Fading The Public

[brahmabull117]

yes do it prove your point !!!

here are some of the numbers on college football last week

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/CFB.html

Wisconsin - 82% on spread, 74% on Total - 1-1 record
Stanford - 92% on spread - 1-0 record
Alabama - 73% on spread, 57% on over - 1-1 record
Nevada - 82% on spread, 73% on over - 1-0 record
TCU - 79% on spread - 1-0 record
OSU - Overwhelming majority on OSU and total -0-2 record
South Carolina - 73% on spread, 57% over - 1-0 record as total was a push



do I need to keep going here?? how many stats do I need to post before people understand that betting public trends are utterly worthless?

[Naz18]

Doing anything blindly is never going to work, you have to pick your spots.

[illini22]

It's not fading the public automatically. It's about finding value thru public perception. Which is typically going to be on underdogs because the public more often than not bets the favorites. Usually blindly for that matter.

[brahmabull117]

It's not fading the public automatically. It's about finding value thru public perception. Which is typically going to be on underdogs because the public more often than not bets the favorites. Usually blindly for that matter.

actually it's about finding games where the outcome is different than the line set by vegas



you do that by evaluating matchups, injuries, previous history, new additions, etc... Public betting trends are utterly worthless

[jarvol]

here are some of the numbers on college football last week

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/CFB.html

Wisconsin - 82% on spread, 74% on Total - 1-1 record
Stanford - 92% on spread - 1-0 record
Alabama - 73% on spread, 57% on over - 1-1 record
Nevada - 82% on spread, 73% on over - 1-0 record
TCU - 79% on spread - 1-0 record
OSU - Overwhelming majority on OSU and total -0-2 record
South Carolina - 73% on spread, 57% over - 1-0 record as total was a push



do I need to keep going here?? how many stats do I need to post before people understand that betting public trends are utterly worthless?

Another large sample size...........

And for your statistically challenged ass.......SCarolina/UGA was a push for most not a win. Nevada was a loss not a win.

[brahmabull117]

Another large sample size........... And for your statistically challenged ass.......SCarolina/UGA was a push for most not a win. Nevada was a loss not a win.

I meant to say Oregon. People backed Oregon in that game and that was a win


also I meant to say total was a win and spread was a push for south carolina

[Ingram$]

Monitor it before giving trust

[Ingram$]

I meant to say Oregon. People backed Oregon in that game and that was a win


also I meant to say total was a win and spread was a push for south carolina

[MartinBlank]

Nice job picking out 6-7 games of week 2 to support your "theory".

Now, let me try.

81% Public on Iowa----LOSS
76% Public on SD State--LOSS
80% Public on Ohio State---LOSS
63% Public on Mississippi State--LOSS
65% Public on North Carolina---LOSS
80% Public on Pitt----LOSS
71% Public on Virginia Tech---LOSS
82% Public on Minnesota---LOSS
77% Public on Cal---LOSS
64% Public on NC State---LOSS
70% Public on Purdue---LOSS
72% Public on Southern Miss---LOSS
64% Public on Syracuse---LOSS
64% Public on NIU---LOSS
66% Public on Nebraska--LOSS
65% Public on Virginia---LOSS
63% Public on Texas---LOSS
82% Public on UCLA---LOSS

[JGILL50]

public bet will pull me off a play but it wont put me on one.

[JGILL50]

Nice job picking out 6-7 games of week 2 to support your "theory".

Now, let me try.

81% Public on Iowa----LOSS
76% Public on SD State--LOSS
80% Public on Ohio State---LOSS
63% Public on Mississippi State--LOSS
65% Public on North Carolina---LOSS
80% Public on Pitt----LOSS
71% Public on Virginia Tech---LOSS
82% Public on Minnesota---LOSS

was waiting on this to happen

LOL nice

[brahmabull117]

Nice job picking out 6-7 games of week 2 to support your "theory". LOSS

I wasn't gonna do every single play in college cause there's a million games a week


if you want I can do every single play for NFL and you can see there is ZERO advantage to betting against the public

[gauchojake]

Just tell us who you're on bro

[k13]

You don't even know who the PUBLIC is or what they really bet on or the true %.

[crustyme]

"

[jjgold]

No such thing as public money anymore or at least hard to determine
Its a major square theory

[brahmabull117]

hey retard... its obvious you dont have a clue. whats new. In the NFL over the last eight seasons, games in which 75% of the public are on one side lost roughly 53-54% of the time, meaning fading the public resulted in wins that often. ]

my original number was 48-52, 53-54% isn't that far away which basically means that those stats are worthless


BTW why don't you tell me those numbers for totals??? totals won on the OVER side 56% of the time last year and the public generally bets overs. You add up the totals and spreads from last year and I can guarantee you the overall numbers are about even

[JGILL50]

lines are set by the action that vegas wants to receive bottom line.

