Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Iona]

Earnings before the open tomorrow:

[d2bets]

nowhere else to go with cash is the biggest reason for this quick rebound imho

i'd still rather buy stocks with a 3%+ dividend than treasuries paying 0.6%

take the big boys out of the equation and a lot of stocks are still super cheap... if someone told me 3 months ago i could buy kss for 19 or bp for 24 i'd sign up! so why not buy them now?

That's kind of a bad reason, no? Overvalue assets because nothing else is attractive? 3% dividend doesn't mean that much if you buy an asset at $10 that's really worth $5.

[Snowball]

Bought October USO calls.

[Iona]

I know most have no interest in the oil drama from last week, but I find it fascinating.

I would think that WTI contracts going forward will have similar language that prevents prices falling below zero. Assuming, of course, it is even legal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-oil-prices-idUSL4N2CI3UK

SINGAPORE, April 30 (Reuters) - Companies selling crude and condensate in Asia have added a new clause in contracts that prevents prices of their oil from falling below $0, eight sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

[Iona]

Bought October USO calls.

What strike ?

GL, I own XLE.

[homie1975]

Party might be over? Time to unwind a bit?

Early May 2019 the S&P 500 was under 2800. Now it's over 2900?

maybe true but you referenced a 2640 SPX key support point and think we have that as the furthest landing spot if the sell off continues over the next few weeks/month

[Snowball]

What strike ?

GL, I own XLE.

nineteens

[Iona]

nineteens

Hope Oil rips - BOL !

[Snowball]

Hope Oil rips - BOL !

it's not going to rip but they will gerrymander it higher because too much depends on
at least a functional price. Trump will fill the national reserves stockpile.
Holding for at least Memorial Day weekend - then will reconsider moving into sportsbetting stocks.

Nine Companies Rent U.S. Emergency Oil Reserve Space for 23 Mln Barrels: Official - The New York Times

[KVB]

...Trump will fill the national reserves stockpile...

That card has been played. He topped things off in mid march around $30.

There's less than 80 million in room left. The buying opportunity now, or any current headlines conveniently forget that it was ordered in March.

Not sure how much was bought in the wake of the March directive.

[Snowball]

That card has been played. He topped things off in mid march around $30.

There's less than 80 million in room left. The buying opportunity now, or any current headlines conveniently forget that it was ordered in March.

Not sure how much was bought in the wake of the March directive.

today's New York Times article says he wants to fill it to the brim
it will have a factor on the market just in time for some return to consumption

[Iona]

today's New York Times article says he wants to fill it to the brim
it will have a factor on the market just in time for some return to consumption

Very STRONG close for oil.

Anybody know why ??

[KVB]

today's New York Times article says he wants to fill it to the brim
it will have a factor on the market just in time for some return to consumption

That's the 75 or 77 or so million I'm talking about.

It's about 4 days worth of US consumption.

That "fill to the brim" is more of a headline and political stunt at this point. My point was that they arleady made their move, pre SARS-CoV-2.

But like I said, not sure how much was acutally bought up at $30. Trump used the move as a political stunt as well, touting how he was aving Americans and the oil market.

They buy now can be hailed as historic, but in the wake of the last transaction, it's more like laughable.

[milwaukee mike]

That's kind of a bad reason, no? Overvalue assets because nothing else is attractive? 3% dividend doesn't mean that much if you buy an asset at $10 that's really worth $5.

why do you say it's overvalued, or only worth $5 if the market is telling you it's worth $10? would a $25 trillion stock market really be that inefficient for any great length of time?

stocks are worth the stream of their future earnings (or a combination of that and their balance sheet equity)... those future earnings are worth a lot more if the alternative investments pay close to nothing.

if beef was $800/lb then bacon would be worth more than $5/lb, even if it costs the exact same amount to produce it

[d2bets]

why do you say it's overvalued, or only worth $5 if the market is telling you it's worth $10? would a $25 trillion stock market really be that inefficient for any great length of time?

stocks are worth the stream of their future earnings (or a combination of that and their balance sheet equity)... those future earnings are worth a lot more if the alternative investments pay close to nothing.

if beef was $800/lb then bacon would be worth more than $5/lb, even if it costs the exact same amount to produce it

Well you could say the same thing a month ago arguing that it couldn't go up 30% in a month, but it did. Could be inefficient then, could be inefficient now. Honestly nothing in the economy or the virus was that surprising or changing within that month. It was all sentiment. It had gotten too bearish and now probably too bullish. Market usually overcorrects on momentum and short-covering. Probably headed back down 10-15% in the next month, which is a fairer price than either extreme.

