Fading The Public

[brahmabull117]

I just don't get it, I really don't



where did this concept that "fading the public" is a profitable betting strategy come from???



Do people understand that Vegas doesn't even want the public to hit a low percentage?? They want the public to hit about 48-52% so they get juiced to death long term. What's better for Vegas?? people bet for a month, hit a horrible percentage and never come back because they're discouraged or people bet for years, never really lose or win in terms of their record but just get juiced to death???



the bottom line is that public backing a side one way or another means absolutely nothing

[jarvol]

Will a mod please put a limit on the number of threads non-pros or douchebags in general can start?

[RudyRuetigger]

you have alot to learn

[zsr]

Probably the wrong forum to post this because literally everyone here is down money lol.

[jeffdane]

you shouldnt fade every game the public is on. there are games that vegas likes and if u can identify and fade the public on these games, you will smell like money. money flavored fabreeze

[imp4pdabest]

I just don't get it, I really don't



where did this concept that "fading the public" is a profitable betting strategy come from???



Do people understand that Vegas doesn't even want the public to hit a low percentage?? They want the public to hit about 48-52% so they get juiced to death long term. What's better for Vegas?? people bet for a month, hit a horrible percentage and never come back because they're discouraged or people bet for years, never really lose or win in terms of their record but just get juiced to death???



the bottom line is that public backing a side one way or another means absolutely nothing

I never understood this either. But, on this site, when guys claim "lock", "pound", or "guaranteed money" & it doesn't hit, that encourages others to fade. It shouldn't be about fading someone, it should be about having confidence in your pick.

[MartinBlank]

Fading the public play is not an absolute. Nothing in gambling is.

But. There is certainly predictive value in going against public betting trends. And if you don't know or understand how and why that is, then you really are bad at this.

[brahmabull117]

There is certainly predictive value in going against public betting trends..

bullsht. Public betting trends mean absolutely nothing


the public hits 50% long term, why would I give a fukk about 50% betting trends???

[RGG]

I love the "lock" threads. Just deal with it OP.

[MartinBlank]

bullsht. Public betting trends mean absolutely nothing


the public hits 50% long term, why would I give a fukk about 50% betting trends???

You really are as dumb as a fukin' piece of lint. No one said fading the public was an absolute. It is but one more thing to use when you are handicapping a game.

Do us a favor, create 14 more threads today/tomorrow where you ask "Anyone have any thoughts on team x"?

Or better yet, we need 9 more that deal with your unhealthy obsession with Lakerboy.

And afterwards, claim those threads as wins.

[brahmabull117]

You really are as dumb as a fukin' piece of lint. Do us a favor, create 14 more threads today/tomorrow where you ask "Anyone have any thoughts on team x"? And afterwards, claim it was a win.

nice job trying to change the subject you assclown

[Grits n' Gravy]

I just don't get it, I really don't



where did this concept that "fading the public" is a profitable betting strategy come from???
Do people understand that Vegas doesn't even want the public to hit a low percentage?? They want the public to hit about 48-52% so they get juiced to death long term. What's better for Vegas?? people bet for a month, hit a horrible percentage and never come back because they're discouraged or people bet for years, never really lose or win in terms of their record but just get juiced to death???
the bottom line is that public backing a side one way or another means absolutely nothing

Have you ever ran a book? Have you ever sat in a gaming ops meeting when they are discussing revenues from each department? If you can't answer yes to either, kindly shut the fuk up. Public plays are usually the same plays that fill up the sucker bet parlay and teaser cards so it is always in the casinos best interest for the public to lose. The business is always going to thrive. Sports bettors come and go. They don't give 2 shits if some jerkoff like you goes on a hot streak betting heavy favorites. A day or two of the popular faves getting beat and you are gone and another schmuck takes your place. Horses are what keep the books afloat with the guaranteed %.

Here is an example of how the books take public money: Yesterday Hammels was somewhere in the -240 range. About 90% of the public backed him ml and rl yet number dropped a little. 2 reasons, big money was on Houston and they wanted more public Philly action. Hammels gets lit up and people like you get wiped out.

[brahmabull117]

Have you ever ran a book? Have you ever sat in a gaming ops meeting when they are discussing revenues from each department? If you can't answer yes to either, kindly shut the fuk up. Public plays are usually the same plays that fill up the sucker bet parlay and teaser cards so it is always in the casinos best interest for the public to lose. The business is always going to thrive. Sports bettors come and go. They don't give 2 shits if some jerkoff like you goes on a hot streak betting heavy favorites. A day or two of the popular faves getting beat and you are gone and another schmuck takes your place. Horses are what keep the books afloat with the guaranteed %. Here is an example of how the books take public money: Yesterday Hammels was somewhere in the -240 range. About 90% of the public backed him ml and rl yet number dropped a little. 2 reasons, big money was on Houston and they wanted more public Philly action. Hammels gets lit up and people like you get wiped out.

