Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[pavyracer]

What about when sleazebag Obama paid Iran a billion dollars and we still didnt get our hostages??!!! What a fuggin deal eh??

Dude Obama is not President anymore. It's Trump's job to get the hostages now.

[homie1975]

freefall = soon a free for all.

[homie1975]

dead cat today

[Sanity Check]

Yesterday's 700+ point dive could have been sponsored by globalist market manipulation.

Can't say I pay enough attention to equities to know for certain but I think it was politically motivated to an extent.

The timing of Jeff Bezos dumping amzn holdings could also be suspect.

[KVB]

dead cat today

Yikes, but I agree, there is manipulation here.

It's been happening since the Fed tried to influence last year's elections.

I've done ok, save one position...LNG

It got slammed before getting slammed, lost quite a bit on paper there.

[homie1975]

Yesterday's 700+ point dive could have been sponsored by globalist market manipulation.

Can't say I pay enough attention to equities to know for certain but I think it was politically motivated to an extent.

The timing of Jeff Bezos dumping amzn holdings could also be suspect.

Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos sold over 530,000 Amazon shares in the first two days of August for $990 million. After taxes, he will net an estimated $750 million in cash from the sales.
The sales on August 1 and 2 followed $1.4 billion (after-tax) worth of Amazon stock he sold in the final three days of July.
As the richest man on earth, Bezos is now worth an estimated $110.1 billion, using Monday’s closing share price for Amazon.
A spokesman for Amazon has not commented on the purpose for Bezos’ last stock sales. The leading theory is that it is to fund Blue Origin, a space exploration company that Bezos founded in September 2000. Bezos told journalists at a space exploration conference in 2017 that he was funding Blue Origin by selling some of his Amazon shares.

According to documents filed on Monday afternoon with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the world’s richest man sold over 530,000 shares of Amazon when the stock price was around $1,900 a share. On Monday, the stock closed at $1,765 a share.

[thomorino]

Market sell-offs are almost always bigger than they should be since the machines take over when key technical points are broken on the major indexes, the US economy remains strong thanks in large part to Trump's leadership, I don't see the market going much lower from here.

[d2bets]

Yesterday's 700+ point dive could have been sponsored by globalist Trump's market manipulation.

Can't say I pay enough attention to equities to know for certain but I think it was politically motivated to an extent.

The timing of Jeff Bezos dumping amzn holdings could also be suspect.

Fixed it. Trump is making his rich buddies wealthier than they ever could have imagined.

[homie1975]

Market sell-offs are almost always bigger than they should be since the machines take over when key technical points are broken on the major indexes, the US economy remains strong thanks in large part to Trump's leadership, I don't see the market going much lower from here.

I see trade war escalation and another 7%+ drop between now and mid sept

[guitarjosh]

I see trade war escalation and another 7%+ drop between now and mid sept

TLT is your friend.

[HockeyRocks]

Market down over 400 points based on trade fears. If Trump thinks that more interest rate cuts will save his ass, he's delusional.

With the election so close, what will Trump do???

[homie1975]

Market sell-offs are almost always bigger than they should be since the machines take over when key technical points are broken on the major indexes, the US economy remains strong thanks in large part to Trump's leadership, I don't see the market going much lower from here.

Oops. We are

[HockeyRocks]

Market sell-offs are almost always bigger than they should be since the machines take over when key technical points are broken on the major indexes, the US economy remains strong thanks in large part to Trump's leadership, I don't see the market going much lower from here.

Trumps non-leadership is the sole reason for today's current drop in the market.....The problem, Trump is NOT a leader, never has been and never will be..

[homie1975]

here we go..........

[topgame85]

PENN National is a phenomenal opportunity. Have been buying all the way down. Biggest position I've ever held at this point.

[homie1975]

PENN National is a phenomenal opportunity. Have been buying all the way down. Biggest position I've ever held at this point.

so many variations of that company. are you talking symbol PENN ?

[topgame85]

Correct.

[INVEGA MAN]

Omg. Drop of 800 more points. A recession is coming!! This is obama's fault

[d2bets]

Omg. Drop of 800 more points. A recession is coming!! This is obama's fault

One thing we know is it wont be Trump's fault.

[rkelly110]

One thing we know is it wont be Trump's fault.

Sad but true. Here comes the buy gold commercials on Fox......

[d2bets]

Sad but true. Here comes the buy gold commercials on Fox......

Trump is the sole reason when the market reason and the only one not to blame when it falls, dontcha know?

[TheMoneyShot]

Love the news stories... lol they always have the brightest insight why the market dropped 800 in one day...

"Dow plummets 800 points on worsening global recession fears."

You can say that almost any given day. I can't stand the bullsh#$ news

[d2bets]

Love the news stories... lol they always have the brightest insight why the market dropped 800 in one day...

"Dow plummets 800 points on worsening global recession fears."

You can say that almost any given day. I can't stand the bullsh#$ news

OK, so the headline should read "Dow plummets 800 points ________________________." Fill in the blank.

[TheMoneyShot]

OK, so the headline should read "Dow plummets 800 points ________________________." Fill in the blank.

That's my entire point. No sh#$ why it fell. You could take a sh#$ on a toilet and figure it out. So, why don't these fukkers help people out if their so brilliant with their writing skills.... and tell people 48 hours beforehand? Total fukking nonsense.

