Systems and MAth and all that crap

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:18 PM

ATX
Senior Member

Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 4,884

the guys at SBR think they are the next BW betting nickels at SIA.

wow. then things change. a book they haven't gotten kicked out of yet folds with half their bank roll. welcome to finishing school.

sign the guestbook.

durito · 07-04-09, 05:22 PM

clueless

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:24 PM

got me. what's your point?

do you want to make one?

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:26 PM

I've seen you mention a couple of times you want an ambiguous persona to post up some money at Matchbook.

this thread is better answered in 10 months, as is the Matchbook postup.

you follow?

durito · 07-04-09, 05:34 PM

your buddy lakerboy claims to hit 75% ATS at -110 in NBA and NFL. I offered him a wager to prove it, I suggested he post up at matchbook for an x-bet. This obviously is not going to happen.

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by durito

your buddy lakerboy claims to hit 75% ATS at -110 in NBA and NFL. I offered him a wager to prove it, I suggested he post up at matchbook for an x-bet. This obviously is not going to happen.

bad news.

I probably wouldn't have taken the bet knowing what I know about you, fwiw. even tho I have a good atty.

there are good people here. I'm trying to pick their brains and it's not really working.

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:38 PM

that came across completely wrong.

not questioning DURITO's credibility at all.

his ability to +EV.

ATX · 07-04-09, 05:42 PM

back to topic...

this Kelly guy...and his followers...

what's the theory on when you can't go partial before moving the line?

seriously, it works to a certain point for sure...when you beat -108.

after a while your BR is retarded compared to limits. right?

Peep · 07-04-09, 06:32 PM

I think everyone posting in this thread has a very long pee-pee.

I do not understand why they are wasting their time waving it around at other men. I hope and trust they will in time find better uses for their very long pee-pees.

I do not know what a Gaussian distribution is. I did google it, seems like it could be useful if you have limited data and you want to know if your distribution points would be similiar with larger amounts of data.

I think kelly works well for measuring electric conductivity. I think Huey Maul was a smartie, as was Thorpe, but I do not think using it for sportsbetting where there are so many variables in measuring your edge is a very good application. From Wikipedia.

Although the Kelly strategy's promise of doing better than any other strategy seems compelling, some economists have argued strenuously against it, mainly because an individual's specific investing constraints override the desire for optimal growth rate.[5] The conventional alternative is utility theory which says bets should be sized to maximize the expected utility of the outcome (to an individual with logarithmic utility, the Kelly bet maximizes utility, so there is no conflict). Even Kelly supporters usually argue for fractional Kelly (betting a fixed fraction of the amount recommended by Kelly) for a variety of practical reasons, such as wishing to reduce volatility, or protecting against non-deterministic errors in their advantage (edge) calculations.[6]

ATX · 07-04-09, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by Peep

I think everyone posting in this thread has a very long pee-pee.

I do not understand why they are wasting their time waving it around at other men. I hope and trust they will in time find better uses for their very long pee-pees.

I do not know what a Gaussian distribution is. I did google it, seems like it could be useful if you have limited data and you want to know if your distribution points would be similiar with larger amounts of data.

I think kelly works well for measuring electric conductivity. I think Huey Maul was a smartie, as was Thorpe, but I do not think using it for sportsbetting where there are so many variables in measuring your edge is a very good application. From Wikipedia.

I'm just trying to figure out with THEIR strategy how they are going to overcome limits???

you aren't going to get rich without figuring this out.

BEEN THERE

dwaechte · 07-04-09, 07:18 PM

What an excellent thread. Bleh.

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by dwaechte

What an excellent thread. Bleh.

I guess you are saying u know something about overcoming limits.

please expand. it's a toughie.

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:25 PM

I asked about ROI, I got bullshit.

NO BODY in their right mind would invest in this bull shit without an expected ROI.

the guys insinuating they make six figures could make more legally.

you are smarter than me. explain "stuff".

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 07:27 PM

another legendary thread started by lakerboy- look at the post count

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:28 PM

for instance...

