Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[RoyBacon]

Yesterday I clicked on my F position and looked at the specific, not broad news.

News said President Trump mocked Ford at a rally and then the next headline said the White House said the President didn't "mock" Ford, it just stated facts.

I'm like "what the hell?"

Turns out they were talking about Christine Blasey Ford, not the car company.

[homie1975]

Guitar Josh talks a lot about the correlation between the 10 year treasury yield going higher and resulting in the inverted curve which in turns takes us into the Bear and at the very least a mild recession.

Josh where are you today, we need to hear your thoughts

[RoyBacon]

US 10-YR	3.185	+0.024
US 30-YR	3.344	+0.025
US 5-YR	3.043	+0.019
US 2-YR	2.872	+0.012

You really have to be careful broad brushing inverted curves and 0% rates. Yes they can signal bear markets but it's the tail of the dog, not the dog.

The "overheating" aspect is what Josh and others will be pointing to. But if you read the Fed they believe there will be a slowdown in '20-'21. I saw the Fed's GDP est for '20 at 1.9% which is Obama like....when we had 0% interest rates.

I said this AM I think the market has a great excuse to sell off and mark time.

When the 10 yr gets to 3.2% like it is now it's dam tempting to shift to bonds and get triple AAA guaranteed 3.2%.

[guitarjosh]

Guitar Josh talks a lot about the correlation between the 10 year treasury yield going higher and resulting in the inverted curve which in turns takes us into the Bear and at the very least a mild recession.

Josh where are you today, we need to hear your thoughts

We're not inverted, yields are still relatively low. The market will pull back from time to time, but we're still heading up.

[homie1975]

Josher it looks like more pain before the (re)gains. if kavanaugh confirmed tomorrow, probably more pain on monday. that is not a political opinion because i do not care either way, but somehow the sentiment is that a supreme court judge getting confirmed will affect the market adversely. i don't quite understand that so i go loosely paraphrase KVB's thought in recent mos - "the market needs any excuse to drop right now"

[kidcudi92]

Been speaking with a few law firms about the $420 tweet.

Doesn't matter if you had puts or calls, you are included.

Might only get a few bucks out of it, but don't see a reason NOT to get involved

$TSLA 230s next week IMO

Musk just cannot STFU on twitter...I love it

Good luck out there men

Have a good safe weekend!

[homie1975]

KidCudi enjoying the musk meltdown and TSLA slide LOL

[guitarjosh]

This week's stocks:

ABMD

ALGN

AMED

BEAT

BSX

CRM

EW

FIVE

FOXF

FTNT

HIIQ

HMSY

ILMN

IRMD

LGND

LULU

MBUU

MTCH

ORLY

TEAM

TTD

ULTA

VEEV

WCG

WWE

S&P500 for the week: -.97%

The above picks for the week: -7.36%

This is my worst week by far since posting here

[kidcudi92]

KidCudi enjoying the musk meltdown and TSLA slide LOL

You don’t even know my friend...

I love to party and this only fuels it!!!!

[RoyBacon]

You don’t even know my friend...

I love to party and this only fuels it!!!!

I closed out 1/3 of my short calls when this fugger broke $300. Damm it.

Sold some TSLA Nov 120 Puts today for $1.55. I'm already short Nov 410 calls.

I think she stabilizes above $250 and sets a range from $270 to $290. Even if she breaks say $230ish I just don't see a price under $200 this year. Company could be break even by March..probably not, but stock price will stay expensive imo.

[brooks85]

lol complete horse shit

fact of the matter is when we last talked about nvidia and who got in first d2bets went silent on me because he knew his lies wouldn't add up.

D2bets started touting nivida the same day all the talking heads on TV like cramer did. Fact. I was posting the day it happened.

There is a reason idiots like d2bets follow talking heads and intelligent people like me were already in nividia. Same reason d2bets has no idea what AMD is and only talks about nvidia.

lol keep running d2 but hey maybe you can post about nvidia again


another easy winner $ntdoy/ntdof. 2018 sucked just like I said it would and 2018 almost over. 2019 and on is nothing but money. Stock doubled last time I posted to buy it.

