Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[RoyBacon]

You mean that your children will be wealthy, right? Lol.

You ever hear the saying you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink?

Dude you never need to sell. That's why index funds will outperform you. If you get to retirement age say 50 years old and you have say $8 million you can borrow half at 1% and never pay federal or state income taxes. And & Or throw in some dividend stocks and average 3% and now you have $240k a year in income.

Ask your financial guy and see what he says.

[Goat Milk]

You ever hear the saying you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink?

Dude you never need to sell. That's why index funds will outperform you. If you get to retirement age say 50 years old and you have say $8 million you can borrow half at 1% and never pay federal or state income taxes. And & Or throw in some dividend stocks and average 3% and now you have $240k a year in income.

Ask your financial guy and see what he says.

Appreciate the insight brother. Very helpful.

[homie1975]

Rule #2 is a tad hard to understand.

When I say you never sell I mean never. Your heirs will inherit your portfolio. You say gawd dam Roy that ain't no fun! And I say well it ain't as fun as 100 virgins but it's pretty close.

If you never sell you will accumulate massive gains over your lifetime, many, many millions of dollars. Want to spend some? Borrow at margin rates, currently 1% at Schwab. When you die your taxes are forgiven, unless your estate is over $22m.

Indexes never sell. That's their sole advantage(yes, I know they re-balance on occasion). Match that and only buy companies headed in the right direction and you will easily be wealthy beyond your wildest dreams eventually.

okay i admittedly did not read your whole post but now i just did. twice.

wow, i did not even think about a lot of this but then again i am 45 and have a ways to go build into that kind of wealth.

great info ROYer and thank you.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK thanks from the investment crowd. Good advice there. For me I'm a trader an will always be a trader. I regularly buy and sell the same day. Sure I hold long term positions which I share here but they really don't seem to be working out as planned and I get bored of them while I wait for the gains. They do count in my portfolio and thus I can leverage their value to day trade so not all is unrealized.

Then every year I take some off the table in a big grand scheme to make a gold domino tumble pattern on the day I croak. Then the kids can have that free and clear of any government intervention.

So here's how its going to play out today. yesterday the QQQ ran on up and it looks like it may make a new high point as opposed to a lower high, that is bullish short term. The SMH is in the same boat. SPY is looking like the same thing is going to happen while the IWM is the weak one in the bunch of positive signs.
Then there is a Dow Transports that are falling below its 20 DMA yesterday and that is my canary in the coal mine. Not saying that dark days are coming but just being aware of it. Next week I see the market floating up into the holiday. Not much to trade against but maybe a swing trade on a Upro or QQQs.

[RoyBacon]

okay i admittedly did not read your whole post but now i just did. twice.

wow, i did not even think about a lot of this but then again i am 45 and have a ways to go build into that kind of wealth.

great info ROYer and thank you.

Like you and like Slurry I am a trader myself. Long term for me is 2 months. You can do both but it takes discipline.

I've told the story of my pool guy many times. 15 years ago he inherited 45 shares of AMZN from his dying father with two words of death bed advice; never sell.

The shares were worth $1k at the time and are now worth $150k. And how much tax has he paid on this gain? $0. He could get a check at anytime for $75k tax free and pay a nominal 1% interest rate(secured vs the stock).

So be like the pool guy. Invest $10k a year divided into 5 different stocks. Let the losers lose and the winners soar untouched by human miscalculation.

[trobin31]

Like you and like Slurry I am a trader myself. Long term for me is 2 months. You can do both but it takes discipline.

I've told the story of my pool guy many times. 15 years ago he inherited 45 shares of AMZN from his dying father with two words of death bed advice; never sell.

The shares were worth $1k at the time and are now worth $150k. And how much tax has he paid on this gain? $0. He could get a check at anytime for $75k tax free and pay a nominal 1% interest rate(secured vs the stock).

So be like the pool guy. Invest $10k a year divided into 5 different stocks. Let the losers lose and the winners soar untouched by human miscalculation.

How are you getting 1% rates on margin?

[chico2663]

Roy...you sure your a Kennedy ? They have the same philosophy on propetty

[Slurry Pumper]

OK so today the market isn't just in float mode. The SPY is at a point where they can kill thme into the end of the day. I don't think that is what is going to happen. I'm willing to take a trade on the SPY now and bail if they start to close 10 minute candles under 414. There will probably be a rip you a new one rally going into the close toady as there usually is. The Trick, Trap, Fool and Fuk You Crew is out to make you think it might fall apart today, but I'm not on board with that yet.

