Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[matt711]

MDGL went from $62 to $300 per share in last month, wish I kept them all last year , but glad I saved half, tough stock market , good luck in all your endeavors

[topgame85]

I'm ready for this all important report tomorrow. My opinion is inflation is, and always was, indeed "Transitory". The "Transition" was simply a much longer runway than the FED foresaw. It was Supply side inflation and nobody knew how long Supply would take to normalize. They wacked demand on the head because they had to do something, but now it may end up overdone. We are just now starting to see the results of tightening because of the 6-9 mo. lag. Compound that to the Supply side normalizing and it is obvious why the market is expecting rate cuts sooner than later. The FED could stick to its guns and go above 5% for a year or so, but that would likely cause major damage. They want nothing more than to take credit for a soft landing at the end of this so don't count on them sticking to their hawkish talk.

[topgame85]

The "excess savings" is 2/3rds in the pockets of the very wealthy. They already had the money to buy whatever they want, and aren't a large enough volume to take all the Supply moving forward. Most lower income are at or below pre-pandemic balances with higher debt. Middle-income people are worse off than a year ago because their home is worth less and they didn't get raises big enough to cover increased expenses from price increases. Supply comes back on line and demand is gone- no more inflation. My thesis, let's see.

[homie1975]

Topper
thanks for posting.
please continue to.

[milwaukee mike]

The "excess savings" is 2/3rds in the pockets of the very wealthy. They already had the money to buy whatever they want, and aren't a large enough volume to take all the Supply moving forward. Most lower income are at or below pre-pandemic balances with higher debt. Middle-income people are worse off than a year ago because their home is worth less and they didn't get raises big enough to cover increased expenses from price increases. Supply comes back on line and demand is gone- no more inflation. My thesis, let's see.

that still wouldn't mean it was transitory imho... eggs aren't going back down to 69 cents/dozen... there isn't a restaurant in the country that will lower menu prices, cars aren't going back to 8% below sticker (and those 2023 sticker prices are higher)

so yes there's a demand problem but look at gold prices, inflation isn't going to reverse course, it CAN'T or the whole house of cards collapses... money supply has to continue to increase (why else would we give ukraine all that money and have $1.7 trillion in federal spending) or $100 trillion in debt looks pretty unpayable

[topgame85]

that still wouldn't mean it was transitory imho... eggs aren't going back down to 69 cents/dozen... there isn't a restaurant in the country that will lower menu prices, cars aren't going back to 8% below sticker (and those 2023 sticker prices are higher)

so yes there's a demand problem but look at gold prices, inflation isn't going to reverse course, it CAN'T or the whole house of cards collapses... money supply has to continue to increase (why else would we give ukraine all that money and have $1.7 trillion in federal spending) or $100 trillion in debt looks pretty unpayable

Good points. That is the conundrum. How can they keep prices at these elevated levels if it cracks and the masses can't continue to pay them? Do they simply not sell anything? That wouldn't work. These days most Americans will max cards, take out home equity, beg borrow and steal to live above their means. When the last drop drips, and it will come to that for many people at these prices, what happens next? I can't say exactly, but nothing good. I have to imagine some companies do drop prices. Not to the levels you mentioned, those days are gone, but maybe somewhere below where they are now. I can't see wage increases sustaining the current levels.

[homie1975]

that still wouldn't mean it was transitory imho... eggs aren't going back down to 69 cents/dozen... there isn't a restaurant in the country that will lower menu prices, cars aren't going back to 8% below sticker (and those 2023 sticker prices are higher)

so yes there's a demand problem but look at gold prices, inflation isn't going to reverse course, it CAN'T or the whole house of cards collapses... money supply has to continue to increase (why else would we give ukraine all that money and have $1.7 trillion in federal spending) or $100 trillion in debt looks pretty unpayable

$5 per dozen even at the most reasonable places here in South OC, CA.

i hope it goes back to about $3 or $3.50?

otherwise, i will ditch scrambled eggs, even though I love them.

[d2bets]

$5 per dozen even at the most reasonable places here in South OC, CA.

i hope it goes back to about $3 or $3.50?

otherwise, i will ditch scrambled eggs, even though I love them.

Still not that expensive really. Even if you use 3 eggs, that's what, $1.25. What are you making instead that's cheaper?

[homie1975]

Still not that expensive really. Even if you use 3 eggs, that's what, $1.25. What are you making instead that's cheaper?

2er that is a great point.

at that price, eggs should be eaten every day.

cholesterol no longer an issue right?

but i digress.

What is your take on the market reaction to the first cool CPI report since 2020 ?

it is likely not enough to even begin a fed pivot.

[d2bets]

2er that is a great point.

at that price, eggs should be eaten every day.

cholesterol no longer an issue right?

but i digress.

What is your take on the market reaction to the first cool CPI report since 2020 ?

it is likely not enough to even begin a fed pivot.

I have no clue these days, but I am invested. Market looking ahead 6-9 months.

[Madison]

that still wouldn't mean it was transitory imho... eggs aren't going back down to 69 cents/dozen... there isn't a restaurant in the country that will lower menu prices, cars aren't going back to 8% below sticker (and those 2023 sticker prices are higher)

so yes there's a demand problem but look at gold prices, inflation isn't going to reverse course, it CAN'T or the whole house of cards collapses... money supply has to continue to increase (why else would we give ukraine all that money and have $1.7 trillion in federal spending) or $100 trillion in debt looks pretty unpayable

This. Something like $990 million per day in interest on the national debt. Went to Outback for lunch yesterday. What used to be $12 is now $20. Wifey gets a slice of carrot cake to go. $8 per 1/2 what the slice used to be. WE ARE NOT GOING BACK!!!

