Official Streak for the Cash discussion thread

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 12:23 AM

LOL, just looked at the Chile match summary and it looks like some idiot scored on his own goal in injury time to give Chile the 1-0 win.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 12:35 AM

Other than USA/France, which is dead even at the moment, there are some fairly good looking props for tomorrow.

BTW, the W8 went down today so you are safe for now yisman.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 12:52 AM

Yep saw the match summary and was not happy with the own goal. big streaks on chile

I also check the group a bunch of times to see what to root for

old habit

**MexicanStallion** · 07-13-11, 01:03 AM

July
Yisman (Ronx) W9
ROYAJA8 (Royaja8) W8
Lordswing (Lordswing) W6*
Craigpb (KA) W6
ThaddeusB (GTB38) W5
Cabo (Cabo999) W5
StraitShooter (Jo-Jo Rex) W5
Gobucks (Oriolelee) W4
NeverStoppers23 (LiveStrongForever) W4*
Sonyman (Sonyman) W4
MexicanStallion (TheMexicanStallion) W4*
NYJets15 (NYJets1532) W4
Bigslick345 (Dream Streak) W3
MikeJamm (MikeJamm) W3
Brooks85 (Whodey8503) W3
Hugh_Morris (Billy1856) W3

(320 Points)

**neverstoppers23** · 07-13-11, 01:08 AM

Slowly but surely I am getting there, I took the USA over france tomorrow, after our last victory I think we are going to roar past them. We never lost to France according to ESPN.

**craigpb** · 07-13-11, 09:26 AM

Soccer should be close. France had tons of chances against England, but couldn't finish. US couldn't do anything til the last minute. Might go to extra time.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 12:16 PM

Minnesota -274 down 15-4.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 12:21 PM

Wasn't ready for it, but I should've gone back to my fading the heavy favorites.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Minnesota -274 down 15-4.

I skipped it to get 2 for 1 (USA, then Sweden) since I don't have a streak of note going yet, but it looks like Minnesota may pull it off yet - up 3 late 4th quarter.

EDIT: Nope, they managed to blow it - outscored by 10 in the final 3min at home as a big favorite. Wow. Interestingly, very few of the ESPN wide (current) streak leaders were on Minnesota (-270), but a fair number on are Sweden (-150).

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 02:09 PM

What a trainwreck for anyone who went with the big favorite.

It overlapped with two soccer picks, and the next pick is Copa America at 6:15.

Minnesota won.

I had a W3 on it and 26 points. No big deal, but a little frustrating with almost nothing to pick today.

**MexicanStallion** · 07-13-11, 02:10 PM

I lost with them. I think it's definitely my last month with the contest. I've lost plenty of points for it.

**lordswing** · 07-13-11, 05:47 PM

******* beaver ball

i think next month will be my last, pro status will be up and had no idea you were supposed to maintain a $200 balance, oops. no way i'm giving bookmaker money

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 05:55 PM

ugh, that sucks.

Well, it's that or make a deposit or send $200 to charity through SBR's setup.

I think pro status is well worth it, so I'd do whatever it takes.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 07:07 PM

OMG, Paraguay gives up TWO goals in injury time to cost me a win.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 07:10 PM

that was absurd. No one ahead of me had Paraguay so I could actually root for it to win and they blow it like that.

This week going poorly. Going Brazil next.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 07:41 PM

I'd pretty much already given up on the monthly wins, but amazingly the number one guy was on Venezula W/D despite already having a 2 pick lead on second place. As such, that game was probably the final nail in the coffin for my chances. (Of course I still have to get a streak started before there is any point in not picking every game.)

I went with Manchester United -1.5 as a massive -120 favorite (the best of the 4 picks available odds wise).

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 07:45 PM

2 pick lead isn't much. Why wouldn't he have Venezuela?

**lordswing** · 07-13-11, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by yisman

ugh, that sucks.

Well, it's that or make a deposit or send $200 to charity through SBR's setup.

I think pro status is well worth it, so I'd do whatever it takes.

I just wished I knew about the $200 balance, I'm sure it was mentioned some time, but that caught me off guard. Bookmaker's just not for me, they're great if you can cap your own games and can pounce on opening lines, but you should not play there unless you're banned at all the rec books.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by yisman

2 pick lead isn't much. Why wouldn't he have Venezuela?