[trobin31]

Zero doubt Fresh New Highs in 2021
$ACCO $ALTO $ASO $BTC $CSIQ $ETH $JD $IGT $LB $LVS $M $MT $MU $NEXA $OIH $ONEW $T $URG $WBA $WW $X

Take a screenshot

[KVB]

Good stuff recently in the thread, with viewpoints from both sides of the market participants.

A combo of two will make the market savvy a happy man no matter the market direction...up, down, or flat...and no matter the time frame.

I've been busy with the sports markets, using my tracking Funds to buy and sell in and out of the sports. I can say this, MLB contrarian markets have been on a run and may be giving it up, while the NBA had some excellent, excellent short term buy opportunities all the time being in a clearly, multiseason down market.

What I do in sports is exactly what I do in stocks. But I assure you, trying to do them both and being able to switch from stock mode early to sports mode late is so fukkin' difficult. Probably why I break constantly for the Forum.

So I've been holding in stocks and trading the sports, including shorting the spread sports, like buying the opposite than the NBA trigger.

It's crazy no matter what you're doing, when trying trade. I can have 6 am 1 am days easily, including international markets.

And now crypto is 24 hours a day.

Unreal anymore.

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok all of the indexes need to get going here or there will be a bearish sign of the QQQ, SMH, not being able to get above the 20 DMA for the daily close. The SMH giving up the 20 and the QQQs losing o nthe day and giving up the 50 would be a bad sign.
On the SPY front however, it isn't bad but right now it is right at the 20 DMA, and the IWM made gains today but is still hanging out just under the 20DMA.

This last half hour is the time to move for the bulls.

[Slurry Pumper]

Good stuff recently in the thread, with viewpoints from both sides of the market participants.

A combo of two will make the market savvy a happy man no matter the market direction...up, down, or flat...and no matter the time frame.

I've been busy with the sports markets, using my tracking Funds to buy and sell in and out of the sports. I can say this, MLB contrarian markets have been on a run and may be giving it up, while the NBA had some excellent, excellent short term buy opportunities all the time being in a clearly, multiseason down market.

What I do in sports is exactly what I do in stocks. But I assure you, trying to do them both and being able to switch from stock mode early to sports mode late is so fukkin' difficult. Probably why I break constantly for the Forum.

So I've been holding in stocks and trading the sports, including shorting the spread sports, like buying the opposite than the NBA trigger.

It's crazy no matter what you're doing, when trying trade. I can have 6 am 1 am days easily, including international markets.

And now crypto is 24 hours a day.

Unreal anymore.

I hear ya about the switching between the sports and stock market. I only play the NFL market, and during the fall it is hell with all of the work that is needed to study both on a daily basis. I can't imagine trying to break down a baseball market on a daily basis along with trading stocks on the same day. Even when I think about it I spend most of my time just sitting here waiting for the set up to come to me. For some reason when I add sports, I expect things to happen on a quicker time scale and I start to force trades and thus lose.

[KVB]

...Even when I think about it I spend most of my time just sitting here waiting for the set up to come to me. For some reason when I add sports, I expect things to happen on a quicker time scale and I start to force trades and thus lose.

Treemendous words here^^^.

I just posted this in the stock thread...

...Should have taken the shot.

Man I've been having bettor's regret lately, by not buying some bets I've liked. That's because I am disciplined and need metrics to line up. So to have regret shows that I may have patience being compromised and if that continues it can compromise discipline.

Could start a whole thread about this but one of the key things to gambling is understanding what you do wrong and fixing it. To understand what might be going wrong before it gets wrong is the level I play.

That's not an ego thing, it's just the reality of what I posted.

You must always drop in to see what condition your condition is in...

You understand the patience required, and even so, it's tough to do in sports.

I understand it too, and no matter how good we are, we can get caught slipping.

Many will verify I have tremendous patience when it comes to sports, but I'll admit I was having trouble last year having that patience with stocks.

[KVB]

Technically still in range, lost six in a row so "due" for a bounce off support, but overall that last bull run at the end of last seasooin and beginning of this one seems in jeopardy..