[Madison]

$5 per dozen even at the most reasonable places here in South OC, CA.

i hope it goes back to about $3 or $3.50?

otherwise, i will ditch scrambled eggs, even though I love them.

South OC? Oceanside?

[trobin31]

This is definitely the most bullish moves I’ve seen since bear market started, not sure how long we run, maybe a few weeks, I’d definitely look to get into cash once the Fed goes full pivot as we are likely going to run up into that announcement and then get the rug pull on some event or institutional collapse after everyone dives in head first to shallow pool

[homie1975]

South OC? Oceanside?

Madder
OC = Orange County, CA

there is also an Orange County in FL, NC and I believe NY !

[Rambuck]

Near term OTM blue chip calls are a decent bet. It ain't gonna last. We don't see sustained momentum until 2024

[homie1975]

the brief selloff this morning after the banks released cautious forward guidance was bought right back and the market is trading sideways today.

that is a pretty decent bullish sign. nothing to hang a hat on yet, but we it is something to feel somewhat positive about.

[Madison]

Madder
OC = Orange County, CA

there is also an Orange County in FL, NC and I believe NY !

Brother and long time friend in Oceanside.

[Madison]

the brief selloff this morning after the banks released cautious forward guidance was bought right back and the market is trading sideways today.

that is a pretty decent bullish sign. nothing to hang a hat on yet, but we it is something to feel somewhat positive about.

Agreed.

[homie1975]

Brother and long time friend in Oceanside.

cool little town, mostly military hang out there right? close to camp pendleton.

some nice eateries near the water down there in oceanside.

[trobin31]

We might be sukin n fukin until spring time

[ex50warrior]

Banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with pretty good numbers.

And Gold making a nice run too.

[homie1975]

Banks kicked off Q4 earnings season with pretty good numbers.

And Gold making a nice run too.

that was expected. when interests rates rise, banks are extremely profitable.

what is key, as usual, is the forward looking guidance.

[Madison]

cool little town, mostly military hang out there right? close to camp pendleton.

some nice eateries near the water down there in oceanside.

YEP, Friend former AF for 20+ years.

[ex50warrior]

that was expected. when interests rates rise, banks are extremely profitable.

what is key, as usual, is the forward looking guidance.

Yep, they were able to expand margins. But investment banking business was down because of the market downturn.
And they all tucked away more reserves for loan losses in case the economy weakens.

I own JPM and C.

[homie1975]

YEP, Friend former AF for 20+ years.

yes, Miramar Air base not far

[homie1975]

Yep, they were able to expand margins. But investment banking business was down because of the market downturn.
And they all tucked away more reserves for loan losses in case the economy weakens.

I own JPM and C.

I own JPM with you

[trobin31]

We’ve hit a lot of key bullish indicators on Bitcoin, getting long on your favorite hodling stock and adding on pullbacks, whether its mstr hive hut sos, mstr >40% short interest lol

null and void if we fall back under 18.8k BTC

[Slurry Pumper]

Another week up last week, and at this point how much can be left before the slide back down? Who knows, I bet Tuesday is another up type of day, but beyond that I can't tell how high things can get here in the near future. That usually mean that I should just hang out and take a look at the action in the coming week.

[Slurry Pumper]

Not a lot of action on this thread this week as the markets start to slide going into the weekend. I think it continues down and soon enough all the markets will be challenging the lows from last year.
Finally Gold is starting to move. Those past couple of years when I kept buying month after month is going to start paying off. I like everything coming out of the ground to some extent, and I don't see that trend changing. Actually see an acceleration

[d2bets]

Not a lot of action on this thread this week as the markets start to slide going into the weekend. I think it continues down and soon enough all the markets will be challenging the lows from last year.
Finally Gold is starting to move. Those past couple of years when I kept buying month after month is going to start paying off. I like everything coming out of the ground to some extent, and I don't see that trend changing. Actually see an acceleration

That would be something like a 12% down move from here. What precipitates that? Hotter inflation readings?

[Slurry Pumper]

That would be something like a 12% down move from here. What precipitates that? Hotter inflation readings?

I think the public realizes that the Fed isn't going to pause. It will continue to raise at .25 until we have something break. Inflation is coming down but coming down and stabilizing at 2% are 2 different things, and finally I think this Ukraine involvement is starting to swallow up more participants and any escalation will be bad for the markets.

[ex50warrior]

Sure hope you're right Slurry about a downturn. I'd like to do a bit of buying at lower prices.

[Poker_Beast]

Sure hope you're right Slurry about a downturn. I'd like to do a bit of buying at lower prices.

Ditto!

[homie1975]

ahhhh ye old timing the market

[trobin31]

More choppy this week but overall I remain a buyer of dips at least until spring or when a double top or new highs occur

my purple crayons with bite marks drew a bunch of wedges and broadening wedges on spx which tend to resolved higher

Russell I regard as a lead indicator has already broken out, retested the breakout and bounced on Friday. Btc as a leading indicator for tech is almost back in its giga trade range.

My base case is up 10-20% before the short of our lifetimes is upon us. most likely once Fed pivots, so might be more towards end of year unless some other global catastrophe decides to bless us sooner but charts tend to lead the news