[guitarjosh]

Abmd

alsn


amed

bsx

ci


cnc

csx

foxf

ftnt

hiiq

hmsy

lulu

mpx

mtch

orly

team

wcg

wwe

[homie1975]

more pain today

[kidcudi92]

more pain today

Most weed stocks fine


TSLA...well lmao I told ya guys. More coming



Bout to write Efraud a personal thank you for letting me grab a large nest egg at 26



Yawn we are drinking Belaire tonight

[jjgold]

A much needed correction everywhere good for the market

[kidcudi92]

I'll check in lil after 130 game starts


Gonna go spray the AK at some pumpkins on my buddy's land

[RoyBacon]

Most weed stocks fine


TSLA...well lmao I told ya guys. More coming



Bout to write Efraud a personal thank you for letting me grab a large nest egg at 26



Yawn we are drinking Belaire tonight

Folks comparing TSLA to Lehman in an article out today.

I just shorted some Nov 120 puts for $2. Shorted some Nov $380 calls too.

I don't think this dog is going anywhere. The options are way over priced.

[kidcudi92]

Folks comparing TSLA to Lehman in an article out today.

I just shorted some Nov 120 puts for $2. Shorted some Nov $380 calls too.

I don't think this dog is going anywhere. The options are way over priced.

230s

[RoyBacon]

230s

Yea... May even find a home in the $210 to $240 range. But I can't see an outright collapse. Just not in the cards. Too many true believers out there.

[kidcudi92]

Yea... May even find a home in the $210 to $240 range. But I can't see an outright collapse. Just not in the cards. Too many true believers out there.

The odd thing is I actually feel bad for the believers. It’s a zero sum game. They will hold the bag.

Hope is not an investment strategy and sadly, most retail traders use it

[KVB]

Top 20 Decliners with last trade over 5 and 5 day avg volume over 250,000...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
ISRG	526.81	-21.90	-3.99	INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
AMZN	1,870.59	-19.06	-1.01	AMAZON.COM INC
ABMD	398.66	-17.05	-4.10	ABIOMED INC
ULTI	291.81	-12.30	-4.04	ULTIMATE SOFTWARE GROUP I
TSLA	250.70	-11.25	-4.29	TESLA INC
ALGN	343.32	-9.79	-2.77	ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC
MSG	290.88	-9.74	-3.24	MADISON SQUARE GARDEN CO
BLUE	133.78	-9.53	-6.65	BLUEBIRD BIO INC
GOOGL	1,158.41	-9.42	-0.81	ALPHABET INC
IRBT	97.28	-8.78	-8.28	IROBOT CORP
CSGP	386.60	-8.32	-2.11	COSTAR GROUP INC
ADBE	255.02	-8.20	-3.12	ADOBE SYSTEMS INC
WIX	101.14	-8.13	-7.44	WIX.COM LTD
SQ	86.20	-7.91	-8.40	SQUARE INC
WAT	183.14	-7.57	-3.97	WATERS CORP
ANET	243.73	-7.54	-3.00	ARISTA NETWORKS INC
TLRY	139.38	-7.54	-5.13	TILRAY INC
WDAY	132.55	-7.42	-5.30	WORKDAY INC
LGND	247.32	-6.92	-2.72	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC
GOOG	1,150.76	-6.58	-0.57	ALPHABET INC

[RoyBacon]

Nice day for STWD. This guy has been holding it's own while every other dividend play is getting blasted.

[KVB]

MORT, USRT and STWD holding.

I've said that I think STWD is positioned better for a rate move, I think it's solid.

Money came in a bit to all of them, curious to see if it comes in again tomorrow.

[homie1975]

KVB and ROY - please give me your thoughts on Semiconductors for the balance of the year. will they rebound? there are some real players in the chip game. i love NVDA and Jensen Huang

[RoyBacon]

KVB and ROY - please give me your thoughts on Semiconductors for the balance of the year. will they rebound? there are some real players in the chip game. i love NVDA and Jensen Huang

Semi's are just not on my radar screen.... doesn't mean they should or shouldn't.

On STWD, I think the price will be correlated to how their acquisition of GE's oilfield financing biz performs. I'm bullish it will be fine. They are smart fuggers there.

[Totolover1409]

I've got couple hundred shares of MU and I'm taking a beating. Any input on Micron?

[homie1975]

I've got couple hundred shares of MU and I'm taking a beating. Any input on Micron?

Toto, I tell you "I miss the rains down in Africa" with my girl "Roseanna". two of the greatest songs ever recorded !!

Micron will probably need to get carried by some good earnings news from NVDA or another big chip maker.........

[RoyBacon]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/bond-market-signaling-sluggish-or-uncertain-growth-ahead-feds-kaplan-says.html

A decent discussion about the near inverted rates with a Fed president.

