Official Streak for the Cash discussion thread

[yisman]

16-7 game somehow unlocks in under 3 hours, 5 minutes.

[yisman]

Fri 7/15 209 Lee Westwood (2nd Rnd) -½ -109
4:09AM 210 Steve Stricker (2nd Rnd) +½ -111


Cycling: 8.55+7.69+5.88=22.12% was my approximation of the chances of one of those three winning, using Betfair odds.

[ThaddeusB]

16-7 game somehow unlocks in under 3 hours, 5 minutes.

Yah, that was crazy. I was really hoping the leaderboard would be locked out of the late game allowing me to gain one. (I'm currently playing for a streak, but it doesn't hurt to root against the leaders.) They all managed to get Texas in and its looks like Texas will win easy.

Still, I got my W5.

[ThaddeusB]

Cycling: 8.55+7.69+5.88=22.12% was my approximation of the chances of one of those three winning, using Betfair odds.

Was about to post the same thing. I got 8.5, 8.1, 5.4 so I I guess they moved slightly since you posted. Either way, AOC is as big a favorite (-355) as one will ever find on STFC. Anyone not taking it is crazy or not paying attention.

[lordswing]

hopefully AoC unlocks in time for German soccer, otherwise the pickings are slim today, the Rays are the closest to being a pick for me. i'm not sure it will unlock though, they started 2 hours later for some reason (that i'm not bothering to look up)

[yisman]

Streak often posts the wrong times for cycling. They've never been good with timezones.

[ThaddeusB]

Berlin W/D was another excellent opportunity (~-190 no juice), so I wasted no time putting my W6 on the line. If that wins, I'm probably done for the day, although I haven't completely ruled out Tampa Bay. If it loses, obviously I will take every game to try and start a new streak.

Thaddeus

[yisman]

Your post reminds me of the PMs I send to the guy who makes my picks while I'm away.

Good start with UB striking first.

[ThaddeusB]

Got my W7. Looks like I had to survive a penalty kick in injury time to do it. Obviously, I skipped the near 50-50 Dublin game (would have taken Dublin +1.5 if forced to make a choice). Now I just have to decide if I want TB at ~-150 no juice or wait for something better.

Incidentally, I am actually 13th on the monthly win leaderboard. But, at 8 wins back it would be a real long shot. (Its hard to gain ground since most games all the leaders picks the favorite.) The #1 is 3 up on second, which is a pretty significant edge actually. Dublin would've been an opportunity as 1,2,4, and a couple others above me went with Dundalk. Two guys ahead of me didn't pick the game at all, possibly because the golf match wasn't over yet... If you were going for wins and went golf-golf instead of cycling-soccer, you are a real idiot.

[ThaddeusB]

Wow, what a weird game Dublin/Dundalk turned out to be. Goal in injury time in the 1st half (penalty kick), goal in injury time second half, 2-0 final.

[ThaddeusB]

Peeking ahead at tomorrow, ESPN has some serious errors... Columbia is -300 to advance which is what the prop is. To be semi-balanced it should be Columbia win or Peru w/d in regulation. Interestingly enough, they already chaged it once - it used to be +1.5/-1.5, which was equally off, but in the other direction (hence the weird %age). Gotta LOL at ESPN's stupidity sometimes.

Uruguay +1.5 and any other cyclist are large favorites as well, but the then you come to LA Galaxy +2.5. Asian handicaps aren't up on the game yet, but Madrid is only a -300 favorite SU, so +2.5 has got to be -300 or better.

If ESPN doesn't change things, there will be some real easy picks tomorrow!

[yisman]

It was set up perfectly for win vs. win/draw.

For whatever reason, lately on the ones that go to extra time/pks, they haven't been willing to do props for only 90 minutes. A few pages ago I posted about where they listed win,draw,lose by 1 for one side, it was tied after regulation, and the favorite won by 2 after extra time. They scored it as a win by 2, and then removed the "draw" in the pick for a similar later pick.

For ones where the favorite ML is anywhere near what Colombia is, you shouldn't be doing it as +1.5 or to advance, as Thaddeus indicated.

[ThaddeusB]

It was set up perfectly for win vs. win/draw.

For whatever reason, lately on the ones that go to extra time/pks, they haven't been willing to do props for only 90 minutes. A few pages ago I posted about where they listed win,draw,lose by 1 for one side, it was tied after regulation, and the favorite won by 2 after extra time. They scored it as a win by 2, and then removed the "draw" in the pick for a similar later pick.

For ones where the favorite ML is anywhere near what Colombia is, you shouldn't be doing it as +1.5 or to advance, as Thaddeus indicated.

I notice they changed the Argentina game to be against AOR instead of "win. draw, lose by one". I guess they've made a decision that regulation time only props are too confusing for players (or their staff ). This makes the prop not directly comparable to +1.5 ... I would think the odds must be slightly better to win by 2+ at any time compared to just regulation. Still, AOR/Uruguay is the clear favorite.

