Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**homie1975** · 02-26-23, 12:24 PM

big retail week with TGT and COST reporting.
other extremely important drivers as well.

Monday: workday. zoom.
Tuesday: target
Weds: lowes, salesforce, tesla (analyst mtg)
Thurs: Costco
Friday: 3 fed presidents will speak and could swing the market big either way going into next weekend.

**milwaukee mike** · 02-26-23, 02:05 PM

lowe's is one of those interesting ones... i always thought home improvement companies are beneficiaries when home equity lines are cheap and easy, and get way less profitable as rates go up and money is harder to get... low/hd have defied reality for me though, they're down from dec 2021 but not nearly as much as i expected

**trobin31** · 02-26-23, 08:30 PM

Hitting some exhaustion signals on the dollar and the few leading indicators I track are holding up nicely…probably gonna try to play a weekly lotto ticket

**Slurry Pumper** · 02-27-23, 08:22 AM

The SPY is trying to get back above the uptrending line created off of the low from October. Right now that line is valued at $398. Funny that is about where the futures is hanging out. It's a bull bear battle the morning so below or above the 398 spot after the 1st hour of trading will determine allot for me this morning.

**Snowball** · 02-27-23, 05:50 PM

check out NUGT vs DUST charts.

**Slurry Pumper** · 02-28-23, 08:36 AM

Here we are again but today I think we continue to bounce. I did buy those short term calls yesterday afternoon with the expectation of a rise.

**Slurry Pumper** · 02-28-23, 10:22 AM

Looking at a bounce here of the 50 DMA. If that doesn't happen things may fall apart a bit.

**milwaukee mike** · 02-28-23, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

check out NUGT vs DUST charts.

down 32% and down 23% for the year, if one is down the other should be up... i've said for years that these 2x/3x funds are a complete scam... they all eventually trend to 0 because of the math. they recalculate daily so it's a constant drip drip drip... go down 20% and you have to go up 25% to get back to even. or go up 25% and now if you go down 20% you're back to even

**d2bets** · 02-28-23, 12:12 PM

RIVN reports today. On a whim, I bought this morning at $18.80. Now $19.40. Somebody knows something?
Who owns this one?

**trobin31** · 02-28-23, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

down 32% and down 23% for the year, if one is down the other should be up... i've said for years that these 2x/3x funds are a complete scam... they all eventually trend to 0 because of the math. they recalculate daily so it's a constant drip drip drip... go down 20% and you have to go up 25% to get back to even. or go up 25% and now if you go down 20% you're back to even

Yes of course can’t hold leveraged etf for long periods but catching bottoms and tops pays off, already up 50% on a monthly expiration

**trobin31** · 02-28-23, 01:28 PM

Gold and metals have been correlating with risk assets so took a look at COIN and it looks like it’s curling up to go higher

**milwaukee mike** · 02-28-23, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Gold and metals have been correlating with risk assets so took a look at COIN and it looks like it’s curling up to go higher

i know i've said it before, but especially now with the world waking up to the fiat money scam, billions and billions of dollars for phony "wars" and climate nonsense... the beauty of gold/silver is holding the actual product.

i know that 20 years from now gold will be worth more in paper money than it is now. there's a good chance the usa doesn't even exist in the same form 20 years from now... just look what happened to other countries and their currencies when they committed the type of cultural suicide that the usa is committing.

mainstream media's argument is actually that the cia/fbi did nasty stuff in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, but nothing changed regulation-wise (except making it legal to use propaganda and lies on us soil), and nobody was punished, but it's a wild conspiracy to think they would do anything nasty now! lololol

yes i make it political but that's all tied in to the fall of the empire as we know it, pieces of paper with numbers on them are only worth actual goods and services when everyone believes they are

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-01-23, 06:43 AM

Gold has been on sale now for the last couple of years. It won't be that way forever. When it rolls it has to make up for the inflation we have been seeing so on a relative basis it will make huge gains although in reality it is the money that is the constant while all the fiat crumbles.

