Official Streak for the Cash discussion thread

**ThaddeusB** · 07-08-11, 03:56 PM

Peru W/D is the biggest fav on the board (~ -230 no juice) and only 9% are picking it (right now, will likely go up a bit by game time). Jeter no is ~ -200 no juice. Chile W/D is just under -200 no juice. Shame one can't get all 3, but the Chile/Peru combo is far superior to the Jeter/late baseball game combo.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-08-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by craigpb

Everyone is starting out much slower than last month so far.

That's because most of the "big" (-200 and better) favorites have lost, making it hard to build. The ~ -150 favorites are running way over expectation though.

That and the lower number of participants this month.

**yisman** · 07-08-11, 03:58 PM

Lost 20 bucks betting the University team. Something weird was going on with the lines.

**lordswing** · 07-08-11, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by ThaddeusB

Peru W/D is the biggest fav on the board (~ -230 no juice) and only 9% are picking it (right now, will likely go up a bit by game time). Jeter no is ~ -200 no juice. Chile W/D is just under -200 no juice. Shame one can't get all 3, but the Chile/Peru combo is far superior to the Jeter/late baseball game combo.

you can always hope Jeter goes 2/2 or 2/3 and get a quick green I guess, but that's just as likely as the game going into extra innings and missing out on a mediocre MLB pick

Originally posted by yisman

Lost 20 bucks betting the University team. Something weird was going on with the lines.

How large was the line move? I don't remember seeing Pinny having odds up last night, I just remember checking in the morning, then again when you posted (had already picked Dublin) and saw it moved in my favor. Alarm bells probably should've went off in my head, oh well.

**yisman** · 07-08-11, 05:07 PM

Last night Bray was in the +150s

odds shot up today to make Dublin favored. Bray in the +180s

then, at like 2 PM, they moved again to back around where they were.

re: Jeter

no was a fairly easy call there. But the rain in NYC made the decision for me.

**ThaWoj** · 07-08-11, 06:14 PM

have joey votto going tonight, trying to get to 5-game winning streak. my past 4 wins:

7/07/2011
Adam Lind@CLE 1-for-5
7/06/2011
Chase Headley@SF 1-for-4
7/05/2011
Robinson Cano@CLE 2-for-5
7/04/2011
Adrian Gonzalez vs TOR 1-for-5

**yisman** · 07-08-11, 06:18 PM

I got 5 in a row after I lost due to a missed day. So really 11 in a row. The rules are lame. If you miss a day, you should be able to keep your streak.

**ThaWoj** · 07-08-11, 09:30 PM

yeah thats crap, what they really should do is if you miss a day, your pick should revert to the last successful pick you made. I.E. in my case 2 posts above, if I had forgotten to choose votto tonight, it should automatically give the last successful pick that i made which would be adam lind. isnt that the whole nature of this contest is anyways, based on breaking a single players hitting streak?

btw votto cashes

have carlos santana vs tor and ryan theriot vs ariz to roundout the weekend

**lordswing** · 07-08-11, 11:04 PM

looks to be a soccer filled day, was excited to see football football on the schedule, but pretty much a pk

**craigpb** · 07-08-11, 11:06 PM

Have no idea why Peru got draw too when they were the fav, and naturally everyone picking Mexico despite their youth and getting one of the few results so far.

**revnecro1273** · 07-09-11, 06:24 AM

Originally posted by craigpb

Have no idea why Peru got draw too when they were the fav, and naturally everyone picking Mexico despite their youth and getting one of the few results so far.

no idea why either why espn had them as w/d...but as to why the majority took mexico, they have no clue..they went with the bigger name not knowing anything about this current team

**craigpb** · 07-09-11, 06:06 PM

Looks like a couple finally getting past the 5 mark. Lots of soccer draws helping with that.

**yisman** · 07-09-11, 07:45 PM

Easy soccer today but my guy didn't pick it for me. Bummer.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-10-11, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by revnecro1273

no idea why either why espn had them as w/d...but as to why the majority took mexico, they have no clue..they went with the bigger name not knowing anything about this current team

Probably either because ESPN knew everyone would pick Mexico anyway, or because they were dumb enough to think Mexico should be the favorite.

The underdog quite often gets over 65% on STFC. Not sure if ESPN purposely picks things where people are likely to mislead themselves or not, but it really makes it quite obvious why sportsbooks make money.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-10-11, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Easy soccer today but my guy didn't pick it for me. Bummer.

Yah, I was surprised you didn't go for Paraguay +1.5. That was close to -200 no juice and the line kept moving in their favor as well.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-10-11, 12:44 AM

If anyone sees this in time, any other cyclist is a MASSIVE favorite today (7/10). Gilbert, Voeckler, and Hagen are the top 3, but they only have ~14%, ~6%, and ~5% respective, leaving 75% for the field. That's a -300, which is virtually unheard of in STFC. Its a very wide open stage - 30 people have around 2% each to win.

