large on Webber h2h.

Did you see Senna had a hissy fit and tried to blow up the Williams pits after the race?

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/8947/capturempgsnapshot04373.jpg

http://twitpic.com/9konft

Thanks mate, I was spewing about the button/Lewis H2H.

I was in shock Hammy made that 2 stop strategy work. Button was screwed anyway once he went to softs on his 3rd stint. The Lotus & Webber cars did that too. I have no idea why as it ruined better results for all. It was obvious the harder tyre was the right one from lap 3 when perez pitted on the 1st lap and was 2 seconds a lap faster.

That fire was incredible. Did you see the sky sports footage? http://youtu.be/_RHC0NOeOTE

Dramatic stuff. I heard all the computer and electrical equipment in the pits is rooted, but apparently teams are all pitching in to lend stuff to them until they get sorted.

[MatI]

F1, Spanish Grand Prix
Lap 1 Leader Alonso @ 2.37 - 0.5u - WIN
Winning Margin - Under 6.0 Seconds @ 1.85 - 1u - WIN
Podium - Raikkonen @ 1.72 - risking 1.5u - WIN
Dual Forecast/Quinella - Raikkonen/Grosjean @ 11.00 - 0.2u - LOSS

Parlay:
Spanish GP Race H2H - Button @ 1.50 over Hamilton/AFL, Carlton ML vs StKilda @ 1.87 - 1u - LOSS

I had a typo on the parlay unit size, leaving it blank. It should have been 1unit. Ended the day up 1.5u.

Thread Total YTD-
102-113-9
-12.21 units

[MatI]

AFL, StKilda vs Carlton
HT - Carlton -14.5 @ 1.91 - 1u

[MatI]

ACL, Nagoya Grampus v Central Coast Mariners, Over 2.5 @ 1.70 - risking 1.5u

[Sol]

Missed the play! 2 goals early in the game, hope it hits buddy.

You see any value on Chelsea for the CL final? Not certain i will bet but bit surprised at the odds.

[BigTimeWinner]

ACL, Nagoya Grampus v Central Coast Mariners, Over 2.5 @ 1.70 - risking 1.5u

Can't believe how poor CCM is , they barely had a chance to score... I did not see your post but I had taken the over long time ago lol
Lets hope we cash this buddy

[MatI]

Missed the play! 2 goals early in the game, hope it hits buddy.

You see any value on Chelsea for the CL final? Not certain i will bet but bit surprised at the odds.

Thanks Sol, hopefully there is one more goal in this 2nd half.

There has to be value in Chelsea considering what they did against Barca. They have just been on a dream run since the departure of AVB. I will not play it though, I am hoping they lose so Spurs can take the 4th CL spot. If anything, i will take the over in that game and hope for some good action.

I will most likely be playing the Buriram/Guanzhao game but will be taking it live if i can get a better line.

[MatI]

Can't believe how poor CCM is , they barely had a chance to score... I did not see your post but I had taken the over long time ago lol
Lets hope we cash this buddy

You on an over? I would never have guessed!

CCM just can't break down the Nagoya defence. It has me nervous about this final goal...

[BigTimeWinner]

lol yeah! honestly I am not even hoping CCM'll score, I hope Nagoya can break through somehow and get us the third goal ... The japanese are just waaay too fast for CCM lol

[BigTimeWinner]

oh wow , two big chances for CCM as I was writing that

[MatI]

So close.... I think CCM goal is our only realistic chance of hitting the over. Nagoya have no real reason to score anymore.

[BigTimeWinner]

Yeah, I'm hoping a faster counter attack while CCM is attacking... Let's see what happens, 25 min to go

[MatI]

LIVE BET: ACL, Buriram v Guangzhou - Over 2.5 @ 2.62 - 1u

[BigTimeWinner]

TULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO niceeeeeeee

[MatI]

We got it just in time.

[BigTimeWinner]

We got it just in time.

phew, that saved my ass after some stupid bets yesterday

Anything else you like from the champions league for the rest of the day?

[MatI]

I think i will stay off other CL games.

A bit of a stalemate in Buriram/Guangzhou game. Pre-game odds were @ 1.57 and I thought this would be a bit of a goal-fest. There hasn't even been many solid chances so far and already approaching HT.

[BigTimeWinner]

I think i will stay off other CL games.

A bit of a stalemate in Buriram/Guangzhou game. Pre-game odds were @ 1.57 and I thought this would be a bit of a goal-fest. There hasn't even been many solid chances so far and already approaching HT.

ahhh I actually wanted to bet on the over 2.5/3 but I said I was gonna bet on it only if Nagoya over hits. By the time Buriam started the score was 2-0 so I stayed away from it. Can't believe it's still 0-0

[MatI]

ahhh I actually wanted to bet on the over 2.5/3 but I said I was gonna bet on it only if Nagoya over hits. By the time Buriam started the score was 2-0 so I stayed away from it. Can't believe it's still 0-0

2 goals early in the 2nd half so there is still a chance now. I can hedge now for guaranteed profit but the game has opened up, and with the score at 1-1 I think i will ride this out and hope for one more with 30mins still to play.

[BigTimeWinner]

there goes your over 2.5

[MatI]

[jshewit]

really good forum and west ham to be promoted

[MatI]

MLB, KC Royals(Mazzaro) @ TEXAS Rangers(Lewis) - Over 10.0 @ 1.95 - 1u

[MatI]

ACL, Gamba Osaka v Adelaide United
Adelaide United DNB @ 2.20 - 1u

I will also hopefully placing a bet on the Brisbane game, but I will hold tight for a better line during the game.

[Sol]

Tailing for a bit of midweek action. Seems a good spot to pick Adelaide. GL!

[MatI]

Yep, good spot for AU here. Gamba Osaka not starting their strongest squad as they are already out of ACL and focusing on J-League. Also, Adelaide need the win for home ground advantage in next round.

GL to us.

[Sol]

Nice hit!