2012 London Summer Olympics ideas and leans thread.

Le_Donk · 07-11-12, 04:24 PM

Judo: To Win Gold Medal - Men Heavyweight (+100 kg)

TEDDY RINER -160

- youngest world champion in the history of judo at age 18
- finished 3rd in bejing 2008
- 69 wins and 2 loses since 2009
- he holds an unmatched record of six world titles obtained in the +100kg
- hungry for olympic gold
- only 23 years old

GET SOME

k13 · 07-11-12, 04:31 PM

Britain to not win any medals in men's volleyball.

trytrytry · 07-11-12, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by ramones951

You're probably right. However I do this mostly for recreation/entertainment so if I'm helping others beat the books I'm fine with it. As long as I can make a small profit then it's all good, which shouldn't be a problem since I see at least 1 value play in all the swimming events listed.

thanks much ramones..become PRO and Ill send you some free points..really appreciate this sort of attitude on the forums..

dj_destroyer · 07-11-12, 04:45 PM

Ramone is fukking sharp as a tack... I've followed all his plays and every single one has moved in our favour. Expecting the same for the 4x100 mens medley.

I wish we had sharps in every olympic sport, I'm sure there has to be weak numbers in events like canoeing, archery, etc.

grizzlies1 · 07-11-12, 05:02 PM

Thanks Ramone. I maxed it at Pinny, unfortunately that was only 193 pounds but hopefully they increase the limit before they move the odds too much.

Snowball · 07-11-12, 05:21 PM

Russia over GB in Gold Medals now up to -180.

Keep up the good work gents, there's some sharp info here.
I'll review it all when the time approaches, which is coming soon.
5 Dimes doesn't have any sport-specific entries yet.

Le_Donk · 07-11-12, 05:50 PM

be careful betting against the brits
olympic homecourt advantage is HUGE

1956 through 2008, excluding the boycotted 1980 and 1984 Games

USA decrease from 1996 is because in 1992, the Soviet Union competed for the last time as a unified country.

ramones951 · 07-11-12, 06:07 PM

Damn that's really impressive.

ramones951 · 07-11-12, 06:08 PM

Do you have a table for gold medals? I would assume the results would be similar

Le_Donk · 07-11-12, 06:22 PM

The Plus sports page: The home advantage

http://plus.maths.org/content/plus-sports-page-home-advantage#disclaimers

How will the UK do in the 2012 Olympics?

If the Poms increase their medal share by a factor of 1.5, then they will claim around 7.4% of all medals on offer in London. Judging by past results, this will put them either in 3rd place, if they can sneak past the Russians, or 4th place in the overall medal tally. The UK should also increase their gold medal share.

The 2012 Olympic programme features 26 sports in a total of 39 disciplines. It's difficult to determine in advance how many medals will be awarded in a Games, but going on the Beijing numbers (302 gold, 303 silver and 353 bronze medals awarded — 958 in total), our bold prediction for the British team is...
<center style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; ">...70 medals, including 30 golds.</center>

their prediction is over the top

Snowball · 07-11-12, 06:23 PM

how come 1980 (i realize 1980 wasn't complete without US)
and 1984 are not included in that list ?
and what about the 1996 US had less medals.
I see the trend is there for some home cooking percentage
increase, but Russia had 23 gold in 2008, GB 19.
In 2004, Russia had 27 gold and GB had 9. In 2000,
Russia had 32 and GB had 11. All Summer Olympics.
The populations are not comparable.

Olympics Site Closed | Olympics at Sports-Reference.com

http://www.sports-reference.com/olympics/summer/2004/

Le_Donk · 07-11-12, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

how come 1980 (i realize 1980 wasn't complete without US)
and 1984 are not included in that list ?
and what about the 1996 US had less medals.
I see the trend is there for some home cooking percentage
increase, but Russia had 23 gold in 2008, GB 19.
In 2004, Russia had 27 gold and GB had 9. In 2000,
Russia had 32 and GB had 11. All Summer Olympics.
The populations are not comparable.
http://www.sports-reference.com/olympics/summer/2004/

1st picture is taken from that site

Scheduled Maintenance

http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/webexclusive/1500831/How-many-medals-will-Great-Britain-win-in-the-2012-Olympics.html

contains medal data for the last 12 fully attended Games (1956 through 2008, excluding the boycotted 1980 and 1984 Games)

Le_Donk · 07-13-12, 06:26 PM

unfortunately you cant parlay olympic bets at pinnacle
anyone can recommend me a book where you can make olympic parlays ?

there are a lot of locks , like David Rudisha for 800m or the chinese team in table tennis

beefcake · 07-14-12, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

USA to have more gold metals than China (-140)
RUSSIA to have more gold metals than Great Britain (-195)

these look good (5Dimes)

Hey snowball, have you noticed that Gb has gained on Russia the last few games in this category? And the host country always gets that boost in golds and overall medals.I like GB at +150.but either way one of us will win!!

beefcake · 07-14-12, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by rm18

Like Britain to win silver in basketball

THIS...Deng can dominate.Odds should be around 100-1

k13 · 07-14-12, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by Boscoe

do we load up on bolt for 100m/200m? fluke he lost to blake?

Bolt is only -128 to win the 100m??? wow

ramones951 · 07-18-12, 11:06 AM

Would it be considered taking a shot to bet on a certain French swimmer NOT to win the gold medal in an event they didn't even qualify for? But they're still listed at Pinnacle?

sportsguy04 · 07-18-12, 11:08 AM

USA women's soccer to win +230

dj_destroyer · 07-18-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by ramones951

Would it be considered taking a shot to bet on a certain French swimmer NOT to win the gold medal in an event they didn't even qualify for? But they're still listed at Pinnacle?