[RoyBacon]

Roy...you sure your a Kennedy ? They have the same philosophy on propetty

That's true. And boy did that pay off.

[Slurry Pumper]

Technically still in range, lost six in a row so "due" for a bounce off support, but overall that last bull run at the end of last seasooin and beginning of this one seems in jeopardy..

You're trading in a range there for sure. You have 3 hits off of support so lets see if you are just coming back to test a former support area before a rocket ride or (hopefully not) a break down where your next level of support is at about the 2.5 to 3 level.

So my day trade of the SPY going into the close of the week didn't really pan out that well. It didn't lose but the pop only made it to 416.25 from the starting position of 415, so I didn't sell. Then in the last 30 minutes the price declined as I'm sure people were taking profits from Wednesday's low. I decided to hold my 200 shares of UPRO for next week. Yeah i could of and probably should of took the dollar per share that was offered to me before the beat down into the close but I didn't follow my own rules.

What can go wrong, Israel and the Hamas group are almost friends or at least stopped bombing each other. China is done with the Bitcoin beat down so that market can rebound and stop effecting the overall market so much as it has been doing this week. People don't even know that the housing market had a decline in the last 3 months just like I thought it would, but the inflation is continuing. Next week is a lead into the hoilday, so after our initial possible beat down on Monday or Tuesday, the market will turn around as usual and float into the weekend next week.

So on the dip I may add to my UPRO stock holding. Just wanted to say a word to all of the buy the dip crowd. Some of the indicators I look at are showing signs of "Hangman" candles on the weekly chart. Check 'em out, the SPY and IWM have 3 of them in a row, although the last one for the IWM isn't really a hangman more like a doji, but don't bitch and spoil the thought. Then there is the QQQ and SMH, I'd say the 4 of the last 6 weeks have hangman like aspect to the candle so watch out.

[RoyBacon]

How are you getting 1% rates on margin?

Call Schwab and ask them. Interactive will even beat that. I have 1.25% with Fidelity.

[trobin31]

Jeezus, Gold looks insanely bullish, one chart after another, any thoughts here, ready to pound

[trobin31]

I loaded up on some GLD shares, I’ll check out some leveraged deals Monday

[RoyBacon]

I was screaming GLD and bought the farm at $165. I just sold a bunch yesterday at $175 and it's moved even higher.

I still have a lot of GLD and physical. I think gold makes new highs this year and into and through next year. Short term I think it's a bit extended but that's just a guess.

I bought 100 June '22 GLD 165's at 10 and swore I'd hold them a year. A month later they were at $17 and I sold them. I'm my own worse enemy.

[KVB]

You're trading in a range there for sure. You have 3 hits off of support so lets see if you are just coming back to test a former support area before a rocket ride or (hopefully not) a break down where your next level of support is at about the 2.5 to 3 level...

The Fund triggered the Yankees last night and we got the bounce in the range...



Here are today's plays, with the Texas win we end up above that second support line.

The market is volatile, but it's rangebound and that head and shoulders gets further in the past.

916	22-May	TEX +157	1.57
928	22-May	PHI +119
		Sat	1.57

[Madison]

i'm going to enjoy some of it for myself. my children are 10 and 8 years from HS graduation. Papa is going to enjoy some of the spoils. i don't want to die *too rich* LOLOL

Hope you have a 529 or some plan for college $$. One can only imagine what it will cost 10 years from now. I feel lucky (not necessarily at the time) that I have very successful child who graduated college circa 10 years ago and I bore the brunt of the $$ responsibility.

[Goat Milk]

Hope you have a 529 or some plan for college $$. One can only imagine what it will cost 10 years from now. I feel lucky (not necessarily at the time) that I have very successful child who graduated college circa 10 years ago and I bore the brunt of the $$ responsibility.

Just make sure your kids study hard and get straight a's and they'll get a full ride merit scholarship to a lot of schools. Investing in your kid to go to harvard undergrad is not a smart financial decision. these college are businesses and they will fleece you. college is also overrated as f. waste of money. go pay 70 grand a year to come out making 50k. lol. joke. all the richest ppl i know never even finished high school. they're all multi millionaires.

