Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

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  • MatI
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-17-11
    • 5200

    #736
    Thanks for the heads up on that, all english speakin previews have talked about Pohang running the same squad as last time out against Adelaide.

    I was leaning Adelaide to begin with, and this helps nudge me across the line. Adelaide played really well against Pahong two weeks ago and should have walked away with a draw if not for the Galekovic mistake. Pahong will also be coming from winter conditions in Korea to a very warm Adelaide - its 30 degrees today. The only thing going against Adelaide is their last competitive game was their match up against Pahong so they may be less sharp. That isn't enough to put me off though as Pahong seem to have more going against them in this situation.
    Comment
    • MatI
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-17-11
      • 5200

      #737
      ACL, Adelaide United v Pohang Steelers
      Adelaide United - DNB @ 2.05 - 1u
      Comment
      • Optional
        Administrator
        • 06-10-10
        • 61625

        #738
        On it. Go serial killer town!
        .
        Comment
        • MatI
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-17-11
          • 5200

          #739
          Let's get it.

          Also jumping on this now...

          Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Lewis Hamilton @ 2.50 - 1u

          China provided a great opportunity for Mercedes, with a straight longer than the great wall of china helping them use their 'double DRS' to its maximum, however Hamilton showed they could still mix it up and qualified second before taking his penalty. Despite all the love for Mercedes due to dominating qualifying and the race last time out I expect McLaren to be back on top this time. Bahrain will be a lot warmer, and that seems to favour teams like McLaren, Red Bull & Lotus. Mercedes have proven they can control tyre wear in colder conditions in the last few grands prix, but I am not convinced they can do so yet in hotter conditions, and Bahrain will most likely see the hottest track conditions of the year. This should mean they will have to dial some speed out of the car to be able to survive a the race stints and another pole for McLaren looks the most likely. Hamilton has out qualified Button 3 times out of 3 so far, and im hoping that continues this weekend.
          Comment
          • Optional
            Administrator
            • 06-10-10
            • 61625

            #740
            I read a Lotus tweet where they say the next track they expect to compete for a podium is Spa, kind of hosing down hopes for Bahrain.

            Tailed you on the Hamilton pole bet. Can't see who will seriously challenge them in warm conditions on the same Soft/Medium tyre allocation. I also took Massa for Top 10 in race @ 2.75, and Kimi for fastest lap @ 11.50

            Button is $1.55 for top 3 in quali on BF. Thinking about some of that too if it goes up a little.
            .
            Comment
            • tommygun
              SBR MVP
              • 07-01-10
              • 2239

              #741
              congrats on the adelaide utd game, they left it late, I was at the match !
              BETTING EXCHANGES, easy money.

              Soccer Tipping: 5-0-1
              Comment
              • tommygun
                SBR MVP
                • 07-01-10
                • 2239

                #742
                also, nice write up on the GP guys, I might tail this Lewis Hamilton play.
                BETTING EXCHANGES, easy money.

                Soccer Tipping: 5-0-1
                Comment
                • MatI
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5200

                  #743
                  Originally posted by tommygun
                  congrats on the adelaide utd game, they left it late, I was at the match !
                  That would have been a good game to attend! Adelaide seemed not quite themselves for most of the game and Pahong and some fantastic chances to take the lead. The last 5-10 minutes really had that feel that their would be a late goal, i just wasnt sure which side it would be on though, great to get a late winner in our favour.


                  Originally posted by Optional
                  I read a Lotus tweet where they say the next track they expect to compete for a podium is Spa, kind of hosing down hopes for Bahrain.

                  Tailed you on the Hamilton pole bet. Can't see who will seriously challenge them in warm conditions on the same Soft/Medium tyre allocation. I also took Massa for Top 10 in race @ 2.75, and Kimi for fastest lap @ 11.50

                  Button is $1.55 for top 3 in quali on BF. Thinking about some of that too if it goes up a little.
                  Interesting that they are writing off their chances until then. I would think there are plenty of chances for Lotus to sneak a podium before then, and they don't seem to be dominant in top speed, which is what Spa is all about, not sure why they are eyeing that circuit... Kimi seems to think a podium is still possible, and I agree. They are working well in hot temps.. .. http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/98929

                  And I agree about the JB Qualy bet, that has a solid chance to hit. I am expecting them to lock out 1st & 2nd on the grid, but those odds are very chalky. I wouldnt go heavy on it as we still havent seen a good mix of track types and conditions.
                  Comment
                  • Optional
                    Administrator
                    • 06-10-10
                    • 61625

                    #744
                    Yeah it seems anything could happen based on first 3 races.