you fukking idiot, I'm not telling you that sportsbooks don't make a lot of money


what the reality is that sportsbooks make a lot of money on juice. They don't want the public to get crushed because that's not a profitable business strategy long term. People get crushed, people get discouraged and they stop betting


they want the public to slowly bleed to death by hitting about 50% and losing money on the juice long term. That's how you make money as a sportsbook



and you take about the houston bet last night, well the public bet a lot of money on the tigers as well. So that's your 50% right there

[rfr3sh]

See the bears and redskins

[Grits n' Gravy]

you fukking idiot, I'm not telling you that sportsbooks don't make a lot of money


what the reality is that sportsbooks make a lot of money on juice. They don't want the public to get crushed because that's not a profitable business strategy long term. People get crushed, people get discouraged and they stop betting

they want the public to slowly bleed to death by hitting about 50% and losing money on the juice long term. That's how you make money as a sportsbook
and you take about the houston bet last night, well the public bet a lot of money on the tigers as well. So that's your 50% right there

It is apparent you are an amateur who knows nothing of how the gaming industry works. The public you speak of(and based off your posts you are certainly a part of) are like sheep. They get led to the slaughter and a new crop is ready to take their place. Few people who lose often stop betting. Look at Brock. Houston was a 6 figure win minimal at the big casinos. Tigers were a wash as many took Chi rl. Books make a majority of their revenue off parlay and teaser cards, not juice. The vig washes itself on many of the games over the weekends. You have never run a legal or illegal book so kindly go upstairs and tell your mom I will be buy to stick in her snatch in 2 hours. Tell her to clean that stink box and lock her dumbass kid in the basement so I'm not disturbed.

[Tech N9ne]

Brahma YOU are part of the public

[brahmabull117]

It is apparent you are an amateur who knows nothing of how the gaming industry works. The public you speak of(and based off your posts you are certainly a part of) are like sheep. They get led to the slaughter and a new crop is ready to take their place. Few people who lose often stop betting. Look at Brock. Houston was a 6 figure win minimal at the big casinos. Tigers were a wash as many took Chi rl. Books make a majority of their revenue off parlay and teaser cards, not juice. The vig washes itself on many of the games over the weekends. You have never run a legal or illegal book so kindly go upstairs and tell your mom I will be buy to stick in her snatch in 2 hours. Tell her to clean that stink box and lock her dumbass kid in the basement so I'm not disturbed.

listen son, I've picked more winners in the last 4 days of betting than you have probably picked in the last 4 weeks so I need you to kindly stfu and get the fukk out

[Full Time Hobo]

You have never run a legal or illegal book so kindly go upstairs and tell your mom I will be buy to stick in her snatch in 2 hours. Tell her to clean that stink box and lock her dumbass kid in the basement so I'm not disturbed.

[crustyme]

no wonder this homo goes broke every week and stays away for a month out of embarassment.

[imp4pdabest]

Y'all be going at it in these threads, lol.

[Grits n' Gravy]

listen son, I've picked more winners in the last 4 days of betting than you have probably picked in the last 4 weeks so I need you to kindly stfu and get the fukk out

If you say so. Leave the money upstairs for me. I don't bang your mom for free,

[konck]

It's simple...what do all gamblers have in common?
They Lose....so FADE

[pattymayo]

no wonder this homo goes broke every week and stays away for a month out of embarassment.

it's pretty funny if you search his username in the search box and look at his posting activity, you'll see 50+ posts a day for about a week, then no activity for two weeks, then 50 more posts/threads, then he's gone... why is that exactly, brahmabull, since you're such an excellent capper and pick so many winners?

[dante1]

you fukking idiot, I'm not telling you that sportsbooks don't make a lot of money


what the reality is that sportsbooks make a lot of money on juice. They don't want the public to get crushed because that's not a profitable business strategy long term. People get crushed, people get discouraged and they stop betting


they want the public to slowly bleed to death by hitting about 50% and losing money on the juice long term. That's how you make money as a sportsbook



and you take about the houston bet last night, well the public bet a lot of money on the tigers as well. So that's your 50% right there

This guy has something based on fact. I can't speak for Vegas but I do know the local trade inside out. Locals are not crazy about huge players for three very valid reasons. First, they can hurt them. Second, they mostly likely will lose a ton and the book loses a player. Third, they will bet for a short time lose big and stick the book.

A local book is very happy with the small to moderate player because he keeps coming back. One of the biggest books in a northeastern state wanted $50 and $100 players and even $25 because they came back every day and every week for years and decades and longer. The local book makes money on the number of players he has. If each player is betting moderately he need not worry about laying off and he eats the vig every day.

Guys, I am not guessing about this, it is fact.

