Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

MatI · 03-14-12, 08:23 PM

CCL, L.A Galaxy v Toronto FC
Toronto FC +1.0 @ 2.05 - 2u

The line is way out of whack here IMO. There is no way LA should be such big favourites, even if playing at home. This will be LA's third game in 8 days. LA had nine players play 90 minutes against both Toronto and Real Salt Lake in their previous 2 games, and you could definitely see the effects in their opening MLS game on the weekend as they went down 3-1. This is going to mean changes to the squad and some quality players are going to have to be rested. Toronto FC arrived in Cali on Sunday and should be a step ahead of the Galaxy from a physical standpoint. A a draw of 0-0 or 1-1 will do LA just fine to move ahead to the next round, so even if TFC are disappointing, I see worst case scenario being a goal loss and a push on the play, but I do think Toronto can be strong enough in this spot to win the game outright.

vangend · 03-15-12, 10:40 AM

Good call. I missed this one.

MatI · 03-15-12, 05:35 PM

Thanks van, it was good to see a game pan out how i thought it would for a change.

F1 season kicks off today, and this is the sport i am most confident in, it has been my biggest money maker for the last 2 years. It is early days but I have a few plays I really like. Not sure if people are interested in motorsport on here, if people don't want these on here, let me know.

Australian Grand Prix - Race Head 2 Heads
ROSBERG, Nico (Mercedes AMG) @ 1.75 over Schumacher - 1u
KOVALAINEN, Heikki (Caterham) @ 2.00 over Petrov - 1u
BUTTON, Jenson (McLaren) @ 1.76 over Alonso - 0.5u
HAMILTON, Lewis (McLaren) @ 1.75 over Alonso - 0.5u

The race will not be until Sunday, but im getting these in now before they lose anymore value. Lines might actually move in my favour depending on performance in qual, if they do i will be upping units played unless i see something i don't like during the practice sessions. I havent got much time for a writeup, im heading to the track in a few, but these plays are based on testing form and how these drivers match up against each other previously. I know the form of these guys pretty well, but being the first race with new car, anything is possible.

MatI · 03-15-12, 05:53 PM

One play for today, only for a small amount.

Australian Grand Prix - Fastest in Free Practice 1
ROSBERG, Nico (Mercedes AMG) @ 15.00 - risking 0.3u

It is has been raining heavily here in Melbourne all night and there is still patches of rain about coming into FP1. A little but of a coin flip who will be fastest straight out of the box, but I think these conditions favour Nico, and love the odds. Talk is their car is fast, with a trick rear wing, and they may have stolen a march on their rivals on that front. With dodgy weather conditions to start the weekend, guys in the Red Bulls & McLaren's may take it slightly easier, and hold out for outright times until better conditions arrive in the second session.

Go Nico!!

MatI · 03-16-12, 08:30 PM

Australian Grand Prix - Qualifying H2H - Heikki Kovalainen v Vitaly Petrov
Heikki Kovalainen @ 1.85 - 2u

teeder · 03-17-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by MatI

CCL, L.A Galaxy v Toronto FC
Toronto FC +1.0 @ 2.05 - 2u

The line is way out of whack here IMO. There is no way LA should be such big favourites, even if playing at home. This will be LA's third game in 8 days. LA had nine players play 90 minutes against both Toronto and Real Salt Lake in their previous 2 games, and you could definitely see the effects in their opening MLS game on the weekend as they went down 3-1. This is going to mean changes to the squad and some quality players are going to have to be rested. Toronto FC arrived in Cali on Sunday and should be a step ahead of the Galaxy from a physical standpoint. A a draw of 0-0 or 1-1 will do LA just fine to move ahead to the next round, so even if TFC are disappointing, I see worst case scenario being a goal loss and a push on the play, but I do think Toronto can be strong enough in this spot to win the game outright.

Brilliant call - and yes LA was overvalued.

Optional · 03-17-12, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by MatI

Thanks van, it was good to see a game pan out how i thought it would for a change.

F1 season kicks off today, and this is the sport i am most confident in, it has been my biggest money maker for the last 2 years. It is early days but I have a few plays I really like. Not sure if people are interested in motorsport on here, if people don't want these on here, let me know.

Australian Grand Prix - Race Head 2 Heads
ROSBERG, Nico (Mercedes AMG) @ 1.75 over Schumacher - 1u
KOVALAINEN, Heikki (Caterham) @ 2.00 over Petrov - 1u
BUTTON, Jenson (McLaren) @ 1.76 over Alonso - 0.5u
HAMILTON, Lewis (McLaren) @ 1.75 over Alonso - 0.5u

The race will not be until Sunday, but im getting these in now before they lose anymore value. Lines might actually move in my favour depending on performance in qual, if they do i will be upping units played unless i see something i don't like during the practice sessions. I havent got much time for a writeup, im heading to the track in a few, but these plays are based on testing form and how these drivers match up against each other previously. I know the form of these guys pretty well, but being the first race with new car, anything is possible.

