Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-19, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

ROYer
you are another of my guys here and i love reading your thoughts. so since this was a nibble after friday's IPO, i only took a small position. i did not put a stop loss order in i typically do not because when a stock drops say 15% or more, i typically buy more. i'm concerned that if i use the stop loss and then i immediately buy shares again because i like the lower price, it's going to be considered a wash sale.

sorry for the rookie scenario but please let me know your thoughts on this strategy. when i take a position, i usually put only 25% of the amount of my portfolio that i have allocated for the stock. so i only bought 25% of the shares of LYFT that i am willing to commit to. i am willing to buy 3 more times at 25% each if it drops another 15%+

I hear ya loud and clear.

I don't always use stops either.

I would on lyft because no one has any idea what the value is. That will be settled in time. It may be a $6 stock it may be a $600 stock and trade at a 300 multiple who knows.

I would use a stop in lyft's case because it could go down to $6 and still be a successful company. Now if you know something about lyft or really believe in it long term and/or plan to hold it at least a few years then use the ole "fall on your sword" strategy and skip the stop.

**homie1975** · 04-01-19, 06:57 PM

I don't give a shit if anyone thinks I'm a kiss-ass, but EVERY BEGINNER who is buying IPO stocks in this day and age needs to read Roy's post above.

ROY, Josh, KVB are teaching me so much. My wife and young children thank u. U are helping a middle class working stiff like me help build a better life for my family. I mean that. THANK YOU

**kidcudi92** · 04-01-19, 07:22 PM

Lyft was 20x oversubscribed

and here we are

also - rolled into some $ACB may 10C

**kidcudi92** · 04-01-19, 07:28 PM

also

somebody took 2158 Jun 275 $TSLA puts at $23.24 in one trade

big fukkin trade $5m+ options short or some type of huge protection

**RoyBacon** · 04-01-19, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by kidcudi92

also

somebody took 2158 Jun 275 $TSLA puts at $23.24 in one trade

big fukkin trade $5m+ options short or some type of huge protection

Got to be a tad careful reading those tea leaves. The buyer could of bought 215k shares and is using the Puts as Stop Loss insurance.

I've made some really good money shorting TSLA calls and puts.

You can sell; Aug 30 Puts for .40 and the Aug 560 calls for .40 and collect .80. Better than gold.

**KVB** · 04-02-19, 01:34 PM

LYFT...

Seaport Global iniates a sell with $42 price target.

Analyst Michael Ward...

Seaport Global analyst Michael Ward initiated coverage of Lyft with a Sell rating and $42 price target. The shares closed yesterday down 12%, or $9.28, to $69.01. In order to justify the stock's current market valuation, investors need to "take a big leap of faith" that the millennials and later generations will forego ownership of a car and opt instead for reliance on a ridesharing service, Ward tells investors in a research note. However, "despite the optics of vehicles being an underutilized asset," the analyst believes people will continue to own their own vehicles as primary transportation. The ridesharing market will continue to grow and Lyft will be a prime competitor, but the company's current valuation levels "reflect an overly optimistic view of consumer behavior in the U.S," says Ward.,,,

I doubt the market is that far off, but keep watching that one Homie.

**KVB** · 04-02-19, 01:36 PM

Here are the top 20 Decliners so far with last trade over 5 and avg 5 day trading volume over 250,000...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
DWDP	36.40	-18.02	-33.11	DOWDUPONT INC
MELI	509.83	-8.28	-1.60	MERCADOLIBRE INC
WBA	55.40	-8.09	-12.74	WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE
ULTA	347.66	-4.89	-1.39	ULTA BEAUTY INC
HUM	263.60	-4.73	-1.76	HUMANA INC
SHOP	201.44	-4.60	-2.23	SHOPIFY INC
UGI	51.05	-4.34	-7.84	UGI CORP
ABC	75.15	-3.94	-4.98	AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP
TSLA	285.34	-3.84	-1.33	TESLA INC
CVLT	62.05	-3.57	-5.44	COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC
DECK	143.27	-3.57	-2.43	DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP
MDB	144.64	-3.30	-2.23	MONGODB INC
VIVO	14.36	-3.24	-18.41	MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE INC
CP	206.05	-3.23	-1.54	CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY
RYAAY	71.88	-3.20	-4.26	RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
DPZ	246.40	-3.06	-1.22	DOMINO'S PIZZA INC
MCK	115.90	-2.94	-2.47	MCKESSON CORP
IIPR	77.06	-2.88	-3.60	INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PPT
EEFT	142.10	-2.84	-1.96	EURONET WORLDWIDE INC
MASI	137.00	-2.80	-2.00	MASIMO CORP

