Systems and MAth and all that crap

donjuan · 07-05-09, 02:43 AM

that is what you are doing.

outside of arguing semantics.

1) There is much more that you can do with a market based strategy than "bot", or play off numbers.

2) A market based approach has little to do with modeling. But clearly you don't understand that as you think "systems" and modeling are the same thing.

PS If you can't make 100k/year with a market based approach you aren't trying very hard, you just started or you have no clue what you're doing.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 02:44 AM

they are a great way towards getting limited, booted, getting stiffed.

Considering that anyone who isn't a retard gets limited and occasionally booted online, that's no surprise.

ATX · 07-05-09, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

1) There is much more that you can do with a market based strategy than "bot", or play off numbers.

2) A market based approach has little to do with modeling. But clearly you don't understand that as you think "systems" and modeling are the same thing.

PS If you can't make 100k/year with a market based approach you aren't trying very hard, you just started or you have no clue what you're doing.

I base a lot of what I do on market perspectives.

what you don't understand is that when you put all your eggs in one basket...it's not too hard to lose a lot more than that 100K a year you think is great. I've been doing nothing but "this" since the '90's.

ATX · 07-05-09, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Considering that anyone who isn't a retard gets limited and occasionally booted online, that's no surprise.

...and Pinnacle has no limits.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by ATX

I base a lot of what I do on market perspectives.

what you don't understand is that when you put all your eggs in one basket...it's not too hard to lose a lot more than that 100K a year you think is great. I've been doing nothing but "this" since the '90's.

Who do you think dictates the markets? The guys betting on hunches and trying to "pick winners?"

It's certainly not the guys using probability models, right?

ATX · 07-05-09, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Considering that anyone who isn't a retard gets limited and occasionally booted online, that's no surprise.

getting stiffed takes away any expected value. it only takes one time to take away any +EV from a long string of them.

you guys are too green to understand there's a better way than to keep pushing the envelope.

ATX · 07-05-09, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Who do you think dictates the markets? The guys betting on hunches and trying to "pick winners?"

It's certainly not the guys using probability models, right?

depends on the book. I'm assuming you don't believe Henry et al shade the number/vig a bit based on hunches and an ability to use information outside of market bots to pick winners.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by ATX

getting stiffed takes away any expected value. it only takes one time to take away any +EV from a long string of them.

you guys are too green to understand there's a better way than to keep pushing the envelope.

I live in Vegas. I'd like to see a book here TRY to stiff me.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by ATX

depends on the book. I'm assuming you don't believe Henry et al shade the number/vig a bit based on hunches and an ability to use information outside of market bots to pick winners.

Please define "market bot," because obviously the actual definition and your idea of one are two completely different fukkin ideas.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 02:57 AM

I base a lot of what I do on market perspectives.

what you don't understand is that when you put all your eggs in one basket...it's not too hard to lose a lot more than that 100K a year you think is great. I've been doing nothing but "this" since the '90's.

Like most of your other posts this makes no sense and is bordering on illiterate. I just hope for your sake that English is not your first language.

depends on the book. I'm assuming you don't believe Henry et al shade the number/vig a bit based on hunches and an ability to use information outside of market bots to pick winners.

As I said before, you clearly don't understand what a statistical model is or entails. Quelle surprise.

ATX · 07-05-09, 02:58 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

I live in Vegas. I'd like to see a book here TRY to stiff me.

you mean a casino?

you probably know how to get around the Vegas limits somewhat, but my guys can barely get $500 on a game. I don't like messing with mob outs if I don't have to, don't want to get Tupac'd.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 02:59 AM

getting stiffed takes away any expected value. it only takes one time to take away any +EV from a long string of them.

you guys are too green to understand there's a better way than to keep pushing the envelope.

Please give me odds that I get stiffed by any book I play BSTs at this NFL season.

Even Las Palmas ended up paying me on my BSPs for NCAAB/NBA/NFL/NCAAF.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by ATX

you mean a casino?

you probably know how to get around the Vegas limits somewhat, but my guys can barely get $500 on a game. I don't like messing with mob outs if I don't have to, don't want to get Tupac'd.

Moron post of the year.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 03:00 AM

you mean a casino?

you probably know how to get around the Vegas limits somewhat, but my guys can barely get $500 on a game. I don't like messing with mob outs if I don't have to, don't want to get Tupac'd.

