Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

i am an NFL nut so the Lions naturally came to me. Tigers will no doubt win a lot of games, i know a lot of people are favoring the Angels but i still really like Texas, just a real strong lineup. I don't think the Red Sox have done much to improve upon last seasons meltdown, Yanks seemed to do a decent job retooling their pitching staff but still have a few holes even with a gazillion dollar roster. Phillies are off to a bit of a slow start as well, i had a future on them last season thinking their pitching would be too dominant, but they need another bat or two as well.

Haha, are you confident Epstein will build a winner? Had a look at their box score earlier today, not many names i recognize, Castro is meant to develop into a stud? Hopefully we can make a bit of money this season!

Angels are popular because of the Pujols factor. They also have CJ Wilson this year, but I still don't think they will be able to compete with the likes of Detroit & Texas. And then add in Tampa Bay & Yankees will always come on strong, there just wont be any room for the Angels come playoffs.

I am sure Epstein will improve the Cubs, but it is not around the corner by any means. The whole roster needs a huge shake up. I like Darwin Barney, he seems solid, but I am not sold on Castro at all. He is an amazing hitter - but no power really, and for all the RBI's he can give the team, he loses double that on fielding errors. He is very frustrating to watch. Biggest problem at the moment is a lack of batting power and bullpen. Marmol, the closer has choked away too many games in the last 12 months. Epstein seems to be re-building from the bottom up though, so I will be patient. Already waited 108 years, we can wait a little longer!

[MatI]

Bundesliga, Augsburg v Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.91 -1u

[Optional]

Have you thought about the F1 race at all yet Mat?

Already taken Kimi for fastest lap again, $11.50 is generous I think.

Won't be long until books remember how much he strategizes to get them now.

[rentongfb]

Have you thought about the F1 race at all yet Mat?

Already taken Kimi for fastest lap again, $11.50 is generous I think.

Won't be long until books remember how much he strategizes to get them now.

when is the race?

[Optional]

Sunday

[Optional]

Bundesliga, Augsburg v Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.91 -1u

Cash that baby with 10mins left in the first half

[MatI]

MLB, NY YANKEES(Garcia,F) @ BALTIMORE(Chen,W-Y)
NY YANKEES ML @ 1.77 - risking 1u

[MatI]

Cash that baby with 10mins left in the first half

Nice and easy, that one!

Have you thought about the F1 race at all yet Mat?

Already taken Kimi for fastest lap again, $11.50 is generous I think.

Won't be long until books remember how much he strategizes to get them now.

To be honest, I havent given it a huge amount of thought yet, or even looked at any of the odds. I'm hoping to have a good look in the next day or so.

I am not in a huge hurry because of this report - http://f1weather.com/2012/04/09/form...arly-forecast/

I'd rather hold off and see the forecast closer to the weekend, but it looks like a good chance Saturday will be effected by rain but at this clearing before race start.

Without looking at any of the offs, if is try for qual, i am keen to sprinkle a little on the Mercedes cars for Pole Position due to the massive straight at Shanghai, and from memory, something like 70 percent of this lap is @ full throttle, but i need to go over the numbers more thoroughly.

Kimi for FL is definately a great value bet at this stage, and that Lotus has lots of pace. I'll most likely jump on that as well for a small amount. Will post more when i've had a proper look.

[MatI]

LIVE BET - NBA, Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (+1.5) @ 1.85 - 1u


Really kicking myself right now. I was keen to fade the Cubs today but backed out due to the dodgy weather conditions at Wrigley. Thought it might even thinks up a bit. Cubs down 5-0 in the 1st.

And Garcia is going on my fade list. He looked pretty good last year, after a dodgy few seasons, but good old Garcia is back.

[MatI]

Bad moving taking Heat for 2nd Half. Their season is over. I need to just layoff of NBA all together...

Some stats for Chinese GP:
55percent of lap @ full throttle - probably not enough to consider Mercedes for Pole to be honest.
Pits Stops - Last years winning strategy was 3 stops. I'd expect this to be the same, with some teams also trying 2 stops. Sauber would be excellent candidate once again.
Safety Cars - 45percent chance of SC. Real chances are slightly lower as 2005 & 2010 races were effected by 2 SC's in unusual circumstances. I like option of no SC in this race.
Pole to Win - Occured 4 out of 8 times. All wins from Pole, in dry conditions, except one.

