Introducing TOTALCON - My MLB Total Calculator

[frogsrangers]

Well, this sucks

Going to have to do some research to see if I can make any adjustments

Might just be an aberration because every game except the Yankees game has gone over today

[TheCalculator]

Well, this sucks

Going to have to do some research to see if I can make any adjustments

Might just be an aberration because every game except the Yankees game has gone over today

Remember: ride the variance.

Your system will be validated once you have 5000 plays, not 200.

I think it's legit.

[frogsrangers]

System is 13-15-2, -4.25 units, picking unders since July 25.

Before that it was 19-2 picking unders.

Probably just is variance, but again 19-2 is a good run that probably won't be replicated. Again, every game tonight except BAL/NYY went over, so it was just a bad night for unders.

Going to do more research though. For example, going to try and find a relationship between 6.5 totals. Those totals give teams almost no room for error.

[frogsrangers]

Interesting. Plays that I have made with totals of 7, 7.5, 8, and 8.5 are 22-6-1, while all others are 10-11-1. Food for thought.

My theory is that 6.5 and under totals are too low and can easily go over based on one bad inning, but totals 9 and higher are that high for a reason. But the edge is found in between the 7-8 range because that range is the sweet spot.

Definately going to factor this in to future plays and calculations.

6.5 or lower (1-3, L3)
-------------------
L NYM/SF U 6.5
L TAM/OAK U 6.5
L KC/SEA U 6.5
W HOU/SD U 6




7 or 7.5 (10-4, L4)
-------------------
L ARI/LAD U 7.5
L SD/MIA U 7.5
L PIT/HOU U 7.5
L DET/CLE U 7.5
W KC/SEA U 7
W CHC/PIT U 7.5
W NYY/SEA U 7
W CHC/PIT U 7.5
W ATL/MIA U 7.5
W TEX/LAA U 7.5
W CHW/DET U 7.5
W NYY/OAK U 7.5
W MIA/CHC U 7.5
W TEX/OAK U 7.5




8 (6-0-1, W1)
-------------
W TAM/LAA U 8
P CIN/HOU U 8
W NYY/SEA U 8
W CHC/PIT U 8
W MIA/PIT U 8
W CHC/STL U 8
W NYY/OAK U 8




8.5 (6-2, L1)
--------------
L SD/CIN U 8.5
W OAK/BAL U 8.5
W PIT/HOU U 8.5
W PIT/HOU U 8.5
L MIL/PHI U 8.5
W DET/CLE U 8.5
W TAM/BAL U 8.5
W MIA/PIT U 8.5


9 (3-6-1, L1)
-------------
L BOS/NYY U 9
W SD/MIA U 9
L CHW/TEX U 9
P SD/MIA U 9
L TAM/BAL U 9
L OAK/TOR U 9
L CHW/MIN U 9
W BAL/CLE U 9
L BAL/CLE U 9
W STL/MIL U 9


9.5 (4-0, W4)
-------------
W BAL/NYY U 9.5
W BOS/NYY U 9.5
W BOS/TEX U 9.5
W OAK/TOR U 9.5




10+ (2-2, L1)
--------------
L LAA/TEX U 11
W TEX/CHW U 10
W CHW/TEX U 10
L BOS/NYY U 10

[frogsrangers]

Mindblower:

Plays I have made that have factors that are -4.7 or lower are 14-0 under when the posted total is 7, 7.5, 8, or 8.5

When the factor is higher than -4.7, we are 8-6-1 on posted totals of 7-8.5.

Definately going to keep this in mind.

[frogsrangers]

Just by looking at the overnight lines, here are games tomorrow that fall into the 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5 threshold:

MIA/ATL (8.5)
SD/CIN (8.5)
HOU/MIL (8.5)
ARI/LAD (7-7.5)
DET/BOS (8)
TAM/OAK (7)
TOR/SEA (7)

And might as well show the 9.5 and up games, since I am a perfect 4-0 on those and 6-1 when following my system to the T(the LAA/TEX play tonight was not based off my system but on a stat I read elsewhere):

BAL/NYY
LAA/TEX
CLE/KC
STL/COL

That's enough research for today. The main change being made for tomorrow is that I will no longer play anything that is a posted total of 6.5 or lower; or 9. Going to bed

[AceKingHigh]

That's some great kickass research you just did!
Can't wait to get todays number and see how it goes with the filters you found now

Good luck, keep us posted what's today's plays!

