Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**milwaukee mike** · 04-21-20, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Yeah this the time that I'm picking up some more long term stock plays that I have. I did get stopped out of Tesla, and I'm thinking of going short on it although the nasdaq has a way of holding up this stock I think. It is really worth maybe $150 on a good day, so this may be a long term short play for me. At least it could develop into a long play anyway. Still short XLF and that is starting to work for me, and picking up Boeing when it dips below $125. I see they are really trying to pump up Boeing but they just can't keep any momentum for short term buying of this stock. If you get some be prepared to hold for 5 + years before you sell.

$150 for tesla? they have some earnings estimates of $30/share in 2022... i think it's worth more like $2000

my guess is there will be a $5000/car cash for clunkers deal with some kind of tie in for buying a more energy efficient vehicle

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 02:09 PM

Mid-afternoon rally looks to be failing, trading down almost 3% on the day. Look for a retest of that 2730 level in the final hour. If that doesn't hold, could close hard down under 2,700. Will be interesting to watch. Bears asserting this week. Just not seeing much support until the 2,625-2,650 level.

**SBR_Guest_Pro** · 04-21-20, 02:15 PM

picked up disney just under 100. eyeing uber right now and roku

**vitterd** · 04-21-20, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Mid-afternoon rally looks to be failing, trading down almost 3% on the day. Look for a retest of that 2730 level in the final hour. If that doesn't hold, could close hard down under 2,700. Will be interesting to watch. Bears asserting this week. Just not seeing much support until the 2,625-2,650 level.

Trump says markets doing well because people think he’s doing a good job with the virus. Any thoughts on that?

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by vitterd

Trump says markets doing well because people think he’s doing a good job with the virus. Any thoughts on that?

Yeah, I'm sure when the markets fall he will say it's because people think he's doing a bad job with the virus.

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 02:52 PM

Tried to rally, but failed. Last 10 minutes could be sharp.

**milwaukee mike** · 04-21-20, 02:59 PM

in the "yes it's horrible news but so what" department...

coke's global sales in april are down an unbelievable 25%, and yet the stock is down a buck

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

in the "yes it's horrible news but so what" department...

coke's global sales in april are down an unbelievable 25%, and yet the stock is down a buck

Coke is one of those brands that will ultimately make it through just fine. Buying here to hold 5 years is not the worst plan, although if they slash the dividend that would hurt. But at $45 and 3.5% yield that should get you farther in 5 years than a money market account.

**milwaukee mike** · 04-21-20, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Coke is one of those brands that will ultimately make it through just fine. Buying here to hold 5 years is not the worst plan, although if they slash the dividend that would hurt. But at $45 and 3.5% yield that should get you farther in 5 years than a money market account.

absolutely

but the stock is up 20% in a month, and during that time the only news is much worse than expected

stock is higher than it was in feb 19, and higher than feb 18, which is downright ridiculous considering that sporting events, movies, restaurants, etc are all gonna be in the dumps for quite a while... some of that business could be permanently lost

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 03:27 PM

Good report and outlook from Texas Instruments could buoy tech stocks tomorrow.

NFLX and SNAP also good.

Financials reports not so good.

Think we get back to the tech vs. other dichotomy tomorrow.

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 05:09 PM

Bad news on virus.
Mixed news at best on earnings reports.
"Good" news on more endless government money.
Now what?

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 05:43 PM

FB, GOOG, AAPL, etc all jumping after hours. Probably be an up day tomorrow, esp for Nasdaq.

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-21-20, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

FB, GOOG, AAPL, etc all jumping after hours. Probably be an up day tomorrow, esp for Nasdaq.

LOL every stock that promotes isolation and not being outside.

Netflix crushed....probably cant go any higher

**d2bets** · 04-21-20, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

LOL every stock that promotes isolation and not being outside.

Netflix crushed....probably cant go any higher

Right, exactly. The big tech companies will come out of this stronger and bigger and with higher values than ever. Can't go too wrong with QQQ's.

**Skidcom** · 04-21-20, 07:40 PM

I think the pop fails tomorrow. Looking for next intermediate trading entry point at around 2640. With short interest accelerating I do not see a retest of the lows, even if the next quarter is a complete disaster. I think keeping some healthy cash to use for bargains later is the way to go

**homie1975** · 04-21-20, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Skidcom

I think the pop fails tomorrow. Looking for next intermediate trading entry point at around 2640. With short interest accelerating I do not see a retest of the lows, even if the next quarter is a complete disaster. I think keeping some healthy cash to use for bargains later is the way to go

where have you been??

**Enkhbat** · 04-22-20, 05:10 AM

Dow up almost 300 on futures trading, could be up bigly today.

**rkelly110** · 04-22-20, 06:56 AM

Anyone subscribe to this guy? Sounds like he knows what he's doing?

**Slurry Pumper** · 04-22-20, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

$150 for tesla? they have some earnings estimates of $30/share in 2022... i think it's worth more like $2000

my guess is there will be a $5000/car cash for clunkers deal with some kind of tie in for buying a more energy efficient vehicle

Tesla is still a joke when it comes to being a car company. They have a better play in the tech sectors, but other manufacturers are starting to make high end electric vehicles while Tesla is still learning how to make cars. Only their CEO and hype are keeping this stock afloat. When I said $150 on a good day, I actual feel like a fair evaluation of this stock is around $85 to tell the truth. I guess the other side will look at the future outlook and say that is why the stock is were it is but I am skeptical.

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-22-20, 08:23 AM

The other car companies may not survive.

