Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[RoyBacon]

ROYer I agree 100% w u in terms of folks who are into individual stocks or only want to hold a SPY or QQQ for 3 mos.

Since I'm into ETFs and am long, I'm sticking with QQQ because I believe so strongly in tech as the current and future and I have a horizon of 6 to 8 years before I need the money I'm investing right now.

If SPY returned a moderate more annually and QQQ moderately less, then SPY would be my choice between the two, but the sucker just trods along steadily but not spectacurlaly

Sure, looking past the next few quarters tech is fine it may even outperform the market over the short, mid and long term.

My pitch is looking for a defensive play or two that can grind higher even if things get really choppy on valuations.

BABA backed down to $181 today. Love to get that guy back at $170ish. BABA trades at just 4.5x next years earnings.

If one wants to gamble ET drops their 3rd qtr tomorrow after the close. They have missed the last 9 qtrs due to a lot of bad luck. Things like the Dakota pipeline which is finally open. The estimate is .40 and I think it could be .45ish maybe higher.

[d2bets]

What's the near term, tomorrow?

Is it me or does it feel like we have been here before?

I talked with Homie a week or two ago and I mentioned the rotation to consumer stocks. It's worth continuing to watch. I think an ole boy would be smart to lay low on techs for a qtr and look for bedrock plays to pick up if we drop back a bit more.

X is about as bedrock as it gets and will get some attention as infrastructure talks get going as well as trade. At $16.41 is an issue that trades at 8x and pays a small dividend.

No, not tomorrow. Let's say 6-9 months. Not saying crash is imminent, just think there's more downside risk than upside potential. Just gotta be a little careful.

[homie1975]

D2 I agree but the balance sheets are still strong and that could slightly outweigh the guidance which would give us the fuel we need to power up more

[d2bets]

D2 I agree but the balance sheets are still strong and that could slightly outweigh the guidance which would give us the fuel we need to power up more

How much upside potential do you see? I'm thinking EOY 3050 would be max effort. That's less than 6% from here. Downside risk is much more than that. I think the former is more likely, but risk/reward calls for some caution.

[keely85]

A correction is coming. Trumpers just can’t admit that bc it’s their only defense at this point for Trumps success

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A correction is coming. Trumpers just can’t admit that bc it’s their only defense at this point for Trumps success

If this is true...what is best Counter? You put higher %(portfolio) into Bonds?

[homie1975]

If this is true...what is best Counter? You put higher %(portfolio) into Bonds?

If the correction and eventual bear market happen, I will be buying incrementally on the way down. I am only going to do this with money that I don't need for the next 5 to 7 years. I would never recommend anyone to Dollar Cost Average like I do unless you are using money you do not need for several years because the waiting might be long but boy will it be worth it :-)

[homie1975]

We're 1 tweet away from a rally to ATH

Trump tried that by saying the Chinese rep.is coming here to .ake a deal on fri but the market isn't buying it. Neither am I. It was a transparent move by the prez to try and boost the market today.

[RoyBacon]

STWD with a bit of an earnings miss due to a mall gone bad. Their mall exposure is low, thankfully. A losing part of the RE puzzle.

[homie1975]

STWD with a bit of an earnings miss due to a mall gone bad. Their mall exposure is low, thankfully. A losing part of the RE puzzle.

ROYer
In order to create more capital so I could have a max position on QQQ, i sold STWD at a gain and NRZ at a loss, last Friday. I held them Since Sept last year. the divvies plus STWD gain wiped out NRZ loss on principle by a longshot. ABSOLUTE COMPLETE LUCK that i sold before the earnings miss.

i have to remind myself of these times i get lucky so when i get unlucky, it stings less. i was thinking about QQQ, not STWD earnings.

we all need a little luck in life.

[RoyBacon]

ROYer
In order to create more capital so I could have a max position on QQQ, i sold STWD at a gain and NRZ at a loss, last Friday. I held them Since Sept last year. the divvies plus STWD gain wiped out NRZ loss on principle by a longshot. ABSOLUTE COMPLETE LUCK that i sold before the earnings miss.

i have to remind myself of these times i get lucky so when i get unlucky, it stings less. i was thinking about QQQ, not STWD earnings.

we all need a little luck in life.

