Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

okay so let's say the market was oversold and then it was overbought, that just means we are in a settling stage right now.

D2 you've referenced the 2640 SPX key support level. that is apprx 6.5% below where we are right now and seems very reasonable as the next drop point with sideways trading and then another slight run up after more good news (vaccine news, therapies, and more stimulus)

PPT will be ready to move yet again........

[d2bets]

i think a lot of weird things

if warren buffett would've just held all his cash in a money market fund, he would have about the same wealth as he has now... so what made him such a great investor? he took advantage of inherited wealth and inflation

short list of buffett's corruption...
illegal acquisition of wesco
antitrust charges in buffalo news takeover
salomon brothers shenanigans (and $290 million fine paid by buffett)
general re/aig shenanigans (and $92 million fine paid by buffett)
exploitative dealings in the financial crisis 2008/2009 (goldman sachs/etc)

I'm not going to analyze it, but that can't possible be true. If so, then how come no one else ever has had his kind of success? No one has ever taken advantage of inflation? I don't think he had any huge inheritance as far as I know.

[milwaukee mike]

I'm not going to analyze it, but that can't possible be true. If so, then how come no one else ever has had his kind of success? No one has ever taken advantage of inflation? I don't think he had any huge inheritance as far as I know.

my comment might have been a stretch, but keep in mind in the 1980s and early 1990s money market accounts were paying crazy rates on dividends, like 18% for years

every real estate investor has taken advantage of inflation... not too many people amass $70 billion but i have quite a few clients in the $50-100 million range all because of real estate inflation

[Iona]

Earnings After the close:

[Iona]

Earnings this week:

[MinnesotaFats]

11% on a 6 month TBill in 1980

8% in 85

That's a 6 month TBill. Today its 0%, actually negative in some parts of the world.

[d2bets]

my comment might have been a stretch, but keep in mind in the 1980s and early 1990s money market accounts were paying crazy rates on dividends, like 18% for years

every real estate investor has taken advantage of inflation... not too many people amass $70 billion but i have quite a few clients in the $50-100 million range all because of real estate inflation

OK, yeah, well that's a pretty big difference. Buffet's time may have (likely has) passed, and his "genius" has been exaggerated, but there's no denying how successful he has been with his discipline. Plenty of people have inherited a lot and done little, but I don't think Buffet really inherited much. He amassed his wealth through good decisions.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK people you just knew the market was going to have a rough time as it moved up towards the 200 day average last week, so the last few days may be an indicator of some rough times ahead. The financials still are not even participating much less leading. I can't stress how bad this is. The fang stocks are trying to hang in there so I expect the S&P will hold around 2650 or so for a while. Allot of the potential good news is baked into this cake, but the potential bad news is ignored. You know the impending fight with China over how they Fukked the world isn't gonna be pretty, and you just know the news is going to be pointing out every uptick in people dropping dead across the nation. I'm still short XLF, and probably will be for the summer. Got stopped out of my Tesla short so I'll wait on that one for awhile. Boeing is in consolidation and holding up in the 125 range for now.

So overall a couple of 3 weeks ago I told you to load up and now I'm telling you to take profits if you haven't already, actually you should have been taking profits last week but if you're late take em now. Keep stop losses on all your long positions, and get ready to short if we break down below 2650 on the S&P. I know you don't believe it, but 19500 (dow), yeah I know its not really the low but that is my low number, is probably the direction we are going before we see levels over 3000 on the S&P.

This is a dangerous time to be loading up tread lightly.

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

Should i sell my roku stocks or hold. Its a good chunk of my portfolio

[Slurry Pumper]

Should i sell my roku stocks or hold. Its a good chunk of my portfolio

Its been consolidating and today it has relative strength, but it has moved under the 200 day, I would place a stop loss at around or just below the 50 day moving average (about) $100, and I would add if it gets up around $130.

[Snowball]

Should i sell my roku stocks or hold. Its a good chunk of my portfolio

Sell. Tgt 110/112 then if fail, Gap Fill.

[homie1975]

And here we are on green again...

[Fred The Hammer]

Just started screwing around in April and made about $625 on MGM in about 3 weeks. 2 buy/sells on the rollercoaster, but I'm not so sure that it comes back quickly this time. Vegas may reopen, but its not going to be the same. Even the gambleaholic Chinese stayed away from Macau in April. They were down like 96%

I bought ET (Energy Transfer) the other day 200 @ $7.87. They have a dividend of .30/share on Wednesday. Big pipeline player and they're getting back some of their losses from this shitstorm by storing some of this excess oil. I figure its got to pick up this summer at some point? It was $11.50 on March 3 before the double whammy of the oil war between Saudi/Russia and Corona. $11 means another $600+

[Madison]

Chorus
The percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams

But today you just read that the man was shot dead
By a gun that didn't make any noise
But it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
Was the low spark of high-heeled boys, high-heeled boys

If I gave you everything that I owned
And asked for nothing in return
Would you do the same for me as I would for you?