I'm a CPA.

because I got drunk enough to pay for the test.

just to save you the typical "retard" post.

durito · 07-04-09, 07:31 PM

i love the argument against kelly that because eventually your bankroll gets too big to stake anything near full kelly because of limits that that somehow invalidates kelly.

it doesn't. and if your roll is really that big, i'd say you are doing pretty damn well.

the guys insinuating they make six figures could make more legally.

what exactly is it that i do that's illegal?

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by durito

i love the argument against kelly that because eventually your bankroll gets too big to stake anything near full kelly because of limits that that somehow invalidates kelly.

it doesn't. and if your roll is really that big, i'd say you are doing pretty damn well.

what exactly is it that i do that's illegal?

at limits you are getting W/A numbers.

you guys are betting small edges.

W/A crushes that edge, people are stupid, but not stupid enough to let you bet limits on dogs for THAT long.

at some point, if you want to make serious money, things change.

I'm getting shit like "massive fail" lol.

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:46 PM

durito,

I have no idea what you are talking about as far as illegal.

I've got citzenship in 5 countries, if that is what you are asking.

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 07:47 PM

atx- durito is god at sbr- stop he will lose respect for you--lol

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

atx- durito is god at sbr- stop he will lose respect for you--lol

I know who everyone is.

that's why it's funny they choose insults over conjecture.

durito · 07-04-09, 07:51 PM

i don't understand your point

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by ATX

I know who everyone is.

that's why it's funny they choose insults over conjecture.

dont waste anytime with durito and tacofag- they are perfectly lonely

ATX · 07-04-09, 07:57 PM

ok,

I get it.

you guys are a bunch of small stackers that think 70K before taxes is good.

"you never run into limits..."

WTF? define happiness.

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by ATX

ok,

I get it.

you guys are a bunch of small stackers that think 70K before taxes is good.

"you never run into limits..."

WTF? define happiness.

living in colombia

ATX · 07-04-09, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

living in colombia

well, that certainly slowed me down.

it IS saturday nite.

the guy under the bridge doesn't exactly have the peruvian flake.

got any +EV needles?

durito · 07-04-09, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by ATX

ok,

I get it.

you guys are a bunch of small stackers that think 70K before taxes is good.

"you never run into limits..."

WTF? define happiness.

yes i'm a small timer, i've been doing this full time for about a year now. that doesn't apply to anyone else. and i've already made more than that this year.

when did i say you never run into limits. pretty much everything i bet is for the limit.

durito · 07-04-09, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

living in colombia

for me it sure does.

i live in one the best cities in the world. perfect weather. the most beautiful women in the world. very reasonable cost of living.

ATX · 07-04-09, 08:10 PM

I'm not pointing at you specifically.

bot programs work up to to a point.

it's like poker, you have to know how to play the game...

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by durito

for me it sure does.

i live in one the best cities in the world. perfect weather. the most beautiful women in the world. very reasonable cost of living.

you have a spare room i will move in and then we can snort together

durito · 07-04-09, 08:11 PM

i think not. i don't do drugs anymore.

ATX · 07-04-09, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by durito

for me it sure does.

i live in one the best cities in the world. perfect weather. the most beautiful women in the world. very reasonable cost of living.

a 2nd cousin works for IBM there.

I'd marry her if it wasn't borderline illegal.

I'm tired of the US, Germany first than Brazil to live.

lakerboy · 07-04-09, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by durito

i think not. i don't do drugs anymore.

your on the drug called addicted to gambling i think we could get along come on durito

ATX · 07-05-09, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by durito

yes i'm a small timer, i've been doing this full time for about a year now. that doesn't apply to anyone else. and i've already made more than that this year.

when did i say you never run into limits. pretty much everything i bet is for the limit.

I don't understand when you say "you don't run into limits."

I mean when I first started, I was making 300% of BR a year.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by ATX

Billy Walters already came and went.

these guys think they are the next computer group.

it's like saying "I went to MIT" while the guy sitting next to you made 500M picking up garbage.

Umm. I live in Vegas and personally know several runners for Billy Walters. He isn't gone, genius.

lakerboy · 07-05-09, 01:03 AM

the genius is here