Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[KVB]

We're getting oversold. The junk bond market hit an all time high last week, something you don't see before a market crash.

I agree, not so much a crash, but selling might not be done this week.

We had a crazy run through the last few months.

[homie1975]

KVB i think the growth outlook for chips was downgraded the past week and that's what is hitting the sector so hard.

i am holding the ETF SOXL which around 119 right now is hovering at 52W lows. it's holdings include NVDA, MU, INTC, AVGO and other big hitters..

[KVB]

Yeah, they've been identifying a cycle change for many months now without a drop.

September lead-times contracted for the first time after expanding for two years but there is still growth, even if analysts are cutting estimates.

I'm not an expert on the sector, but chips and tech are always undergoing changes and growth, right now it's about AI and servers, in everything from our cars to our toilets...lol.

[jjgold]

its why you beta weight your greeks and cannot get hurt

Let me teach

[KVB]

its why you beta weight your greeks and cannot get hurt

Let me teach

I'm doing ok, not getting slammed nearly as much as the indices. Seeing a drop in the natural gas positions. The trading fund has one green stock...GME.

It's actually kind of funny.

[Otters27]

Dow down 831

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Dow down 831

Taking a beating today. Down -3.5%.

[RoyBacon]

I'm spotting.

[BigJay]

Could the fact the crop reports are coming out soon be leading to today’s big drops?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=obAoPP1bdIM

[KVB]

Could the fact the crop reports are coming out soon be leading to today’s big drops?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=obAoPP1bdIM

[homie1975]

SQ is now at 72. about 28% down from the high just 3 weeks ago. when is the time to buy again?

[RoyBacon]

SQ is now at 72. about 28% down from the high just 3 weeks ago. when is the time to buy again?

Getting hammered today. Not the lone ranger.

Kind of hard to buy anything.

[Otters27]

Dow tried to go green in the morning. But now down 300

[homie1975]

Getting hammered today. Not the lone ranger.

Kind of hard to buy anything.

yes. market treating her like the CEO leaving not the CFO. i need to find entry point on this one. you are right though, today is not the day

[homie1975]

Dow tried to go green in the morning. But now down 300

It's all over the place. Mini whip saw today

[d2bets]

It's all over the place. Mini whip saw today

Looks like late January all over again. May see a recovery before another drop. But at this point all the gains in the last 5 months (and the year) are wiped out. Indices now roughly flat for the year to date.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is bad. Dammit, Taleb was right. Stk market is risky as shit, down 5% in two days.

[homie1975]

This is bad. Dammit, Taleb was right. Stk market is risky as shit, down 5% in two days.

But look how much it was up the last 8-9 mos before the last major correction in late Jan / early Feb ? if one is going to focus on the huge drop the past week, one must also consider the huge gains before that...........

[d2bets]

But look how much it was up the last 8-9 mos before the last major correction in late Jan / early Feb ? if one is going to focus on the huge drop the past week, one must also consider the huge gains before that...........

Those gains are basically wiped out. S&P 500 now basically at breakeven for the year to date. Lost the measly 6% gains it had for the year.

[pavyracer]

9 months of gains wiped in 2 days. And don't be surprised if tomorrow sees another 5% drop.

[RoyBacon]

Don't worry tards, the year is not over.

[RoyBacon]

Dow futures UP 275

[homie1975]

9 months of gains wiped in 2 days. And don't be surprised if tomorrow sees another 5% drop.

that would be extremely surprising and would amount to a full on crash when aggregated to the last week's damage. then again, not much really surprises me much these days so i used my words cautiously........

[homie1975]

Dow futures UP 275

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't worry tards, the year is not over.

Yeah, but it's not good. Doesn't feel good to lose 5% (Net worth) in 48 hours.

[jjgold]

Earning should be good but I think the rest of the year we’re going to see choppy markets

[RoyBacon]

Yeah, but it's not good. Doesn't feel good to lose 5% (Net worth) in 48 hours.

True that.

But we have several of these on the way up the +50% ladder.

[homie1975]

True that.

But we have several of these on the way up the +50% ladder.

ROY does experience say to try and time the dios or better to just let it ride and look at the long game. My goals are 4 years
Out so I think it's better for me to stand pat over the next year or so heading into late 2019. Your thoughts?

[Lineman]

I have lived it. You don't have to. I just put my stops now let the market do its thing.

[Lineman]

Where do you guys think we are now? Yes it has been a very long run but are we at thrill yet? Certainly we haven't seen euphoria...
Who knows....

[homie1975]

Lineman- maybe I'm wrong but I believe we hit euphoria in late Jan of this year when the market was peaking in what was the most vertical line we have seen in quite some time that begin Dec end and began the large correction in Jan 22 I believe

[Lineman]

Homie, I don't think that can be considered euphoria. After euphoria we are supposed to feel depressed remember? I don't remember feeling depressed this year.
Last euphoria for me was in 2000. I didn't think we could see anything like that again in our lifetime but I could be proven wrong looks like. I guess not every top comes with euphoria nor every bottom with depression.
I guess I was comparing this run like the one in the 90s.

[RoyBacon]

ROY does experience say to try and time the dios or better to just let it ride and look at the long game. My goals are 4 years
Out so I think it's better for me to stand pat over the next year or so heading into late 2019. Your thoughts?

You should have a core that you will never sell, ever. If you need cash in 4 years then don't include that amount in your core.

So $100k would look like this;
$40k core (btw, always add to this even if you are a 100 years old)

$60k for 4 years.(the cash you need)

Your non core cash is what you decide to trade with.

If it was me I would go slightly conservative on what I'll need in 4 years.
NRZ and STWD come to mind. Set a stop 20% under their 52 week low. I'd buy a couple of bonds. You can get 4.35% on Aloca bonds maturing in Aug 2020 for example. HCA bonds for march 2022 pay 4.25%

I would never be in this mrkt with money I need in 4 years except very conservative plays and about half in bonds.

[guitarjosh]

Abmd

alsn


amed

bsx

ci


cnc

csx

foxf

ftnt

hiiq

hmsy

lulu

mpx

mtch

orly

team

wcg

wwe

s&p500 for the week: -4.11%

above picks for the week: -5.7%

[homie1975]

I meant to give Josh 2 pts but nominate Roys post