Or take me for a ride
And strip me of everything including my pride
But spirit is something that no one destroys

And the sound that I'm hearing is only the sound
Of the low spark of high-heeled boys, heeled boys


<font size="3"><span style="display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Programme,sans-serif; font-size: 17.93px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 100; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">

Love the Avatar and one of my all time favorite songs.

[Madison]

I don't understand folks who are fixated on dividend stocks. I have about 80K in play and I'd be lucky if I got > $100 in dividends. OK, maybe $200. Smaller investors should ignore dividends and pay attention to growth especially the younger you are.

[Shafted69]

FEDs must be buying stocks ahead of the nasty unemployment report this Friday.

[chico2663]

I don't understand folks who are fixated on dividend stocks. I have about 80K in play and I'd be lucky if I got > $100 in dividends. OK, maybe $200. Smaller investors should ignore dividends and pay attention to growth especially the younger you are.

made 5000 in divies in less than 3 months

[milwaukee mike]

I don't understand folks who are fixated on dividend stocks. I have about 80K in play and I'd be lucky if I got > $100 in dividends. OK, maybe $200. Smaller investors should ignore dividends and pay attention to growth especially the younger you are.

a lot of ways to skin a cat

i chased big dividends in hotel stocks (because cds/treasuries/etc were close to 0) which worked right until it didn't

you're right, the huge growth stocks are a better play long-term, i'm usually even worse at picking those than dividend stocks though

[homie1975]

FEDs must be buying stocks ahead of the nasty unemployment report this Friday.

the last 4 thursdays have yielded green all four times if i recall correctly. after the second one i started buying again. after the third i continued buying. it became clear to me that there is a huge disconnect between the market and the true state of the economy.

play the same game, is what i say. i started playing it 2/24 and only paused for two weeks after the 3/23 low day.

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

the last 4 thursdays have yielded green all four times if i recall correctly. after the second one i started buying again. after the third i continued buying. it became clear to me that there is a huge disconnect between the market and the true state of the economy.

play the same game, is what i say. i started playing it 2/24 and only paused for two weeks after the 3/23 low day.

so buy heavy on wednesday and sell on friday?

[homie1975]

so buy heavy on wednesday and sell on friday?

I'm long term I buy and hold. If a position drops 10%+ I typically buy more

[MinnesotaFats]

the last 4 thursdays have yielded green all four times if i recall correctly. after the second one i started buying again. after the third i continued buying. it became clear to me that there is a huge disconnect between the market and the true state of the economy.

play the same game, is what i say. i started playing it 2/24 and only paused for two weeks after the 3/23 low day.

I have never seen a disconnect or lapse in reality like this before.

In fact, it's eerily similar to the great crash, caused by margin stock buying, but this time, the margin players are the US Government and the companies themselves.

While Joe 6 pack has no job, no savings, no equity and lots of debt, the big companies borrow more money from the Fed and banks, to pay themselves while staying in "business" w no earnings because Joe 6 Pack cannot participate in the consumer economy.

How does the Gov't get its money back? $27 trillion in debt. Need another $700b in 2 months.... how you ever going to create enough wealth to tax if the middle class is hopeless?

[guitarjosh]

I have never seen a disconnect or lapse in reality like this before.

In fact, it's eerily similar to the great crash, caused by margin stock buying, but this time, the margin players are the US Government and the companies themselves.

While Joe 6 pack has no job, no savings, no equity and lots of debt, the big companies borrow more money from the Fed and banks, to pay themselves while staying in "business" w no earnings because Joe 6 Pack cannot participate in the consumer economy.

How does the Gov't get its money back? $27 trillion in debt. Need another $700b in 2 months.... how you ever going to create enough wealth to tax if the middle class is hopeless?

Margin debt is actually down YOY, you typically see it higher by 50%-60% minimum YOY before you see a major market top.

[guitarjosh]

I have never seen a disconnect or lapse in reality like this before.

In fact, it's eerily similar to the great crash, caused by margin stock buying, but this time, the margin players are the US Government and the companies themselves.