[Inkwell77]

I have heard about this theory that anytime the public is on a dog definitely bet the favorite many many times. Have done a bit of backtesting and from what I have found this theory/strategy is bunk, at least in college football.

The sport you are fading the public in differs quite a bit. WNBA, fade the public and you will do alright.

[crustyme]

my original number was 48-52, 53-54% isn't that far away which basically means that those stats are worthless


BTW why don't you tell me those numbers for totals??? totals won on the OVER side 56% of the time last year and the public generally bets overs. You add up the totals and spreads from last year and I can guarantee you the overall numbers are about even

um 48-52% is not even close to 53-56%.

48-52= 50% which means you think theres 0% edge fading the public which is 100% wrong.

hit 53-56% over 8 seasons and tell us there was no edge, retardo.

[brahmabull117]

um 48-52% is not even close to 53-56%. 48-52= 50% which means you think theres 0% edge fading the public which is 100% wrong. hit 53-56% over 8 seasons and tell us there was no edge, retardo.

why didn't you tell us the totals number??


I guarantee you that the public won about 5-6% on totals, so your numbers become worthless

[gauchojake]

[crustyme]

X5000

[hawley]

Brah its painfully obviously all of this is over your head.

Just keep picking plays your way and if you continue to win be happy with it.

[brahmabull117]

Brah its painfully obviously all of this is over your head. Just keep picking plays your way and if you continue to win be happy with it.

oh brother


some clown in this thread already admitted that there's only a 3% edge in NFL betting by paying a lot of attention to these public betting trends. If your goal is to win 53% of your bets, you can keep basing all your bets on line movement and public backing nonsense



those of us here who are actually trying to be good bettors (by winning a huge % of our bets) will continue to pay attention to matchups, injuries, previous history, additions and how the 2 teams are playing currently

[jjgold]

[hawley]

oh brother


some clown in this thread already admitted that there's only a 3% edge in NFL betting by paying a lot of attention to these public betting trends. If your goal is to win 53% of your bets, you can keep basing all your bets on line movement and public backing nonsense



those of us here who are actually trying to be good bettors (by winning a huge % of our bets) will continue to pay attention to matchups, injuries, previous history, additions and how the 2 teams are playing currently

I think im going alright at the moment brother. but thanks.

[ShogunRua]

win.

numerous people have tried to explain basic gambling fundamentals to this guy several times. he just doesn't understand...I suggest you stop wasting your time. also, someone mentioned he stopped posting for a couple weeks after starting all these threads a month ago. it's (obviously) because he went broke betting on huge favorites...he even admitted this yesterday.

[illini22]

actually it's about finding games where the outcome is different than the line set by vegas



you do that by evaluating matchups, injuries, previous history, new additions, etc... Public betting trends are utterly worthless

Firstly, I don't even understand what you mean by the bolded text. It's very broad. And secondly, if you would take the time to read what I wrote I agreed that public betting trends are worthless. I said that exploiting PUBLIC PERCEPTION is key. ESPECIALLY in the sport of NFL. However, the MAJORITY of the time, the public will be heavily backing a team that is getting more love than it should. Obviously that is where the value comes in on the other side. If you don't understand that, then that is pretty terrible.

Lastly, there is only a few handful of cappers that can continually find edges on Oddsmakers lines. They are going to have some great connections around the league finding out information before the people on this forum. If you actually think that the oddsmakers haven't adjusted their line because of an injury, matchups, previous history, etc... than your kidding yourself. I can guarantee you that oddsmakers know way more about who is hurt where and how they looked in practice than you will ever know OR THINK YOU KNOW. Trying to cap a game is almost utterly pointless, especially in football.

[ferndog]

Let me put it to you this way. Everyone who posts on this forum is the public.

[brahmabull117]

win. numerous people have tried to explain basic gambling fundamentals to this guy several times.

Your "basic gambling fundamental" of betting against the public has proven to be complete and utter nonsense in this thread you idiot

[illini22]

Let me put it to you this way. Everyone who posts on this forum is the public.

[ShogunRua]

Your "basic gambling fundamental" of betting against the public has proven to be complete and utter nonsense in this thread you idiot

I feel like I'm talking to my 9 year old nephew here. It's never a good idea to just blindly fade the public, but it's useful for....oh fukk it. 3 other people in this thread have already explained this already. I give up. It's going to be fun watching you crash and burn for the 4th time this year.

Good luck.

[brahmabull117]

, but it's useful for:

2-6% edge in spreads and negative 2-6% edge in totals



it's absolutely worthless

[hawley]

Brah stick to playing madden games online for $30 a pop.