Official Streak for the Cash discussion thread

[ThaddeusB]

OK, the research is in and both unders are substantial favorites in my opinion. Its pretty clear that the SM just looked up last year and set the totals based on that. 11 home runs have won the final round only twice in the last 10 years (and never more than 11). Additionally only 27/140 individual rounds have gone over 10.5. Conclusion: under is a massive favorite.

Average second round total is 27.2 with under 30.5 going 7-3. A possible cautionary factor is that Chase Field is #5 in HRs this year. However it was only #12 last year and #14 in 2009, and just a smidge above average both years, so I don't think it is really that HR friendly. Conclusion: Under is a small-medium favorite.

I have included the first round averages for each year, although there doesn't really seem to be any correlation between rounds. That tells me there is a huge amount of luck involved here. (Not: both the 8.88 averages were highly skewed by one gut hitting into the upper 20s. Both freak occurrences, since the 3rd highest round total in the last 10 years is 17.)


2010
30 in r2
11 last round winner
4/14 over 10.5
6.13 1st rd avg

2009
25 in r2
6 last round winner
2/14 over 10.5
5.75 1st rd avg

2008
26 in r2 (1 player didn't use all outs)
5 last round winner
1/14 over 10.5
8.88 1st rd avg

2007
38 in r2
3 last round winner
1/14 over 10.5
3.88 1st rd avg

2006
21 in r2
5 last round winner
1/14 over 10.5
7.13 1st rd avg

2005
21 in r2
11 last round winner
4/14 over 10.5
8.88 1st rd avg

2004
33 in r2
5 last round winner
1/14 over 10.5
5.75 1st rd avg

2003
35 in r2
9 last round winner
3/14 over 10.5
4.25 1st rd avg

2002
21 in r2
7 last round winner
2/14 over 10.5
5.34 1st rd avg

2001
22 in r2
6 last round winner
1/14 over 10.5
4.5 1st rd avg


P.S. Every year except for last year there has been at least one tie in the first round, usually 2 or 3, so "or tie" is worth quite a bit.

[yisman]

I must have been looking at the wrong thing when I looked at the golf odds because I remember it being -150 or something like that. I wasn't really looking closely though because I was definitely not picking it anyway b/c of the length.

This I am certain about. I never pick anything without carefully checking odds.

Pinnacle had Stricker -277 and Field at +230 and change. Bodog and other books had -400 (you can see this from the comments, which repeatedly cite the -400 number, although -400 of course is not close to fair odds).

"At Bodog Stricker is 1/4 favorite which means for every $4 bet you win 1$...which would be a -400 favorite if I'm not mistaken."

"it's nearly worthless to post odds on him winning. What's important is odds that he doesn't win, which is currently +232 at pinnacle. definitely the best pick of the day. I was going to pick Portland in soccer, but going with Stricker now."

5 Dimes had a similar price to Pinnacle, as is typical. Stricker -262 according to the comments.

Beltran was ~52% H/W/SO in his career and the pitcher was ~52% H/W/SO in his career as well, so looked like H/W/SO was a minuscule favorite to me.

I'll concede this one because I based it off Accuscore mostly, which had 1.9/4.1 H/W/K IIRC. I didn't go through the stats like I should've.

As far as the HR prop goes, the one pitcher was about .08 HR/inning and the other .09 HR/inning. Low numbers, but you were getting 4 innings, so EV was .68 before factoring in other things. If we say those numbers equate to 93% and 92% no HR/inning (allowing a slight increase form the raw numbers since its possible to hit 2HR in 1 inning) its 53% to no. I figured the heart of both lineups would be up in the 6th when the pitchers were starting to tire, so that pushed it to yes for me. I didn't think to factor in the park, which probably puts no back at a clear favorite.

I am pretty certain that if there were betting offered, no would've been at least -130.



RE: Holliday prop

I think Holliday +.5 should be at least -130.

[ROYAJA8]

I don't like any of the baseball props gonna have to stick with soccer and Argentina. They sucked it up first two games but now it's Showtime for them VS a weak costa rica and their B squad. GL on your picks guys. hopefully one of us can get to that 27 wins.