While Joe 6 pack has no job, no savings, no equity and lots of debt, the big companies borrow more money from the Fed and banks, to pay themselves while staying in "business" w no earnings because Joe 6 Pack cannot participate in the consumer economy.

How does the Gov't get its money back? $27 trillion in debt. Need another $700b in 2 months.... how you ever going to create enough wealth to tax if the middle class is hopeless?

[homie1975]

^
And entire fleets of copters containing cash are available. the treasury and fed will not stop throwing money at this until they feel totally comfy that the stock market is safe from another major plunge.

[milwaukee mike]

I have never seen a disconnect or lapse in reality like this before.

In fact, it's eerily similar to the great crash, caused by margin stock buying, but this time, the margin players are the US Government and the companies themselves.

While Joe 6 pack has no job, no savings, no equity and lots of debt, the big companies borrow more money from the Fed and banks, to pay themselves while staying in "business" w no earnings because Joe 6 Pack cannot participate in the consumer economy.

How does the Gov't get its money back? $27 trillion in debt. Need another $700b in 2 months.... how you ever going to create enough wealth to tax if the middle class is hopeless?

but the bigger picture is where else are you gonna put money? at some point we're gonna have huge inflation and/or a financial reset, so you would be better off in hard assets/stocks than in cash/fixed income

totally agree that the debt is unpayable, if you add in unfunded ss/medicare, then we're at 100 trillion (1 million for every household lol)

[milwaukee mike]

good long-term opportunity here for dave and busters (play) at 11

[homie1975]

^
exactly. there are tens of milliions who are really unaffected financially by the lockdown and need/want to grow their money and the stock market is the best vehicle right now to do that. RE is a big unknown right now but stocks are available for the taking at least they were the last week of Feb and the first three weeks of march. plenty of discounted positions still out there.

if you don't need a portion of cash for 4-5 years, part it in $BA (boeing) and don't touch it until the end of Trump's next term. it will be at minimum 3X what it is today ($130 up to $400)

[Fred The Hammer]

Oil rebound with PAA. It was $14.28 on March 2nd before this shitstorm hit. People are going to get back on the roads. You can only sit at home for so long. Old people are going to die anyway.....thats what old people do.

[Snowball]

I stayed away from the stock market for a long time because it was tremendously overvalued
and held up by quants and algos.. but with the virus crash, I knew it was a screaming buy.
I am mostly an options trader but will do the stocks also. Not getting into the algo-driven trading.
Only swing positions, weeks-months holds. My new watchlist is about 30.
All trades I will try to post here. Only working with the $1200 stim check. Waited for it and watched
all the plays I had marked up a ton. But it's ok. Anyway you see my first buy, posted here last week,
in 7 years was USO Oct 19's for 3.45. Plan to hold until at least first week of June.

I have turned 1-2k into 80 bagger in short time before. we'll see.

[Iona]

Earnings after the close:

[homie1975]

I stayed away from the stock market for a long time because it was tremendously overvalued
and held up by quants and algos.. but with the virus crash, I knew it was a screaming buy.
I am mostly an options trader but will do the stocks also. Not getting into the algo-driven trading.
Only swing positions, weeks-months holds. My new watchlist is about 30.
All trades I will try to post here. Only working with the $1200 stim check. Waited for it and watched
all the plays I had marked up a ton. But it's ok. Anyway you see my first buy, posted here last week,
in 7 years was USO Oct 19's for 3.45. Plan to hold until at least first week of June.

I have turned 1-2k into 80 bagger in short time before. we'll see.

all the best and keep us posted! good luck !!

[milwaukee mike]

i think disney is a weird situation... if you take the family to dave and busters OK

if you take the family to disney world, and they do a temperature check, 1 of the 5 has an elevated temperature, what do you do? can you even go back to the hotel (if it's on site)?

fear of that unknown could really crush their tourism business, added to the movie business woes, and the tv (espn/abc) woes

[chico2663]

Bought fubo today at 10.30. Does anyone have an opinion on this stock?

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

I stayed away from the stock market for a long time because it was tremendously overvalued
and held up by quants and algos.. but with the virus crash, I knew it was a screaming buy.
I am mostly an options trader but will do the stocks also. Not getting into the algo-driven trading.
Only swing positions, weeks-months holds. My new watchlist is about 30.
All trades I will try to post here. Only working with the $1200 stim check. Waited for it and watched
all the plays I had marked up a ton. But it's ok. Anyway you see my first buy, posted here last week,
in 7 years was USO Oct 19's for 3.45. Plan to hold until at least first week of June.

I have turned 1-2k into 80 bagger in short time before. we'll see.

Good luck