Well done. STWD is down .43 on the day. I've stayed with NRZ. They issued 40 million shares and the stock slumped. Funny I never liked those guys but the 12% dividend keeps them in the starting lineup.

I've been shifting to short term rate plays like ELF, selling funds that hold long maturities. While everyone is talking about the Fed cutting rates I think it's a mirage. By the time fireworks fly or Labor Day I think we will be seeing rates creep up.

[homie1975]

Yea when u told me about STWD and NRZ I was attracted to STWD as a business but NRZ mainly for that 12% div. Thanks to u I made an easy 10.5% combined div the last 2 qtrs as well as positive principle on STWD that trumped the negative on NRZ. I held 500 shares of each. It was a nice, comfortable play and I appreciate it. Thank u !!!

[RoyBacon]

Good to hear Homie!

Well ET did not have a blowout number. Fuggers. Missed by .03 but under the hood looks good and the stock is UP a bit AH. We will see a dividend raise probably by next qtr. SUN, a sub of ET, beat their number. Stock pays an 11% div.

[d2bets]

What a week. Testing 2,800 now seems like a near certainty.

[homie1975]

We are losing leverage against China now as The Donald knows the carnage will be even more if the Tariffs kick in at Midnight. Never mind, it is all systems go. Short term pain for Long term gain.

Those of you sitting on a hoard of cash, get ready to buy, buy, buy !!!

[RoyBacon]

We are losing leverage against China now as The Donald knows the carnage will be even more if the Tariffs kick in at Midnight. Never mind, it is all systems go. Short term pain for Long term gain.

Those of you sitting on a hoard of cash, get ready to buy, buy, buy !!!

I picked up BABA today at a tad under $175. They will get a deal done by the end of the year. Have to tune out the noise.

[homie1975]

I picked up BABA today at a tad under $175. They will get a deal done by the end of the year. Have to tune out the noise.

ROYer the Chinese are sharp as tacks. I think they drag it out thru 2020 and use the election as leverage against Trump. As the market falls they think he'll lose voter support and cave more on his demands.

Let's see.

[RoyBacon]

ROYer the Chinese are sharp as tacks. I think they drag it out thru 2020 and use the election as leverage against Trump. As the market falls they think he'll lose voter support and cave more on his demands.

Let's see.

China doesn't want that. They are competing with Mexico and the world for new investment dollars. It's imperative that China reassures their global investors they are a safe place to invest. There is no chance ABC company goes to china and invests a gazzilion dollars and ships the finished goods to the US with a 20%-40% tariff or higher. ABC goes to Mexico.

Could see an announcement as soon as a few weeks. But worse case, end of the year or steaks on me.

[homie1975]

China doesn't want that. They are competing with Mexico and the world for new investment dollars. It's imperative that China reassures their global investors they are a safe place to invest. There is no chance ABC company goes to china and invests a gazzilion dollars and ships the finished goods to the US with a 20%-40% tariff or higher. ABC goes to Mexico.

Could see an announcement as soon as a few weeks. But worse case, end of the year or steaks on me.

ROYer it makes perfect sense but the Chinese are great poker players then because they are reneging here in the final hour, trying to renegotiate, they are effing with the wrong prez and the wrong country.

[thechaoz]

ROYer the Chinese are sharp as tacks. I think they drag it out thru 2020 and use the election as leverage against Trump. As the market falls they think he'll lose voter support and cave more on his demands.

Let's see.

Trumpers care nothing about anything but him not being "a Dem"

He's committed treason and they are like "why does everyone hate Russia?"

Jesus H Christ


Man shit has changed so fast these days.

I remember when the GOP were incredibly pro American and very anti Communist.

We'll remember McConnell and Graham.

We'll remember.

[RoyBacon]

Trumpers care nothing about anything but him not being "a Dem"

He's committed treason and they are like "why does everyone hate Russia?"

Jesus H Christ


Man shit has changed so fast these days.

I remember when the GOP were incredibly pro American and very anti Communist.

We'll remember McConnell and Graham.

We'll remember.

There are 50+ active threads for TDS tards to cry about losing to Trump in the political forum.

This thread is reserved for investments.

Interesting set up.

Dow futures down 92. BUT...

A lot of green; Asia UP, Euro UP, Oil UP

I could see a quick rally after a lower open. May fade but Asia is shaking off tariff wars.

