Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

Putting in some plays now, before the odds drop.

A-League, ADELAIDE UTD vs MELBOURNE HEART
MELBOURNE HEART 0.0 @ 2.00 - 1.5u

This is almost a dead rubber game, being the final round of the season, but there are some key factors which make me like Heart in this spot. Adelaide have no chance of any finals berth, and as can be seen from their recent results in the AFC games, that is their sole focus at the moment. Adelaide will most likely rest some senior players who played midweek and will already be working towards the next round of AFC games. Heart have nothing to game or lose from this game. A win will secure them a 1st round final against Perth. A loss will possibly set them up for a game in Wellington. Neither is an exciting proposition so I don't see Heart dropping this game deliberately to set up a game in Wellington, that wouldnt be exciting for any team. The Heart coach has also made it clear that he is putting a fully fit and strong squad on the pitch and whats a finals attitude now, he wants all cylinders to be firing by the time finals come around next week.

This isn't even going into the fact that I consider Melb Heart a much stronger side than Adelaide and should easily account for them. I have gone for the Heart DNB though because they seem to be scrapping out a few draws lately, and it is always good to have that extra insurance, especially at even money.

[MatI]

F1 Malayasian Grand Prix - Race H2H, ROSBERG, Nico @ 1.86 over Schumacher - 1u

IndyCar GP of St Petersburg - Will Power to WIN @ 3.25 - 0.5u

It's still too early to predict race results this early in the season. But I like the above, Rosberg has consistently been faster than Schuey since he came out of retirement and i saw nothing in Melbourne to convince me otherwise. Likewise Will Power was by far the man on road circuits the last two years and while IndyCar is using a new chassis this year and all drivers are going into an unknown of sorts, if anyone will be able to get the speed out of it from round 1, it will be Will.

[showtiime]

Nice to see some formula 1 plays, I'll be tailing you on nico.

[MatI]

Parlay-
NBA, Indiana Pacers ML/Pitt Penguins ML @ 2.10 - 1u


edit - I'm calling this game over for Pacers after the 1st. They havent shown up.

edit - well, Pacers actually got up and one by 2 after being down by 20 @ HT. I took Pacers +10.5 when they were down by 22 so turned into a productive day already.

[MatI]

Malaysian Grand Prix, Fastest in Practice 1 - HAMILTON, Lewis @ 4.25 - 0.4u

Starts in 5mins. Only playing this because parlay came up a winner. Lewis will be still smarting from being out-done in Melbourne. I'm expecting him to come out fast out of the blocks for FP1.

[MatI]

Lewis fastest in FP1 by half a second! He was looking really strong, and I can't see anything other than a McLaren on Pole Position if it stays dry. The race could be a different story as everyone seemed to be struggling with tyre wear.

Malayasian Grand Prix, Pole Position - LEWIS HAMILTON @ 3.00 - 1u

[MatI]

Putting in some plays now, before the odds drop.

A-League, ADELAIDE UTD vs MELBOURNE HEART
MELBOURNE HEART 0.0 @ 2.00 - 1.5u

This is almost a dead rubber game, being the final round of the season, but there are some key factors which make me like Heart in this spot. Adelaide have no chance of any finals berth, and as can be seen from their recent results in the AFC games, that is their sole focus at the moment. Adelaide will most likely rest some senior players who played midweek and will already be working towards the next round of AFC games. Heart have nothing to game or lose from this game. A win will secure them a 1st round final against Perth. A loss will possibly set them up for a game in Wellington. Neither is an exciting proposition so I don't see Heart dropping this game deliberately to set up a game in Wellington, that wouldnt be exciting for any team. The Heart coach has also made it clear that he is putting a fully fit and strong squad on the pitch and whats a finals attitude now, he wants all cylinders to be firing by the time finals come around next week.

This isn't even going into the fact that I consider Melb Heart a much stronger side than Adelaide and should easily account for them. I have gone for the Heart DNB though because they seem to be scrapping out a few draws lately, and it is always good to have that extra insurance, especially at even money.

Confirmed that Adelaide are resting a few players in prep for upcoming AFC game, and Heart with full strength squad. Some rain in the area, but it shouldnt be too bad and I don't think it will effect the game too much.

[ultrasouth]

Lets get this mat1

[MatI]

Lets get this mat1

hoping so mate. Good to see your on it as well, GL.

[Punter101]

down 1-0. nothing over productive from either side. live bet?

[MatI]

well, Heart dominated most of it. If not for the weak penalty, they would not have been close to scoring. I'm still sussing it out but I expect Heart to come back with atleast the draw.

[MatI]

i'm going to hold off because its been a good day for me either way, but I like Heart to win 2nd half @ 2.37. Personally, i'll be more than happy if Heart get a goal back to draw it and I'll take the push.

[ultrasouth]

Cant remember last time i won on the a-league

[MatI]

yeah, its been a crazy last half off the season. Atleast they got one back, your on the DNB as well arent you?

[Optional]

dumbass me took ml

[MatI]

dumbass me took ml

Tough luck with that one. You can always rely on A-League to screw you. I still don't understand why Adelaide were awarded a penalty. Why do they bring in a first time ref in the last round of the year I will have no idea.

[MatI]

Parlay-
NBA, Indiana Pacers ML/Pitt Penguins ML @ 2.10 - 1u - WIN

Malaysian Grand Prix, Fastest in Practice 1 - HAMILTON, Lewis @ 4.25 - 0.4u - WIN

A-League, ADELAIDE UTD vs MELBOURNE HEART
MELBOURNE HEART 0.0 @ 2.00 - 1.5u - PUSH

2-0-1 on the day. Heart really should have got up though...

Thread Total YTD-
42-41-5
-8.22 units

[ultrasouth]

yeah, its been a crazy last half off the season. Atleast they got one back, your on the DNB as well arent you?

