Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

You did not tell me how you arrived at that number other than giving me a bunch of conjecture that doesn’t apply to a true valuation, which was the word you used. I am not advocating that Tesla is a buy, or a sell. But I have seen you post as though you’re an expert and I have seen you reference a recent low in the Dow that was 1000 points above the actual low, and now I have seen you put a price target on a stock that is near 1/10 the current price and lower than the most bearish of Wall Street analysts.
I am just making sure posters read your posts with caution.

Good point, I see your look, I didn't really give you numbers to look at and I am more of a technical trader than a fundamentalist. As far as the low I gave you all, whatever time will tell on all things. I'm by no means an expert, and I would run from people who claim they are. I have been trading stocks for around 35+ years now and make about 25% of my yearly income from it, my other job is usually engineering industrial processes which has nothing to do with anything, but I guess if I was better at trading I would be doing it for 100% of the money.

My overall opinion about the market is that it is and will always be a fantasy land of carnival barkers spouting selling points about various companies while the big money does what it wants. So I usually follow the money and not worry too much about the fundamentals. Hell that's how I was long Tesla in the first place. For me however a company that can't make any earnings that is selling at $700 is going be on my list for shorting if the money stops coming in which I think is the case for Tesla. I'll stick by my $85 price and give it about 3 years to be realized before I capitulate and say I was wrong.

[homie1975]

Slurry and Greaser
Both of your respective opinions' are valued around here, so please keep posting.

Yes, TSLA certainly misses on earnings (what have they hit, once in 40+ quarters?) but the word I keep hearing about them is "disruptor" and "growth" so these must be among the speculative reasons they continue to hold high when it appears they should not.

[chico2663]

where the hell is bacon? Need something to short. lol

[Madison]

CNBC "about 60 tankers filled with oil". Tanker stocks way up. Is it time to think about shorting them? Can/Will they generate revenue sitting offshore with nowhere to offload??

[KVB]

CNBC "about 60 tankers filled with oil". Tanker stocks way up. Is it time to think about shorting them? Can/Will they generate revenue sitting offshore with nowhere to offload??

If the tanker is being rented to store oil, it is generating the revenue.

It's the producers and not just smaller companies that will go bankrupt with lasting low oil prices.

Tankers should be fine unitl oil starts moving again.

That might be a little while. I would be bullish on storage and tankers through at least the June expirations. These traders that got caught with their pants down and turned the market upside down will likely still have the same issue next month.

[d2bets]

Strong day, although some selling into the close might portend a reversal tomorrow. Really, the last couple of weeks have seen mostly sideways trading with some mild volatility in between. April 9 to 22 has been about 2730 to 2875. Sits right in the middle of that range now.

[Iona]

One of the dead bodies found from recent oil route.

Interactive Brokers Issues Statement on Crude Oil Contracts and Margin Loss

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

[milwaukee mike]

Strong day, although some selling into the close might portend a reversal tomorrow. Really, the last couple of weeks have seen mostly sideways trading with some mild volatility in between. April 9 to 22 has been about 2730 to 2875. Sits right in the middle of that range now.

i had over 2800 at bookmaker for the close... that was a kick in the nuts

[chico2663]

CNBC "about 60 tankers filled with oil". Tanker stocks way up. Is it time to think about shorting them? Can/Will they generate revenue sitting offshore with nowhere to offload??

if you remember trump just filled up the reserve by buying from Russia.

[Slurry Pumper]

Wow, finally a day where the market didn't move over 100 points either way. The curve flatten today in the market for sure. Still short the XLF, and now Tesla, and still picking up BA when at or around $135 or lower. Boy what I wouldn't give for a AP610 storage tank about now. Oil tankers and oil storage is lucrative right now. I also started picking up some beaten down oil stocks for the 5+ year horizon, so just liek with BA, I'm starting to gain shares of XOM (Exxon) little by little.

[Madison]

If the tanker is being rented to store oil, it is generating the revenue.

It's the producers and not just smaller companies that will go bankrupt with lasting low oil prices.

Tankers should be fine unitl oil starts moving again.