**d2bets** · 03-01-23, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i know i've said it before, but especially now with the world waking up to the fiat money scam, billions and billions of dollars for phony "wars" and climate nonsense... the beauty of gold/silver is holding the actual product.

i know that 20 years from now gold will be worth more in paper money than it is now. there's a good chance the usa doesn't even exist in the same form 20 years from now... just look what happened to other countries and their currencies when they committed the type of cultural suicide that the usa is committing.

mainstream media's argument is actually that the cia/fbi did nasty stuff in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s, but nothing changed regulation-wise (except making it legal to use propaganda and lies on us soil), and nobody was punished, but it's a wild conspiracy to think they would do anything nasty now! lololol

yes i make it political but that's all tied in to the fall of the empire as we know it, pieces of paper with numbers on them are only worth actual goods and services when everyone believes they are

There has never been a country like USA.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-02-23, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

The last few days the SPY has been bouncing off the 50 DMA making some bottoming candles, so that has me believing there is a rebound in the cards here. This morning a break below the 50 DMA make spark a fake out operation with a quick drop to the trend line from the ultimate high that is angling down and today sitting at $392. After the phony numbers this morning whatever they are, be on the look out for a collapse then a possible rescue right around $392. If we are down around the $392 this morning, I'm unloading some of those Puts I got which I may buy back if price cuts through the trend line which is unlikely.
Or the phony numbers could just goose the markets from another test of the 50 DMA, and its off to the races for the weekend.

Well today the markets go to the trend line I mentioned last week, and as I thought it triggered a rally. I flip about 66% of those Puts that expire in May, and bought short term calls that expire Friday, sold again about 66% of that and walked away a happy dude. Then I flipped the rest of the 33% of those puts for the same thing only later in the summer. Tomorrow if for some reason we see the markets back down toward the trend line, it will not be the same. You can bet a failing situation of lower prices if that happens. I think we have a rally situation happening though with a floating formation in to the weekend.

**ex50warrior** · 03-02-23, 09:17 PM

Slurry, so today was an "outside-day?" Bullish?? I'm struggling to get the hang of technical signals.

**milwaukee mike** · 03-03-23, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

There has never been a country like USA.

it was the greatest country in the world for a couple hundred years

a good run, but now it's becoming a failed experiment with no common morals, culture, values... think of our major cities where 1/2 the population doesn't even speak english... can you imagine the residents of tokyo not speaking japanese? lol

**d2bets** · 03-03-23, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

it was the greatest country in the world for a couple hundred years

a good run, but now it's becoming a failed experiment with no common morals, culture, values... think of our major cities where 1/2 the population doesn't even speak english... can you imagine the residents of tokyo not speaking japanese? lol

We have retained our system of laws and justice. It is generally strong. The rest is noise and comedy fodder. We'll be fine here. Biggest risk is mass environmental/health disaster.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-03-23, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by ex50warrior

Slurry, so today was an "outside-day?" Bullish?? I'm struggling to get the hang of technical signals.

I think they do call this an outside day. The daily candle is both below and above the day before it. The bigger point is the price came down to my trend line. It is hard to get an exact price on these so in the general area is close enough. If you look below you can see the line I have pointed to as the spot. Then watch out because we are bumping up against another trend line generated from the October lows and the higher lows since then.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-03-23, 10:51 AM

By the way, above my marked trend line and I'm short term bullish, below and I'm bearish.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-03-23, 03:01 PM

Another big float up day, SPY could get to 406 if it can get above 404.

**Snowball** · 03-03-23, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

Yes of course can’t hold leveraged etf for long periods but catching bottoms and tops pays off, already up 50% on a monthly expiration

that's the skinny

**Snowball** · 03-03-23, 04:05 PM

looks like SPY is attempting to fill those gaps but 409-410 could hold for resistance.
Thus it may creep there from this 404...

