Systems and MAth and all that crap

[ATX]

one other thing...

I probably know more of who "you" are than you can say of me.

[Matt Rain]

you think I'm broke? wrong. Not what I said. But you can't determine outcomes - you can only try to get your money in with the best of it.

markets are more about people than about numbers. No. Bad bettors lose money and the ability to bet. The mass of bettors is like a supercomputer that smooths out inefficiencies during the market's life.

as are sporting events. think about it. No.

vig doesn't exist if there is overlay, there's not really commission on -110 that should be -117 is there? Obviously.

depends on perspective. No.

I'm not saying mathematical models don't work, I'm saying that they are not a requirement long term and I don't think they are optimal. I agree with the blue part - I don't do math myself.

of course, 90% of SBR posters are going to rush to judgement, disagree, and guffaw. I've seen some posts here.

ground zero: a bettor does not need to make a line, they only need to choose the right side. They need to beat the vig on either side (or both sides).

does math assist in this? Assuredly.

maybe. since sportsbooks use mathematical models for the majority of THEIR lines why try to beat them at their own game? it gets complicated with line moves and a myriad of other factors. I got no answer to that. I don't do math. Seems like a huge amount of work to end up looking at the sames lines I get.

My answers in bold.

[ATX]

I don't do math. Seems like a huge amount of work to end up looking at the sames lines I get.

then I don't understand how you can deconstruct any of this.

[Flying Dutchman]

how long have you been doing this and what are your records for all sports, college and pro by season?

I post picks at two pay sites, pogo. What do you do besides pick your nose?

[Matt Rain]

Deconstruct what now? I mean, I can play with odds and do basic "accounting" math like any serious bettor, but nothing that comes even remotely close to modeling.

You're being confusing. You seem to be saying that there is a right side to every matchup regardless of price. If so, you might not be broke, but you're not making money by betting. If you are, you haven't bet enough yet.

[ATX]

I post picks at two pay sites...

why?

you can't live off the picks?

[donjuan]

you think I'm broke? wrong.

Not necessarily. But you are certainly clueless.

markets are more about people than about numbers.

as are sporting events. think about it.

This literally makes no sense.

vig doesn't exist if there is overlay, there's not really commission on -110 that should be -117 is there?

depends on perspective.

Massive fail. There is vig in lines unless a book is running a no juice promotion.

I'm not saying mathematical models don't work, I'm saying that they are not a requirement long term and I don't think they are optimal.

Likely because you are unable to create a successful one.

of course, 90% of SBR posters are going to rush to judgement, disagree, and guffaw. I've seen some posts here.

Mostly because your argument is almost certainly terrible. I say "almost certainly" because you've so poorly verbalized it that it is hard to see exactly what you are saying.

ground zero: a bettor does not need to make a line, they only need to choose the right side. does math assist in this? maybe. since sportsbooks use mathematical models for the majority of THEIR lines why try to beat them at their own game? it gets complicated with line moves and a myriad of other factors.

Please define the "right side"; I feel like a laugh.

[Matt Rain]

"Points only matter in 17% of the games". -ACE-ACE

[ATX]

Are you saying that there is a right side to every matchup regardless of price?

no. some events are very difficult to quantify with a high enough degree of certainty. others are priced close enough that it's close to a toss up.

[Matt Rain]

Then what the hell is your point?

[FreeFall]

I'd like to tell you how your wrong, but your ego will protect your ignorance. So I'll just have to be nice and remind myself that someone has to pay for my winnings.

[Matt Rain]

I'd like to tell you how your wrong, but your ego will protect your ignorance. So I'll just have to be nice and remind myself that someone has to pay for my winnings.

Weeeeeeeeeeeee.

[tacomax]

Please define the "right side"; I feel like a laugh.

My mathematical model predicts that just learn how to pick winners will be the basis of the answer.

[ATX]

"Points only matter in 17% of the games". -ACE-ACE

Ace Ace is a fun one for sure. there is a slight ring of truth to that statement, not that it is true. NBA and NFL final scores since 198x did land a hefty margin off the closing number.

[ATX]

I'd like to tell you how your wrong, but your ego will protect your ignorance. So I'll just have to be nice and remind myself that someone has to pay for my winnings.

this isn't about me. this is about the sports market.

I'm not going to post w/l's from the last 13 years to satisfy YOUR ego, lol.

[ATX]

Likely because you are unable to create a successful one.

there are 5 major models that beat -110, blind, with volume every year. when I refer to models I refer to systems based on a single statistic or other piece of data.

lol at "massive fail" you must be 25 so no further comment.

[ATX]

My mathematical model predicts that just learn how to pick winners will be the basis of the answer.

good answer.

it is difficult to deconstruct or reverse engineer a process based on logic (and to explain it). a lot of different things go into it.

[Matt Rain]

Data mining FTW

[durito]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median

[lakerboy]

i actually started this thread and now i must say thanks to atx for carrying my name on and building my legacy. I have nothing bad to say about Matt Rain he is canadian. Donjuan is a prick so that is his regular behaviour. Tacomax just likes to make funny jokes. Atx these guys dont get it because their perpetual losers and they tell you that if you havent lost you havent bet enough. So if you dont get into an accident you need to drive more. Not all bettors lose and some actually make money playing less.