That might be a little while. I would be bullish on storage and tankers through at least the June expirations. These traders that got caught with their pants down and turned the market upside down will likely still have the same issue next month.

Thanks for your input!

[d2bets]

Wow, finally a day where the market didn't move over 100 points either way. The curve flatten today in the market for sure. Still short the XLF, and now Tesla, and still picking up BA when at or around $135 or lower. Boy what I wouldn't give for a AP610 storage tank about now. Oil tankers and oil storage is lucrative right now. I also started picking up some beaten down oil stocks for the 5+ year horizon, so just liek with BA, I'm starting to gain shares of XOM (Exxon) little by little.

It did fall intraday. Market was up almost 2% early and then gave it all back. Weak close. Expect tomorrow to be a rough one. Intel and Capital One reported weak and is falling after hours.

But yeah, after the huge drop and then big retracement, the last 2 weeks has been decidedly sideways between 2730 and 2875 and looking for direction. Any breakout out of those ranges will likely say which we are headed short-term. Should be able to hold 2730 tomorrow, but if not then it could get rough.

[Iona]

Another dead body found from the oil route - never would have predicted this one:

https://thestonkmarket.com/elementary-school-forced-to-take-possession-of-ten-million-barrels-of-oil/

Elementary school forced to take possession of ten million barrels of oil

Mr. Hilton said he doubled Sherwood’s endowment in a few months shorting the S&P 500 right before the economic collapse. “I felt like a genius,” Mark said. “Then I went long oil and it was the worst decision I ever made. I had no idea I had to take possession of these barrels when the May contracts expired.”

[milwaukee mike]

Another dead body found from the oil route - never would have predicted this one:

https://thestonkmarket.com/elementary-school-forced-to-take-possession-of-ten-million-barrels-of-oil/

Elementary school forced to take possession of ten million barrels of oil


Mr. Hilton said he doubled Sherwood’s endowment in a few months shorting the S&P 500 right before the economic collapse. “I felt like a genius,” Mark said. “Then I went long oil and it was the worst decision I ever made. I had no idea I had to take possession of these barrels when the May contracts expired.”

that has to be a lie... superintendents can't make investment decisions like that without going to prison

and total daily volume on those contracts is something like 5 million barrels, so he bought every contract for 2 days straight? give me a break

add to that it's from a satire site

[Iona]

Not sure it's a lie. An embellishment perhaps - please see link to second source.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-22/elementary-school-forced-take-possession-ten-million-barrels-oil

You are WAY off on the trading volume of 5 Million barrels; today the current contract (June) traded 1,235,218 contracts (1,000.00 barrels per contract). You can do the math.

As far as the prison thing is concerned, we still have due process in this country. If, and I do say if, he was given carte blanch on investment decisions I do not see how he is guilty of anything other than poor judgement.

BTW, the sole custodian of the second largest pension fund in the country (New York State) resides with one (1) person.

Just me 2 cents.

NYMEX WTI trades nearly 1.2 million contracts a day, with each contract equal to 1,000 barrels and valued at roughly $44,740.* The contract trades in increments of one cent per barrel.

[*=right]About This Report
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2,427	0
1,222,686	0	12,532	1,235,218	10,607	0	0	0	80,590	0	379,358	-80,696

[Iona]

3rd Dead Body Found in Oil Route. Bank of China / Retail Investors

Can't say I feel sorry for these guys ?

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-04-22/bank-of-china-stops-taking-bets-on-oil-futures-product-after-collapse-in-crude-prices-101545923.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-china-sold-oils-may-contract-into-a-historic-implosion-in-crude-and-retail-investors-may-haven-gotten-crushed-2020-04-22

[d2bets]

Will tomorrow be a little bloody or super bloody?

Earnings and announcement season gonna be a wake up call.

Next week will likely see some key level retests. I thought it might happen this week (unless tomorrow is super bad), but looks like next week to retest the 2,625 to 2,640 level.

[Iona]

Will tomorrow be a little bloody or super bloody?

Earnings and announcement season gonna be a wake up call.