P.S. I'm still in great shape on the monthly wins leaderboard. Hopefully some at the top are fooled by the cycling prop or go with the toss-up soccer prop.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by ThaddeusB

Yah, I was surprised you didn't go for Paraguay +1.5. That was close to -200 no juice and the line kept moving in their favor as well.

I told him to take it but he didn't.

Not my choice to pass on everything. The win/draw and +1.5 were massive favorites.

SftC messing up with Copa America.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by ThaddeusB

If anyone sees this in time, any other cyclist is a MASSIVE favorite today (7/10). Gilbert, Voeckler, and Hagen are the top 3, but they only have ~14%, ~6%, and ~5% respective, leaving 75% for the field. That's a -300, which is virtually unheard of in STFC. Its a very wide open stage - 30 people have around 2% each to win.

I concur. I used Betfair to approximate no vig odds (using back and lay) and came up with:

14.49 6.25 5.56 for the three, totaling under 26.5%. Can't pass this up, although I don't particularly like taking field vs. the top three favorites.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 10:18 AM

I've been watching and there were five guys in the lead, until a car with an awful driver knocked down Fletcher, causing Hoogerland to hurtle into a fence. Hoogerland was considered the top threat to Voeckler.

No it's Voeckler vs. two others.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 10:59 AM

Sanchez edges Voeckler! He conserved energy by staying third almost the whole way and took his run at the end.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-10-11, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by yisman

I've been watching and there were five guys in the lead, until a car with an awful driver knocked down Fletcher, causing Hoogerland to hurtle into a fence. Hoogerland was considered the top threat to Voeckler.

No it's Voeckler vs. two others.

Was watching the live odds there at the end. Even with just the 3 left, Voeckler was +500ish and Sanchez pulled it off for us.

Almost the entire monthly leader board went with the early soccer game. Unfortunately for me, Sweden came through as a whopping -105 favorite, so I didn't gain on many people. I also missed the USA/Brazil game because cycling took too long. Its not the end of the world because the Yankees are -150 no juice, so as long as that is over by 4pm I'll still get the the same number of picks in without giving up any EV. Hopefully USA will pull the upset now that I couldn't get on Brazil.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 11:08 AM

Voeckler was +500 with only three in it? The talk was that he was the clear favorite with Hoogerland out.

More lopsided props this afternoon.

You got Stricker, Portland, and the Phillies.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 04:43 PM

Heavy favorite Stricker about to go down.

Rookie Kyle Stanley was four strokes down headed into today but has the lead.

Guess I should've gone with Portland. Seattle ML was around +180 at Betfair.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 04:57 PM

And Portland just got red carded and fell apart. Wow.

**yisman** · 07-10-11, 05:16 PM

Truly incredible.

Stricker pulls off a wild comeback, aided by a blown short putt from Stanley, and Portland was up 2-1 in the 74th, but:

goal Montero (Seattle)
red card Portland
PK awarded on the play and converted by Alonso (Seattle)

tough one Thadd

**yisman** · 07-11-11, 12:28 AM

Yearly SftC tradition of picking the HR derby.

Using Pinnacle odds:

Fielder +402, 19.92%
Bautista +276, 26.6%

Combined=46.52%

taking out the vig might make it 44 or 45. Basically, edge to Any Other Player.

Holliday or tie would be the pick in the other prop. At least a 55%er, I think.

No odds to base homer totals on. Unless books post odds for that, you'd have to base it off past years, I guess.

Soccer: both to win teams are favored. -140 to -150 range

Argentina is -145 at Pinnacle to cover -1.5

**ThaddeusB** · 07-11-11, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Voeckler was +500 with only three in it? The talk was that he was the clear favorite with Hoogerland out.

More lopsided props this afternoon.

You got Stricker, Portland, and the Phillies.

Yah, Sanchez was about -125, the other guy was around +250, and Voeckler was +500. No idea why, perhaps because bettors felt Voeckler was content to take the yellow jacket? (These odds were from the final 30k or so - they might have been different earlier.)

Stricker wasn't a huge favorite, but Portland was the best play of the day odds wise.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-11-11, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Truly incredible.

Stricker pulls off a wild comeback, aided by a blown short putt from Stanley, and Portland was up 2-1 in the 74th, but:

goal Montero (Seattle)
red card Portland
PK awarded on the play and converted by Alonso (Seattle)

tough one Thadd

Yah, that was a killer. I happened to take a peak at the live odds and Seattle was +1200 somewhere around the 70th minute, and that's in a highly juiced up live market.

