Systems and MAth and all that crap

[ATX]

I don't see most of the statistical theories suggested resulting in an impressive bottom line. I think you are pissed off because you know it's true. It's difficult to bridge the gap between my perspective and the "math" perspective (for lack of a better term). A lot of ideas are hard to convey with language.

[tacomax]

You got it - he's pissed off because it's true. You've found him out. Congratulations.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I've heard arguments for Gaussian systems, not that I agree with them. Retard? is all the winning upsetting you or something?

Gaussian systems? Or Gaussian models? Again? Really?

There are uses for Gaussian distributions in modelling. You're talking about a VERY broad topic here, but I really don't expect you to understand that.

[ATX]

You got it - he's pissed off because it's true. You've found him out. Congratulations.

do you have a better reason?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't see most of the statistical theories suggested resulting in an impressive bottom line. I think you are pissed off because you know it's true. It's difficult to bridge the gap between my perspective and the "math" perspective (for lack of a better term). A lot of ideas are hard to convey with language.

One would first need to be able to comprehend and subsequently apply them before making such a judgement. Wouldn't you agree?

I'm not pissed off. You just have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

[ATX]

Gaussian systems? Or Gaussian models? Again? Really?

There are uses for Gaussian distributions in modelling. You're talking about a VERY broad topic here, but I really don't expect you to understand that.

I'm trying to translate some of this from someone that doesn't speak English berry goot. Personally, I don't think either are appropriate.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Either what?

To clarify: There is no such thing as a Gaussian system.

[tacomax]

do you have a better reason?

You don't see statistical models as being profitable because you've no idea what they are and how they work. I'm guessing that if you had perfect data then you still wouldn't know how to use it - not understanding something doesn't mean to say it's not profitable.

Do you know actually know the theory behind the Gaussian distribution before "disagreeing" with it?

[ATX]

One would first need to be able to comprehend and subsequently apply them before making such a judgement. Wouldn't you agree?

I'm not pissed off. You just have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

I don't see a lot of things from your perspective either.

[ATX]

You don't see statistical models as being profitable because you've no idea what they are and how they work. I'm guessing that if you had perfect data then you still wouldn't know how to use it - not understanding something doesn't mean to say it's not profitable.

how successful are they for you, personally?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I don't see a lot of things from your perspective either.

Either? I completely understand the novice approach that you take to handicapping. Good luck. You'll need it.

[ATX]

Either? I completely understand the novice approach that you take to handicapping. Good luck. You'll need it.

what type of ROI do you expect per sport per season?

[MonkeyF0cker]

My brushes don't paint that broadly.

[tacomax]

how successful are they for you, personally?

Seriously. What is the best answer I can give you here?

But why not actually examine the statistical systems and try them out for yourself? It takes very little more than a college level stats class.

[ATX]

My brushes don't paint that broadly.

that's the part I really don't understand.

[MonkeyF0cker]

that's the part I really don't understand.

My edges are dictated by opening lines and the market. I might have 65 bets one day and 8 the next. If there isn't any value a game, I don't bet it. I don't waste my time attempting to forecast what I hope to make in a season.

[tacomax]

that's the part I really don't understand.

Without wanting to speak on behalf of him, I'm sure that he has no set % for each sport each year. He places bets with differing levels of return - if there is an edge then he will bet it and bet higher where there is a higher edge. Individual sports aren't relevant, the expected return is.

Anyway, here's a gift to you. An econometrics book which should tell you all you need to know about statistical models. It's not that hard to follow assuming college level stats:

http://polisophy.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/basic-econometrics.pdf

You might find most interesting the parts about building regression models and probability functions (which kind of look like betting odds when you think about it).

[Dark Horse]

Old Chinese saying for internet sports bettors
'Attain wisdom, if you must, but let stupidity pay the bills'

[ATX]

Seriously. What is the best answer I can give you here?

But why not actually examine the statistical systems and try them out for yourself? It takes very little more than a college level stats class.

I did. a long time ago. I found they were less profitable. plus the psychological aspect was too much. I found something that worked better. the main problem, well not so much a problem, is that what I use is time consuming. I'm attempting to make it more mechanical and less time consuming with the help of someone who isn't 15 years removed from statistics classes. I've heard a lot of theories, I haven't seen a lot of results. Not sure what kind of ROI to expect. I've done well enough not to have to continue and feel like too much of a roller coaster isn't great for health.

[ATX]

My edges are dictated by opening lines and the market. I might have 65 bets one day and 8 the next. If there isn't any value a game, I don't bet it. I don't waste my time attempting to forecast what I hope to make in a season.

strictly mechanical? I understand betting an amount correlating to value. I'm assuming no adjustments for information outside of market numbers, I'm assuming you know of some angles that affect win percentages outside the numbers, do you just ignore those?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Such as?

And what does "information outside of market numbers" pertain to?

[ATX]

Such as?

And what does "information outside of market numbers" pertain to?

difficult to explain without giving too much away. it might take a while to put in a way that makes sense. I do something different that works and I'm not sure that combining two approaches is possible. I'm told that it is but...I need to map something out.

[Matt Rain]

I think ATX is trying to tell us that he's from the future.

[Matt Rain]

it might take me a while to make sense.

It might.

[ATX]

I think ATX is trying to tell us that he's from the future.

yes.

apparently, it's the only way you guys would understand.

[ATX]

Such as?

And what does "information outside of market numbers" pertain to?

I've been where you are.

I ditched a lot of it.

I found a better way.

thanks for the replies. I've been thinking and looking at stuff for the last couple days or whatever they were.

It's one thing to bet dimes at SIA.

also, when a system or model, whatever you want to call it is based on the market, itself...

bad idea. every market known to man has at one time failed, caused people depending on it to fail.

I've been there with the 63 games in a day.

this will not end well for you.

[ATX]

you have to incorporate market principle with a basic idea of handicapping.

you are not handicapping you are basically writing a 'bot' for the sports market, an unregulated, industry.

it's similar to me asking you this...

how do you get funds out of netteller when the government freezes the funds?

how do you get funds out of a failed sportsbook?

you've got me on statistical theory. but that is all you got.

look at economies of scale.

no one is betting Kelly at over 5K a game, and the way you come across you act like you are already there when it's apparent you are not.

[lakerboy]

you have to incorporate market principle with a basic idea of handicapping.

you are not handicapping you are basically writing a 'bot' for the sports market, an unregulated, industry.

it's similar to me asking you this...

how do you get funds out of netteller when the government freezes the funds?

how do you get funds out of a failed sportsbook?

you've got me on statistical theory. but that is all you got.

look at economies of scale.

no one is betting Kelly at over 5K a game, and the way you come across you act like you are already there when it's apparent you are not.

atx dont waste your time with these guys. they all lose money gambling and if anyone says they make money thier response is " you havent bet enough games"

[ATX]

atx dont waste your time with these guys. they all lose money gambling and if anyone says they make money thier response is " you havent bet enough games"

they know what they are talking about. I just do something different.
the WORST thing they can do is respond.

I guarantee you that I have bet 2.5x times the volume that they have. I doubt they've hit 29 yet.

[ATX]

Billy Walters already came and went.

these guys think they are the next computer group.

it's like saying "I went to MIT" while the guy sitting next to you made 500M picking up garbage.

[durito]

lol

[ATX]

lol

me too. u have a link yet?

[ATX]

durito,

I know you must have gotten a kick out of that cutter thread?

the dumpster diving is +EV when looking for discarded tickets?

[durito]

i have no idea what you are talking about

[ATX]

i have no idea what you are talking about

I can't bet 64 much less 65 games a day anymore.

more than one reason. I'll just start with that