Next week will likely see some key level retests. I thought it might happen this week (unless tomorrow is super bad), but looks like next week to retest the 2,625 to 2,640 level.

d2 - I wish I knew.

Gut tells me we will be lower tomorrow; the last hour today felt bearish - I will leave it at that.

Been trading the Diamonds (DIA) somewhat successfully (long at 230 and short at 238); it seems to be in a somewhat predictable range for now - famous last words :-)

BTW, the option premiums are still generous even for an expiration of tomorrow.

Bottom line: I don't know. Will probably fade the move (either up or down) with an option play somewhat near the $$$.

As always, BOL - stay profitable.

[milwaukee mike]

Not sure it's a lie. An embellishment perhaps - please see link to second source.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-22/elementary-school-forced-take-possession-ten-million-barrels-oil

You are WAY off on the trading volume of 5 Million barrels; today the current contract (June) traded 1,235,218 contracts (1,000.00 barrels per contract). You can do the math.

As far as the prison thing is concerned, we still have due process in this country. If, and I do say if, he was given carte blanch on investment decisions I do not see how he is guilty of anything other than poor judgement.

BTW, the sole custodian of the second largest pension fund in the country (New York State) resides with one (1) person.

Just me 2 cents.

NYMEX WTI trades nearly 1.2 million contracts a day, with each contract equal to 1,000 barrels and valued at roughly $44,740.* The contract trades in increments of one cent per barrel.

[*=right]About This Report
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2,427	0
1,222,686	0	12,532	1,235,218	10,607	0	0	0	80,590	0	379,358	-80,696

you're right the volume on those current contracts is a lot higher than i thought

but the article was still a spoof (stonk market is like the onion), maybe that person at zero hedge got duped too

the other stories on stonk market are all stuff like cramer quitting mad money, etc

[milwaukee mike]

Will tomorrow be a little bloody or super bloody?

Earnings and announcement season gonna be a wake up call.

Next week will likely see some key level retests. I thought it might happen this week (unless tomorrow is super bad), but looks like next week to retest the 2,625 to 2,640 level.

futures look pretty close to flat

i'll keep giving you those weekly odds if i win tomorrow

[d2bets]

futures look pretty close to flat

i'll keep giving you those weekly odds if i win tomorrow

OK, assuming you win tomorrow, I'll do it right now. 100 to 300 on the S&P closing under 2,640 on May 1.

[milwaukee mike]

OK, assuming you win tomorrow, I'll do it right now. 100 to 300 on the S&P closing under 2,640 on May 1.

sounds good, so it's an if bet

[chico2663]

Wow, finally a day where the market didn't move over 100 points either way. The curve flatten today in the market for sure. Still short the XLF, and now Tesla, and still picking up BA when at or around $135 or lower. Boy what I wouldn't give for a AP610 storage tank about now. Oil tankers and oil storage is lucrative right now. I also started picking up some beaten down oil stocks for the 5+ year horizon, so just liek with BA, I'm starting to gain shares of XOM (Exxon) little by little.

been picking them up and mro

[d2bets]

sounds good, so it's an if bet

Yup. Tomorrow's gonna be red, but I'm pretty sure it won't be that red, yet. Next week.

[Iona]

you're right the volume on those current contracts is a lot higher than i thought

but the article was still a spoof (stonk market is like the onion), maybe that person at zero hedge got duped too

the other stories on stonk market are all stuff like cramer quitting mad money, etc

Time, I guess, will tell; I would hope - and think - Zero Hedge would perform proper due diligence before releasing a story.

My source for the Bank of China and Interactive oil exposure is rock slid. The same source told me there are more "Dead Bodies" out there. Hint, if your trading platform only allows you to close - and not open - oil future positions be careful.

Mike, I have no reason to doubt the school districts oil losses. And, I have no interest either way.

Full disclosure: I am long XLE, XOP, and AMJ.

Time will tell - stay tuned.

As always Mike, stay healthy and profitable.

[chico2663]

put a little stake into cydy. Bout them at 2.69. They are saying it is going to hit tomorrow

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/health/2020/april/this-drug-could-calm-the-cytokine-storm-thats-killing-coronavirus-patients-nbsp

[chico2663]

zero hedge is a rag.

