Introducing TOTALCON - My MLB Total Calculator

fitguy67 · 07-24-12, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Discretionary pick

I liked the weathrr and pitchers

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machine automates (by collecting and massaging numbers, then presenting output play-candidates according to pre-defined parameters)...but person has the final say as to what to do with that output...

machine in service of man...not the other way around...

-->when such a human veto "works" (ie. you sidestep a loser or "roll your own" winner)...it gives a nice feeling
-->when it doesn't (ie. you miss out on a winner or "roll your own" loser)...you feel like Murphy's law kicked you in the ass

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*on balance and over the long haul, i think it's +eV to give the human mind that developed the machine precedence over the "machine mind" it created
(AS LONG AS that human mind can discipline itself to consider ONLY the value aspects of each play on its own merit...and ignore any emotional compulsions such as the need for action, or toward "chasing" the results of previous plays<water under="" the="" bridge=""> so as to "get revenge" on the market...)

BUT UNFORTUNATELY...this is not at all easy to do...we really are our own worst enemy when we let our compulsive self over-rule our intellectual self)

*second best (and safest) approach is to decide to NEVER over-rule your own machine/system (in order to deprive our compulsive/tilt-prone self any opportunity to kick in)

*worst of all is to waffle back and forth in indecision

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you gotta know yourself...your "spidey sense" can be your long-haul +EV friend, as long as it confines itself to thinking about play-candidates as a purely-intellectual effort...

but allowing "personal considerations" (which affect how badly you "need" to win tonight, which colors judgement) ANY input whatever into your discretion-exercising protocol it may be much more than just -EV...if it becomes habitual, it is almost a guarantee of going on tilt...and we all know how that ends up for our bankroll
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FR, i get the feeling you've got this all sorted out...and can intelligently work occasional "freestyle" elements into your sysem...

but for those of us who continually find that discretion is a slippery slope leading to tilt-city ruin...i suggest we consider "protecting ourselves from our dumb-assed selves" by deciding to never over-rule the system we worked so hard to develop (cuz then we're SURE that it's "thinking" really is uncorrupted by our potentially-dangerous "needs")...

______________

note: even sports-bettors who don't use "systems" should have basic "rules" in place...most important among them, and easiest to break are those determining maximum bet-size...we've all crashed at one point or another when we break that one simple to understand (but so hard to follow) rule...when we let our dumbass impatient/undisciplined rationalize us into bending/breaking that rule...often by convincing ourselves that we are somehow (conveniently) much more "confident" in the next play that our dumbass self just "needs" to pound )

_______________

sorry for the lengthy "thinking out loud" session...I don't know if going off on this tangent helps anyone...but it sure helped clarify some fundamental "money management" (and even more important--"self management") issues for me...so thanks for the Q & A springboard...may make a good separate thread one day...but till then...never mind and carry on

</water>

MonkeyF0cker · 07-24-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by tb1984

He thinks I'm talking about him. Not even a chance. Don't be sensitive

Somebody can't read. (And I don't think I'm talking about me.)

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

So sensitive.

I believe Mathy was just offering a warning.

Brock Landers went on a great run in 2008 or so. Doesn't. Mean. Anything.

tb1984 · 07-24-12, 01:22 AM

Wow, doesn't he have to be this sensitive? I'm not really referring to him.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-24-12, 01:30 AM

To whom? Mathy?

Are you talking to an audience? Or just out loud to yourself?

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 10:38 AM

Today's numbers. Going to decide which plays to make here in a bit.

-5.656 NYY/SEA
-5.294 ATL/MIA
-4.447 TB/BAL
-4.252 MIN/CWS (9 total)
-3.252 MIN/CWS (8.5 total)
-3.163 DET/CLE
-3.105 CHC/PIT
-2.469 OAK/TOR
-1.792 MIL/PHI
0.400 WAS/NYM (7.5 total)
1.137 SD/SF
1.400 WAS/NYM (7 total)
2.127 CIN/HOU
2.188 KC/LAA
2.878 BOS/TEX
4.747 LAD/STL
5.043 COL/ARI

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 10:46 AM

Plays(HUGE card today):

NYY/SEA U 7
ATL/MIA U 7.5
TB/BAL U 8.5
MIN/CWS U 9
DET/CLE U 9
CHC/PIT U 7.5
OAK/TOR U 9.5
LAD/STL O 7

flyboy · 07-24-12, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

lol, called a mistake, (and was heavily influenced by drugs (LSD/alchohol+weed=sat.night) if you had any understanding of what I was actually saying and not so focused on a "lapse of memory" maybe you would contribute something beneficial to a thread. Ive never seen you contribute anything positive to any thread, so now you know why I think your a bitch. plus look at your pic. enough said.