Ramones, quit playing coy with us! Drop a play or don't...

(please)

odog11 · 07-18-12, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

USA to have more gold metals than China (-140)
RUSSIA to have more gold metals than Great Britain (-195)

these look good (5Dimes)

Going to put something on US over China prop partially just to have interest in any event US is going for the gold in. Looking for a better # and trying to decide how much to play, 5Dimes has it at -180. Does anyone think there is value there still?

ramones951 · 07-19-12, 05:49 PM

Want a little free money? Bet Michael Phelps NOT to win 100 freestyle (-500) at Pinnacle. Why? He's not swimming that event.

Pinnacle just added this in the past day or so, I'm not sure why.

ramones951 · 07-19-12, 06:01 PM

Also, I like the value in Yannick Agnel to win 200 freestyle at (+248). Can't guarantee he will win, but he and Ryan Lochte will be going head to head in this. I would say they are about dead even in this event, but I feel the reason Lochte is listed at +136 is due to the hype surrounding him... Actually, Agnel's best time is faster than Lochte's best.

Phelps was withdrawn from this event, taking one main threat out of the picture. Also, Agnel has also dropped the 400 freestyle to focus more on the 200 and 100, as reflected in his training. Worth a shot.

Paul Biedermann might also be worth a very small shot at +671.

Optional · 07-19-12, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by ramones951

Would it be considered taking a shot to bet on a certain French swimmer NOT to win the gold medal in an event they didn't even qualify for? But they're still listed at Pinnacle?

Originally posted by ramones951

Want a little free money? Bet Michael Phelps NOT to win 100 freestyle (-500) at Pinnacle. Why? He's not swimming that event.

Pinnacle just added this in the past day or so, I'm not sure why.

Under Olympics rules at Pinny...

"If a particular athlete/team has a yes/no (2-way) price to win the gold medal, then that athlete/team must start competition for action."

ramones951 · 07-19-12, 06:11 PM

Decent value in Park Tae-Hwan to win the 400 freestyle at +179. Not as strong as the other plays because Sun Yang is looking very strong, however, Park is the defending Olympic and World champion. I just bring it up because true odds for him to win should be around +110...

Look for Park and Sun to be neck and neck. It feels like Park has been around forever but he's only 22 years old (only 18 years old when he won gold). Could possibly have a chip on his shoulder for being overshadowed by Sun Yang. They went head-to-head at Worlds last year and Park took him down. It will be a great race.

ramones951 · 07-19-12, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Under Olympics rules at Pinny...

"If a particular athlete/team has a yes/no (2-way) price to win the gold medal, then that athlete/team must start competition for action."

Ah ok then that settles it.

chrizgod · 07-19-12, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by Le_Donk

Judo: To Win Gold Medal - Men Heavyweight (+100 kg)

TEDDY RINER -160

- youngest world champion in the history of judo at age 18
- finished 3rd in bejing 2008
- 69 wins and 2 loses since 2009
- he holds an unmatched record of six world titles obtained in the +100kg
- hungry for olympic gold
- only 23 years old

GET SOME

nice call! line is now at -209

Le_Donk · 07-20-12, 12:00 PM

archery - to make top 3 - team women

India Yes +180

great odds for the number 2 ranked team in the world , with current world no.1 ranked Deepika Kumari

Boscoe · 07-20-12, 03:25 PM

great info in this thread

purplehazae479 · 07-20-12, 03:46 PM

Archery - Women's Team Outright

04:00 AM

13015

South Korea

-150

13016

China

+450

13017

Chinese Taipei

+600

13018

India

+850

13019

Italy

+1000

13020

USA

+1400

13021

Mexico

+1400

13022

Great Britain

+1200

13023

Russia

+2000

13024

Ukraine

+5000

13025

Denmark

+5000

13026

Japan

+5000

purplehazae479 · 07-20-12, 03:46 PM

That's why my site has for women's archery - any possible bets there?

davidchong · 07-20-12, 03:52 PM

Last long jump winner olympic games (2008) Irving Saladino beats today possible favorite Mitchell Watt in diamond league, saladino opened at 10-1...

chrizgod · 07-20-12, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by davidchong

Last long jump winner olympic games (2008) Irving Saladino beats today possible favorite Mitchell Watt in diamond league, saladino opened at 10-1...

Saladino is +545 at the moment at pinnacle. still good odds i guess.

davidchong · 07-20-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by chrizgod

Saladino is +545 at the moment at pinnacle. still good odds i guess.

Bet365 has it at 10-1

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=1305311622&stf=1

chrizgod · 07-20-12, 05:52 PM

Pole Vault men to win gold: Renaud Lavillenie -123

- outdoor unbeaten in 2012
- world leader with 5.97 m in 2012
- european championships gold medallist 2012
- World Indoor Championships Gold medallist, 2012
- European Indoor Championships Gold medallist, 2009, 2011
- World Championships Bronze medallist, 2009, 2011
- Continental Cup Silver Medallist, 2011
- Diamond League meeting winner, 2011
- European Championships Gold medallist, 2010

Snowball · 07-21-12, 10:11 AM

Russia to win more Gold than GB first posted here @ -170
is now -200.

Men's Handball: France +200 for Gold.