[EXhoosier10]

That's enough research for today. The main change being made for tomorrow is that I will no longer play anything that is a posted total of 6.5 or lower; or 9. Going to bed

with only a 9 game sample, being 3-6 for totals of 9 could easily be 4-5 by taking out one bad inning. I'd say at least keep tracking these plays for the ROY and see how it fares when you have more data

[frogsrangers]

with only a 9 game sample, being 3-6 for totals of 9 could easily be 4-5 by taking out one bad inning. I'd say at least keep tracking these plays for the ROY and see how it fares when you have more data

This is true, so for now I am thinking about staggering my plays. I.E. giving some plays 3 units, other plays 1 unit. That way I don't abandon the system with a small sample size but at the same time make bigger plays on the plays that are riding the hot streak right now.

At the same time I think 9 is a dangerous total. A 9 total usually means the oddsmakers just aren't sure about the game in general. The pitchers are either unknown or average, and/or the lineup is just good enough to be able to put up 9. Whereas 8 and 7 totals are given to good pitchers or pitcher friendly parks and lineups that are average. So the burden of putting up the total is all on the hitters.

[frogsrangers]

Today's numbers. 3 games with listed pitchers who are rumored of being traded, but none of those games will be plays today. The -11.427 in the Toronto/Seattle game is the lowest factor listed so far in the short history of this calculator.

-11.427 TOR/SEA
-3.223 BOS/DET
-1.710 ARI/LAD (7.5 total)
-1.679 BAL/NYY
-0.710 ARI/LAD (7 total)
-0.413 TAM/OAK (With Shields)
-0.322 PIT/CHC (With Dempster)
0.719 MIA/ATL
0.941 NYM/SF
1.168 HOU/MIL
1.417 PHI/WAS (With Lee)
1.621 STL/COL
1.918 SD/CIN
2.762 CLE/KC
2.850 LAA/TEX
7.752 CHW/MIN

[frogsrangers]

Plays:

TOR/SEA U 7 - 3* play (3* plays retroactively are 14-0 so far, UNDER 7 plays are 2-0)
BOS/DET U 8 - 2* play (2* plays retroactively are 22-6-1 so far, UNDER 8 plays are 6-0-1)
BAL/NYY U 9.5 - 1* play (All 4 UNDER 9.5 plays I have made have gone under)

As far as overs go, I really like the NYM/SF over 6.5 with the way Lincecum has been struggling and how Harvey is still a rookie. I think both teams will be able to plate 3 in this game. Grab this one before the line moves to 7. I am going to officially include this one in my sheet tonight. The only thing that worries me is that the umpire is 6-15 O/U, but I think that is made up for by the low 6.5 total.

NYM/SF O 6.5 - 1* play

[EXhoosier10]

This might be of some interest to you. Not sure myself how it could be used, but figured I'd share.

http://www.cleanuphitter.com/mlb/stats/mlb_common_scores.php

[EXhoosier10]

Plays:

TOR/SEA U 7 - 3* play (3* plays retroactively are 14-0 so far, UNDER 7 plays are 2-0)
BOS/DET U 8 - 2* play (2* plays retroactively are 22-6-1 so far, UNDER 8 plays are 6-0-1)
ARI/LAD U 7.5 - 2* play (Last 4 plays UNDER 7.5 I have made have gone over, beware)
BAL/NYY U 9.5 - 1* play (All 4 UNDER 9.5 plays I have made have gone under)

As far as overs go, I really like the NYM/SF over 6.5 with the way Lincecum has been struggling and how Harvey is still a rookie. I think both teams will be able to plate 3 in this game. Grab this one before the line moves to 7. I am going to officially include this one in my sheet tonight. The only thing that worries me is that the umpire is 6-15 O/U, but I think that is made up for by the low 6.5 total.

NYM/SF O 6.5 - 1* play

Also, it looks like you're making plays based on the most extreme calculated values each day. for example, you're playing a game with a -1.679 score today, but in post #67, you made the cutoff point -4.49. Any reason for that?

I would imagine that it makes more sense to bet all games with an absolute value greater than a certain threshold. So instead of playing games in the + or -1 area just because they are the '2nd best on a given day', why not ignore that game all together?

[frogsrangers]

Also, it looks like you're making plays based on the most extreme calculated values each day. for example, you're playing a game with a -1.679 score today, but in post #67, you made the cutoff point -4.49. Any reason for that?