[milwaukee mike]

Time, I guess, will tell; I would hope - and think - Zero Hedge would perform proper due diligence before releasing a story.

My source for the Bank of China and Interactive oil exposure is rock slid. The same source told me there are more "Dead Bodies" out there. Hint, if your trading platform only allows you to close - and not open - oil future positions be careful.

Mike, I have no reason to doubt the school districts oil losses. And, I have no interest either way.

Full disclosure: I am long XLE, XOP, and AMJ.

Time will tell - stay tuned.

As always Mike, stay healthy and profitable.

oh there are definitely dead bodies

but elementary schools don't have endowments that allow superintendents to short stock futures, and buy commodity futures

does amj issue a K-1 form? if not then that's a good way to play mlp's without the tax consequences

[Iona]

oh there are definitely dead bodies

does amj issue a K-1 form? if not then that's a good way to play mlp's without the tax consequences

Purchased AMJ @ 18ish in February 2020; sadly, prior to the oil meltdown. So, do not know if I will get a K-1 for tax year 2020.

I received the March dividend (.43). Embarrassed to tell you, I don't even know if the dividends are qualified or non-qualified.

Full disclosure: The MLP was recommended to me as a dividend play. Yes, I was - and still am - chasing yield. At the time it was thought that the quarterly payments were safe. Now, not so sure. The current yield is kissing 20% which implies a high probability of default or reduction.

Tread carefully with this one :-)

[milwaukee mike]

Purchased AMJ @ 18ish in February 2020; sadly, prior to the oil meltdown. So, do not know if I will get a K-1 for tax year 2020.

I received the March dividend (.43). Embarrassed to tell you, I don't even know if the dividends are qualified or non-qualified.

Full disclosure: The MLP was recommended to me as a dividend play. Yes, I was - and still am - chasing yield. At the time it was thought that the quarterly payments were safe. Now, not so sure. The current yield is kissing 20% which implies a high probability of default or reduction.

Tread carefully with this one :-)

wish i would've gotten in at 6 but i think 12 is still decent

i have a high risk tolerance, why else would i be holding a bunch of hotel preferreds/bbby/mik/home

one stock i like a lot at these levels is MUX... trading at $1.04 and restarting production at their gold mines... could easily make 30cents/share next year, stock should double even if gold prices stay in the 1700s, but i think gold/silver go much higher, demand is much greater than supply at this point

[Iona]

wish i would've gotten in at 6 but i think 12 is still decent

i have a high risk tolerance, why else would i be holding a bunch of hotel preferreds/bbby/mik/home

one stock i like a lot at these levels is MUX... trading at $1.04 and restarting production at their gold mines... could easily make 30cents/share next year, stock should double even if gold prices stay in the 1700s, but i think gold/silver go much higher, demand is much greater than supply at this point

Milwaukee,

I will sit on my perch in "Left Field" and root for you with MUX. I do not have your risk tolerance; I trade GDX now and again, but that's about it.

As always, BOL (not that you need it).

[Shafted69]

stuck near S&P 500 2800

must be the crooked FEDs

[KVB]

If those fukkers bail out the oil or buy fuel and plane tickets in advance for the airlines I will shit an actual brick.

What does that say to the speculators? Those traders that that get caught with their pants down? They don't have nearly the risk they thought they had because the gov't will help out in a bad time? Shit, they could create a bad time while holding futures that count on the bail out.

Ridiculous.

What about other countries? "Hey, let's flood the market, the US won't let all those companies fail, they'll support us somewhere."

First we top of the reserves at 30 bucks a barrel in mid march, and now a potential sector bailout.

Unreal.

[Iona]

If those fukkers bail out the oil or buy fuel and plane tickets in advance for the airlines I will shit an actual brick.
First we top of the reserves at 30 bucks a barrel in mid march, and now a potential sector bailout.

Unreal.

Can't be a bonafide 3rd World Country without nationalizing your Oil industry :-)

[KVB]

Can't be a bonafide 3rd World Country without nationalizing your Oil industry :-)

Don't forget the airlines.