[ThaddeusB]

This I am certain about. I never pick anything without carefully checking odds.

Certainly. I was obviously looking at the wrong thing on Stricker.

I am pretty certain that if there were betting offered, no would've been at least -130.

Yah, I agree. AT&T Park is dead last in HR this year and was 20th last year (well below average). With park effect, no was definitely the favorite.

RE: Holliday prop

I think Holliday +.5 should be at least -130.

Yah, I'm going Holliday, under, under tonight. 2/3 are the streak %age underdogs, so its probably make it or break it for me tonight.

[yisman]

Argentina is about -1.5 -200 tonight, but I think I'm going to pass. Their performance thus far has made me nervous.

I am considering taking the second over/under and going under, but I'll be out tonight so I won't be able to do the kind of looking that I like to do.

[lordswing]

I have to take Argentina, getting steamed is a little worrying but I'm not confident at all in those derby props.

Sbet has the total HRs for the FIRST round only, but I think you can guestimate some numbers (SBET is far, FAR from the sharpest book)

I took the "even" number from what the juice is telling me (i.e. Gonzalez O/U 4.5 is -125/-115, 4.5 for him, and yes, I know you can't have a half a homer)
Gonzalez - 4.5 HRs
Ortiz - 8 HRs
Bautista - 9 HRs
Holliday - 6 HRs
Kemp - 5.5 HRs
Fielder - 8.5 HRs
Weeks - 4 HRs
Cano - 5 HRs

Top 4 advancing would then be - Bautista/Ortiz/Fielder/Holliday
1st Round Projections were Bautista's 9, Ortiz's 8, Fielder's 8.5, Holliday's 6
9+8+8.5+6=31.5, which is really close to SM's 30.5. You could say some batters get exhausted, or some get into a groove, idk. Nothing really stands out to me. I might take the Over for the final if Argentina wasn't staring me in the face.

[yisman]

Frustrating night. I like to be home so I can check this stuff, but I was out at a stupid family event and it took forever to get out of there. Missed soccer by 5 minutes.

[yisman]

Got frustrated and picked under 10.5

adrian gonzalez burying my streak.

[ThaddeusB]

I have to take Argentina, getting steamed is a little worrying but I'm not confident at all in those derby props.

Sbet has the total HRs for the FIRST round only, but I think you can guestimate some numbers (SBET is far, FAR from the sharpest book)

I took the "even" number from what the juice is telling me (i.e. Gonzalez O/U 4.5 is -125/-115, 4.5 for him, and yes, I know you can't have a half a homer)
Gonzalez - 4.5 HRs
Ortiz - 8 HRs
Bautista - 9 HRs
Holliday - 6 HRs
Kemp - 5.5 HRs
Fielder - 8.5 HRs
Weeks - 4 HRs
Cano - 5 HRs

Top 4 advancing would then be - Bautista/Ortiz/Fielder/Holliday
1st Round Projections were Bautista's 9, Ortiz's 8, Fielder's 8.5, Holliday's 6
9+8+8.5+6=31.5, which is really close to SM's 30.5. You could say some batters get exhausted, or some get into a groove, idk. Nothing really stands out to me. I might take the Over for the final if Argentina wasn't staring me in the face.

It the EV of the top 4 was 30.5, then under 30.5 was definitely the favorite. First, it was nearly certain that at least one of the four wouldn't make it, thus reducing the EV. Second, if one of the leaders won the random draw to go last, that would also reduce the EV because that guy would stop batting as soon as he made it.

As it happened, two of the top 4 didn't make it, reducing the EV to 26, but one of the two guys who were way behind went last. Then, of course, they hit exactly 31. If Cano or Gonzalaz had batted last, the total would've been significantly less.

[ThaddeusB]

Well that sucked.

60% on the leaderboard was Ortiz, so I gained there, but 70% were on over 30.5, so I lost groudn overall. About 90% were on u10.5.

I get the smallest favorite of the three and lose the bigger two. Geez. And I stand by my analysis that u10.5 was about as big of a favorite as one ever sees on SFTC.

[ThaddeusB]

For tomorrow morning, any other cyclist is again a nicefavorite.