I would imagine that it makes more sense to bet all games with an absolute value greater than a certain threshold. So instead of playing games in the + or -1 area just because they are the '2nd best on a given day', why not ignore that game all together?

That's what I am doing

The cutoff right now is -2 and lower, but it won't be a 2 or 3 unit play unless its -4.6 or lower

The Arizona/LA Dodgers game is a handpicked play, but I am going to take it off because 7.5 line can't be found anymore

[frogsrangers]

Don't know why I played the Yankees game... factor was not at least -2

Mistake on my part

[frogsrangers]

Can't get a winner these days

Worried

[Vinnie Paz]

Variance hit ya pal
Just gotta keep at it, still real small sample size to get worried bro
Do you take umpires into consideration for this?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Can't get a winner these days

Worried

You were warned.

[gauchojake]

name of system is apropos

[That Guy]

Buried.
Ouch

[fitguy67]

Remember: ride the variance.

Your system will be validated once you have 5000 plays, not 200.

When in doubt (or even just bored, and in the mood to meddle)...return to this post (#283) to provide the needed perspective.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Post #113 is more appropriate.

frogs model is a classic example of KITCHEN SINK statistics

[frogsrangers]

Variance hit ya pal
Just gotta keep at it, still real small sample size to get worried bro
Do you take umpires into consideration for this?

Yes, umpires are included and is a factor. Problem with umpires though, is that you can't get umpire listings for the first game of a series. So its kind of a crap shoot.

Tough night tonight. 0-3-1. Toronto/Seattle was the first game so far to go over when there is a factor greater than 4.7 and a total between 7 and 8.5. So much for that trend.

It's been a tough run as of late, but honestly I think that the right plays are being made based on the numbers, trends, and statistics given. I think its all variance. It's a tough beat though because I didn't actually start wagering real money on these plays until last Monday. The first two days of real wagering were great but its been all downhill since then and I am in the red now.

Not going to give up quite yet, but might do some tweaking and some more research to see if there are any other angles I can take here

[The Kraken]

When in doubt (or even just bored, and in the mood to meddle)...return to this post (#283) to provide the needed perspective.

Better luck tomorrow

[frogsrangers]

Just found a MAJOR error in my calculator...

Pitchers who had not pitched in the majors this season prior to July 18 had not been entered into my stats database, and therefore were assigned dummy stats in their place...

So pitchers like Zach Britton, Stephen Fife, Matt Harvey, etc. over the past couple of weeks have not had accurate stats listed for them

Probably not the reason that this has gone on a losing streak, but it HAS compromised the integrity of the system

So I am going to fix that

[frogsrangers]

F*** off

[frogsrangers]

-5.312 TOR/SEA
-5.164 BAL/NYY (10 total)
-5.008 LAA/TEX (10.5 total)
-4.164 BAL/NYY (9.5 total)
-4.008 LAA/TEX (10 total)
-1.270 CLE/KC
-0.945 DET/BOS
0.022 PHI/WAS
0.204 ARI/LAD
0.325 NYM/SF
0.579 CHW/MIN
1.651 MIA/ATL
2.218 HOU/MIL
2.507 TAM/OAK
2.572 PIT/CHC
3.637 SD/CIN
3.864 STL/COL

[frogsrangers]

To get in line with the over friendly climate as of late, we are going to play some overs today as well as unders.

Plays:

TOR/SEA U 7 for 2 units
BAL/NYY U 10 for 1 units
LAA/TEX U 10.5 for 1 unit
MIA/ATL O 7.5 for 1 unit
HOU/MIL O 8.5 for 1 unit
TAM/OAK O 7.5 for 2 units
PIT/CHC O 8 for 1 unit

[flipside2469]

Damn. I was about to call that grand slam HR too. Well that's over.

[frogsrangers]

Poor choice in the Yankees game

Didn't know that Britton had a 12 ERA career at Yankee stadium

That's a stat I need to add to my calculator and look at in the future

[High3rEl3m3nt]

For kicks, you should cap games independently on the overnight lines and see if you perform better than your system. Or at least, maybe you back the correlated plays.

[CHR1S]

Keep tweaking the calculator you are definitely on to something so cant quit now

[frogsrangers]

I need to include an automatic disqualifier clause

For example if a pitcher has an ERA of 12 in a stadium it's an automatic no play

[Smutbucket]

Keep posting numbers please regarless of system tweaks, I been using it a lot in my own capping and it has helped me profit

[frogsrangers]

Finally hit an over!