[TheMoneyShot]

And what will the headline be tomorrow if it increases by 800 points??? It was only a false alarm? Sorry folks.

Total BS. No one really knows anything. All journalists are phony.

[grease lightnin]

Money shotter, the 2yr and 10yr yields inverted this morning and the yield on the 30yr treasury hit all time lows.

Generally the inversion would indicate the fixed income mkts are pricing in a path of declining US interest rates via the Fed, IE a US recession is on tap and we expect the Fed to accommodate.

But as Alan Greenspan said today, there is international arbitrage going on in the bond market, IE there is a lot of global demand for US bonds due to their safety and positive yields, where other developed fixed income mkts are more risky with less yield.

Therefore, it is a global economic issue regardless of whether it is a prediction on future domestic monetary policy or it is due to developed intl fixed income investors seeking safety and yield.

Is that better?

[d2bets]

That's my entire point. No sh#$ why it fell. You could take a sh#$ on a toilet and figure it out. So, why don't these fukkers help people out if their so brilliant with their writing skills.... and tell people 48 hours beforehand? Total fukking nonsense.

Huh? You didn't answer my question. What should the headline have said?

So you're telling me the news headline on Monday should have been "The Dow is going to fall 800 points on Wednesday, be prepared"?

[d2bets]

Money shotter, the 2yr and 10yr yields inverted this morning and the yield on the 30yr treasury hit all time lows.

Generally the inversion would indicate the fixed income mkts are pricing in a path of declining US interest rates via the Fed, IE a US recession is on tap and we expect the Fed to accommodate.

But as Alan Greenspan said today, there is international arbitrage going on in the bond market, IE there is a lot of global demand for US bonds due to their safety and positive yields, where other developed fixed income mkts are more risky with less yield.

Therefore, it is a global economic issue regardless of whether it is a prediction on future domestic monetary policy or it is due to developed intl fixed income investors seeking safety and yield.

Is that better?

So basically... the yield curve inversion might be a predictor of an imminent recession, or it might not. Have I got that right?

[MinnesotaFats]

Money shotter, the 2yr and 10yr yields inverted this morning and the yield on the 30yr treasury hit all time lows.

Generally the inversion would indicate the fixed income mkts are pricing in a path of declining US interest rates via the Fed, IE a US recession is on tap and we expect the Fed to accommodate.

But as Alan Greenspan said today, there is international arbitrage going on in the bond market, IE there is a lot of global demand for US bonds due to their safety and positive yields, where other developed fixed income mkts are more risky with less yield.

Therefore, it is a global economic issue regardless of whether it is a prediction on future domestic monetary policy or it is due to developed intl fixed income investors seeking safety and yield.

Is that better?

This is exactly right

The US economy is not an export economy

Whereas Germany and China are in recession they get killed because they must export stuff...

...US economy still consumer driven by retail sales and yes, Fed will unwind the 8 or 9 rate hikes it has implemented over the past 2 years to put the dollar back in line with international currency

There is no US recession coming based on these indicators....this is the exception to the past rule

[grease lightnin]

So basically... the yield curve inversion might be a predictor of an imminent recession, or it might not. Have I got that right?

Ya, you got it.

[d2bets]

Ya, you got it.

I guess if it was a 100% guaranteed predictor, the market would have fallen 15% today instead of 3%.

Futures now calling for a little recovery tomorrow, we'll see.

[guitarjosh]

I guess if it was a 100% guaranteed predictor, the market would have fallen 15% today instead of 3%.

Futures now calling for a little recovery tomorrow, we'll see.

It's an omen, not a guarantee. 2-10 inverted in 1995 & 1998 and the Fed cuts rates, and we didn't go into a recession until 2001 when the Fed hiked rates several times after another inversion. 1-10 inverted in 1965 (2 year didn't exist back then), the Fed cut rates and we didn't go into a recession until 1969.

You guys on the left better be careful what you wish for. You might get a democrat sweep in 2020, implement a lot of changes, and see the recession come in mid 2022 and get blamed for it.

EDIT: The 2-10 didn't invert in 1995, but 3 month - 5 year were inverted.

[d2bets]

It's an omen, not a guarantee. 2-10 inverted in 1995 & 1998 and the Fed cuts rates, and we didn't go into a recession until 2001 when the Fed hiked rates several times after another inversion. 1-10 inverted in 1965 (2 year didn't exist back then), the Fed cut rates and we didn't go into a recession until 1969.

You guys on the left better be careful what you wish for. You might get a democrat sweep in 2020, implement a lot of changes, and see the recession come in mid 2022 and get blamed for it.

EDIT: The 2-10 didn't invert in 1995, but 3 month - 5 year were inverted.

Yeah, I mean if we are looking out right now to late 2024, what are the chances we won't see a recession sometime between now and then. I'd say it's probably 85% yes. Blaming whoever happens to be sitting on the hot seat is kinda stupid, but it happens. I suppose that's why we rarely see one party in control for more than a decade or so at a time.

[topgame85]

Recession will come but is nowhere near imminent. Everyone still spooked from last time. Smart investors realize how close we came to zero. Bailouts in general are bad policy but literally saved the world economy and millions of lives. No guarantee they can or will happen next time shit hits the fan. Certain stocks will be very strong over the next few years. Others will suffer in uncertainty. That is nothing new. Like sports, pick winners.

[kidcudi92]

When is the CNBC markets in turmoil special we need it