25-26% for Cavendish
7% for Hagen
6% for Gilbert

Leaving 61% or so for the field.

Not sure if you can get that and the 11am soccer in, but AOC is a larger favorite than PLzen anyway, so it doesn't hurt to try.

[lordswing]

It the EV of the top 4 was 30.5, then under 30.5 was definitely the favorite. First, it was nearly certain that at least one of the four wouldn't make it, thus reducing the EV. Second, if one of the leaders won the random draw to go last, that would also reduce the EV because that guy would stop batting as soon as he made it.

1 - I would love to see "nearly certain" handicapped. It's also "nearly certain" that some players would underachieve, others would overachieve.
2 - Maybe, maybe not. I would certainly stop hitting homers if I was last and was guaranteed to advance since I would have to go first in the 2nd round, but the event is for the fans. I could also think to myself that I'm interrupting my groove if I start belting 7 or 8 in a row and still have 5 strikes left.

I'm definitely not the greatest capper or Streaker, I just think a lot of these are hypotheticals. I limit myself to finding odds and taking big favorites, that's all. I don't know enough to model or handicap these props myself if Pinny isn't offering them. I probably shouldn't have posted 1st round totals and extrapolated those totals from a shitty rec best, but it was the best I could find.

For tomorrow morning, any other cyclist is again a nicefavorite.

25-26% for Cavendish
7% for Hagen
6% for Gilbert

Leaving 61% or so for the field.

Not sure if you can get that and the 11am soccer in, but AOC is a larger favorite than PLzen anyway, so it doesn't hurt to try.

61% is roughly -150, Plzen is ~-144.

Not picking on you, I wish more posters would help out with the props.

That said, tomorrow looks pretty mediocre, AOC/Plzen/Chile are the best so far, but hardly great picks (-150/-144/-144) and you can only get 2 of those 3.

[yisman]

AOC is a better pick, IMO.

It looks like it's ending after 11:10, though, but oh well.

[ThaddeusB]

1 - I would love to see "nearly certain" handicapped. It's also "nearly certain" that some players would underachieve, others would overachieve.
2 - Maybe, maybe not. I would certainly stop hitting homers if I was last and was guaranteed to advance since I would have to go first in the 2nd round, but the event is for the fans. I could also think to myself that I'm interrupting my groove if I start belting 7 or 8 in a row and still have 5 strikes left.

Unfortunately, I don't have the exact odds anymore, but several books offered "to advance" odds. Going strictly from memory, Bautista was around -180, Fielder -160, Ortiz -150, and Holiday -120. Using those odds and ignoring juice, there was a 87% at least 1 wouldn't make it.

Under probably wasn't a 70%-30% favorite the 7-3 record form the last 10 years suggested, but I think it was a 60% favorite. And remember I am/was playing strictly for wins so any degree of favorite was good by me.

Oh, and people have quit early in past years once they were in the final.

61% is roughly -150, Plzen is ~-144.

Not picking on you, I wish more posters would help out with the props.

That said, tomorrow looks pretty mediocre, AOC/Plzen/Chile are the best so far, but hardly great picks (-150/-144/-144) and you can only get 2 of those 3.

The best odds available on Plzen is -133 currently, so the no juice price would be a bit worse than that presumably, whereas the -156 (61%) is a no-juice price. That said, the cycling prop is only marginally better and no where near the giveaway they had 2 days ago.

And you are right, there are no big favorite on the board tomorrow The 97% on Valletta are picking a 50-50 game. And the 97% on Mexico +1.5 are only marginally better.

[ThaddeusB]

BTW, Yisman, I give your 9 a 50-50 chance of holding up (i.e. being tied at best) so don't feel too bad.

[craigpb]

Some great research; no wonder I keep losing.

[lordswing]

Unfortunately, I don't have the exact odds anymore, but several books offered "to advance" odds. Going strictly from memory, Bautista was around -180, Fielder -160, Ortiz -150, and Holiday -120. Using those odds and ignoring juice, there was a 87% at least 1 wouldn't make it.

Yeah, to advance odds would've been helpful, I was only working with the totals I found. Even with the 87% chance one doesn't make it, doesn't that kind of mean someone will have to overachieve? This is really really specific and pretty much meaningless, but Holliday's 6 vs. Kemps 5.5 is roughly the same. So the 2nd round totals would've dropped by .5 right?