The lead is certainly not safe by any means, but mostly because of 50/50 games. On games with a clear favorite, 90% go with the favorite so very little is gained/lost uless you take the dog. Thus it was strange to me that he'd risk giving up a game to the field on a +130 option.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by lordswing

I just wished I knew about the $200 balance, I'm sure it was mentioned some time, but that caught me off guard. Bookmaker's just not for me, they're great if you can cap your own games and can pounce on opening lines, but you should not play there unless you're banned at all the rec books.

I wouldn't say Bookmaker's lines are all that sharp per se - they just suck because off their ridiculous juice compared to other shops.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 08:42 PM

Yep. Unbettable on baseball and soccer.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 09:23 PM

Here's a fun fact for you: I've had 10 streaks of 3 wins this month. If every pick was 50% to win (and no pick was worse than that) then I would be expected to have 2-3 streaks of 5 games and 1 of 6 games. All I have is one of 5. Translation: I've have terrible luck once I get to 3 wins.

**lordswing** · 07-13-11, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by ThaddeusB

I wouldn't say Bookmaker's lines are all that sharp per se - they just suck because off their ridiculous juice compared to other shops.

Yeah, not sharp at all, just a book that has high limits on the major sports. I've picked off some stray lines from time to time (I went busto on some mid-major tourny odds they were offering).

They do have some nice march madness promotions though, you get a free bracket for each grand wagered or something similar. I think I was 2nd or 3rd in their iPad promotion, but they only had a grand prize

2nd place is just the 1st loser after all

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 09:47 PM

On to tomorrow:
Rory McIlroy (1st Rnd) -0.5 -152
Rickie Fowler (1st Rnd) +0.5 +132
(per 5dimes)

Contador 25.3%
Schleck 14.9%
(per betfair no juice price)
59.8% for field = -148

Both should be over before 1pm; neither is likely to be over by 9:21 (and picking the second golf match will lock you out of many later picks anyway).

**lordswing** · 07-13-11, 09:59 PM

Awesome, the Greek has "King of the Mountains" odds up (Contador +300, Schleck +450 with pretty bad juice I'm sure). I wasn't sure if that was Stage 12 winner odds, so those BetFair odds pretty much confirm it.

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 09:59 PM

McIlroy ML is -187 at Pinnacle
Kaymer -133

The matchups posted rarely correspond to Pinnacle's pairs, but this time they do.

AOC is about 60%, from my own calculations I ran about an hour ago from Betfair.

I'm going McIlroy and then soccer, I think.

**Jackie Moon** · 07-13-11, 10:14 PM

Sweed killed me today! I love McIlory for me then I'll kinda get a feel for it later fir soccer.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-13-11, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by yisman

McIlroy ML is -187 at Pinnacle

Do you mean straight up, because he is -195/+168 straight up at 5dimes. The STFC prop is "win" vs. "win or tie" though, hence why I posted the -0.5 price.

Thaddeus

**yisman** · 07-13-11, 10:29 PM

yeah straight up

I understand why -.5 is better to use here. I just always go to Pinnacle first.

**craigpb** · 07-13-11, 11:23 PM

McIlroy usually posts good early round scores so going with it too. Would be surprised if Fowler doesn't have trouble especially if the wind is howling.

**onlooker** · 07-14-11, 12:34 AM

There's a App for that.

**neverstoppers23** · 07-14-11, 12:56 AM

I got a 6 game streak going, i bet on Rory to have a better score. It just seems like too easy of a bet, I hope it doesn't back fire. Just need 4 more picks to reach a streak of 10, and I will have the best streak, more then half way there. Woot!

**ThaddeusB** · 07-14-11, 10:46 AM

I went with AOC based on it being a 1-2% better option based on the numbers I posted above. Looks like Fowler killed almost everyone's streak - better luck next time.

**yisman** · 07-14-11, 12:55 PM

Yep, no vig price said AOC was better pick. I didn't bother double-checking because I thought maybe there was a chance of golf finishing before the second golf pick.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-14-11, 02:49 PM

San Antonio is nearly -200 no vig this evening. If Reykjavik W/D wins, I'll place my W4 on SA. If it losses, I take the Yankees and try to go 2 for 1.