[milwaukee mike]

Well you could say the same thing a month ago arguing that it couldn't go up 30% in a month, but it did. Could be inefficient then, could be inefficient now. Honestly nothing in the economy or the virus was that surprising or changing within that month. It was all sentiment. It had gotten too bearish and now probably too bullish. Market usually overcorrects on momentum and short-covering. Probably headed back down 10-15% in the next month, which is a fairer price than either extreme.

if that's a "probably" then will you take 2-1 odds?

your 100 points against my 200... you get down 10% or more on the s&p so anything under 2621 at the close on may 29

[khicks26]

[d2bets]

if that's a "probably" then will you take 2-1 odds?

your 100 points against my 200... you get down 10% or more on the s&p so anything under 2621 at the close on may 29

I don't like the under at the close on a date specific. I'd do that under 2621 at any time during May.

[milwaukee mike]

I don't like the under at the close on a date specific. I'd do that under 2621 at any time during May.

i'll pass for now then... market is still pretty volatile, could definitely have a flash crash at any point

[Enkhbat]

Casino stocks are getting mauled. What is going on guys?

[milwaukee mike]

Casino stocks are getting mauled. What is going on guys?

some profit taking and bad news

ppp loan money is now essentially taxable (no deduction for wages/etc paid with forgiven loan) so that takes $200 billion out of the economy

casinos aren't just going to go back to business as usual... what the slot floor, table games, buffet, shows look like is anyone's guess

[Iona]

WTF ?????



Elon Musk

@elonmusk


Tesla stock price is too high imo
11:11 AM · May 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[homie1975]

elon musk has to be the richest retard in the history of the world (apologies on my use of the word "retard")

i don't own the stock but i do root against it and him daily.

the car is decent tho

[HockeyRocks]

The slide in the market today seems to be based on Douchebag Don's running his gums about Chinese tariffs again. That's what he does best. He thinks by threatening other countries gets the job done. He does this becausae he can't negotiate his way out of a bag with both ends open.

[d2bets]

WTF ?????



Elon Musk

@elonmusk


Tesla stock price is too high imo
11:11 AM · May 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

O/U on lawsuit filing: 45 minutes

[Iona]

Monday before the bell:

[KVB]

WTF ?????



Elon Musk

@elonmusk


Tesla stock price is too high imo
11:11 AM · May 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[KVB]

Unreal if true.

[d2bets]

Musk will be out at Tesla by the end of the month.

[KVB]

Thought the SEC required compliance to monitor tweets?

This sounds like a new batch of violations and violations of his violations.

Dude doesn't even inhale and still does this shit....lol

[jjgold]

Trying to predict the market on a daily basis is suicide financially

[KVB]

Trying to predict the market on a daily basis is suicide financially

If we could just read Musk's tweets right before he tweets them, we could never lose.

[Snowball]

Glad I bought yesterday.

Trump: It's a great time to buy oil, US to buy 75 million barrells for reserves.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=75+million+barrels&t=ffsb&df=d&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D7WGyIB7JxhE

[khicks26]

Chorus
The percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams

But today you just read that the man was shot dead
By a gun that didn't make any noise
But it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
Was the low spark of high-heeled boys, high-heeled boys

If I gave you everything that I owned
And asked for nothing in return
Would you do the same for me as I would for you?

Or take me for a ride
And strip me of everything including my pride
But spirit is something that no one destroys

And the sound that I'm hearing is only the sound
Of the low spark of high-heeled boys, heeled boys


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[Iona]