                    I think Lotus might have been thinking they will be forced into 4 stopping Bahrain. Just a wild guess though.
                    .
                    Comment
                    • MatI
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-17-11
                      • 5200

                      #745
                      Indeed. Tyre ear will be the big story coming out of the race this weekend I think. 3 stops will be the standard and IMO some will definitely have to make 4. This is also going to mean some teams conserving softs in Qual to save for the race (Merc?).
                      Comment
                      • MatI
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-17-11
                        • 5200

                        #746
                        UEFA CL, Chelsea v Barcelona - Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 - risking 1u

                        This will be a cracking game I think, whatever the outcome. It's hard for me to pick a result, but I do not expect a quiet nil-all draw. I like the over in this game as well but I will take what I think is the safer option of both teams to score. Barca can score at any time, and Chelsea cannot afford to fall behind in this game as they are unlikely to get much of a look in during the 2nd leg at Camp Nou. So i'm expecting goals here, and atleast 1 goal from each side will do me nicely.
                        Comment
                        • MatI
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-17-11
                          • 5200

                          #747
                          A loss on the champions league play. Chelsea score but no luck with Barca. They had plenty of shots on goal, but nothing through.

                          Originally posted by MatI
                          ACL, Adelaide United v Pohang Steelers
                          Adelaide United - DNB @ 2.05 - 1u - WIN
                          Originally posted by MatI
                          UEFA CL, Chelsea v Barcelona - Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 - risking 1u - LOSS

                          Thread Total YTD-
                          74-75-8
                          -5.57 units


                          Pending:
                          F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Lewis Hamilton @ 2.50 - 1u
                          Comment
                          • MatI
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-17-11
                            • 5200

                            #748
                            Parlay-
                            Rugby League International Test, NZ vs AUSTRALIA ML / AFL, ST KILDA vs FREMANTLE +31.5 @ 1.98 - risking 2u
                            Comment
                            • MatI
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-17-11
                              • 5200

                              #749
                              It was a good start to the weekend with a winner on the parlay. I'm getting this H2H pick in now before Sunday and may add to it depending on how the rest of the GP weekend goes.

                              F1, Bahrain GP Race H2H - Jenson Button @ 2.00 over Hamilton - 1u
                              Comment
                              • MatI
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-17-11
                                • 5200

                                #750
                                Originally posted by MatI
                                F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Lewis Hamilton @ 2.50 - 1u
                                I've lost a lot of confidence in the above play after practice sessions 1 & 2. It seems that Mercedes are definitely starting to find a sweet spot on their setup. Even the Merc race stint simulations during practice looked very competitive. I am still not convinced that they can hold it together for a full race in such hot track conditions, however it does look like they have the one lap pace to take pole position again.

                                Schumacher looked fast and was on pace to take the fastest time in P2 but ended up hitting some traffic, Rosberg got in a really solid lap which was was not beaten for the final 30 mins of the session. While it would be nice to take both Schuey & Rosberg, I will just add a play for a Rosberg Pole as he has always been strong here going back to his GP2 days.

                                F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Nico Rosberg @ 3.00 - 1u
                                Comment
                                • MatI
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-17-11
                                  • 5200

                                  #751
                                  V8 Supercars Hamilton 400, Podium - Garth Tander @ 1.75 - 1u

                                  Tander has taken a surprise pole position here ahead of the favoured Triple 8 and FPR cars. Tander is one of the most consistent drivers on street circuits and also has one of the better records at hamilton apart from Jamie Whincup. Whincup doesn't seem to have the dominant pace this weekend as he has previously and FPR, had a very disappointing qual session. Give me Garth Tander for the podium and I wouldn't be surprised if he disappears into the distance and takes the win while everyone squabbles behind.

                                  Race starts in 14 minutes!
                                  Comment
                                  • MatI
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-17-11
                                    • 5200

                                    #752
                                    I am liking a lot of games today. I don't normally like having so many bets on the go at one time but im taking them because I feel strong about all these today...

