Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

Nasdaq up 2% while "The Dow" basically flat. Dow is totally meaningless. Why anyone still quotes it is a mystery.

[trobin31]

Not sure how the Fed meeting went cause I’m pretty busy working but spy definitely broke out and likely heading to 430-450

[Snowball]

[homie1975]

Nasdaq up 2% while "The Dow" basically flat. Dow is totally meaningless. Why anyone still quotes it is a mystery.

last year the DOW held up decent while SPX and Nazzy took major dumps.

it may only be 30 stocks, but it is the "big number" and keeps better headlines when way up or way down because of that large number 30,000+

[Slurry Pumper]

What am I gonna make off Tesla bro? Throw in 10 grand to win like 6 grand 3 years from now, then pay taxes on it? Not even worth the stress.

Just wanted to point out that I touted the Call options in all of the index funds yesterday, and I think they all made big bank. EX. Spy $400 strike expire 2/1 for $2.50 during the morning and not even the low from yesterday, Sold about an hour before the close at $12.50, and that wasn't the high either. About 5X in a 6 hour span. This is not a typical set up but these do occur about 5-10 times a year. Sit around and watch the markets, things start to give you signals.
Of course that trade was a nice one, but sadly I read the signals incorrect and it looks like the markets will push higher. I would be lying if I told you I'm not about ready to sell all PUTS. May is a long way away, and I know the rate of diminished value will eat away so I did sell before the close 1/2 of that position. The close was indeed above the $410 spot I have marked for bullish behavior. Time to be the referee and call it a breakout run here but still in a down trending market. Unless today or Friday the rug gets pulled from the bulls, $420 SPY is the next target I see with a few other spots along the way.

[Chiefs83]

I can’t find anything to invest in right now. Everything is too high. No VALUE

[homie1975]

I can’t find anything to invest in right now. Everything is too high. No VALUE

this is why i believe in dollar cost averaging while markets dip and drop. extremely difficult to time unless you are a guy like Milwaukee Mike.

[d2bets]

last year the DOW held up decent while SPX and Nazzy took major dumps.

it may only be 30 stocks, but it is the "big number" and keeps better headlines when way up or way down because of that large number 30,000+

Opposite now. Today now Dow down 0.5% while the Nazzy is up 2.4%. S&P up 1%. Quite a divergence. If you just looked at the Dow, you'd think the market was down today. Certainly isn't.

[d2bets]

I can’t find anything to invest in right now. Everything is too high. No VALUE

I know. That's how I'm feeling right now. I hate buying after it's already shot up.

[d2bets]

Anyone else hold UPST? Why the 25% jump today. Don't even see any news. (not complaining at all)

[freeVICK]

This won’t end well

[d2bets]

This won’t end well

When is the "end"?

[freeVICK]

When is the "end"?

6-8 months

[freeVICK]

Sell off everything in your tax deferred accounts, move into a 4% high yield savings account. Be ready to buy the crash

[d2bets]

Sell off everything in your tax deferred accounts, move into a 4% high yield savings account. Be ready to buy the crash

I've thought that before, not so sure about that now. I think the S&P will reach a new high before year's end.

[trobin31]

We’ve hit a lot of key bullish indicators on Bitcoin, getting long on your favorite hodling stock and adding on pullbacks, whether its mstr hive hut sos, mstr >40% short interest lol

null and void if we fall back under 18.8k BTC

I think this continues intro springtime so while it may look like you’ve missed out there’s probably a case to reach 33k by spring, which means lots of ways to leverage this through miners

[homie1975]

Opposite now. Today now Dow down 0.5% while the Nazzy is up 2.4%. S&P up 1%. Quite a divergence. If you just looked at the Dow, you'd think the market was down today. Certainly isn't.

Nazzy still down ~25% from the all time high of 16,057 in nov 2021.

Last year the dow got hit the least. Now the rotation moves from those companies into the Nazzy and SPX

[homie1975]

This won’t end well

When in doubt zoom out.

Yes I believe a sell the rip is coming but I don't see a sustained sell off because most indicators have turned slight bullish vs where they were full bearish.

[homie1975]

Anyone else hold UPST? Why the 25% jump today. Don't even see any news. (not complaining at all)

I own it. Short squeeze going on.