**homie1975** · 04-03-19, 11:43 AM

the psychological warfare the market takes on one. i sold SOXL and TECL back on 3/21 right before they dropped big on Fri 3/22. i saw the surge on that Thurs and felt it was time to take the profit. lucky timing. now everything is surging and i feel like i am missing out on the good stuff. perusing hundreds of symbols looking for an entry point somewhere on something but i know it is NOT the right thing to do. it goes against my principles because i know once i buy the stocks will sell off and i will be stuck in a red position.

**KVB** · 04-03-19, 12:16 PM

Here are the top 20 Decliners with last trade over 5 and avg 5 day trading volume over 250,000...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
NOC	265.80	-7.53	-2.76	NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP
RTN	180.04	-5.77	-3.11	RAYTHEON CO
SPR	87.91	-4.58	-4.95	SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDIN
BA	386.42	-4.33	-1.11	BOEING CO
CXO	107.92	-3.67	-3.29	CONCHO RESOURCES INC
LMT	299.56	-3.54	-1.17	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
HUM	258.91	-3.41	-1.30	HUMANA INC
REGN	411.96	-2.86	-0.69	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS
BABA	179.23	-2.51	-1.38	ALIBABA GROUP HLDG
MLM	202.95	-2.48	-1.21	MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS
XEC	66.11	-2.45	-3.57	CIMAREX ENERGY CO
CHTR	344.20	-2.43	-0.70	CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS IN
INCY	84.42	-2.28	-2.63	INCYTE CORP
VAR	139.72	-2.25	-1.58	VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS IN
PM	85.80	-2.21	-2.51	PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATION
HII	208.66	-2.16	-1.02	HUNTINGTON INGALLS IND IN
PEN	142.30	-2.14	-1.48	PENUMBRA INC
FANG	100.39	-2.10	-2.05	DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC
STNE	40.10	-2.05	-4.86	STONECO LTD
PXD	146.29	-1.89	-1.28	PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES

**homie1975** · 04-03-19, 01:18 PM

Sold LYFT for a tiny baby like profit

**RoyBacon** · 04-03-19, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

Sold LYFT for a tiny baby like profit

Good. Of course now it's going to $120 but too high risk.

**homie1975** · 04-03-19, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Good. Of course now it's going to $120 but too high risk.

I wholeheartedly agree.

**kidcudi92** · 04-04-19, 07:14 AM

$tsla 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

**RoyBacon** · 04-04-19, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by kidcudi92

$tsla 

Yeaaa TSLA down $30. Fvvk I'm short 3 Apr 5 265 puts. Looks like I'm about to buy in at 265. Bassstards!

**RoyBacon** · 04-04-19, 01:53 PM

BABA and BIDU putting on a helluva show this week.

I'm going to sell a good portion of both off tomorrow at the close.

**homie1975** · 04-04-19, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

BABA and BIDU putting on a helluva show this week.

I'm going to sell a good portion of both off tomorrow at the close.

ROYer
Are u sensing a broad sell off next week or did u hit your target return on these 2 and just want to ring the register?

The market feels quite frothy

**RoyBacon** · 04-04-19, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

ROYer
Are u sensing a broad sell off next week or did u hit your target return on these 2 and just want to ring the register?

The market feels quite frothy

Actually I sold calls against much of my positions and they are now in the money. So I have two choices; buy back the calls or let the stock be called away.

I don't do the sensing thing. I figured out years ago my crystal ball is crap. I will grab those stocks back at some point and it could even be at higher prices. They are both quite extended so I'm not too worried about them running away and hiding from me.

**homie1975** · 04-05-19, 11:11 PM

So I've been talking to uber and lyft drivers. One lyft driver told me his car is a rental thru hertz and lyft pays for the car itself plus the insurance and maint is all paid for. He only pays for gas. He said lyft is trying to get more drivers on the road hence they're doing this. They're obviously trying to take market share from UBER but if they're paying that much to get it their earnings will fall way short while usage is high and market share is gained. Will The Street care more abt that or will it focus on the earnings misses?

