Introducing TOTALCON - My MLB Total Calculator

EVPlus · 07-25-12, 01:14 AM

frogs, I'm happy that you're doing well with your model. However, I'd be careful of saying things such as "I can't lose." Once a capper adopts that mindset, he no longer strives for improvement. And that's kiss of death.

A better mindset might be along the lines of "fukk, this is going really well. In fact, it's going too damn well. I'd better look out for a possible regression and keep hacking away at making this better."

PickWinnerAllDay · 07-25-12, 01:19 AM

I'm just going to throw my two cents out there since this whole thread is right up my alley.

Totals... are... cyclical. Meaning... for a week or so, they will do what you expect. Then there will be another week where games that should be low scoring aren't... and it seems to go in that pattern and they seem to go together. For that reason, any model is going to lack the ability to pick that kind of shit up.

Might not make sense, might not be describing it correctly, but there is definitely something to it that goes deeper than statistics can.

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 01:27 AM

Yeah I know this is probably just a hot streak and won't last... but its still fun because I have never been on a roll like this in baseball before.

That's why I built this calculator to begin with, because I couldn't find an edge in baseball. I am good enough at college football/basketball to eyeball the games and pick that way, but can't do that with baseball.

Might as well ride this hot streak while it lasts.

igrok · 07-25-12, 02:44 AM

thank you very much and keep on the good work!

paco · 07-25-12, 02:55 AM

Nice work.

CrazyCarl · 07-25-12, 03:55 AM

Einstein didn't invent the lightbulb.

Ez Money 77 · 07-25-12, 04:23 AM

Originally posted by joco

its a broken clock is right twice a day...

Originally posted by The Kraken

Its the same meaning Edison

Humor me Kraken. How are the two meanings the same? How is a broken scale right two times a day?

JMon · 07-25-12, 05:37 AM

Very nice!

burma · 07-25-12, 05:51 AM

Vraiment impressionnant.Merci

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 10:09 AM

-7.010 NYY/SEA
-6.870 CHC/PIT
-5.536 OAK/TOR
-4.613 MIL/PHI
-3.888 CIN/HOU
-2.817 TB/BAL
-0.964 BOS/TEX (10 total)
-0.768 KC/LAA (8 total)
-0.159 ATL/MIA (8 total)
0.035 BOS/TEX (9.5 total)
0.231 KC/LAA (7.5 total)
0.612 MIN/CWS
0.841 ATL/MIA (7.5 total)
1.301 DET/CLE
1.507 SD/SF (7.5 total)
2.507 SD/SF (7 total)
4.224 LAD/STL
6.506 COL/ARI (9.5 total)
7.506 COL/ARI (9 total)
8.729 WAS/NYM

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 10:13 AM

Playing:

NYY/SEA U 8
CHC/PIT U 7.5
OAK/TOR U 8.5
MIL/PHI U 8.5
CIN/HOU U 8
TAM/BAL U 8.5
BOS/TEX U 10
WAS/NYM O 7.5

kazidog · 07-25-12, 10:35 AM

BOL Frog. If this hit like your plays did yesterday, I will begin to believe you are on to something. Lets hope it repeats.

The Kraken · 07-25-12, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Ez Money 77

Humor me Kraken. How are the two meanings the same? How is a broken scale right two times a day?

You'd have to read back through the entire thread for context. But it was all in reference to a misquote earlier in the thread.

Extra Innings · 07-25-12, 01:35 PM

Nice run, not endorsing the application your using but nice run.

alta · 07-25-12, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Playing:

NYY/SEA U 8 moved to 7.5
CHC/PIT U 7.5
OAK/TOR U 8.5 moved to 9
MIL/PHI U 8.5
CIN/HOU U 8 moved to 7.5
TAM/BAL U 8.5
BOS/TEX U 10 moved to 9.5
WAS/NYM O 7.5

Interesting...
4 unders have moved off the quoted total.
3 with the under, 1 opposite the under.

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 02:37 PM

No longer going to pick overs with this

They never hit

Thought Washington/NYM would but lack of clutch hitting left it half a run short

timmyboy34243 · 07-25-12, 03:07 PM

i would appreciate it if you would still post the overs............

Originally posted by frogsrangers

No longer going to pick overs with this

They never hit

Thought Washington/NYM would but lack of clutch hitting left it half a run short

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by timmyboy34243

i would appreciate it if you would still post the overs............

Terrible record with them

I guess I still could, but I personally won't play them myself

Late inning bullpen collapses are killing me today

The only bullpen that didn't collapse was the Mets/Nats and that was the game I was over on

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 06:14 PM

Mariners/Yankees hangs on for the under

2-2 on the day

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 06:26 PM

Who is this scrub pitcher for the Orioles?

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 07:03 PM

Not even through 3 innings and OAK/TOR and TAM/BAL already over

One of those days that was bound to happen

Going to have to bounce back tomorrow

timmyboy34243 · 07-25-12, 08:32 PM

continue to post the overs, no one is forcing anyone to play ANY of your sides........

JFM727 · 07-25-12, 09:00 PM

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 10:17 PM

Another bullpen meltdown. 7 runs in the past 2 innings to push the Astros/Reds game over

Francisco Cordero is worthless

frogsrangers · 07-25-12, 10:19 PM

Worst day so far.... but 3-4-1 isn't that bad. Sure as hell beats 1-7 or 0-8.

Inspirited · 07-25-12, 11:25 PM

beware, blindly betting unders has yielded a profit this month according to this

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query?sid=guest&sort=ON_PL&text=season+%3D+2012+and+month+%3D+07&submit=query

Ez Money 77 · 07-25-12, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

You'd have to read back through the entire thread for context. But it was all in reference to a misquote earlier in the thread.

lol okay good it wasn't being serious.

Sorry just thought I was missing something.

CrazyCarl · 07-25-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by CrazyCarl

Einstein didn't invent the lightbulb.

Originally posted by Ez Money 77

Humor me Kraken. How are the two meanings the same? How is a broken scale right two times a day?

Originally posted by The Kraken

You'd have to read back through the entire thread for context. But it was all in reference to a misquote earlier in the thread.

Yeah, that. Kraken knows what's up.

Although Edison didn't technically invent the lightbulb, but whatever.

frogsrangers · 07-26-12, 10:03 AM

-9.853 kc/sea
-4.706 pit/hou
-3.348 tam/bal
-1.173 det/cle
1.009 oak/tor
1.491 was/mil
2.556 lad/stl
3.788 nym/ari

frogsrangers · 07-26-12, 10:03 AM

Definately playing KC/SEA an PIT/HOU

Doing more research on TAM/BAL and DET/CLE

frogsrangers · 07-26-12, 10:08 AM

Playing:

KC/SEA U 7
PIT/HOU U 8.5
DET/CLE U 7.5

Not playing TAM/BAL because Tillman has not pitched at home yet this year so no idea what he brings to the table at home, especially on a hot day with the wind blowing straight out

Vinnie Paz · 07-26-12, 10:08 AM

Thanks man
Ill follow on the seattle game

Ez Money 77 · 07-26-12, 12:27 PM

gonna tail today as well. GL

frogsrangers · 07-26-12, 11:45 PM

Verlander's 7th inning meltdown and Ramon Santiago's defensive gaffes cost us a perfect day by half a run. But a winning day is a winning day and we will take what we can get.

mikmik · 07-27-12, 07:53 AM

Frog keep up the great work. You def have something on the under total. Thank You