Under probably wasn't a 70%-30% favorite the 7-3 record form the last 10 years suggested, but I think it was a 60% favorite. And remember I am/was playing strictly for wins so any degree of favorite was good by me.

Definitely not, sample sizes these small are meaningless.

Oh, and people have quit early in past years once they were in the final.

I just remember Hamilton belting 28 in the first round and losing the derby, so while it's probably best to give up after you're guaranteed to advance, this is a show for the fans etc.

The best odds available on Plzen is -133 currently, so the no juice price would be a bit worse than that presumably, whereas the -156 (61%) is a no-juice price. That said, the cycling prop is only marginally better and no where near the giveaway they had 2 days ago.

Yeah, I messed that up, Pinny is so efficient I rarely take out the 4% juice or so when picking for SftC. No vig is -132 atm, like you said, AoC is far superior. But we're talking 3%, I can sit that out.

I'm probably going to pass, Yis going down is definitely a factor for that.

Best of luck streaking

[yisman]

Today really sucks with the timing.

Cycling ends 10 minutes after soccer begins.

Soccer ends 15 minutes after WNBA begins

ugh

[ROYAJA8]

Dam I don't like the picks today. Im thinkin of picking Chile or Seattle in WNBA. Whats your guys thoughts?

[yisman]

Soccer win/draw and then I'll figure out what else to take later. Not really looking down the road with a W1.

[ThaddeusB]

Well AOC came through (just barely), but of course ended too late for 11am soccer which won easily. The odds moved significantly away from Ekranas so Valetta W/D turned into a decent pick. The -9.5 on the WNBA isn't terrible, but it's only -115 no juice (and will be missed by anyone who takes Valetta). Then Chile is the clear pick and its on the All-star game props for me personally most likely, although if one was so included they could take Mexico +1.5 and still get the 8th inning prop in most likely (so trading 3 picks for 2).

[yisman]

^ inclined.

BTW, Yisman, I give your 9 a 50-50 chance of holding up (i.e. being tied at best) so don't feel too bad.

Nah, people are running hot this month. In fact, there's a W8 right now.

If I had been home last night I'm pretty sure I'd have a W10 right now.

Lost my self-control and was just so annoyed about missing another soccer clear winner (after my guy didn't pick for me on Saturday) that I went with the HR derby one even though I knew it couldn't be much more than 60%, and Cano and A-Gone were bashing away in round 2.

[yisman]

It's days like today when I wish they had the forfeit option, so I could get out of a disastrous soccer pick and take WNBA.

[ThaddeusB]

Yeah, to advance odds would've been helpful, I was only working with the totals I found. Even with the 87% chance one doesn't make it, doesn't that kind of mean someone will have to overachieve? This is really really specific and pretty much meaningless, but Holliday's 6 vs. Kemps 5.5 is roughly the same. So the 2nd round totals would've dropped by .5 right?

Yes, it would mean someone would overachieve in the first round, but assuming the o/u were accurate to begin with that wouldn't increase their expected output in the second round.

Definitely not, sample sizes these small are meaningless.

Of course when I am handicapping for real, I am nervous about drawing conclusions even a sample size of 100, but any data is better than no data. Not 100% determinate is not the same thing as useless.

That said, the fact that book don't offer totals on the HRD implies it is very difficult to handicap accurately.

I just remember Hamilton belting 28 in the first round and losing the derby, so while it's probably best to give up after you're guaranteed to advance, this is a show for the fans etc.

Funny you should mention Hamilton. He was actually one of the guys who quit early in the second round with his spot secured. Simply put, I doubt either continuing or stopping early has any effect on the final. I can't imagine a pro athlete tiring out form 10-15 minutes of batting practice.

The odds moved significantly away from Ekranas so Valetta W/D turned into a decent pick.

and of course Ekranas jumps out to a 3-0 lead early. If the odds had stayed 50/50, I probably would have gone with them too, because I like to take the lower streaker % on 50/50 props.

^ inclined.

That was a strange typo on my part.