[sweethook]

give me a fukin winner bull

[brahmabull117]

Alright I'm gonna settle this horsesht debate right now. Here's a website that shows the public betting splits for football this last week

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NFL.html

Monday Night game


Patriots - 82% of public was on their spread, 74% was on the over - both were winners
Raiders - 42% was on the spread, 68% on the over - 1 -1 record


Sunday Games


Jets - 53% on the spread, 58% on the over - 1 - 1 record
Lions - 68% on the spread, 67% on the over - 2 - 0 record
Steelers - 68% on the spread, 50% total - 0 - 1 record
Texans - 57% on the spread, 57% on over - 1 - 1 record
Falcons - 74% on the spread, close to even on total - 0 - 1 record
Eagles - 70% on the spread, 77% on the over - 1-0 record (Over was a push)
Titans - 78% on the spread, Even total - 1-0 record
Cardinals - 77% on the spread, 64% over - 1-0 record as spread was a push



do I need to keep going here?? where is the huge advantage in betting against the public??

[DrStale]

Alright I'm gonna settle this horsesht debate right now. Here's a website that shows the public betting splits for football this last week

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NFL.html

Monday Night game


Patriots - 82% of public was on their spread, 74% was on the over - both were winners
Raiders - 42% was on the spread, 68% on the over - 1 -1 record


Sunday Games


Jets - 53% on the spread, 58% on the over - 1 - 1 record
Lions - 68% on the spread, 67% on the over - 2 - 0 record
Steelers - 68% on the spread, 50% total - 0 - 1 record
Texans - 57% on the spread, 57% on over - 1 - 1 record
Falcons - 74% on the spread, close to even on total - 0 - 1 record
Eagles - 70% on the spread, 77% on the over - 1-0 record (Over was a push)
Titans - 78% on the spread, Even total - 1-0 record
Cardinals - 77% on the spread, 64% over - 1-0 record as spread was a push



do I need to keep going here?? where is the huge advantage in betting against the public??

First thing that sticks out to me is how you still have no clue what sample size is. Take your bike down to the local community college and sign up for a stats class.

[HoulihansTX]

Brahma.you are the least creative poster in the history SBR.

Its the same predictable thought process every thread...

[WvGambler]

Don't any of you have jobs?

[brahmabull117]

First thing that sticks out to me is how you still have no clue what sample size is. Take your bike down to the local community college and sign up for a stats class.

I can do this for baseball, basketball and college football...hell any sport you like, any week you like and I guarantee you the numbers will come out to about 2-5% standard deviation of 50%

[MartinBlank]

Alright I'm gonna settle this horsesht debate right now. Here's a website that shows the public betting splits for football this last week

http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NFL.html

Monday Night game
Patriots - 82% of public was on their spread, 74% was on the over - both were winners
Raiders - 42% was on the spread, 68% on the over - 1 -1 record
Sunday Games
Jets - 53% on the spread, 58% on the over - 1 - 1 record
Lions - 68% on the spread, 67% on the over - 2 - 0 record
Steelers - 68% on the spread, 50% total - 0 - 1 record
Texans - 57% on the spread, 57% on over - 1 - 1 record
Falcons - 74% on the spread, close to even on total - 0 - 1 record
Eagles - 70% on the spread, 77% on the over - 1-0 record (Over was a push)
Titans - 78% on the spread, Even total - 1-0 record
Cardinals - 77% on the spread, 64% over - 1-0 record as spread was a push

do I need to keep going here?? where is the huge advantage in betting against the public??

There ya have it--- a sample size of 10. That proves everything.....

[brahmabull117]

There ya have it--- a sample size of 10. That proves everything.....

how can there be so many utterly retarded people on one website??



do you want me to do college football for week 1??


how about pro football any week of last year???

[pattymayo]

how can there be so many utterly retarded people on one website??



do you want me to do college football for week 1??


how about pro football any week of last year???

yes do it prove your point !!!

[lakerboy]

Don't any of you have jobs?

[JGILL50]

Alright I'm gonna settle this horsesht debate right now. Here's a website that shows the public betting splits for football this last week http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NFL.html Monday Night game Patriots - 82% of public was on their spread, 74% was on the over - both were winners Raiders - 42% was on the spread, 68% on the over - 1 -1 record Sunday Games Jets - 53% on the spread, 58% on the over - 1 - 1 record Lions - 68% on the spread, 67% on the over - 2 - 0 record Steelers - 68% on the spread, 50% total - 0 - 1 record Texans - 57% on the spread, 57% on over - 1 - 1 record Falcons - 74% on the spread, close to even on total - 0 - 1 record Eagles - 70% on the spread, 77% on the over - 1-0 record (Over was a push) Titans - 78% on the spread, Even total - 1-0 record Cardinals - 77% on the spread, 64% over - 1-0 record as spread was a push do I need to keep going here?? where is the huge advantage in betting against the public??

is this website even trusted?