Upstart relies on rates being low and jay powell words yday were good for this sector in terms of forward looking.

I'm still down 50% on upstart overall but holding.

[homie1975]

I know. That's how I'm feeling right now. I hate buying after it's already shot up.

Only Milwaukee mike can time it. Why do you guys try to time it when pros barely can?

Lol

[d2bets]

I own it. Short squeeze going on.

Upstart relies on rates being low and jay powell words yday were good for this sector in terms of forward looking.

I'm still down 50% on upstart overall but holding.

I got lucky. I bought it a few months ago at $17.95.

[d2bets]

Only Milwaukee mike can time it. Why do you guys try to time it when pros barely can?

Lol

What do I buy right now to potentially hold for a long time? Looking to buy like 5-6 stocks of which I'd sell the losers before year-end and hold winners as long as possible. I don't have any losers in my account right now.

[Chiefs83]

Because I care what price I buy my stock for

[d2bets]

Only Milwaukee mike can time it. Why do you guys try to time it when pros barely can?

Lol

I think sports bettors are wired to to want to time the market. Every winning sports bettor is vigilant about betting at the right time at the right price. Only natural to want to do the same with stocks.

[trobin31]

Don’t fight the Fed
dont fight the tape
buy the friggin dip

[homie1975]

Because I care what price I buy my stock for

you will most likely lose many more opportunities trying to time the bottom because when it reverses course you will miss out and end up buying it higher.

suit yourself.

[milwaukee mike]

you will most likely lose many more opportunities trying to time the bottom because when it reverses course you will miss out and end up buying it higher.

suit yourself.

i don't see it as timing the bottom... it's buying something for a fair price

if i see a $400 jacket that i like on sale for $200, and i buy it... i really don't care much if they mark it down to $150 later... i still feel that i got a good price on something i liked

i bought nflx at 230 only to watch it get down to 160... for a while i looked pretty dumb

[homie1975]

i don't see it as timing the bottom... it's buying something for a fair price

if i see a $400 jacket that i like on sale for $200, and i buy it... i really don't care much if they mark it down to $150 later... i still feel that i got a good price on something i liked

i bought nflx at 230 only to watch it get down to 160... for a while i looked pretty dumb

i nibbled NFLX 3x on the way down from 330 down to 165.

my highest buy in that stretch was 330 and the lowest was 170.

i built a nice position and i think we both look pretty good right about now as it is up in the 360's

[homie1975]

this week we have some biggies come up in other sectors:

Tues: Linde, Chipotle
Weds: Yum brands (taco bell, KFC, etc), Disney
Thurs: PayPal

[trobin31]

Spent some time objectively reviewing and we really have to wait and see this week which way the dollar breaks, right now appears range bound between 100-103, if it nukes below 100 this market is gonna go bananas into whatever world ending event is gonna crash it

[Slurry Pumper]

I agree somewhat with the Trobin here. If the dollar gains strength the markets go down. After looking at the markets this weekend, I'm still a bear. We had some reports come out lately that I think were "rigged" to say the least. Do you really think 500,000 jobs were added? I don't I think it is a ploy for the state of the Union. We'll probably get some nice CPI too but I'm still bearish after selling half of my longer term puts going into the weekend. I'll start loading up again this week, and take the pain, this market falls before Mid May, and I think it will fall pretty hard too.

A thing about timing the markets. I don't know how you can't time the markets, I think where you can go wrong is the tolerance for price. Sure I'm not going to hit the absolute bottom or top, although I'm pretty good at that most of the time, but I will hit a winning price a majority of the time. If I cost average down, I have to wait day after day for things to turn my way, and that may or may not happen. All the while I have capital tied up in a loser. My thought is to cut the losers quickly and instead of cost averaging down, take that money you saved on the way down, and reenter at a different level. Don't sit on the stupid bench while that stock goes from 200 to 100 only to buy it again then hope it goes up.

[Chiefs83]

Added to KORU at 9.50

[homie1975]

where is Everyone? bailed the site?

[trobin31]

where is Everyone? bailed the site?

still here homie. Buying dips for now.

[Poker_Beast]

Sup Homie! Been wondering the same thing. Been checking in daily. Slurry must be off playing in the mud.