**RoyBacon** · 04-06-19, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

So I've been talking to uber and lyft drivers. One lyft driver told me his car is a rental thru hertz and lyft pays for the car itself plus the insurance and maint is all paid for. He only pays for gas. He said lyft is trying to get more drivers on the road hence they're doing this. They're obviously trying to take market share from UBER but if they're paying that much to get it their earnings will fall way short while usage is high and market share is gained. Will The Street care more abt that or will it focus on the earnings misses?

Most of my Uber drivers also drive for lyvt, if not all. I ask them what is the ratio of your rides and it's always about 8 to 1. Lyft may do a lot better in some areas.

I wouldn't play the earnings game this soon after the IPO. The first two reports will be spot on. They were heavily vetted by the underwriters and SEC down to the last thumbnail.

Seems to me lyft should do whatever it can to grab some market share. There is no shame in being Pepsi to Coke. But they don't want to slip to Big Red status.

**KVB** · 04-09-19, 11:41 AM

Here are the top 20 decliners so far today with last trade over 5 and avg 5 day trading volume over 250,000...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
ZGNX	39.89	-11.96	-23.07	ZOGENIX INC
NVS	83.95	-10.98	-11.57	NOVARTIS AG
GOOG	1,196.67	-7.16	-0.59	ALPHABET INC
ALGN	285.99	-6.71	-2.29	ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC
PNR	38.73	-6.53	-14.43	PENTAIR PLC
GWW	309.15	-5.80	-1.84	GRAINGER (W W) INC
GOOGL	1,202.51	-5.77	-0.48	ALPHABET INC
COHR	151.78	-5.02	-3.20	COHERENT INC
BA	369.60	-4.92	-1.31	BOEING CO
BKNG	1,784.00	-4.72	-0.26	BOOKING HOLDINGS INC
DE	160.50	-4.50	-2.73	DEERE & CO
SAP	110.70	-4.23	-3.68	SAP SE
WYNN	140.72	-4.14	-2.85	WYNN RESORTS LTD
SOXL	159.64	-3.99	-2.44	DIREXION DAILY SEMI BULL
BLK	442.35	-3.79	-0.85	BLACKROCK INC
IPGP	165.30	-3.66	-2.17	IPG PHOTONICS CORP
LULU	166.13	-3.64	-2.14	LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
MIDD	133.47	-3.40	-2.48	MIDDLEBY CORP
ULTA	351.08	-3.39	-0.96	ULTA BEAUTY INC
LMT	302.64	-3.02	-0.99	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP

**antifoil** · 04-12-19, 02:00 PM

chevron bought anadarko today for 33 billion. i expect more of the top oil companies to expand their reach in the permain basin.

they are letting all of the smaller guys do all the work and once the pipeline infrastructure is there and fracking technology has decreased in cost there will be more buyouts like this.

**homie1975** · 04-16-19, 02:24 PM

one word: WOW

**KVB** · 04-16-19, 02:42 PM

Qualcomm soaring, sending semi's higher in general I think.

Crazy announcement between QCOM and AAPL.

Been lagging on this list...The top 20 decliners so far today with last trade over 5 and avg 5 day trading volume over 250K...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
ANTM	244.32	-18.56	-7.06	ANTHEM INC
HUM	236.51	-17.49	-6.89	HUMANA INC
ISRG	560.41	-16.40	-2.84	INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
MELI	498.25	-15.42	-3.00	MERCADOLIBRE INC
CI	151.09	-12.73	-7.77	CIGNA CORP
HCA	114.61	-12.48	-9.82	HCA HEALTHCARE INC
AMED	116.26	-12.36	-9.61	AMEDISYS INC
WCG	259.16	-10.73	-3.98	WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS INC
MOH	122.07	-9.90	-7.50	MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC
TMO	268.16	-9.40	-3.39	THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC
WVE	24.65	-9.38	-27.56	WAVE LIFE SCIENCES LTD
LHCG	99.09	-9.19	-8.49	LHC GROUP INC
WAT	240.40	-8.54	-3.43	WATERS CORP
UNH	222.10	-8.10	-3.52	UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
REGN	367.64	-7.86	-2.09	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS
IMUX	16.50	-7.62	-31.61
SPG	176.97	-7.54	-4.08	SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC
COO	288.75	-6.87	-2.32	COOPER COMPANIES INC
ILMN	328.47	-6.66	-1.99	ILLUMINA INC
EQIX	453.44	-6.56	-1.43	EQUINIX INC

**homie1975** · 04-16-19, 03:07 PM

NFLX crashing after the bell on the earnings call............