Nobody has any money to buy the 2020 models let alone 2021 stuff.

Lots of repossessions coming.

Tesla only car play in the sector

**grease lightnin** · 04-22-20, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Tesla is still a joke when it comes to being a car company. They have a better play in the tech sectors, but other manufacturers are starting to make high end electric vehicles while Tesla is still learning how to make cars. Only their CEO and hype are keeping this stock afloat. When I said $150 on a good day, I actual feel like a fair evaluation of this stock is around $85 to tell the truth. I guess the other side will look at the future outlook and say that is why the stock is were it is but I am skeptical.

How did you arrive at your $85 valuation?

**MinnesotaFats** · 04-22-20, 08:42 AM

LOL

Big30 jump 400 points at open because June oil "stabilized" as DeBlasio simultaneously shuts down NYC thru June 30.

Can't make this shit up. NYC residents will FLEE to opened up destinations and we'll get a second wave here in 90 days.

Going to have to see individual State travel bans for this reopening to work because NYC will bring us all down.

**milwaukee mike** · 04-22-20, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

How did you arrive at your $85 valuation?

i'm curious as well... what do you think tesla will have in eps in 2022?

they have about $12 billion in cash/inventory ($60/share) so i guess the company is really only worth $25/share net of those things

**milwaukee mike** · 04-22-20, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

LOL

Big30 jump 400 points at open because June oil "stabilized" as DeBlasio simultaneously shuts down NYC thru June 30.

Can't make this shit up. NYC residents will FLEE to opened up destinations and we'll get a second wave here in 90 days.

Going to have to see individual State travel bans for this reopening to work because NYC will bring us all down.

yeah and all these sleeper cells of terrorists are gonna blow up our subways and apartments too... give me a fukking break

**d2bets** · 04-22-20, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Great chance to buy Nvidia now under 268.

Above 283 now. Anyone jump on this?

**Slurry Pumper** · 04-22-20, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

How did you arrive at your $85 valuation?

Tesla has ongoing production issues, they need to have new models rolled out on a more consistent basis, they burn cash like no other, new facility construction issues. They are valued with a market cap as big as Toyota but still have no PE ratio because to have one of those, you need to have earnings. You can disagree with my $150, or $85 level, but at $700 right now, this is a short play fort sure. They did deliver 40,000 vehicles in the first quarter but I think that was a slight of hand move for them and was looking forward to seeing if they are able to produce for an entire year if they could, I doubt it. Of course that isn't gonna happen this year, and with their cash burn rate, they will need another infusion of cash just like they got last time. You know a bunch of rich "Greenies" who pie in the sky ideas and money I'm telling ya, every thing about this company screams scam to me. The price is all hype just like a circus ring master.

**grease lightnin** · 04-22-20, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

Tesla has ongoing production issues, they need to have new models rolled out on a more consistent basis, they burn cash like no other, new facility construction issues. They are valued with a market cap as big as Toyota but still have no PE ratio because to have one of those, you need to have earnings. You can disagree with my $150, or $85 level, but at $700 right now, this is a short play fort sure. They did deliver 40,000 vehicles in the first quarter but I think that was a slight of hand move for them and was looking forward to seeing if they are able to produce for an entire year if they could, I doubt it. Of course that isn't gonna happen this year, and with their cash burn rate, they will need another infusion of cash just like they got last time. You know a bunch of rich "Greenies" who pie in the sky ideas and money I'm telling ya, every thing about this company screams scam to me. The price is all hype just like a circus ring master.

You did not tell me how you arrived at that number other than giving me a bunch of conjecture that doesn’t apply to a true valuation, which was the word you used. I am not advocating that Tesla is a buy, or a sell. But I have seen you post as though you’re an expert and I have seen you reference a recent low in the Dow that was 1000 points above the actual low, and now I have seen you put a price target on a stock that is near 1/10 the current price and lower than the most bearish of Wall Street analysts.

I am just making sure posters read your posts with caution.

**d2bets** · 04-22-20, 09:19 AM

Will this mini-rally today peter out? Signs point to yes.

**khicks26** · 04-22-20, 09:20 AM

Stock Market = Post Toastee

**chico2663** · 04-22-20, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

yeah and all these sleeper cells of terrorists are gonna blow up our subways and apartments too... give me a fukking break

Mike what do you think about Cato I've been holding 300 shares but I only bought to get the dividend I've lost my ass and just wondering if it's worth holding. I won't hold you responsible ether way just trying to get your opinion

**khicks26** · 04-22-20, 09:25 AM

**Roscoe_Word** · 04-22-20, 09:26 AM

Really volatile these days. (like BTC)

Little scary if we dip below 20,000 but don't see that happening.

Looks like a good day so far.

**milwaukee mike** · 04-22-20, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by chico2663

Mike what do you think about Cato I've been holding 300 shares but I only bought to get the dividend I've lost my ass and just wondering if it's worth holding. I won't hold you responsible ether way just trying to get your opinion

i like cato, i would say sell covered calls to get paid (since dividend is cancelled) but the options have huge spreads and almost no volume

i'm holding cato/kss/jwn/bbby/mik/home/goos, it's been painful but i would rather be a buyer than seller of most retail at these levels

**chico2663** · 04-22-20, 09:58 AM

I sold for loss. Bougtt more xom and mro. Will hold until I make a gain and then get out. The only stocks I hold long-term are P&G in Facebook and Bristol Meyer

**chico2663** · 04-22-20, 09:59 AM

, although I owe you a couple beers cuz I made some gains on some of your pics