**milwaukee mike** · 03-05-23, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

We have retained our system of laws and justice. It is generally strong. The rest is noise and comedy fodder. We'll be fine here. Biggest risk is mass environmental/health disaster.

just in the past year my dad has had his car stolen TWICE, and not a single person has had charges filed against them, even though there is video evidence. walmart just closed all their stores in portland, walgreens and others have closed (or are closing) most stores in san francisco... so there's certainly not "common laws and justice" when multi-billion dollar companies can't even operate in certain cities because of their lack of a justice system

**topgame85** · 03-06-23, 08:49 PM

Market seems very overpriced. Not to say there won't be a couple more runs through the trading range before heading South, but things are not great. Affordability has been seriously diminished for half the country and the other half will become fatigued with shopping and travel soon enough. I admit I have contributed to the inflation problem. Buying my staples without even looking at the tag, eating out 2-3 times a week when it is always $80-200 and getting ready to go on a 15 day Euro Vacation that will ultimately cost about $10k for my wife, daughter and I. That said, this trip is my last stand and I hear a lot of my Lower-Upper Middle income friends are in the same place. We all YOLO'd and this Summer Vacation Season is it. Wages are not keeping up with daily needs, so we are charging away.

**topgame85** · 03-06-23, 09:01 PM

In my business, I see a huge transaction volume fall off. 15-20% lower than last year. That said, revenue is up 10-15%. It is all price increases. So far, it seems, companies are getting by taxing the people who can afford higher prices at similar margins. Price up big but many buyers trading down or walking away altogether. Well to do folks spending and some middles stretching with credit to keep up, won't last forever or end well.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-07-23, 07:54 AM

The SPY stalled out yesterday at the 20 DMA, which happens to also be a spot pin pointed on the chart I put up on Friday (405ish). My 2 favorite indicators had a down day on the IWM and Dow Transports. Its also turn around Tuesday, and our 'ole pal The Fed is giving testimony today to congress. I expect him to not tel the truth of course, but it kind of looks like a pull back may be on the docket here. Given my prior statements, I'm bullish above the "Trend Line" I identified Friday, but that doesn't mean a fall to that line isn't possible. If the SPY does, that is a pretty good opportunity I see there and 1 to look out for.
On the other hand playing the referee, the QQQs and the SMHs are making a pretty decent looking bullish flag pattern with the weekly charts which cannot be ignored, and if that happens the SPY will be dragged up with it. My advice, watch the QQQs, under $292.25 is a sign an or signal that it may be breaking down. Another closer number is $187 on the IWM that is yet another symbol of break down action coming. How about the dow transports you say? Well that number to look out for me is 14300ish. All of these numbers together are my numbers I'll be looking for if things are going to fall apart.
On the up side, the Qs above $314 represents a break out area, $256.50 for the SMH is another spot of interest. $37.10 for the XLF for you financial fans. Of course the SPY is looking for $420. All of these levels would represent a break out from a range.

**Snowball** · 03-07-23, 09:46 AM

It's all BS quants, insider info and of course FED. There are no markets. Just FED.

If Fed sits, mkt will rally but not past year's highs, because it will need GUIDANCE for that.
Guidance being the expectation that the FED won't raise rates in 2-3 months again.

None of the so-called data is WHY the FED is copiously hawkish. The real reason the FED is copiously hawkish
is geopolitical losses. Shrinkage for US companies and banks worldwide. US Federal Debt being unsustainable,
no end in sight to that, and the chances of conflict. Dollar hegemony is taking BLOWS that will last decades.

This country's politicians demanded the FED print money until the dollar became CRAP, then they messed up our
relations with major powers, and now we're losing our hegemony and our own fiscal sustainability.

FED might have to go over 10% before this is over.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-07-23, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

It's all BS quants, insider info and of course FED. There are no markets. Just FED.

If Fed sits, mkt will rally but not past year's highs, because it will need GUIDANCE for that.
Guidance being the expectation that the FED won't raise rates in 2-3 months again.

None of the so-called data is WHY the FED is copiously hawkish. The real reason the FED is copiously hawkish
is geopolitical losses. Shrinkage for US companies and banks worldwide. US Federal Debt being unsustainable,
no end in sight to that, and the chances of conflict. Dollar hegemony is taking BLOWS that will last decades.