[homie1975]

Hope you have a 529 or some plan for college $$. One can only imagine what it will cost 10 years from now. I feel lucky (not necessarily at the time) that I have very successful child who graduated college circa 10 years ago and I bore the brunt of the $$ responsibility.

i opted for No 529 plan because i found the investment options too restrictive.

i control my own portfolio because i believe i can grow it bigger and better than the 529 plan so fingers crossed the trend continues the next 10Y. when i say "trend" i don't mean the market trend - i mean my ability to beat the indexes buy opening positions in beaten down stocks and averaging down when current holds getting beat down, only to see them run later on..........

example DPZ which i have owned since last year but my buddy bolted out at a small loss. it finally broke out recently and he regrets selling. i just stood firm and did not budge.

bad example PLUG. i am down 50% but already averaged down twice so i am not moving now. will wait 5Y and then reassess.

[KVB]

[PlayzDont]

Jeezus, Gold looks insanely bullish, one chart after another, any thoughts here, ready to pound

Gold will never go down and is always a great buy

[Madison]

Just make sure your kids study hard and get straight a's and they'll get a full ride merit scholarship to a lot of schools. Investing in your kid to go to harvard undergrad is not a smart financial decision. these college are businesses and they will fleece you. college is also overrated as f. waste of money. go pay 70 grand a year to come out making 50k. lol. joke. all the richest ppl i know never even finished high school. they're all multi millionaires.

Just make sure your kids study hard and get straight a's and they'll get a full ride merit scholarship to a lot of schools.

Not true for the middleclass (I'll be PC and leave my other thoughts to myself). I personally got caught in the middle. National Honor Society, 4.0 daughter got $5K per year to a 35K per year school. Despite my 20K per year owed circa 50K in loans at graduation. Full ride only goes to a few "select" few.

[Madison]

i opted for No 529 plan because i found the investment options too restrictive.

i control my own portfolio because i believe i can grow it bigger and better than the 529 plan so fingers crossed the trend continues the next 10Y. when i say "trend" i don't mean the market trend - i mean my ability to beat the indexes buy opening positions in beaten down stocks and averaging down when current holds getting beat down, only to see them run later on..........

example DPZ which i have owned since last year but my buddy bolted out at a small loss. it finally broke out recently and he regrets selling. i just stood firm and did not budge.

bad example PLUG. i am down 50% but already averaged down twice so i am not moving now. will wait 5Y and then reassess.

I did same. I financed 20K a year and always kept a carrot (the balance) in front for motivation. After many lessons and some youthful mistakes I self financed her out of 7% loan down to 2.5%. Once self-sufficient I ate the balance.

Best of luck!!

[trobin31]

Cruise line, NCLH for me this week, swing calls to 31

[KVB]

You're trading in a range there for sure. You have 3 hits off of support so lets see if you are just coming back to test a former support area before a rocket ride or (hopefully not) a break down where your next level of support is at about the 2.5 to 3 level...

The difference this time over other tests of support is that we now have a declining set of SMA's.

But there is support...

[Snowball]

it's deja vu all over again ?

[BOA12]

Brother chico says hello, though still in a hell hole.

[BOA12]

The difference this time over other tests of support is that we now have a declining set of SMA's.

But there is support...

Says U R 1 of the good guyz; can't disagree, KVB.

[trobin31]

it's deja vu all over again ?

Too much liquidity IMO, BkofAma came out and said Americans have 3x more money in the bank than before pandemic. Unless you get massive collusion from Banks to short(not out of realm of possibilities), there are many more Archegos out there or black swan event I don’t see how the amount of capital on the sidelines and coming from the Fed doesn’t keep this afloat at least until September.

[Slurry Pumper]

So yesterday was a fairly good day in all indexes but with no volume. This means just like a stripper at the club, the market will be slowly grinding her way to prosperity for the remainder of the week. There are a few things that can toss a roll of quarters on the stage instead of a twenty like housing numbers but I don't see anyone giving a shyt this week. Maybe next week but not this week. We are all happy to go maskless now that the plandemic is running out of steam.
I'm still holding onto my 200 shares of UPRO and will probably keep it until around 3:30 on Friday the way things are going. I'm still slightly short on the IWM, and QQQs. I'll turn and go bullish if they can take out the highs, if not, I'll be hitting it pretty hard in the upcoming month.
Also picked up some RCL yesterday morning and will probably exit that today sometime unless it has legs today like it did yesterday.