[Sanity Check]

I would be interested to know if china's economy is heavily invested in bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price is up 50%'ish. Jumped from $4,000 is above $6,000 now.

If china is heavily invested it could explain how economic slowdown is being mitigated. It could also explain why they're not as concerned as one might expect over a looming trade war with america.

Also of note: china is cutting taxes & utilizing many of the same economic policies Donald Trump has adopted to trigger america's job growth and economic boom. All of Trump's policies the media claims "do not work". China is using all of them.

[RoyBacon]

That's a pretty big turn around..

[homie1975]

Overnight markets in deep red

[guitarjosh]

Overnight markets in deep red

We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries...
2:06 PM - 12 May 2019

....We will then spend (match or better) the money that China may no longer be spending with our Great Patriot Farmers (Agriculture), which is a small percentage of total Tariffs received, and distribute the food to starving people in nations around the world! GREAT! #MAGA

[RoyBacon]

-290 errrr

China hinting the deal should be pushed back to after '20 election.

[HockeyRocks]

-290 errrr

China hinting the deal should be pushed back to after '20 election.

Your a fukking LIAR Chump....China said nothing about that....Your scumbag president is floating that trying to use as a threat...."Oh My China if you wait until after the 2020 election the deal will be worse"....Stop Lying...

[jjgold]

Trump is crushing China

I love it, he knows exactly what he is doing

Market getting crushed weekly now but corrections excellent

[HockeyRocks]

We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries...
2:06 PM - 12 May 2019

....We will then spend (match or better) the money that China may no longer be spending with our Great Patriot Farmers (Agriculture), which is a small percentage of total Tariffs received, and distribute the food to starving people in nations around the world! GREAT! #MAGA

Hey Chump #2...How about some FACTS....you say, "we will be taking in Tens of Billions in Tariffs from China."

The Facts are: because Americans pay for the tariffs, tariffs are a tax bozo..Tens of Billions of dollars will be coming out of hard working Americans pockets....If you think otherwise, your not only delusional.your stupid..

[RoyBacon]

Hey Chump #2...How about some FACTS....you say, "we will be taking in Tens of Billions in Tariffs from China."

The Facts are: because Americans pay for the tariffs, tariffs are a tax bozo..Tens of Billions of dollars will be coming out of hard working Americans pockets....If you think otherwise, your not only delusional.your stupid..

Hey Popeye, there are plenty of tard threads to cry in about The Gash losing to the Man of the People. Please limit your TDS to those threads. Thank you and God Bless.

[jt315]

Hey Chump #2...How about some FACTS....you say, "we will be taking in Tens of Billions in Tariffs from China."

The Facts are: because Americans pay for the tariffs, tariffs are a tax bozo..Tens of Billions of dollars will be coming out of hard working Americans pockets....If you think otherwise, your not only delusional.your stupid..

Hey Box of Rocks . That’s a Trump tweet not a Josh statement . Go back to sleep old man .

[d2bets]

-290 errrr

China hinting the deal should be pushed back to after '20 election.

Yeah well if Trump goes ballistic then we crash and he loses and China is right. Trump is not a good poker player. Time to capitulate and say he didn't.

[Shev2]

Premarkets were red all night pretty much. Doubled their losses after China announced retaliatory tariffs. VIX futures spiked, which is good news for my position in UVXY. I'll probably sell my entire volatility play today. Will probably buy a little TCS as an earnings play, frankly I see a lot of upside there. Might also scoop some 3 mo or so calls on XLP depending on the price and how the day trades. Even if China wants to push a deal past 2020, consumer staples shouldn't be taking the huge hits but rather tech will bear most of the burden. Depending on your investing time horizon and risk tolerance, today might be a good day to buy a little SMH. Keep an eye on it over the next month and double down if the price drops significantly more.

[HockeyRocks]

Hey Box of Rocks . That’s a Trump tweet not a Josh statement . Go back to sleep old man .

Chump #2, posting a LYING tweet from this president says you have very little between your ears other than jello...

[jt315]

Chump #2, posting a LYING tweet from this president says you have very little between your ears other than jello...

And not knowing the difference between a Trump tweet and a poster’s statement does make you as dumb as a Box of Rocks .