This country's politicians demanded the FED print money until the dollar became CRAP, then they messed up our
relations with major powers, and now we're losing our hegemony and our own fiscal sustainability.

FED might have to go over 10% before this is over.

I think the World is going to move away from the dollar and eventually the U.S. will not have this huge advantage to run the world's currency or better yet debt system. A major mistake from last year's sanctions to Russia is only speeding up this scenario.

Say goodby to all the great living from the last 50 years people. The U.S. had a good run but now it's the down sloping ride. I'll be watching over the next decade for flailing idiots trying to capture what once was.
Actually not true, I think I will retire in about 5 years anyway and buy a sailboat to sail the south seas. I was looking into how far in the middle of bum fuk nowhere you can be and how technology can connect you to the world. What can I say, I don't think I can give up football. Everything else sure I could care less, but I do need to watch football every week during the season.

**trobin31** · 03-07-23, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

I think the World is going to move away from the dollar and eventually the U.S. will not have this huge advantage to run the world's currency or better yet debt system. A major mistake from last year's sanctions to Russia is only speeding up this scenario.

Say goodby to all the great living from the last 50 years people. The U.S. had a good run but now it's the down sloping ride. I'll be watching over the next decade for flailing idiots trying to capture what once was.
Actually not true, I think I will retire in about 5 years anyway and buy a sailboat to sail the south seas. I was looking into how far in the middle of bum fuk nowhere you can be and how technology can connect you to the world. What can I say, I don't think I can give up football. Everything else sure I could care less, but I do need to watch football every week during the season.

I’m retiring in 2026.
So far I’m thinking Jamaica, Costa Rica or BumFuk Montana.
Ideally I’d like to be in southern Italy or Philippines but like you said being able to watch US sports at reasonable hours has to be factored in.

**Slurry Pumper** · 03-08-23, 07:01 AM

Playing the ref here today but playing the downside still. Only IWM ended up at my spot for concern. I got just below SPY 398 for next leg lower today. We had better than average volume today so I'll hang onto these PUTS today as a wait and see. I'm looking to see what happens if the SPY gets to 390. Below that mark on my trend line and it may be a ski slope black diamond style run. I'm still skeptical above that spot however and a spring back north is completely possible so keep a breast of the hourly situation.

**milwaukee mike** · 03-08-23, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by trobin31

I’m retiring in 2026.
So far I’m thinking Jamaica, Costa Rica or BumFuk Montana.
Ideally I’d like to be in southern Italy or Philippines but like you said being able to watch US sports at reasonable hours has to be factored in.

good luck guys... nothing better than retirement! what am i gonna do today? hmm... weather not so warm so i'll probably go to the casino, then creed 3. the drinking at 9am sometimes is pretty stupid but oh well lol

good report by VRA this morning, wrote off most of the goodwill so now they have a clean balance sheet, $8/share in cash/inventory with no debt... and expect to make 40-50 cents/share this year. so it's an $8-10 stock like i knew all along

**milwaukee mike** · 03-08-23, 09:04 AM

another point about the decline of america, i was in the brookfield square mall yesterday, and here's a guy that totally smells like pot walking a pretty mean-looking pit bull through the mall

nobody even seems to care about anyone else's safety or concerns, that's why northridge mall here closed and mayfair/brookfield are on the same path... i know plenty of affluent people that refuse to even shop in person anymore because of all the freaking bums ruining everything

anyone that thinks this country is still great, come with me to the casino full of bums, and then go with me to the movie where people are talking and playing with their phones the whole time. do that in almost any major city, not just milwaukee... country has already been lost, it's just too difficult for most people to admit it

**Snowball** · 03-08-23, 02:49 PM

I agree mike but lost my post.

check out TOPS, KIQ, NM

**milwaukee mike** · 03-09-23, 02:56 PM

lgf.a looking cheap here at 9.60

really terrible action in banks/vno/etc on the si/sivb fallout