Na ML was just small action bet no harm done.PS: fuk the a-league lol

[MatI]

Na ML was just small action bet no harm done.PS: fuk the a-league lol

always safer to take the double option if you get decent odds! It's still possible to get shafted though!


Parlay for today-
F1 Malaysia Qual H2H, Rosberg over Schumacher/A-League, Perth Glory vs Melb Victory, Over 2.0 @ 2.06 - 1.5u

Rosberg just got fastest time in free practice 3 and he has never been outqualified by his team-mate in Malaysia throughout his career. Hopefully that continues today. The only possible spanner in the works is a chance of thunderstorms during Qual.

I really like Victory to win the A-League game, but I can see this being a pretty high scoring game. The last 10 games between these two at Perth have gone over 2.5 and with Perth's injury issues I can see MV scoring atleast 2 on their own. The two games this year went 4-1 & 2-2 and I feel confident taking the over2.0 in combo with Nico paying at just over even money.

[MatI]

Rosberg makes a mistake in Q, and only gets 8th position, Schuey takes 3rd.

Malayasian Grand Prix, Pole Position - LEWIS HAMILTON @ 3.00 - 1u - WIN

F1 Malaysia Qual H2H, Rosberg over Schumacher/A-League, Perth Glory vs Melb Victory, Over 2.0 @ 2.06 - 1.5u - LOSS

Thread Total YTD-
43-42-5
-7.72 units

It was a bad move taking Rosberg for Q. He will have his work cut out for him too to beat Schumacher now in the race. Still got a slight profit from Lewis taking pole, but I should have just left it at that and possibly taken the over in the Perth/Melbourne game starting in an hour.

Pending bets-
F1 Malayasian Grand Prix - Race H2H, ROSBERG, Nico @ 1.86 over Schumacher - 1u
IndyCar GP of St Petersburg - Will Power to WIN @ 3.25 - 0.5u

[Optional]

Hamilton looked great and brimming with confidence.

If it's dry I'm going for Button again though. Just on his tyre saving ability.

[MatI]

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory, Over 2.5 @ 1.80 -1u

Fuk it, rolling with the over 2.5 for the same reason detailed earlier.

[MatI]

If it's dry I'm going for Button again though. Just on his tyre saving ability.

[Optional]

What do you think about Schumacher to take the lead into the first corner tomorrow Matty?

He has made brilliant starts more often than not last season, and again in Melbourme.

[MatI]

Schuey to take the lead will be about $6 or $7. Considering the start they got in Melbourne, it is a great option. I will be putting a small amount on it at some stage, im just waiting on final weather forecast, but I highly doubt the race will be starting wet/under Safety Car.

I also like Webber or Vettel for podium result, they are hugely fast in race trim. But I might chicken out of that with the possibility of rain. To be honest, i don't think it will be effected by rain, but there is always the possibility around Sepang.

[Sol]

On the over as well. I have had my feelings hurt by the a-league of late, hoping for a bit of luck tonight! GL with your plays.

[Punter101]

1-1 26 minutes passed. this looking like a goal frenzy

[MatI]

On the over as well. I have had my feelings hurt by the a-league of late, hoping for a bit of luck tonight! GL with your plays.

1-1 26 minutes passed. this looking like a goal frenzy

Cash it boys.

[Punter101]

Cash it boys.

thought the match was drying up abit towards the end of the half. BOL with the good form.
now next tip

[MatI]

OK, time for EPL!

EPL, Chelsea v Tottenham, Over 2.5 @ 1.80 - risking 1u

This could be one of those tight battles that end in a low score, but im expecting a similar type of match to what we saw with Chealsea & ManCity during the week. This is a very important match for both teams and neither will accept a loss here. Both teams have a lot of strike power, and i am expecting another game with 3 goals. Hopefully they come early.

[Punter101]

OK, time for EPL!

EPL, Chelsea v Tottenham, Over 2.5 @ 1.80 - risking 1u

This could be one of those tight battles that end in a low score, but im expecting a similar type of match to what we saw with Chealsea & ManCity during the week. This is a very important match for both teams and neither will accept a loss here. Both teams have a lot of strike power, and i am expecting another game with 3 goals. Hopefully they come early.

hmmmm didn't follow ya on man city over chelsea and arsenal over everton as i didn't get in on time. BOL. gonna have any tips for the rest of the night?

[MatI]

Yep, i'll most likely be playing a couple of the other games. Just going through the rest of the card now while i watch this Chelsea match.

[MatI]

sorry, bad pick with the Chelsea game. I doubt this one is going over.

Parlay- EPL, Arsenal to WIN/Bundesliga, Mainz to WIN 2.15 - 1u

This is purely a play on the form of these teams. Arsenal are on fire and are the most in-form team in the EPL at the moment. Arsenal have only dropped points in 3 of their last 10 games and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 at home. Arsenal have no major injury concerns as well. Villa got a win last time out and have had some success, but have consistently lost against top of the table teams. This one shouldn't be any different, especially with Arsenal pushing to hold onto 3rd place on the League table.

I am parlaying with a in for Mainz but this is more a play against Hertha who are having a nightmare run. They have 9 losses out of their last 10 games and a win here for Mainz will keep them in touch with the top half of the table. Mainz are not the most solid team in the league but this is one they will be hoping to take 3 points from.

[Living The Dream]

Wow... Kinda a miss here, I had a draw as my bet until I read the experts thread dammit

[MatI]

Wow... Kinda a miss here, I had a draw as my bet until I read the experts thread dammit

I can't remember a soccer result ever being guaranteed.


LIVE BET - EPL, Chelsea v Tottenham, Over 0.5 @ 2.10 - 1u