Yes, I'm sure "your guys" have problems getting a nickel down considering Vegas books don't even ID on dime bets.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Please define "market bot," because obviously the actual definition and your idea of one are two completely different fukkin ideas.

I'm generalizing.

my point is that handicapping trumps mechanization.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:03 AM

Originally posted by ATX

I'm generalizing.

my point is that handicapping trumps mechanization.

LOL. I guess this goes even deeper. So what is "handicapping," since obviously your definition and the actual definition are two completely different fukkin ideas?

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:04 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Yes, I'm sure "your guys" have problems getting a nickel down considering Vegas books don't even ID on dime bets.

a lot of them book to faces.

you really think you are going to keep walking into a casino after having walked out with mid six figures. hell, even a rube like Barkley has trouble sometimes.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 03:05 AM

I'm generalizing.

my point is that handicapping trumps mechanization.

Obviously. However, without a statistical model you are highly unlikely to beat the widely available line if you give a reasonable volume in the year 2009.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 03:06 AM

a lot of them book to faces.

you really think you are going to keep walking into a casino after having walked out with mid six figures. hell, even a rube like Barkley has trouble sometimes.
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MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by ATX

a lot of them book to faces.

you really think you are going to keep walking into a casino after having walked out with mid six figures. hell, even a rube like Barkley has trouble sometimes.

There is NO book that limits certain players to $500 every game here. You're limited to counter limits or no action. Period. Vegas isn't the internet, Einstein.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

LOL. I guess this goes even deeper. So what is "handicapping," since obviously your definition and the actual definition are two completely different fukkin ideas?

they are. to you. probably.

you guys try to define everything.

the LOGIC based approach adapts, I incorporate a lot of what you do, but I'm not dependent on it.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 03:08 AM

To sum up ATX's argument: Ambiguity>you.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by ATX

they are. to you. probably.

you guys try to define everything.

the LOGIC based approach adapts, I incorporate a lot of what you do, but I'm not dependent on it.

Right. When you don't even know what a normal distribution is...

You don't do anything close to what I do.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

There is NO book that limits certain players to $500 every game here. You're limited to counter limits or no action. Period. Vegas isn't the internet, Einstein.

I'm not going to argue your experience.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

To sum up ATX's argument: Ambiguity>you.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Right. When you don't even know what a normal distribution is...

You don't do anything close to what I do.

I do. a good place to start. at some point you have to switch gears, I won't even mention exactly what I do, I would be "from a different planet..."

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by ATX

not interested in semantics. I use median and mean so little I often combine the two as they are fairly similar in definition.

question: Do you think Gaussian functions or distributions apply to sports betting?

Right. You have no fukkin clue, pal.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

To sum up ATX's argument: Ambiguity>you.

"destined to fail since '78..."

you can't argue that my shit doesn't work. more and more of you clones are appearing on the scene. at some point I don't think this will work out for you. seriously, the lines are a lot sharper than they were a couple decades ago, from a statistical standpoint. that's one of the reasons I started looking at things from a different angle.

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Right. You have no fukkin clue, pal.

I was having trouble understanding a German physicist.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by ATX

"destined to fail since '78..."

you can't argue that my shit doesn't work. more and more of you clones are appearing on the scene. at some point I don't think this will work out for you. seriously, the lines are a lot sharper than they were a couple decades ago, from a statistical standpoint. that's one of the reasons I started looking at things from a different angle.

There will always be squares like you to create value.

MonkeyF0cker · 07-05-09, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by ATX

I was having trouble understanding a German physicist.

Try again. If you had any clue, you'd know the difference between mean and median is far more than "semantics."

ATX · 07-05-09, 03:29 AM

you are right about wasting time though.

good luck climbing the mountain.

donjuan · 07-05-09, 03:33 AM

"destined to fail since '78..."

you can't argue that my shit doesn't work. more and more of you clones are appearing on the scene. at some point I don't think this will work out for you. seriously, the lines are a lot sharper than they were a couple decades ago, from a statistical standpoint. that's one of the reasons I started looking at things from a different angle.

Yes, it won't work for me despite a 25k bet sample size. Thanks for your help.

durito · 07-29-09, 09:36 PM

tacomax · 07-30-09, 03:54 AM

Looks like ATX had both donjuan and MonkeyF0cker on the ropes here.