Lookin good! Those McLaren over Alonso odds will be $1.10 when they re-open. 60 cent odd profit before a wheel is turned if you like.

Can you believe the Red Bulls were left in the dust?! I guess they did look kinda loose at times yesterday, but I thought they had it in hand in the dry.

Puda · 03-17-12, 03:37 AM

win for victory last night... huge overhaul with players... sad to see Zoro leave.. best ever player to don the victory shirt. fark.

.... fine to get rid of dead wood, but not Zoro, and im dissapoint with victory most likely to resign the coach, looks like he'll have a chance to build a squad... miron, would of been perfect.....

MatI · 03-17-12, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by teeder

Brilliant call - and yes LA was overvalued.

Thanks, i've been off the boil lately so it's good to see a game actually play out how you expect.

MatI · 03-17-12, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by Optional

Lookin good! Those McLaren over Alonso odds will be $1.10 when they re-open. 60 cent odd profit before a wheel is turned if you like.

Can you believe the Red Bulls were left in the dust?! I guess they did look kinda loose at times yesterday, but I thought they had it in hand in the dry.

Looking ok.

I really thought Ferrari would be disappointing, but nowhere near as much as they actually were! I need Rosberg to have a good race and I'll be happier, but i'm content with my selections so far. I only got back from the circuit a short while ago, but i'll post if i see anything else i like. There will be a big over reaction on odds from the qual results, but there might be some value in some areas.

It's going to be a profitable f1 season!

Nice to catch up with you in Melb mate, hope you had a good drive home.

MatI · 03-17-12, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by Puda

win for victory last night... huge overhaul with players... sad to see Zoro leave.. best ever player to don the victory shirt. fark.

.... fine to get rid of dead wood, but not Zoro, and im dissapoint with victory most likely to resign the coach, looks like he'll have a chance to build a squad... miron, would of been perfect.....

I'm still in denial over Carlos going.

But I heard that Davies had a strong game and looks like a bit of a gun.

re. Carlos, i was introduced to one of the marketing staff from MV at the grand prix track today and after a little alcoholic lubrication, she was telling me that it was Carlos who had had enough and wanted out. It seems they wouldn't be against keeping him on, but he is keen to move on.

MatI · 03-17-12, 06:56 PM

adding:
Australian Grand Prix - Winner
Lewis Hamilton @ 2.10 - 1u

Just crazy to be getting Lewis at more than even money after qual. He has looked pretty sharp all weekend and the McLaren will be the car to beat at Albert Park today. Button will be the man to watch, as he has been better than Lewis at looking after his tyres during the races in the last 12 months, but I think with another off season under his belt, Hamilton will have got through most of those problems. As long as he doesnt make any silly mistakes, he can win this one comfortably today.

Optional · 03-18-12, 05:48 AM

4 out of 4 from the head to heads Matt.

MatI · 03-19-12, 03:29 AM

Thanks Opti. So good to have F1 back!

MatI · 03-19-12, 03:34 AM

Originally posted by MatI

English Championship, Doncaster v Reading
Reading to WIN @ 1.95 - 1 unit - LOSS

Originally posted by MatI

CCL, L.A Galaxy v Toronto FC
Toronto FC +1.0 @ 2.05 - 2u - WIN

Originally posted by MatI

Australian Grand Prix - Fastest in Free Practice 1
ROSBERG, Nico (Mercedes AMG) @ 15.00 - risking 0.3u - LOSS

Originally posted by MatI

Australian Grand Prix - Qualifying H2H - Heikki Kovalainen v Vitaly Petrov
Heikki Kovalainen @ 1.85 - 2u - WIN

Originally posted by MatI

Australian Grand Prix - Race Head 2 Heads
ROSBERG, Nico (Mercedes AMG) @ 1.75 over Schumacher - 1u - WIN
KOVALAINEN, Heikki (Caterham) @ 2.00 over Petrov - 1u - WIN
BUTTON, Jenson (McLaren) @ 1.76 over Alonso - 0.5u - WIN
HAMILTON, Lewis (McLaren) @ 1.75 over Alonso - 0.5u - WIN

Originally posted by MatI

Australian Grand Prix - Winner
Lewis Hamilton @ 2.10 - 1u - LOSS

6-3 the last few days.

Thread Total YTD-
33-37-2
-12.48 units

MatI · 03-20-12, 01:34 AM

AFC, Pohang Steelers v Bunyodkor
Pohang -1 @ 1.72 - risking 1u

Pahong are very experienced in AFC champions league and are the team to beat this year. They crushed Gamba Osaka 0-3 away from home and with Bunyodkor struggling to compete Adelaide United, should not be much for a threat for Pahong. A win here for Pahong will set them up very well for progression into the next round. I see a score of 3-0 or even 4-0. I also lean to the over in this game.

I am also hoping to play both teams to score in Adelaide United/Gamba match, but I havent seen the odds up anywhere yet, I will probably have to wait for live betting for this option.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by MatI

AFC, Pohang Steelers v Bunyodkor
Pohang -1 @ 1.72 - risking 1u

Pahong are very experienced in AFC champions league and are the team to beat this year. They crushed Gamba Osaka 0-3 away from home and with Bunyodkor struggling to compete Adelaide United, should not be much for a threat for Pahong. A win here for Pahong will set them up very well for progression into the next round. I see a score of 3-0 or even 4-0. I also lean to the over in this game.