[ATX]

Data mining FTW

no.

angles that moving forward, that as a subset, will always be +EV.

unless there is a HUGE change in the market which I would notice (or lol massive fail on about 5% of bets placed per year). I assume you are referring to the systems or angles as far as the data mining comment. basically, the math that works in determining the spread (to a larger degree) on the majority of games does not work on some subsets. other logic based factoids push the value, cause the math to "fail". difficult to explain but it's based on human nature, people play sports, they are not cards or dice.

[durito]

You think you hit 75% ATS at -110 in the NBA/NFL. That says it all.

[lakerboy]

You think you hit 75% ATS at -110 in the NBA/NFL. That says it all.

-- you bet on everything from what time you take a shit in the morning to when your going to shower. i dont bet 9000 games a year im not a compulsive addict like you. i pick and chose my spots. you do whats good for you and i will carry on for myself.

[ATX]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median

not interested in semantics. I use median and mean so little I often combine the two as they are fairly similar in definition.

question: Do you think Gaussian functions or distributions apply to sports betting?

[durito]

So take my bet. I'll put up the 50k in an x bet at matchbook.

[ATX]

You think you hit 75% ATS at -110 in the NBA/NFL. That says it all.

huh?

first of all that wouldn't be optimal. the volume would be too low IF that was possible. some sporting events do have a 70% chance of cashing vs W/A lines. not a very large number of them.

[ATX]

So take my bet. I'll put up the 50k in an x bet at matchbook.

I asked for a link in another thread.

where is it?

[lakerboy]

durito you are the resident expert. i put my money with my local only- im not going to be giving my info over to strangers. you da man. i make money my way and im happy about it.

[ATX]

question: Do you think Gaussian functions or distributions apply to sports betting?

laker,

which ones would you say are the winners?

[lakerboy]

atx all i know is that i win often

[MonkeyF0cker]

ground zero: a bettor does not need to make a line, they only need to choose the right side. does math assist in this? maybe. since sportsbooks use mathematical models for the majority of THEIR lines why try to beat them at their own game? it gets complicated with line moves and a myriad of other factors.

How do you quantify your edge?

[MonkeyF0cker]

there are 5 major models that beat -110, blind, with volume every year. when I refer to models I refer to systems based on a single statistic or other piece of data.

lol at "massive fail" you must be 25 so no further comment.

Systems aren't models, bonehead.

[ATX]

How do you quantify your edge?

$

in the past I paid more attention to ROI, hold percentage, etc.

I don't invest in the sports market to see how high of an ROI or hold percentage I can attain, I invest to make money.

are you going to argue that systems and models can't be used interchangeably?

do you have anything to say about Gaussian distributions?

if you are going to call me names at least be creative, Aho

[MonkeyF0cker]

$

in the past I paid more attention to ROI, hold percentage, etc.

So you have absolutely no way of quantifying your edge and subsequently maximizing your returns. That's brilliant. See Kelly Criterion.

I don't invest in the sports market to see how high of an ROI or hold percentage I can attain, I invest to make money.

Probably one of the dumber comments I've ever read on here. Sort of like, "I want to make money, but not TOO much." Kelly Criterion, edge, expected value, expected growth, etc. Toss all that out the window, right? LOL. Retard.

are you going to argue that systems and models can't be used interchangeably?

No. I'm going to argue that THEY AREN'T THE SAME, as you somehow seem to think they are. Retard.

do you have anything to say about Gaussian distributions?

LOL. WTF do normal distributions have to do with this AT ALL??? You're the one talking about the uselessness of math in handicapping. I will say this about Gaussian distributions... If we place your intelligence in the worldwide percentile distribution, it has a z-score of -500,000,000.

if you are going to call me names at least be creative, Aho

Retard.

[ATX]

So you have absolutely no way of quantifying your edge and subsequently maximizing your returns. That's brilliant. See Kelly Criterion.

Kelly Kelly assumes sequential bets that are independent (later work generalizes to bets that have sufficient independence). That may be a good model for some gambling games, but generally does not apply in investing and other forms of risk-taking. I don't see them as independent, psychological factors dictate otherwise.


Probably one of the dumber comments I've ever read on here. Sort of like, "I want to make money, but not TOO much." Kelly Criterion, edge, expected value, expected growth, etc. Toss all that out the window, right? LOL. Retard.

good point. it's better to settle for about 15-20% per sport per year. starting out, with partial Kelly makes a little sense at lower levels, but there are some problems especially moving up. number one, people are creatures of habit. you get into the habit of betting with kelly it's tough to break. also if you try to make too much it tends to piss off the books and you tend to ruin your own market to a certain degree (I'm assuming you know about rogue numbers and of course reduced vig). it's also a big roller coaster ride, the psychology of it tends to break people down and alter performance.


No. I'm going to argue that THEY AREN'T THE SAME, as you somehow seem to think they are. Retard.

interchangeable


LOL. WTF do normal distributions have to do with this AT ALL??? You're the one talking about the uselessness of math in handicapping. I will say this about Gaussian distributions... If we place your intelligence in the worldwide percentile distribution, it has a z-score of -500,000,000.

Retard.

I've heard arguments for Gaussian systems, not that I agree with them. Retard? is all the winning upsetting you or something?