                                    Parlay-
                                    AFL, CARLTON -15.5 vs ESSENDON/COLLINGWOOD -15.5 vs PORT ADELAIDE @ 1.87 - risking 2u

                                    AFL, CARLTON vs ESSENDON - Most Disposals H2H, CHRIS JUDD @ 1.75 over Jobe Watson - 1u

                                    Judd has been in reat form so far this season and will be going up against Watson in the centre of the park. I can see Carlton dominating this game out of the middle of the park, which should lead to Judd beating Watson the possession count.

                                    With the Parlay I am taking both these teams at the line if -15.5, but I expect both Carlton & Collingwood to win by 35 or more points, and with both games being played at the same time I would rather just take the parlay with a little buffer on the spread.
                                    Comment
                                    • showtiime
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-16-11
                                      • 2850

                                      #753
                                      Tailing the motor sport plays bud.
                                      Comment
                                      • MatI
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-17-11
                                        • 5200

                                        #754
                                        GL showtime, hopefully we make some money.

                                        Carlton let me down big time today.

                                        Originally posted by MatI
                                        Parlay-
                                        Rugby League International Test, NZ vs AUSTRALIA ML / AFL, ST KILDA vs FREMANTLE +31.5 @ 1.98 - risking 2u - WIN
                                        Originally posted by MatI
                                        V8 Supercars Hamilton 400, Podium - Garth Tander @ 1.75 - 1u - WIN
                                        Originally posted by MatI
                                        Parlay-
                                        AFL, CARLTON -15.5 vs ESSENDON/COLLINGWOOD -15.5 vs PORT ADELAIDE @ 1.87 - risking 2u - LOSS

                                        AFL, CARLTON vs ESSENDON - Most Disposals H2H, CHRIS JUDD @ 1.75 over Jobe Watson - 1u - LOSS
                                        Thread Total YTD-
                                        76-77-8
                                        -5.93 units

                                        Pending:
                                        F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Lewis Hamilton @ 2.50 - 1u
                                        F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Nico Rosberg @ 3.00 - 1u
                                        F1, Bahrain GP Race H2H - Jenson Button @ 2.00 over Hamilton - 1u
                                        Comment
                                        • Optional
                                          Administrator
                                          • 06-10-10
                                          • 61625

                                          #755
                                          Damn damn damn. Vettel comes from nowhere to kill our Hamilton bets for pole. He found 1.1 seconds from somewhere between Q2 and Q3. Little bastard!
                                          .
                                          Comment
                                          • MatI
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-17-11
                                            • 5200

                                            #756
                                            fukn vettel, fukn spoils it! Impressive improvement by RB, where the hell did they pull that from?! And Rosberg chokes as well! Spewing big time, but entertaining as hell that qually session.
                                            Comment
                                            • MatI
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-17-11
                                              • 5200

                                              #757
                                              Bundesliga, FC Koln v Stuttgart
                                              Stuttgart to WIN @ 1.91 - 1u

                                              EPL, Newcastle v Stoke
                                              Newcastle to WIN @ 1.72 - risking 1u
                                              Comment
                                              • MatI
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-17-11
                                                • 5200

                                                #758
                                                MLB, ST LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH
                                                ST LOUIS ML @ 1.73 - risking 1u
                                                Comment
                                                • Sol
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 01-29-12
                                                  • 111

                                                  #759
                                                  GL w/ STL. On Kershaw and Halladay for todays games. Caught any of the Yank/Sox game? 7-0 to 9-2 to 15-9. Bullpen is a mess for Boston.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MatI
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                    • 5200

                                                    #760
                                                    Hi Sol, thanks mate. I was tossing up between taking Kershaw or Westbrook and ended up going with Westbrook, I am still a little scared to take Dodgers but they are on a solid run, I also love fading AJ Burnett, but apart from loading the bases in the 1st he has pitched well so far... Kershaw looking good as always.

                                                    I didn't catch any of the Yankees game as I woke up late but I checked the score when it was at 9-2, and then was watching the box score as they started to pile on the runs! Sox are contuing their meltdown from last year.. I do wonder how long Valentine will last.

                                                    Funny you mention Halladay as I just locked him in as well. Hopefully the SD domination continues and no reason to think it won't with Halladay on the mound. I don't think either team will put up a big run total, but Phillies win. GL to us.

