2012 London Summer Olympics ideas and leans thread.

[benrama]

Magnusson "not to win" line dropping every time I look at it

Now I kind of do wish I jumped on at +125 or greater ... I get the sense though that he will come out really strong in the heats to prove a point, and the pressure won't kick in till the final. If I get a line in the +odds again I'm taking it.

ramones - agreed nice work, do you still think of the USA mens 4x100 medley as close to a sure thing?

[ramones951]

ramones - agreed nice work, do you still think of the USA mens 4x100 medley as close to a sure thing?

Hell yeah. Looking even better with the way Magnussen is swimming.

Grevers is on point in the 100 back. Australia's backstroker was lucky to even go within 1.5 seconds of Grevers today.

Brendan Hansen is feeling good after medaling in the 100 breast. Adrian is swimming great and I know Phelps is gonna rip an amazing 100 fly in what quite possibly will be his last swim of his career.

I feel even better about it than when I first posted the play!

The fact the line is still only at -194 is just astonishing....

[benrama]

Yea, I keep looking at it too and trying to see what I'm missing. I made some of my biggest bets of the year on Ye in the 200IM, and got in at basically even odds, she's now -2086

USA medley relay was the other event I had my eye on for a huge play, I think the chance to get those odds will drop by finals time so I'm thinking of locking it in now. Looking to go HUGE, only way to get ahead at this gambling thing - pick your spots

[ramones951]

Yeah go ahead and lock it in, I'm sure it will only go down. USA owns this event.

And nice grab on Ye I have her at +105 as well although she was around +300 before the meet ... Should be some easy cash

[ramones951]

I was a little unsure of this play a few days ago but now I'm liking the possibility of an upset even more and more:

France +295 (5Dimes) in the Men's 4x200 free relay.

France is overflowing with confidence after their big win in the 4x100 and are obviously in great form.

Agnel swam incredibly fast, at least 1 second faster than Lochte or Phelps are capable of going right now. Also Their 3rd leg Clement Lefert has posted a solid time of 1:46.9 this year, but swam LIGHTS OUT in the 4x100 relay, splitting 47.3. I think Agnel and Lefert have the potential to cancel out with Lochte and Phelps. If Lefert swims the way he did in the 4x100, the US could be in trouble.

That leaves Berens and Dwyer for USA vs. Mallet and Leveaux for France. That will be extremely close as well.

True odds for France should be around +170.

I would get this play in before they swim the heats at 5am Eastern time because the odds could change.

[darko3131]

I was thinking about Cielo before after seeing you like it too, I'm gonna tail. GL

Hmm major odds differences between bovada and bmaker (my 2 books) Cielo 14/1 on one and 5/1 on the other. Agnel +125 and +225. Cielo at 14/1 with Agnel hedge may be the play.

[Chong Wizard]

That was by biggest odds winner. I'm on Cesar Cielo small at +715 so that could be the biggest.

That was a really good idea grabbing Phelps +130 in the 200 fly after prelims, because as I pointed out in another thread, the odds will be lowered considerably after semifinals (they are now at -110, still pretty generous). Nothing for Phelps has changed since before the meet, when he was around -500 to win the 200 fly.

I feel really good about his chances in the 100 fly and we are still getting great odds on that.

That Soni swim was just a bad beat; nothing we could do about that one. Maybe she will cruise prelims in the 200 breast and we can jump all over that when the books adjust the line too much!

You can get Cesar Filho at +1400 on 5dimes right now. Might wanna sprinkle a few dollars on that

[KGambler]

That was by biggest odds winner. I'm on Cesar Cielo small at +715 so that could be the biggest.

That was a really good idea grabbing Phelps +130 in the 200 fly after prelims, because as I pointed out in another thread, the odds will be lowered considerably after semifinals (they are now at -110, still pretty generous). Nothing for Phelps has changed since before the meet, when he was around -500 to win the 200 fly.

I feel really good about his chances in the 100 fly and we are still getting great odds on that.

That Soni swim was just a bad beat; nothing we could do about that one. Maybe she will cruise prelims in the 200 breast and we can jump all over that when the books adjust the line too much!

Hey Ramones, awesome job here. Thanks. I wish I had seen this thread earlier. I have been betting on a lot of the swimming events. Add me to the list of people on Shiwen "Dope Fiend" Ye tomorrow Maybe they replaced her blood with pure liquid oxygen or something.