**homie1975** · 04-18-19, 11:48 AM

monster earnings the next two weeks for the largest holdings of QQQ:

- FB and MSFT on 4/24
- AMZN and INTC on 4/25
- GOOGL on 4/28
- AAPL on 4/30

**homie1975** · 04-18-19, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Good luck with that. If you back test it you will find you make a fortune when you buy at an all time high. They are usually followed up with many many more.

I would agree these valuations are very high. You look at CAT, great company, but historically trades at 14x earnings and is now trading at 21x next years earnings. That's a lot of skin to grow into. But Q1 is going to show accelerating earnings. The only question now is are prices too far ahead of even great earnings.

In about 4 weeks we get our first Q1 reports. Watch how traders treat them. If they are solid and stocks sells off it will be a tell-tale sign. But if they jump up then I would expect the rally to continue.

ROYer your post from 3/11/2018 is above. I believe you. I took a large position (large for me) in QQQ. I expect a climb to new highs and beyond over the next few weeks

**homie1975** · 04-22-19, 10:20 AM

huge week here, Boys. are you ready? we are set to hit AT highs and as ROY said, history shows it just leads to continued new highs. I am on the QQQ train. who is with me ??

**RoyBacon** · 04-22-19, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

huge week here, Boys. are you ready? we are set to hit AT highs and as ROY said, history shows it just leads to continued new highs. I am on the QQQ train. who is with me ??

Good for you. Back in the green on qqq which is a little like buying apple and amzn.

Money is getting dragged in to this market sceaming and kicking.

My good buddy Josh brought up the rate inversion and I took the opposite side saying sell bonds and hold stocks. So far it's working out as the inversion has modified and bonds continue to go down. I've sold bonds everyday for 2 weeks.

Oil crossed $65 and you may recall the direct correlation I've noted.

Both oil and stocks are getting pricey so be on guard for volatility. I set up a Bull/bear spread on SPY. I'm not sure which way it breaks but I'm betting heavy it won't be at $290 in two weeks.

**homie1975** · 04-23-19, 10:33 AM

GO GO GO (doing a "new high" dance" as i type)

**RoyBacon** · 04-23-19, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

GO GO GO (doing a "new high" dance" as i type)

One foot in, the other out. The internals are there but is there the conviction? Tons of earnings out next two days. Let's see what happens.

**homie1975** · 04-23-19, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

One foot in, the other out. The internals are there but is there the conviction? Tons of earnings out next two days. Let's see what happens.

ROYer great (rhetorical) question as always. I think the Greed Index pushes us up for the next 6 sessions through 4/30 then the "May, Go Away" people come out in full force and we get the downward pressure but it gets offset by bulls and keep us steady around these marks through about 5/15. Just a hunch.

**RoyBacon** · 04-23-19, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

ROYer great (rhetorical) question as always. I think the Greed Index pushes us up for the next 6 sessions through 4/30 then the "May, Go Away" people come out in full force and we get the downward pressure but it gets offset by bulls and keep us steady around these marks through about 5/15. Just a hunch.

Glad you're killing it!

We get at these pinnacles and we really want to see the musical chairs game end with a rash of buying. Dips are erased fairly quickly as folks are using any dip to buy.

Let's see what happens. More likely than not to get something going. Still a lot of money that piled into the 1 year and 2 year. Actually still a lot going into them so the fuel is there.

**homie1975** · 04-25-19, 12:17 AM

The 800 lb gorilla AMZN reports tomorrow after the bell

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 04-25-19, 02:29 AM

Shout-out to whoever mentioned MORT in this thread. Added it to my portfolio. Pretty happy w/ the outlook.

I'm of the mind to consider Risk vs Reward. Any time I feel like I can capture a reasonable return + also reduce my variance, my ears perk up.

**homie1975** · 04-25-19, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Shout-out to whoever mentioned MORT in this thread. Added it to my portfolio. Pretty happy w/ the outlook.

I'm of the mind to consider Risk vs Reward. Any time I feel like I can capture a reasonable return + also reduce my variance, my ears perk up.

I may be wrong but I believe that was our very own KVBer. Tremendous contributor in this thread and in this forum overall. And to boot, he is a super nice guy.