[Punter101]

Bad moving taking Heat for 2nd Half. Their season is over. I need to just layoff of NBA all together...

Not necessarily, when your shooting 60% from the field it's tough to stop you, celtics were even forced into some tough shots late on and they still converted those, just one of those nights when everything goes right but you can't have 4 great nights like that in the playoffs, far from it. Go Heat But i have stopped betting on nba all together, exclusively football now

[MatI]

Not necessarily, when your shooting 60% from the field it's tough to stop you, celtics were even forced into some tough shots late on and they still converted those, just one of those nights when everything goes right but you can't have 4 great nights like that in the playoffs, far from it. Go Heat But i have stopped betting on nba all together, exclusively football now

Yeah Celtics were definitely shooting lights out. I wasn't watching, just following on gamecast, but I should have stayed away from that match-up, but I really thought Heat would come back to win SU, especially after their beat down last week.

I'm bored at work, and sussing out the K-League games now. You like any?

[MatI]

EPL, Newcastle v Bolton
Newcastle -1 @ 1.85 - 1u - WIN

Bundesliga, Augsburg v Stuttgart - Over 2.5 @ 1.91 -1u - WIN

MLB, NY YANKEES(Garcia,F) @ BALTIMORE(Chen,W-Y)
NY YANKEES ML @ 1.77 - risking 1u - WIN

LIVE BET - NBA, Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (+1.5) @ 1.85 - 1u - LOSS

Thread Total YTD-
63-65-8
-9.2 units

[MatI]

AFL, CARLTON vs COLLINGWOOD
CARLTON ML @ 1.82 - 1.5u

This is on Friday, but jumping on now as this already started at PK and is moving fairly quickly. I like the Blues against an out of sorts Collingwood. Blues will be almost back to full strength while the pies are still trying to find their form and are now without Tarrant.

[Punter101]

Carlton eh seems like its their year. I got Daegu and Gwangju to win, saying it will prob jinx me but i didn't look too much into it. Either way lots of football later on to make some

[MatI]

Yeah, i was going to take Gwangju DNB, but got busy and didnt get a chance to put it on. Sitting at 1-1 with 20mins to go. I hope they get up for ya.

[Punter101]

A draw and a loss I really need to start taking DNB

[Optional]

I am not in a huge hurry because of this report - http://f1weather.com/2012/04/09/form...arly-forecast/

I hadn't even thought of weather, or looked at anything when I posted. Thanks for that.

Bad moving taking Heat for 2nd Half. Their season is over. I need to just layoff of NBA all together...

Some stats for Chinese GP:
55percent of lap @ full throttle - probably not enough to consider Mercedes for Pole to be honest.
Pits Stops - Last years winning strategy was 3 stops. I'd expect this to be the same, with some teams also trying 2 stops. Sauber would be excellent candidate once again.
Safety Cars - 45percent chance of SC. Real chances are slightly lower as 2005 & 2010 races were effected by 2 SC's in unusual circumstances. I like option of no SC in this race.
Pole to Win - Occured 4 out of 8 times. All wins from Pole, in dry conditions, except one.

Rosberg has managed a 2nd row start both tries in the Merc, so the underlying package maybe does suit the config for single lap speed.

Wondering if RBR have managed to do anything much about their lack of straight line speed in these weeks off. Hard to forget Vettels dominance of pole here when he's $7.60 right now on BF.

Lotus might also be a candidate for a 2 stopper I think.

Going to wait until weather forecast is clearer now I think.

[MatI]

I wouldnt touch RB for Pole until they actually show they can pull some one lap pace out of the this years car. That car is much better in race pace than single lap last year. I'd even rank Merc & Lotus ahead of them on single lap pace. Only two races in though, so plenty of time for things to change.

One Parlay for tonight in EPL-
Man Utd ML/Arsenal ML @ 2.02 - 1.5u

I like these two to dominate tonight against Wigan & Wolves. GL!

[MatI]

Man Utd ML/Arsenal ML @ 2.02 - 1.5u - LOSS

And so Man Utd drop points for the first time ever against Wigan. Sickening.