[lordswing]

Columbia's dropped from -300 "you're an idiot to not pick them" to -250 "they're still really big stinkin favs"

[Jackie Moon]

What's everybody think for 4 est I was thinking angles

[ThaddeusB]

Damn it! I skipped 2 solid picks (both winners) to save my streak for the Columbia give away and the clowns let in 2 in OT. Bye Bye W7.

At least I'm in good company - ESPN wide #1 & #2 longest streaks and most of SBR also went down on the game.

[ThaddeusB]

ESPN wised up and (finally) changed Real Madrid/LA Galaxy to -1.5/+1.5 from the -2.5/+2.5 giveaway it was.

[lordswing]

i should stop ignoring line movement

[yisman]

Oh well...

as for them changing it, nice of them to actually change it before this time instead of screwing everyone.

Had it continued to say win,draw,lose by 1 and Argentina won by 2 in extra time, they'd grade it in favor of Argentina anyway, like they did the last time.

[yisman]

both late games were pick'ems. Too bad. Flipped between Seattle and Galaxy. Ended up going Galaxy, who never had a chance.

Cavendish is like -136 no vig or so.


Golf is probably close to a toss-up, but I didn't closely examine the odds as there's no reason for me to take it anyway. It'll lock out the early afternoon picks.

[MexicanStallion]

I'm throwing in the towel here. I cannot win this contest and never will. I think I had 3 runner ups over the year and a half we have started this. That's about it. Now I'm not even closer to being a factor in this. Let me know who wants to take over, so the non pros can transfer to you instead of me. I think I have a few points ready for August, so I'll add it up and send it over.

[yisman]

I'm throwing in the towel here. I cannot win this contest and never will. I think I had 3 runner ups over the month and a half we have started this.

Year and a half.

I guess I'll do it if no one else wants to.

Any chance for a list of past winners?

[lordswing]

Cavendish better have a history of owning this stage, the Greek doesn't even have odds for him

wow liquidity is awful on betfair, i'm tempted to stick with AoC...

[MexicanStallion]

February
H-Bomb W9 (340)
March
17ustin W11 (400)
April
Losturmarbles W11 (360)
May
Lordswing W15 (340)
June
HustleGetPaid W11 (280)
July
Cabo W13 (280)
August
Yisman W11 (220)
September
Optional W10 (340)
October
Revnecro1273 W10 (400)
November
MikeJamm W10 (400)
December
HustleGetPaid W12 (340)

January
Bigslick345 W7 (330)
February
Brooks85 W10 (620)
March
Craigpb W11 (500)
April
Sonyman W10 (500)
May
StraitShooter W11 (500)
June
Yisman W10 (400)

385 Avg
10.7 Streak

[craigpb]

Cavendish has been money so far; have to go with him.

[yisman]

thanks

[ThaddeusB]

Wow, January must have been brutal if a W7 took it. (I played SFTC regularly a long time ago, but only restarted playing midway through June, so I don't personally know.)

[ThaddeusB]

Cavendish better have a history of owning this stage, the Greek doesn't even have odds for him

wow liquidity is awful on betfair, i'm tempted to stick with AoC...

Cavendish has a history of owning all sprint stages.

He's -142 no juice at Betfair now. Best price I see at any regular book is -149 (which obviously includes juice). -142 against a field of 190+. Think about that means re:his domination.

Thaddeus

[yisman]

I'm actually surprised. I thought we had more months when low streaks won it but it was double digits every time except twice.

Not so great for me either, although many of course had it worse. I entered every month. Usually was very close.

[yisman]

Cavendish wins.

No afternoon baseball on sftc. Pretty funny. Guess they want to let USA/Japan and golf (both on ESPN) rule the afternoon, so pickers will watch that rather than baseball. In the past, they let stuff compete with ESPN games, but not today I guess.

Another soccer failure by posting USA/Japan full time rather than USA -.5 90 minutes, but we've already discussed this and they refuse to do 90 minutes. Here, they have extra motivation because since it's actually on ESPN, they want people to keep watching if it's tied after 90.


also:

TylerO16
USA needs to win this to avenge pearl harbor

[yisman]

well, that was wildly inconvenient. Guest staying off, comes at exactly the wrong time, so I miss the 2 minute window for getting the pick in.

[lordswing]

SM ****** up the soccer game, doubt it matters though since Canada will just roll over I'm sure

[yisman]

Vancouver scores first! Wonder what the odds were on that.

[yisman]

Chavanel is the only AOC from the top favorites. Wide-open stage, but three countries looks pretty good here.



Phillipe Gilbert
8.6

8.8

Thor Hushovd
13.5

15

Sylvain Chavanel
21

22

Luis Leon Sanchez Gil
20

25

Samuel Sanchez
19.5

20

Edvald Boasson Hagen
18

21

[craigpb]

Actually have a WNBA game. Tulsa managed to win their only game when they were on STFC. Guessing Chicago will find a way to beat a better Seattle team, even though no more Jackson.