I don't understand what you are saying about Phelps... Why do you say that nothing has changed? Wasn't he a tremendous disappointment in the 400 IM? He was much, much slower than in Omaha. So the money flowing in against him is assuming that he is "off".

Could you explain your thoughts on what happened/is happening with Phelps?

Thanks.

[ramones951]

Hey Ramones, awesome job here. Thanks. I wish I had seen this thread earlier. I have been betting on a lot of the swimming events. Add me to the list of people on Shiwen "Dope Fiend" Ye tomorrow Maybe they replaced her blood with pure liquid oxygen or something.

I don't understand what you are saying about Phelps... Why do you say that nothing has changed? Wasn't he a tremendous disappointment in the 400 IM? He was much, much slower than in Omaha. So the money flowing in against him is assuming that he is "off".

Could you explain your thoughts on what happened/is happening with Phelps?

Thanks.

Lol yeah something is sketchy with Ye... But whatever, easiest +105 cash ever..

What I mean about Phelps is that whatever shape he's in coming into the meet is gonna stay the same. Whatever he's gonna go in the 200 fly has essentially already been decided. His time in the prelims doesn't change that, however the books made a huge adjustment on his odds to win the 200 fly, even though he was obviously cruising. The big stars like Phelps and Lochte have a very long and grueling Olympic schedule so they always cruise it in the heats. So I mean Phelps' true odds of winning the 200 fly haven't changed from before his prelim swim, although the books changed his odds from about -500 to +120!

Don't be too alarmed by Phelps 400 IM swim. I had a feeling coming into the meet that it was the perfect recipe for disaster for Phelps. nothing in the world was going to stop Lochte from winning that race. First, I know deep down he really didn't even want to be in the 400 IM in the first place, and he knew in his head he was a huge underdog to Lochte. It's hard to go as fast as you can when you are already expecting bad things are going to happen. Phelps has said time and time again that he has already achieved all his goals in his career, so what possible motivation could he have to swim fast? The only reason he swam the 400 IM was to attempt to become the first male to three-peat an Olympic event. Had he not swam it, he potentially could have watched as Kitajima accomplished the feat in the 100 breast before he even had a chance to try (although we now know it didn't happen).

He went faster in Omaha because, as embarrassing as it was to not medal in London, it would have been even more embarrassing to not even qualify in the 400 IM at Olympic Trials on Live TV which is what almost happened. Phelps wouldn't have even gone a 4:07 if Clary wasn't pushing him every step of that race.

So don't worry about Phelps, he will still have a good meet. He had a blazing fast split in the 4x100 relay. Im looking forward to his 100 fly

[darko3131]

I love when a +105 bet goes to -5000 With my luck Shiwen will lose though.

[ramones951]

Pinnacle players:

Swimming: Take Federica Pellegrini NOT to win the gold in the 200 freestyle (-105). She will be in contention, but this race is WIDE open. She hasn't been been the top two in the world in 2 years. There are at least 7 other women that are capable of beating her. Three of them have a GREAT chance of beating her, and have been swimming much better. Great odds to get 7 people over Pellegrini who shouldn't even be favored in the first place. This is currently the strongest play on the board.

More to come...

Ship IT!!!!

[Reener77]

Thoughts on Men's 4x200 Free? US was 2.5 seconds better than anyone in heats, any chance they lose?

[ramones951]

Really like all those. Except (surprisingly) Phelps at -600 in the 200 fly. Definitely not worth the chalk. The 200 fly is his bread and butter, but actually in recent years he doesn't seem to have the dominant closing speed on that last 50. The field has closed the gap on Phelps in this event considerably. I expect Nick D'Arcy to have a breakout swim... probably around 1:53 low. Matsuda threatening 1:53. It's Phelps' race to lose but there's no way I'm laying -600.

[ramones951]

Thoughts on Men's 4x200 Free? US was 2.5 seconds better than anyone in heats, any chance they lose?

I think there's a decent chance France can pull the upset if they swim to their potential.

If you want a better relay play at better odds than this one, go with USA in the 4x100 medley.

[ramones951]

Their times in the heats don't mean much because both countries will be using different lineups.

