Introducing TOTALCON - My MLB Total Calculator

MonkeyF0cker · 07-17-12, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Why did you erase the program icon from the top left corner of the window?

Lakey · 07-17-12, 11:33 PM

Have you backtested this at all or just testing as you go?

frogsrangers · 07-17-12, 11:44 PM

Testing as I go and will post all plays in this thread but exercise caution when tailing since its still in its infancy

Lakey · 07-17-12, 11:47 PM

Thanks mate, BOL.

dj_destroyer · 07-18-12, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Why did you erase the program icon from the top left corner of the window?

This.

jbart28 · 07-18-12, 01:42 AM

Interesting- Are you using any manual data like if hitters are hot or cold over the last 7 days? And if they are nicked up etc..

BOL

The Kraken · 07-18-12, 02:03 AM

Why such basic stats? Not dogging, just curious how you chose those stats to include. Advanced stats are easy to get. I assume youre not scraping data and building db's. I commend you for atrempting this but I hope you, nor anyone, is actually betting money on the results. This calc. will be as accurate as a broken scale. Youll see normal variance on wins and losses.

Also why erase the icon?

ColdBeerHere · 07-18-12, 03:21 AM

GL man ...looks like my capping system kinda but i do sides....my problem is i have to manually look up then write out all the stats and then compute them myself.....takes a long time....lately i haven't been doing it....

BOL

ColdBeerHere · 07-18-12, 03:22 AM

Are these the first games your capper spit out ? Or is this just the first time posting results of your system ?

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 10:13 AM

First games it spit out

I would like as many stats that my scraper can scrape as possible, which is why I have gone for the simpler stats(easier to get automatically). I don't have time to get all these stats manually.

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 01:12 PM

Today's Numbers:

5.840 BAL/MIN
3.443 PIT/COL
2.994 SEA/KC
2.490 NYM/WAS
2.130 LAA/DET (8.5 total)
1.630 LAA/DET (9 total)
-0.102 SF/ATL
-0.109 MIA/CHC
-1.596 TOR/NYY
-1.935 STL/MIL (8.5 total)
-2.016 ARI/CIN
-2.096 TOR/NYY
-2.435 STL/MIL (9 total)
-2.635 CHW/BOS
-3.307 LAD/PHI
-3.350 CLE/TB
-6.538 TEX/OAK
-6.871 HOU/SD

I changed the way the factor is shown. Instead of a number from 0 going up, I decided to make 0 the baseline, meaning a factor of 0 is a 50/50 coin flip of going over or under. Any number ABOVE 0 means the total is more likely to go over, and any number BELOW 0 means the total is more likely to go under. I also added weighting (some stats are worth more than others) and deviation to the calculation method. (deviation i.e. a team batting .500 against lefties will increase the factor more than a team batting .400 against lefties, but both will increase the factor)

Today's Plays:

BAL/MIN Over 9
TEX/OAK Under 7.5
STL/MIL Under 9

Not playing HOU/SD Under, because the umpire in that game has gone over 17 out of his 18 games. Even with that in mind, my calculator still liked that under there, but I am not going to go against that trend.

rumnblack · 07-18-12, 01:15 PM

G/L

ColdBeerHere · 07-18-12, 01:41 PM

GL Frogger !

Extra Innings · 07-18-12, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Why did you erase the program icon from the top left corner of the window?

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by Extra Innings

Dont want people to know what language I programmed it in yet

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 04:08 PM

STL/MIL under cashes after a rough start, but because the Brewers bullpen and closers are garbage it was really close in the end

TEX/OAK under looking good too

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 05:39 PM

TEX/OAK under cashes, 2-0 today so far, 4-2 overall

EVPlus · 07-18-12, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Not playing HOU/SD Under, because the umpire in that game has gone over 17 out of his 18 games. Even with that in mind, my calculator still liked that under there, but I am not going to go against that trend.

And this is WHY I continue to visit your thread (and a handful of other talented cappers on this board). You know it's not just about stats, it's not just about trends, it's not just about weather, it's not just about injuries, it's not just about line movements. It's about determining which is more important and what isn't for EACH situation.

BOL tonight. With a 2-1 day, I'm bowing the fukk out for the night.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-18-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Dont want people to know what language I programmed it in yet

Uh. No.

First of all, you can change the icon in ANY language. But you would know that already. Right?

Second, you couldn't tell what language the app was written in by the icon even if it were the standard MSVS icon. It's the same for every language in VS.

Third, why the fukk would it matter to anyone here what language it was coded in?