I very much agree but the future is not pre set. I think the most likely scenario is the 30 yr rate rises while the 10 yr stays about where it is. That scenario plays out IF growth remains moderately strong while inflation stays under control.

US 10-YR	3.218	-0.009
US 30-YR	3.382	-0.015

The market will likely stay nervous as long as this spread is 170 basis points.

[homie1975]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/bond...plan-says.html

A decent discussion about the near inverted rates with a Fed president.

I very much agree but the future is not pre set. I think the most likely scenario is the 30 yr rate rises while the 10 yr stays about where it is. That scenario plays out IF growth remains moderately strong while inflation stays under control.

US 10-YR	3.218	-0.009
US 30-YR	3.382	-0.015

The market will likely stay nervous as long as this spread is 170 basis points.

let's see if the Fed wants to help or hurt the market.

[RoyBacon]

let's see if the Fed wants to help or hurt the market.

In years past the Fed never raised rates in an election year.

The growth we are seeing has everyone baffled. It wasn't 7 months ago the Fed was looking for 1.9% in '20. That's now up to 2.5% and that could still be way off.

Since 2020 is a potus election year I could see 2 more bumps in '19(or 1 in Dec & 1 in apr) and none in '20. Keep in mind the Fed thinks they are now at "neutral". Two 1/4 point bumps will dampen stocks a bit but looking at this from 30k feet it will not crash the party.

The much bigger factor short term is trade.

[homie1975]

We're not inverted, yields are still relatively low. The market will pull back from time to time, but we're still heading up.

i hope you're right. i'm bullish by nature but this is not a good feeling right now. we have a lot of headwinds. only strong earnings can really save us right now and thankfully those reports are right around the corner..........

[Otters27]

Stocks crashing hard. Up day tommorow?

[guitarjosh]

i hope you're right. i'm bullish by nature but this is not a good feeling right now. we have a lot of headwinds. only strong earnings can really save us right now and thankfully those reports are right around the corner..........

We're getting oversold. The junk bond market hit an all time high last week, something you don't see before a market crash.

[KVB]

KVB and ROY - please give me your thoughts on Semiconductors for the balance of the year. will they rebound? there are some real players in the chip game. i love NVDA and Jensen Huang

MU---Micron hit way too hard, it was already a discount.

It's a buy at these levels, how can in not be?

This is worth discussion because something has kept it cheap, not just trade BS.

Otherwise I don't know, seems like money will come back and it will hit semiconductors too, we haven't had a correction like this in a while, it was probably needed for the overall market.

Some major profit taking win NVDA, I can't see a reason it doesn't get support and even goes up, there is good news out there for NVDA.

The only negative is that China's Huawei say they will use their own chips to power servers, but NVDA is in AI and INTC dominates the servers market.

Seems to be just profit taking, overall weakness in that sense, not sector issues.

[KVB]

Top 20 Decliners today with last trade over 5 and 5 day avg vol over 250,000...

Symbol	Last Trade	Change	% Change	Description
AMZN	1,776.78	-93.54	-5.00	AMAZON.COM INC
BKNG	1,791.39	-79.11	-4.23	BOOKING HOLDINGS INC
GOOG	1,098.55	-40.27	-3.54	ALPHABET INC
GOOGL	1,107.28	-37.90	-3.31	ALPHABET INC
BLK	429.68	-30.03	-6.53	BLACKROCK INC
NFLX	330.21	-25.50	-7.17	NETFLIX INC
ALGN	319.53	-21.44	-6.29	ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC
MELI	321.12	-18.94	-5.57	MERCADOLIBRE INC
GWW	316.81	-18.57	-5.54	GRAINGER (W W) INC
LGND	216.90	-18.28	-7.77	LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC
TECL	135.79	-16.26	-10.69	DIREXION DAILY TECH BULL
BA	369.44	-16.00	-4.15	BOEING CO
ILMN	308.02	-15.72	-4.86	ILLUMINA INC
CP	207.21	-15.57	-6.99	CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY
NVDA	250.17	-15.37	-5.79	NVIDIA CORP
ISRG	516.24	-14.97	-2.82	INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
TSE	61.38	-14.77	-19.40	TRINSEO SA
ABMD	380.63	-14.45	-3.66	ABIOMED INC
SOXL	118.32	-14.24	-10.74	DIREXION DAILY SEMI BULL
INTU	206.93	-13.73	-6.22	INTUIT INC