Thread Total YTD-
63-66-8
-10.7 units


Pending:
AFL, CARLTON vs COLLINGWOOD
CARLTON ML @ 1.82 - 1.5u

[MatI]

F1, Chinese GP Winner - JENSON BUTTON @ 3.20 - 1u
F1, Chinese GP Race H2H - JENSON BUTTON @ 2.00 over Hamilton - 1u

I am jumping on Button now for this weekend. Good value here, most books already have JB @ 3.00. McLaren have shown they have the fastest car on the grid and Hamilton will be given a 5 place grid penalty, so Button has a distinct advantage over his team mate at this stage. The weather forecast is now looking pretty good for Sunday and only a slim chance of it effecting qual on Saturday, so as long as he gets a decent qual position, JB has a great chance of taking the win.

[Optional]

Thanks for heads up. Just jumped on that at $3.50 at BM

[MatI]

No worries mate. Good value there at BM, they are an American book yeah? Slow on the uptake I see, i bet they still have Lewis as race favorite. I have also added Button @ 2.00 H2H over Ham. I have added it to my post above. Great value!

[Optional]

Yeah US facing. I have a couple for NASCAR mostly. Ham was still fave at time.

I should start thinking for myself here, not sure why I didn't grab the H2H too as well.

[MatI]

MLB, ARIZONA D'backs (I Kennedy) @ SD Padres (A Bass)
ARIZONA D'backs ML @ 1.74 - risking 1u

[MatI]

F1, Chinese GP - Pole Position
ROSBERG @ 15.00 - 0.25u
SCHUMACHER @ 15.00 - 0.25u

[MatI]

I already have the Carlton ML, and adding the following.. Last years games finished at 176 & 177 but I expect this to be a slightly more attacking game than what we saw last year. Collingwood have also been less efficient in their defence this year which should help push this over.

AFL, CARLTON vs COLLINGWOOD, Over 188.5 @ 1.90 - 1u

[zeusky]

Do you think a ML parlay with Carlton and Richmond is a bad idea?...lol. TIA.

[Optional]

F1, Chinese GP - Pole Position
ROSBERG @ 15.00 - 0.25u
SCHUMACHER @ 15.00 - 0.25u

That's looking sweet after practice 2! Those odds have halved.

I just spent $1 on Kobayashi @ 260/1 for pole. Figured he is best placed longshot to take advantage of a Hamilton error or rain, maybe a real 2%, or 50/1, chance I think.

[MatI]

Do you think a ML parlay with Carlton and Richmond is a bad idea?...lol. TIA.

Richmond is about as good as a lock as you will get. Carlton is not so much, but i am pretty confident in them taking the win tonight.

That's looking sweet after practice 2! Those odds have halved.

I just spent $1 on Kobayashi @ 260/1 for pole. Figured he is best placed longshot to take advantage of a Hamilton error or rain, maybe a real 2%, or 50/1, chance I think.

Yeah, good result for Merc in P3, but they did the same in P2 in Melb and then didn't quite have the pace come Qual but I think this track is their best chance at pole for the season. Fingers crossed! Certainly no big deal taking Koba for a $1, good value, but i'd eat my shorts if they got pole. Sauber are much better in race pace.

[MatI]

MLB, ARIZONA D'backs (I Kennedy) @ SD Padres (A Bass)
ARIZONA D'backs ML @ 1.74 - risking 1u - WIN

AFL, CARLTON vs COLLINGWOOD
CARLTON ML @ 1.82 - 1.5u - WIN
Over 188.5 @ 1.90 - 1u - LOSS

I'm a little frustrated with the days result as that should have been 3-0, but missed out on the over by 5 pts. The pace slowed down massively in the 2nd half with Carlton having such a large lead and a few posters didn't help either.

Thread Total YTD-
65-67-8
-9.83 units

[Puda]

CM v Perth.

Tips.?

[MatI]

Too hard to pick a winner, I like the over though!

MLB, SAN DIEGO(Richard,C) @ LA DODGERS(Harang,A)
5th Innings Line - SAN DIEGO @ 2.07 - 1u

[Puda]

For a bit of fun im taking CCM to win in overtime. @ $9.00

and ML

should cover

[MatI]

Your not concerned about Glory's form? I do lean to CCM taking this one, just not keen on pulling the trigger against Glory, they have been going nuts lately.