[Reener77]

Odds on USA to win 4x200 Free have gone from -340 to -430 in the last 10 mins

[ramones951]

USA takes it down

France blew that one...

[Brent13081]

Great call on YE SHIWEN Ramones! I wish I woulda put more on it. But $100 I am happy with! ...

Do you think Phelps -145 in the 100m Fly is a good bet?

[blumpkin]

any thoughts to the upcoming track and field events?

[ramones951]

Great call on YE SHIWEN Ramones! I wish I woulda put more on it. But $100 I am happy with! ...

Do you think Phelps -145 in the 100m Fly is a good bet?

Yeah I think he wins the 100 fly.

[MoneylineExpress]

Mens Time Trial Cycling: Bradley Wiggins -200 to win gold (DSI)

Also Soni will take the 200 breathstroke unless a swimmer comes out of nowhere which we have seen in a few events, but not laying -450

[darko3131]

Finally a good day. What's the deal with this Cielo guy favored over the field in the 50 but 20/1 in the 100 now, can't turn?

[Thurgood]

You guys ever wager a juiced line? I just took Australia to win over Spain in field hockey for -300. Risking 3 to win 1 but why not? I looked at other lines and Australia is 5/4 to win gold right now. Australia beat South Africa 6-0 2 days ago, while Spain only tied Pakistan 1-1.

I guess you could say what if Australia goes on cruise control but a lot of higher ranked teams in the other group, so they will want a high position in their own group. Not to mention Australia is ranked #1 in the world.

Trying to make sense out of these lines is crazy. England is always like -1200 vs anyone they play in field hockey, Germany (ranked #2 in the world) is -800 in their upcoming match but for some odd reason Australia is -300???

Oh well. Let's go Australia!

[Thurgood]

You guys ever wager a juiced line? I just took Australia to win over Spain in field hockey for -300. Risking 3 to win 1 but why not? I looked at other lines and Australia is 5/4 to win gold right now. Australia beat South Africa 6-0 2 days ago, while Spain only tied Pakistan 1-1.

I guess you could say what if Australia goes on cruise control but a lot of higher ranked teams in the other group, so they will want a high position in their own group. Not to mention Australia is ranked #1 in the world.

Trying to make sense out of these lines is crazy. England is always like -1200 vs anyone they play in field hockey, Germany (ranked #2 in the world) is -800 in their upcoming match but for some odd reason Australia is -300???

Oh well. Let's go Australia!

Cashed!

[ramones951]

Cash the field vs James Magnussen!

[goblue24]

Cash the field vs James Magnussen!

I cashed with you on that one. Thanks for posting these picks. I appreciate the couple of winners I have had in the pool. We need a track and field expert next

[ramones951]

Yeah for sure lets keep this momentum going!

Odds for the medley relay have dropped to -285 on Pinnacle.

[Chong Wizard]

Ramones do you have any swimming winners for us tomorrow?

[ramones951]

Cesar Cielo is still only -145 in the 50 free on Friday! Doesn't look like anything tomorrow has any value anymore except the 200 IM....

I may make a small to medium size play on Phelps in the 200 IM tomorrow to get some action. We're getting great odds (+310). Coming into the meet i thought this was his best chance to beat Lochte. Also, Lochte swims the 200 back final about 25 minutes before this race, so it will be a tough double for him.

[ramones951]

By the way about our Medley relay bet... Our only weakness against Australia was supposed to be freestyle, and with Adrian beating Magnussen it's looking pretty good now! Those of us who got it at -150, it's the steal of the fuckin century!!! I would even say it's still worth the chalk at -300.

[Chong Wizard]

Thanks! Im on all those plays.

[Reener77]

Think Lochte takes the 200 back?

[TheMoneyTree]

By the way about our Medley relay bet... Our only weakness against Australia was supposed to be freestyle, and with Adrian beating Magnussen it's looking pretty good now! Those of us who got it at -150, it's the steal of the fuckin century!!! I would even say it's still worth the chalk at -300.

Australia are 1.67 for a Top 3 finish, What do you think about that?

[dj_destroyer]

Think Lochte takes the 200 back?

Yes.

Also, thanks ramones for the Pellegrini bet, cashed huge on that one.

[Brent13081]

LOCHTE IS A OVER RATED CHOKER... Wow and to think they were comparing him to Phelps???? Damn Joke