Nah, people are running hot this month. In fact, there's a W8 right now. If I had been home last night I'm pretty sure I'd have a W10 right now. Lost my self-control and was just so annoyed about missing another soccer clear winner (after my guy didn't pick for me on Saturday) that I went with the HR derby one even though I knew it couldn't be much more than 60%, and Cano and A-Gone were bashing away in round 2.

The W7 is about to go down though... It isn't the pickers who are hot, its that a larger than expected % of -150ish favorites have won.

In past years, there has been almost no correlation between early round scores and the final round total. In 2007, for example, the second round scores were the highest since 1990 and the final round was won by 3 HR (the lowest winning number in my sample). If there were book odds, I am confident the winner o/u would've been around 7. Under 10.5 was a huge favorite. Perhaps 8/10 under isn't significant but 111/140 is, and keep in mind if the first guy up had hit 9 or less under had already won. So the prop was really will the first guy hit 11+, or 10 with the second guy hitting 11. That prop has a lot lower odds than "if both guys use all outs will the higher go over 10.5".

Of course favorites don't always win. In fact, even -1000 favorites lose every day. Back when tradesports was still in business, I kept track for awhile and almost every day I contract would trade at 99 or 1 and then close at 0 or 100. (For those who don't know, tradesports was an exchange that did all contracts on a 0-100 scale, such that "1" in theory meant the team had 1% to win the game at that point, "50" meant they had 50%, and so on.)

Thaddeus

[ThaddeusB]

It's days like today when I wish they had the forfeit option, so I could get out of a disastrous soccer pick and take WNBA.

I forfeit option would certainly make things more interesting/strategic.

[yisman]

Ugh, normally I have Accuscore to look at for props. They don't simulate the AS Game, though.

I guess I have to go for more picks now, so no WNBA, even though the total is two points off.

[ThaddeusB]

Weaver gets a SO is a big favorite. About 21% of his outs are SO, which equates to 64% chance for at least 1 SO in 3 outs. The icing on the cake, though, is that the top of the NL order is SO prone. True odds are between 65 and 70%, IMO.

0 home runs in 4-6 should be the favorite since they are only giving 3 innings, but it depend on who will be up to some degree, obviously.

0 runs in 8th is -160 pregame.

[MexicanStallion]

I finally got my sorry streak up to 4. I think I'm done for the day.

[yisman]

Thad, saw your post too late, but luckily did go with K

[ThaddeusB]

0 home runs in 4-6 should be the favorite since they are only giving 3 innings, but it depend on who will be up to some degree, obviously.

Well that was weird. 1 HIT in the first 3 innings and then 2 HOME RUNS (and 7 hits total) in the 4th.

Late now, but by my very rough calculation no HR was only a 53-47 favorite. (Interestingly, most of the top of the win leaderboard went with no, despite being the overall streak % underdog.)

[yisman]

I took yes because the power hitters were coming up.

Although in an All Star Game, the part of the order means less than it would in a normal game.

[yisman]

laying off even though no run should be a pretty good fave

weird stuff with the lines

no run is -185 at 5 dimes, but over 6.5 is -145. All that adds is the top of the 9th. So for the top of the 9th, you have such a big discrepancy?

No time to try and figure out how to exploit it, but I believe one or both of those lines is not correct.

-145 was the pinnacle line for over, btw. Bodog has -165 and DSI had -155. Higher juice.

[yisman]

another interesting one:

under 6.5 -145 middle 8th

no runs bottom 8th, and it goes to under -340

so one inning left is -145 no run and a half inning is -340? Doesn't seem quite right

[ThaddeusB]

another interesting one:

under 6.5 -145 middle 8th

no runs bottom 8th, and it goes to under -340

so one inning left is -145 no run and a half inning is -340? Doesn't seem quite right

My guess would be a book imbalance existed at the time. In live-running markets, books are generally more concerned with minimizing their risk (or preferably looking in guaranteed profit) than pricing the market perfectly since in-game things are so hard to price anyway.

Incidentally, live-running is generally very arbable/exploitable if you have several outs and are fast.

[ThaddeusB]

Cavendish is ~-128 no juice against the field and tomorrow there are no timing issues to worry about.