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

And this is WHY I continue to visit your thread (and a handful of other talented cappers on this board). You know it's not just about stats, it's not just about trends, it's not just about weather, it's not just about injuries, it's not just about line movements. It's about determining which is more important and what isn't for EACH situation.

BOL tonight. With a 2-1 day, I'm bowing the fukk out for the night.

Pretty much

Calculators like mine should only be used as a guideline, not as the sole deciding factor

I treat my WNBA calculator the same way

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Uh. No.

First of all, you can change the icon in ANY language. But you would know that already. Right?

Second, you couldn't tell what language the app was written in by the icon even if it were the standard MSVS icon. It's the same for every language in VS.

Third, why the fukk would it matter to anyone here what language it was coded in?

It's not a standard coding language... not C++, Python, etc., but its an offshoot of a different type of program not meant for programming.

I am keeping it secret because I plan on adding some interactivity functionality to it so anybody can come in and use it remotely. When that day comes I will take the cover off of it.

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-18-12, 05:57 PM

So Houston/SD was the most likely game to go under and it flew over?

MonkeyF0cker · 07-18-12, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

It's not a standard coding language... not C++, Python, etc., but its an offshoot of a different type of program not meant for programming.

I am keeping it secret because I plan on adding some interactivity functionality to it so anybody can come in and use it remotely. When that day comes I will take the cover off of it.

LMAO. So you're telling me that you wrote your own language for an EXTREMELY BASIC app (which was clearly written in either VB or C# anyway)?

You didn't code this, guy. You have no fukkin idea what you're talking about.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-18-12, 06:06 PM

If you want, I can pick your post apart some more. Or you could just admit that you're a fraud.

Your choice.

Extra Innings · 07-18-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

LMAO. So you're telling me that you wrote your own language for an EXTREMELY BASIC app (which was clearly written in either VB or C# anyway)?

You didn't code this, guy. You have no fukkin idea what you're talking about.

Attached Files

merikson · 07-18-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

If you want, I can pick your post apart some more. Or you could just admit that you're a fraud.

Your choice.

Wow, you're really angry.

Inspirited · 07-18-12, 06:20 PM

i like this idea

MonkeyF0cker · 07-18-12, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by merikson

Wow, you're really angry.

By all means, feel free to follow this guy to the poorhouse. He's trying to steal someone's intellectual property, pass it off as his own, and profit from it. You're right. Scum like that should be appreciated. No reason to call him out.

Carry on.

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 07:20 PM

Alright, guess I have no choice

I scripted the thing in a IRC chat program called MIRC because part of the future plans for this and the WNBA calculator I use is for people to be able to come use it as a bot. Therefore I picked MIRC because of its interactivity. I kept this from people because I don't want to rush it and put a timetable on it just so others can use it. I'd rather keep it under wraps and fine tune it until I am ready for people to use it.

frogsrangers · 07-18-12, 10:04 PM

fitguy67 · 07-18-12, 10:54 PM

good contribution FR...i'm very interested to see how this evolves over time (inclusion of advanced stats, backtesting, ways unforeseeable now...etc.)

frogsrangers · 07-19-12, 11:04 AM

Today's numbers.... really likes Seattle/KC over

9.870 SEA/KC (8.5 total)
8.870 SEA/KC (9 total)
4.768 SF/ATL
1.876 LAA/DET (9 total)
0.876 LAA/DET (9.5 total)
0.251 CHW/BOS
0.129 ARI/CIN
-0.970 BAL/MIN
-1.258 NYM/WAS
-1.631 CLE/TB (7 total)
-2.631 CLE/TB (7.5 total)
-4.491 HOU/SD
-4.555 NYY/OAK
-5.031 MIA/CHC

Today's plays:

SEA/KC O 9
LAA/DET O 9
SF/ATL O 7.5
HOU/SD U 6
NYY/OAK U 8
MIA/CHC U 7.5

ColdBeerHere · 07-19-12, 12:13 PM

GL Frogger

mathdotcom · 07-19-12, 01:49 PM

Looks like a dubious model but a nice interface

frogsrangers · 07-19-12, 11:41 PM

If you look closely.... 5-0 on unders, 0-4 on overs

Considering I originally made this calculator to find out which games have the best chance of going under, I'd say its been successful so far

I never intended it to find overs, I just figured that the least likely game to go under is the most likely to go over, but thats not the case. Different math and algorithims are needed to find overs, I think there are different aspects involved in a game going over than under.

So I would say I am pleased, and for the time being will only play unders this calculator gives me and perhaps make a seperate one to find good over opporitunities.