Lol!!!!!!

mathdotcom · 07-24-12, 11:05 AM

Wow can you believe the Einstein wikipedia page does not mention the light bulb at all??

kramerthekid · 07-24-12, 11:57 AM

Whats the record here Frogs?

AceKingHigh · 07-24-12, 12:31 PM

I hope it works out well tonight

igrok · 07-24-12, 01:32 PM

thank you!

High3rEl3m3nt · 07-24-12, 01:38 PM

Frogs, I am wondering why you don't run your program and act faster on the overnight lines? Last night, you could have snatched up a half-run for your under bet on the Cubs Pirates and Braves Marlins.

Ghenghis Kahn · 07-24-12, 01:54 PM

thechaoz · 07-24-12, 02:32 PM

Nice job..keep it up

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Frogs, I am wondering why you don't run your program and act faster on the overnight lines? Last night, you could have snatched up a half-run for your under bet on the Cubs Pirates and Braves Marlins.

The stats dont update until early in the morning

Therefore I would have to research all stats manually which I do not want to do

The Kraken · 07-24-12, 08:11 PM

"Your system is like a broken scale, its bound to be right twice a day." - smut

Frogger youve been lucky. Fools gold my friend. You seem to not be a full blown retard, do you really believe youve figured out a winning system?

Just remember guy, even a broken scale is right twice a day

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 08:51 PM

Please tell me you all tailed today

I can't lose

joco · 07-24-12, 08:56 PM

its a broken clock is right twice a day...

betme · 07-24-12, 08:59 PM

I tailed every under for $100 each.. looking good thus far,

acl123 · 07-24-12, 09:00 PM

Updated record frogger?

ThaBigG · 07-24-12, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Please tell me you all tailed today

I can't lose

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 09:07 PM

Hope this A's pitcher doesn't ruin the perfect day

The Kraken · 07-24-12, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by joco

its a broken clock is right twice a day...

Its the same meaning Edison

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 09:10 PM

5-0 today so far

I CANT LOSE

betme · 07-24-12, 09:26 PM

there goes the over in LA/STL

frogsrangers · 07-24-12, 09:28 PM

Adam Dunn just ruined the perfect day

Oh well can't win them all

betme · 07-24-12, 09:30 PM

just hope for a push at 9

joco · 07-24-12, 10:08 PM

dont be an e thug/keyboard warrior, be respectful. in real life im probably a lot bigger than u r

Smutbucket · 07-24-12, 10:30 PM

although that is a quote I dont think it applies well to this thread. we are definately in the money again. although I didnt tail all of them, I liked the det/clev under a lot before the sysytem numbers because of the pitching matchup, and added 2 units to my bet after (got it at 8.5 but at even money) the system agreed.....

keep posting

The Kraken · 07-24-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by joco

dont be an e thug/keyboard warrior, be respectful. in real life im probably a lot bigger than u r

You probably are. And I'd probably kick your ass. Not being an e thug, just keeping it real homey.

Froggers knows good and well it isn't this easy. His abacus modeling is only going to lose other people money.

I hope everyone has tailed to this point and made a few bucks but my guess is that most haven't. Most guys usually linger around to see how it goes before limping in, just in time to regress to the mean.

May as well be flipping a coin.

Smutbucket · 07-24-12, 10:56 PM

no shit. he never claimed this system to be great, he said he would be happy to hit 55%, and is currently hitting 80%+, bueaty is we can see plain as day what he's basing the factors/stats on of system and they are working, but I think he just uses it as tool in handicapping in his capping and makes picks on his on own judgement based on a lot of factors including this tool,

shopbar picks · 07-24-12, 11:02 PM

nice cappin. congrats

betme · 07-25-12, 12:11 AM

we go 7-1 tonight. that is sick !

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 12:27 AM

The Kraken · 07-25-12, 12:35 AM

I've said my piece and see no need to keep banging on Froggs Abacus. However, Froggy will not hit 55% using this Calc. and anyone tailing will be tailing a coin flip. With that said, good luck.