Then I went 0/3 on the SNB props. The first two were almost exactly 50/50 by my calculations and I guess wrong on both. The no run was a clear favorite but also lost.

I'm still on pace (my estimate is 3.5 wins/day to win) for the monthly wins, but only just barely.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-11-11, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by yisman

Yearly SftC tradition of picking the HR derby.

Using Pinnacle odds:

Fielder +402, 19.92%
Bautista +276, 26.6%

Combined=46.52%

taking out the vig might make it 44 or 45. Basically, edge to Any Other Player.

Holliday or tie would be the pick in the other prop. At least a 55%er, I think.

No odds to base homer totals on. Unless books post odds for that, you'd have to base it off past years, I guess.

Soccer: both to win teams are favored. -140 to -150 range

Argentina is -145 at Pinnacle to cover -1.5

I'm still playing for wins right now, so I'm taking the two "win" sides on the early soccer games and then the 3 round-by-round HRD props. 5dimes will likely have some helpful props up tomorrow to go by, even if no one else does. If not, I'll calculate them myself based on past years.

**craigpb** · 07-11-11, 03:24 AM

Good luck. Hopefully you go on a decent streak.

**yisman** · 07-11-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by ThaddeusB

Stricker wasn't a huge favorite, but Portland was the best play of the day odds wise.

Stricker was a huge favorite! Bigger favorite than Portland odds-wise. He was about -270 at Pinnacle. High juice books like Bodog had him at -400.

Downside was that it was a long pick and anyone picking it was trading in two for one.

RE: props

By what I looked at, Beltran AOR should've been a slight favorite based on past results and Accuscore projections, no homer should've definitely been favored considering that neither lineup has much in terms of offense and two guys were pitching who don't allow many homers. Also, SF is an extreme pitcher's park. I estimated 55% no.

No run was like -150 on 5 Dimes (vs. +120 for yes).

**yisman** · 07-11-11, 12:52 PM

Mon 7/11Ortiz vs Holliday - most home runs Rnd 1 05:00 PM317 David Ortiz-120 318 Matt Holliday+103

From Pinnacle. I'd still go with Holliday due to the tie, but the odds are interesting, considering Holliday has shorter odds to win the competition.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-11-11, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Stricker was a huge favorite! Bigger favorite than Portland odds-wise. He was about -270 at Pinnacle. High juice books like Bodog had him at -400.

Downside was that it was a long pick and anyone picking it was trading in two for one.

RE: props

By what I looked at, Beltran AOR should've been a slight favorite based on past results and Accuscore projections, no homer should've definitely been favored considering that neither lineup has much in terms of offense and two guys were pitching who don't allow many homers. Also, SF is an extreme pitcher's park. I estimated 55% no.

No run was like -150 on 5 Dimes (vs. +120 for yes).

I must have been looking at the wrong thing when I looked at the golf odds because I remember it being -150 or something like that. I wasn't really looking closely though because I was definitely not picking it anyway b/c of the length.

Beltran was ~52% H/W/SO in his career and the pitcher was ~52% H/W/SO in his career as well, so looked like H/W/SO was a minuscule favorite to me.

As far as the HR prop goes, the one pitcher was about .08 HR/inning and the other .09 HR/inning. Low numbers, but you were getting 4 innings, so EV was .68 before factoring in other things. If we say those numbers equate to 93% and 92% no HR/inning (allowing a slight increase form the raw numbers since its possible to hit 2HR in 1 inning) its 53% to no. I figured the heart of both lineups would be up in the 6th when the pitchers were starting to tire, so that pushed it to yes for me. I didn't think to factor in the park, which probably puts no back at a clear favorite.

**ThaddeusB** · 07-11-11, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Mon 7/11Ortiz vs Holliday - most home runs Rnd 1 05:00 PM317 David Ortiz-120 318 Matt Holliday+103

From Pinnacle. I'd still go with Holliday due to the tie, but the odds are interesting, considering Holliday has shorter odds to win the competition.

I managed to get 1 win back this morning as the top of the leader board went W/D and Moscow won easily. Helsingborg is also winning easily at the moment, but no gain against the top of the board there - they appear to just be picking the higher %age in every game at the moment.

I haven't decided what to do re:Holliday vs. Ortiz. The tie is probably worth a fair bit making Holliday the favorite. Most the leader board will be on Ortiz, so its an opportunity to gain or lose against everybody if I go with Holliday.

I'll research the O/Us this afternoon and possibly factor in the early round #s as well before picking.

**lordswing** · 07-11-11, 01:44 PM

i'm probably going to sit out today, but i imagine the tie has to be worth at least 50 cents (yo Pinny, hire me!)