I am also hoping to play both teams to score in Adelaide United/Gamba match, but I havent seen the odds up anywhere yet, I will probably have to wait for live betting for this option.

I am also eating the juice of Pohang -1. I just do not see how they do not win by atleast 2 goals as well. Good luck to us.

MatI · 03-20-12, 02:01 AM

BOL to you as well sportsguy. I was even contemplating just loading up on the Pohang ML just in case, but I just can't see Bunyodkar being able to hang on in this game. Worst case scenario should be a push.

That was an interesting game between Tokyo & Ulsan, I was leaning Ulsan AH but couldnt pull the trigger. Glad I didn't in a way, because it was a nail-biter to the end.

Sol · 03-20-12, 02:03 AM

Well done on the F1. I had Button/Hamilton dual forecast

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by MatI

BOL to you as well sportsguy. I was even contemplating just loading up on the Pohang ML just in case, but I just can't see Bunyodkar being able to hang on in this game. Worst case scenario should be a push.

That was an interesting game between Tokyo & Ulsan, I was leaning Ulsan AH but couldnt pull the trigger. Glad I didn't in a way, because it was a nail-biter to the end.

Yes agreed. ML is steep, mise well just play -1 for cheaper price. Should be a 2 goal win but its soccer, never know.

Im on a Japan league d2 game for the over 2.5.

20'

Shonan Bellmare

1 - 0

FC Gifu

Need 2 more goals to hit big, then Ill double down on Pohang.

MatI · 03-20-12, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Yes agreed. ML is steep, mise well just play -1 for cheaper price. Should be a 2 goal win but its soccer, never know.
Im on a Japan league d2 game for the over 2.5.

20'

Shonan Bellmare

1 - 0

FC Gifu

Need 2 more goals to hit big, then Ill double down on Pohang.

Still no more goals, 30mins is an eternity in soccer though, plenty of time.

Originally posted by Sol

Well done on the F1. I had Button/Hamilton dual forecast

Man, tough break, Safety Car screwed Hammy there, it would have been interesting to see if he could have held SV off for the remainder of the race. Lewis' post race comments seemed to suggest not..

Red Bull's race pace was really strong throughout. If they can qual closer to the McLaren's in KL it could be a very interesting race between the two. I want to check speed traps from Melbourne, but I think McLaren's look strong for pole once more. I was leaning pole for Mercedes but i was really surprised how much they dropped off in the last Q session.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 03:27 AM

[QUOTE=MatI;14183989]Still no more goals, 30mins is an eternity in soccer though, plenty of time.

QUOTE]

cant believe only 1 goal with 20 min left

MatI · 03-20-12, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

cant believe only 1 goal with 20 min left

Only need 1 more now! I'm rooting for ya!

I was going to play both teams to score in Adelaide/Gamba game, odds have come out @ 1.60 though. I will lay off, but will be watching the game, may make a live bet if i see value.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 03:42 AM

2-0 final. fml lol. they scored like 78th minute too late

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 03:53 AM

Fuk yeahhh!!!!!!! 2-1!!!!!!

MatI · 03-20-12, 03:53 AM

2-1. You got to love late goals when you have the over. I told you 30mins is an eternity.

Well done.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 03:55 AM

You know how many times I had the under 2.5, and it was a 1-0 game and ends up being 2 goals in the last 8 minutes. lol.

I just took the Osaka adalaide over 2.5 with these winnings.

MatI · 03-20-12, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

I just took the Osaka adalaide over 2.5 with these winnings.

Too much juice I think but GL.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by MatI

Too much juice I think but GL.

Two shit teams, usually more goals or less?

MatI · 03-20-12, 04:02 AM

IMO, hard to say in this case. Gamba have a leaky defence at the moment, but I don't trust Adelaide to score in this spot. Still, Over is the more likely, i just think it's a flip of the coin. I'm watching, hopefully its a good game.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by MatI

IMO, hard to say in this case. Gamba have a leaky defence at the moment, but I don't trust Adelaide to score in this spot. Still, Over is the more likely, i just think it's a flip of the coin. I'm watching, hopefully its a good game.

You watching this on tv or online? Or just checking the score updates? Where are you located in the world

MatI · 03-20-12, 04:07 AM

I am in Melbourne, Australia. Watching it on TV. Where are you?

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 04:08 AM

Originally posted by MatI

I am in Melbourne, Australia. Watching it on TV. Where are you?

Ah lucky you. Live in the states. East coast.

MatI · 03-20-12, 04:10 AM

woah, your up early!

American? And you follow asian football leagues? rare bread.

sportsguy04 · 03-20-12, 04:12 AM

I work night shifts, so I usually dont go to bed till about 8am, then sleep all day. So asian leagues work perfect since they happen when Im awake.