                                                    PHI Phillies(R Halladay) @ SD Padres(C Luebke)
                                                    Phillies ML @ 1.69 - risking 1.5u
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MatI
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5200

                                                      #761
                                                      Originally posted by MatI
                                                      F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Lewis Hamilton @ 2.50 - 1u - LOSS
                                                      F1, Bahrain GP - Pole Position, Nico Rosberg @ 3.00 - 1u - LOSS


                                                      Originally posted by MatI
                                                      Bundesliga, FC Koln v Stuttgart - LOSS
                                                      Stuttgart to WIN @ 1.91 - 1u

                                                      EPL, Newcastle v Stoke
                                                      Newcastle to WIN @ 1.72 - risking 1u - WIN

                                                      Originally posted by MatI
                                                      MLB, ST LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH
                                                      ST LOUIS ML @ 1.73 - risking 1u - LOSS

                                                      Originally posted by MatI
                                                      PHI Phillies(R Halladay) @ SD Padres(C Luebke)
                                                      Phillies ML @ 1.69 - risking 1.5u - LOSS

                                                      I'm over this shit. I wouldn't be able to pick a winner if it was a -10000 fav. Cards get shut out, and Phillies on their way to being shut out as well.


                                                      Thread Total YTD-
                                                      77-82-8
                                                      -9.70 units

                                                      Pending:
                                                      F1, Bahrain GP Race H2H - Jenson Button @ 2.00 over Hamilton - 1u
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Sol
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-29-12
                                                        • 111

                                                        #762
                                                        Sigh. I saw a lot of AJ last season and he was erratic at best, very few good starts, that might be one of his only for this season unfortunately, no luck. Halladay in a couple of jams early, first time he has walked three pitchers in a row since 2004 apparently. Not that it mattered, no run support.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Puda
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-26-10
                                                          • 1798

                                                          #763
                                                          Bad luck boi. AJ is such a hit and miss pitcher.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BigTimeWinner
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 01-13-12
                                                            • 1070

                                                            #764
                                                            brisbane - perth over 2.5 of the year?

                                                            srsly guys, I haven't placed a bet in more than 7 days now, I came back just to bet on the brisbane game lol
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gotov
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 06-16-10
                                                              • 198

                                                              #765
                                                              Originally posted by BigTimeWinner
                                                              brisbane - perth over 2.5 of the year?

                                                              srsly guys, I haven't placed a bet in more than 7 days now, I came back just to bet on the brisbane game lol
                                                              i havent had a play on a-lge for a while now, i like the over2.5 here
                                                              might have some loose change on roar 3-0, 4-0
                                                              happy gf day
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MatI
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-17-11
                                                                • 5200

                                                                #766
                                                                Thanks Puda, didn't expect AJ to be lights out on his first appearance for the year. Bad call.

                                                                And re. Brisbane game, yeah over is the play. I'm sure you know I like the over in these sorts of games. So It's mush now...

                                                                A-League, Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory, Over 2.5 @ 1.73 - 1u
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BigTimeWinner
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 01-13-12
                                                                  • 1070

                                                                  #767
                                                                  Originally posted by MatI
                                                                  Thanks Puda, didn't expect AJ to be lights out on his first appearance for the year. Bad call.

                                                                  And re. Brisbane game, yeah over is the play. I'm sure you know I like the over in these sorts of games. So It's mush now...

                                                                  A-League, Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory, Over 2.5 @ 1.73 - 1u
                                                                  odds for the over 1,794 @5dimes

                                                                  edit: 1,820 now :O
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MatI
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                                    • 5200

                                                                    #768
                                                                    Yeah, sry, my 5d acct is severely depleted at the moment, so i am using acct with more funds @ WillHill.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Punter101
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-19-12
                                                                      • 640

                                                                      #769
                                                                      Originally posted by MatI

                                                                      And re. Brisbane game, yeah over is the play. I'm sure you know I like the over in these sorts of games. So It's mush now...

                                                                      A-League, Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory, Over 2.5 @ 1.73 - 1u
                                                                      I had the play in as soon as perth won last week let's hope for an early goal
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • MatI
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                                        • 5200

                                                                        #770
                                                                        Ah well, nothing going into HT. We are going to need an epic 2nd half boys.
                                                                        Comment
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